6. Models for Sustainable Development.ppt

Models for Sustainable Development

1. Sustainability means:
To Sustain
To hold
To keep in existence
To support
To endorse without failing or yielding
To maintain
To supply with necessities or nourishment
To prevent from falling bellow of a given threshold of health
or vitality

2. Sustainable Development
WCED, 1987 (World Commission on Environment and development):
also known as Brundtlandreport defined Sustainable development as:
“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of
the present without compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs”
Sustainability is the foundation for today’s leading global framework for
international cooperation—the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development and itsSustainable Development Goals(SDGs).

3. Sustainable Development Goals
The Sustainable Development Goals comprise a global agenda to
endpoverty, protectthe planet, and ensureall people enjoy peace and
prosperity.
Adopted by all United NationsMember Statesin 2015, the 17 Sustainable
Development Goals—or SDGsor Global Goals as they are sometimes
called—have 169 targets that countries are attempting to reach by 2030 at
the latest. This is why the Goals arealso referred to as the 2030 Agenda,
which countries resolved to undertake with "bold and transformative steps
which are urgently needed to shift the world onto a sustainable and resilient
path. As we embark on this collective journey, we pledge that no one will be
left behind."
The goals and targets are universal, meaning they apply to all countries
around the world, not just developing countries. Reaching the goals
requires action on all fronts—governments, businesses, civil society, and
people everywhere have a role to play.
The 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda, and the 17 SDGs that
underpin it, recognisethat the natural world and its life-giving services must
be urgently protected if we are to fulfil the needs of nine billion people by
2050.

5. Sustainability is an idea widely used as a concept; rarely is it quantitatively
defined.
The concept of environmental sustainability seems to be based on the
concept of sustainable yield that was first used in German forestry
during the late 18th and early 19th centuries.
The concept of sustainable yield is one of matching periodic harvests to the
rate of biological growth—that is, harvesting without diminishing the forests
themselves or undermining their long-termnability to regenerate.
In its simplest form, sustainable resource use is constrained by supply and
demand.
In Figure 28.2a , the box represents the resource—for example, water,
trees, or fish that is being exploited.
The arrow leading into the box represent the rate at which the resource is
being supplied—the rate of recharge of a lake or reservoir, the rate of tree
growth in a forest or plantation, or the rate of population growth of
the target fish species.
The arrow going out of the box represents the rate at which the resource is
being harvested—the rate of water use, the harvest rate of trees, or the rate
at which fish are being caught

6. Simply put, for the exploitation of the resource to be sustainable, the rate at which the
resource is being used (consumption or harvest rate) must not exceed the rate at
which the resource is being supplied (replacement or regeneration rate). Otherwise,
the quantity of resources declines through time ( Figure 28.2b ).

7. (a) The amount of resource
available at any time (green
box) is a function of the
difference between the supply
rate (green arrow) and the
consumption
rate (red arrow).
(b) If the consumption rate is
less than the supply
rate, the amount of resource will
increase.
If the consumption rate
exceeds the supply rate, the
amount of resources available
will decline.
Sustainable resource use
depends on the consumption
rate not exceeding the supply
rate
A simple model of resource use

8. Trees in a forest plantation are an excellent example for understanding
sustainability. After seedlings are planted, a period of time is required for
trees to grow ( Figure 28.4a ).
When the biomass of trees reaches a certain level, the forest or
plantation is harvested.
The amount of resource (tree biomass) harvested per unit time is called
the yield . After the harvest, a period of time is required for new trees to
grow and the amount of resource to return to the level of the previous
harvest. This period of time is called the rotation period (or harvest
interval ).
If the objective is to ensure a similar yield at each harvest, termed
sustained yield ,then sufficient time must be allowed between harvests
(the rotation period) for the resource to recover to preharvest levels.
If the rotation period is not sufficient to allow the forest stand to recover to
preharvest levels, then the yield will diminish in successive harvests (
Figure 28.4b ). As we will see in our discussion of agriculture, forestry,
and fisheries in the following sections, many of the conflicts over long-
term sustainable use of resources center on maintaining a sustainable
yield.

9. To achieve sustainable yield, sufficient time must be allowed between
harvests (rotation time) for biomass to return to preharvest levels. Rotation
time will depend on the growth rate of the species and site conditions that
influence forest productivity.
(b) If the rotation time is reduced, sufficient time is not allowed for the forest
stand to recover (grow) to preharvest levels, and the subsequent yield will
decline. The result is that the harvest rate exceeds the resource regeneration
rate (as shown in Figure 28.2 ), and the quantity of resource declines through
time

10. In this simple model of sustainable resource use, it is assumed that the
resource is renewable—it can be resupplied or regenerated.
If the resource is nonrenewable, then by definition its use is not
sustainable, and the rate of resource decline is a function of the rates at
which the resource is being harvested and used.
Mineral resources (such as aluminum, zinc, copper, etc.) are an example
of nonrenewable resources.
Often, however, resources are classified as nonrenewable even though
they are being resupplied, because their resupply rate is virtually
nonexistent compared to their consumption rate.
Fossil fuels are a good example. Coal, oil, and natural gas are referred to
as nonrenewable energy sources because their formation occurs on a
timescale of millions of years, making their rate of resupply effectively
zero on the timescale of human consumption.
Unlike fossil fuel energy, many nonrenewable resources can be recycled,
reducing the harvest rate for the initial resource. The effect of recycling is
to extend the effective lifetime of the resource.

11. Sustainable Development Models

12. 4 types of environmental sustainability

13. Bartlett's Laws relating to sustainability and hypotheses about
sustainability
1.Neither growth in human population nor growth in the rates of resource
consumption can be sustained.
2.The larger the population of a society and the larger its rates of
consumption of resources, the more difficult it will be to transform the
society to the condition of sustainability.
3.The response time of populations to changes in the total fertility rate is the
length of time people live from their childbearing years to the end of life, or
approximately 50 years.
4.The size of population that can be sustained (the carrying capacity) and
the sustainable average standard of living are inversely related to one
another.
5.Sustainability requires that the size of the population be less than or
equal to the carrying capacity of the ecosystem for the desired standard of
living.
6.The benefits of population growth and of growth in the rate of consumption
of resources accrue to a few individuals; the costs are borne by all of
society (the tragedy of the commons).

14. 7.(Any) growth in the rate of consumption of a nonrenewable resource,
such as a fossil fuel, causes a dramatic decrease in the life expectancy of
the resource.
8.The time of expiration of nonrenewable resources, such as a fossil fuel,
causes a dramatic decrease in the life expectancy of the resource.
9.When large efforts are made to improve the efficiency with which
resources are used, the resulting savings are easily wiped out by the
added resource needs that arise as a consequence of modest increases
in population.
10.When rates of pollution exceed the natural cleansing capacity of the
environment, it is easier to pollute that it is to clean up the environment.
11.Humans will always be dependent on agriculture so land and other
renewable resources will always be essential

15. 1. For the 1994 average global standard of living, the 1994 population of the
earth exceeds carrying capacity.
2. Increasing population size is the single greatest and most insidious threat to
representative democracy.
3. The costs of programs to stop population growth are small compared to the
costs of population growth.
4. The time required for a society to make a planned transition to sustainability
increases with increases in the size of its population and the average per
capita consumption of resources.
5. Social stability is a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for
sustainability. Social stability tends to be inversely related to population
density.
6. The burden of the lowered standard of living that results from population
growth and from the decline of resources falls most heavily upon the poor.
7. Environmental problems cannot be solved or ameliorated by increases in
the rates of consumption of resources.
8. The environment cannot be enhanced or preserved through compromises.
9. By the time overpopulation and shortage of resources are obvious to most
people, the carrying capacity has been exceeded. It is then too late to think
about sustainability
Bartlett's Sustainability Hypothesis:

16. Background
•SustainableDevelopmentModelshelpus
understandingtheconceptsofSustainabilitybetter.
•Achievingsustainabilitythus,requiresmoreeffective,
open,andproductiveassociationamongthepeople
themselves.
•Modelshelpustogather,share,andanalyze
information;theyhelpcoordinatingwork;andeducate
andtrainprofessionals,policymakers,andthepublicin
general.

17. Three Pillar Basic Model
•Thisisoneofthemostwell-knownmodelscreatedusingthe
threedimensions-Economy,EnvironmentandSociety.
•Thediagramshowsthreeinterlockingcircleswiththetriangle
ofenvironmental(conservation),economic(growth),and
social(equity)dimensions.
•SustainableDevelopmentismodeledonthesethreepillars.
•Thismodeliscalled‘threepillars’
or‘threecirclesmodel’.
•Itisbasedconsideringthesociety,
butdoesnotexplicitlytakeinto
account‘humanqualityoflife’.

18. The Egg of Sustainability
•The‘EggofSustainability’modelwasdesignedin1994bythe
InternationalUnionfortheConservationofNature(IUCN).
•Itillustratestherelationshipbetweenpeopleandecosystemas
onecircleinsideanother,liketheyolkofanegg.

19. •Thisimpliesthatpeoplearewithintheecosystem,andthat
ultimatelyoneisentirelydependentupontheother.
•Socialandeconomicaldevelopmentcanonlytakeplaceifthe
environmentoffersthenecessaryresources:rawmaterials,space
fornewproductionsitesandjobs,constitutionalqualities
(recreation,healthetc.).
•Ecosystemisthereforetoberegardedasasupercoordinated
systemtotheotherdimensionsofthetriangleorprismmodels:
social,economical,andinstitutional.
•Theselattercanonlyprosperiftheyadaptthemselvestothe
limitsofenvironmentalcarryingcapacity.
•Thusaccordingtothismodel:
sustainabledevelopment=humanwellbeing+ecosystemwellbeing

20. Atkisson’s Pyramid Model
•TheAtkissonPyramidprocesssupportsandacceleratesthe
progressfromidentifyingthevisionofsustainability,
throughanalysisandbrainstormingandagreementsona
credibleplanofaction.
•TheStructureofthePyramidguidesthroughtheprocessof
firstbuildingafirmbaseofunderstanding,searchingfor
andcollectingrelevantinformationandideas,andthen
focusingandnarrowingdowntowhatisimportant,
effective,doable,andsomethingthateveryonecanagree
in.

21. •ThefivestepsorlevelsofAtkisson’sPyramidinclude:
•Level1:Indicators-Measuringthetrend
•Level2:Systems-Makingtheconnections
•Level3:Innovations-IdeasthatMakeaDifference
•Level4:Strategies:FromIdeatoReality
•Level5:Agreements:FromWorkshoptoRealWorld
•Thismodelisdesignedtohelpgroupsof20-40peoplemove
quicklyupthesustainabilitylearningcurve,frombasicprinciples
andframeworks,tosystemsanalysis,toinnovativestrategiesfor
action.
•Alongtheway,groupspracticecross-sectoralteamwork,make
linkages,generatedozensofnewideas,andworktowardan
“Agreement”whichisasetofactionstheyagreetofollow
throughwithintherealworld.

23. Prism of Sustainability
•ThismodelwasdevelopedbytheGermanWuppertal
InstituteanddefinesSDwiththehelpoffour
components-economy,environment,societyand
institution.
•Inthismodeltheinter-linkagessuchascare,access,
democracyandeco-efficiencyneedtobelookedat
closelyastheyshowtherelationbetweenthe
dimensionswhichcouldtranslateandinfluencepolicy.
•Ineachdimensionoftheprism,thereareimperatives(as
normsforaction).
•Indicatorsareusedtomeasurehowfaronehasactually
comeincomparisontotheoverallvisionofSD.

25. The Amoeba Model
•TheAmoebaApproachisamodelusedtovisuallyassessa
system’sconditionrelativetoanoptimalcondition.
•Themodeliscircularwiththevariousindicatorspositioned
aroundtheoutside.
•Linesradiatefromthecentretotheindicators,ona
continuumfromunsustainable(inthecenter)to
sustainable(theoutsideofthecircle).
•Acirclewouldindicatetheoptimumconditions.
•Thistypeofmodelallowssimultaneousassessmentof
differentindicators,andeasycomparisonbetween
componentsofthesystem.
•“TheAmoebaModel”isapowerfultechniquefor
acceleratingtheinnovationprocessandtrainingtobefar
moreeffectiveinachievingSD.

26. AMOEBA, in the Dutch language, stands for ‘general method for ecosystem
description and assessment’. In the AMOEBA approach, quantitative
and verifiable objectives are developed that allow for a quantitative description and
assessment of ecosystems.
In the Netherlands, there were clear signs that water quality has deteriorated
since the start of the twentieth century.
Signals such as fish diseases, toxic algae, seal mortality, and the disappearance of
the sea otter and salmon pointed to this, but could not provide a complete picture
of the ecological status of Dutch waters (Ministry of Transport and Public
Work, 1989). While the initial object of study was the biological component of the
water system, the AMOEBA approach helped to describe and assess
the ecological status (including physical, chemical, and toxicological components)
of Dutch waters such as the North Sea, the Wadden Sea, the Delta
region and the big rivers.

27. The idea behind the AMOEBA is fairly simple, namely to choose a representative
number of target variables, measure their current stock or concentration, and
compare it to a reference that implies sustainability —all this can be seen ‘on
first sight’ in a single AMOEBA.
The most important requirement to judge the degree of sustainability is the
existence of (sustainable) reference values. Sustainability indicators, such as the
AMOEBA indicator, are required to do more than merely describe the current
situation.
They have to enable the evaluation of a current situation with respect to the
sustainable reference situation, which is chosen by politicians
and scientists. Of course, the validity of a sustainability indicator relies on the
quality of the chosen reference values.
The selection and the amount of target variables can be debated as well as their
‘correct’ reference values. However, all that is required to adopt the AMOEBA
approach is the political will to formulate objectives and sustainable references
that can be evaluated in quantitative terms. This has to be coupled with scientific
expertise to construct the set of target variables that form a representative cross-
section of the ecosystem.
The individual target variables of an AMOEBA indicator are assigned equal
values. While it can be debated, for example, whether seals have a higher value

28. for an ecosystem than herring, or whether phosphate levels are more important
than turbidity, the assignment of equal values best takes into account the
interdependencies within complex ecosystems. However, it is possible to
assign different values to target variables, when it comes to condensing the
information of an AMOEBA indicator to a single index number
such as an ‘ecological Dow Jones Index’.
The effectiveness of an indicator depends, to a large extent, on its clarity. Therefore,
it has to be taken into account that there are basically three different target groups
whose attitudes toward clarity differ:
1. scientists are interested primarily in statistically useable and possibly raw
uncondensed data;
2. political decision makers require some condensation of the data, as well as
relating data to political goals and criteria; and
3. individual users (the public) prefer unambiguous statements and a condensation
of the data to one value

29. The AMOEBA approach is aimed at political decision makers. It should be clear
and understandable because of its graphical form, but may require some training
if it is to be of practical use. While making progress toward ecosystem
sustainability is slow, in part because ecosystems are very complex, the
AMOEBA approach can
be one tool that helps to make ecosystems more understandable to political
decision makers, and also to the public. Policy options can be evaluated by
comparing respective AMOEBA indicators. Whenever an optical test
is not sufficient to decide between two options, further condensing information to
an ‘ecological Dow Jones Index’ allows for the determination of the most
effective option with respect to ecosystem sustainability.