4-Load Forecasting.ppt [Compatibility Mode].pdf

The presentation is about load forecasting of a given settlement by determining base load for individual households and other premises, aggregating them while applying coincidental factor and determining future growth.

1. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
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CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT
LAMP TYPE POWER LUMINOUS FLUX ENERGY EFFICIENCY LIFETIM E
W lm lm/W hours
Incandescent 60 660 11 1,000
CFL 14 740 52 10,000
LED 12 810 67 30,000
LAMP TYPE POWER LAMP COST ENERGY COST TOTAL COST
IN 10 YEARS IN 10 YEARS IN 10 YEARS
W EUR EUR EUR
Incandescent 60 10 72 82
CFL 14 9 17 26
LED 12 10 14 24
TECHNICIAL COMPARISON OF LIGHTING TECHNOLOGIES
COST COMPARISON OF LIGHTING TECHNOLOGIES
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT - 1

2. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
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___________________________________________________ __________________
___________________________________________________ _________________
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT
COMPARISON OF LAMP TYPES (1000 H/YEAR)
LAMP TYPE POWER, W LUMINOUS
FLUX, lm
ENERGY
EFFICIENCY,
LIFETIME, LAMP
COST IN
10
YEARS,
EUR
ENERGY
COST IN
10
YEARS,
EUR
TOTAL
COST IN
10
YEARS,
EURlm/W hours
Incandescent 660 8260
11 1,000 10 72
CFL 14 740
52 10,000 9 17
26
LED lamp 12 810
67 30,000 10 14
24

3. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
___________________________________________________ __________________
___________________________________________________ _________________
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT - 2
FRIDGE WASHING TV
MACHINE
From 1990 to today 60% 30%
From 2005 to today 40%
REDUCTION IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION

4. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
___________________________________________________ __________________
___________________________________________________ _________________
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT - 3

5. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
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FORECASTING METHODOLOGY
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT
SPECIFIC
CONSUMPTION
GDP growth
Tariff changes
NUMBER OF
CONSUMERS
Population growth
Electr. programs
GDP growth
Population growth
Electr. programs
Domestic Low Usage Tariff (D1)
General Usage Tariff (T1)
SPECIFIC
CONSUMPTION
NUMBER OF
CONSUMERS
GDP growth
Population growth
SPECIFIC
CONSUMPTION
NUMBER OF
CONSUMERS
LV Max Demand Usage Tariff (T2)
AGGREGATED
VILLAGE
DOMESTIC
CONSUMPTION
AGGREGATED
VILLAGE
COMMERCIAL
CONSUMPTION
AGGREGATED
VILLAGE LV
INDUSTRIAL
CONSUMPTION
AGGREGATED
WARD
DOMESTIC
CONSUMPTION
AGGREGATED
WARD
COMMERCIAL
CONSUMPTION
AGGREGATED
WARD
LV
INDUSTRIAL
CONSUMPTION
AGGREGATED
WARD LEVEL
SALES
SPECIFIC
HV
INDUSTRIAL
PROJECTS
SYSTEM
LOSSES
GENERATION
REQUIREMENT
TRANSFER
OF OFF-GRID
LOADS

6. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
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ECONOMETRIC MODELLING - 1
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT

7. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
___________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________ _
___________________________________________________ _________________
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING - 2
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT

8. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
___________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________ _
___________________________________________________ _________________
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING - 3
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT

9. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS
___________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________ _
___________________________________________________ _________________
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING - 5
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT

10. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
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DETERMINANTS OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
IN RURAL AREAS
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT
The determinants of electricity consumption growth in rural areas are:
•Population growth with migrationand family size development;
•Generaleconomic growthand contribution of different economic
sectors;
•Electricity tariff and itscompetitiveness against other energy forms;
•Penetrationof electrical appliances andtechnology development;
•Ruralelectrification programsand available non-commercial sector
financing.

11. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
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HISTORY OF KEY DETERMINANTS
OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT
Annual population
growth in Tanzania.
Percentage of rural
´population in Tanzania.
GDP/capita growth percentage
in Tanzania.

12. New Technologies in Electrical Design and Construction Techniques
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ESTIMATION OF ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
IN RURAL VILLAGES
CONSULTANCY SERVICES FOR VILLAGE ELECTRIFICATION INTIATIVE
UNDER BACKBONE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENT PROJECT
The estimate for the initial electricity consumption in thevillages has been calculated as follows:
•The number of household consumers has been based on the existing households in the core
village and the sub-villages, assuming that80% of the households will be connected when the
household has to pay only the VAT portion of the normal TANESCO connection charge;
•The number of other consumers (public, commercial, water pumps, grain mills) have been
concluded based on thevillage surveys;
•The specific consumption for each customer type has been estimated based on theappliance
penetration and usage hours;
•The peak demand has been calculated by adding the sub-loadstogether;
•The peak demand after 10 years, which is the horizon for sizing the transformers, is calculated
by applying thecoincidence factorof each consumer type and the estimated annual demand
growth;
•The annual electricity consumption has been calculated from the initial year by applying the
annual growth percentage.