Afrovax Final Presentation NEW12345.pptx

ManreenM 21 views 33 slides Sep 16, 2024
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Afrovax REIT A cold storage REIT to reduce vaccine wastage and increase vaccination rates in Africa 14 A pril 2023

2 In some countries, the incidence rate has increased by as much as 400% in 2022. This can be prevented. Over half a million children under the age of five in Africa die every year from vaccine-preventable diseases

Problem & Opportunity Metrics for Successful Immunization Program WHO Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) Success in increasing immunization coverage and millions of lives saved from vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) 175,000 cases of measles in Q1 2022 (400% increase) Weak health service delivery systems, underfunding, poor management, low political commitment Decline in Routine Vaccination in Sub-Saharan Africa Value of Vaccination

Problem & Opportunity 4 Successful immunisation is built on functional end-to-end vaccine chain and logistics system Cause Symptoms Lack of adequate warehouses for vaccine storage Private and public sector inability to fund and maintain cold chain infrastructure Solution Inability to maintain vaccine quality Uncoordinated delivery and implementation Vaccine wastage Limited supply chain capacity Low vaccine uptake Key to uninterrupted availability of quality vaccines:  Effective cold storage facilities management Unreliable cold chain system Poor maintenance of vaccine stocks Inefficient supply chain

5 Operational Solution Acquire, build and develop cold storage facilities Phase 1 Acquire Acquire warehouses and cold storage facilities in target countries Segregate vaccine and food units with stable 2°C to 8°C temperature Standardise energy efficiency and productivity of operations Provide storage to GAVI or national government Phase 2 Build Based on data from third parties, build cold storage facilities using standardised operating model Develop the end-to-end implementation with parties like GAVI, Gricd and LifeBank Phase 3 Develop Collate data, upgrade medium-scale to large-scale based on demand Improve productivity by introducing technologies in cold storage facilities for processing and packaging Scale up to other countries across Sub-Saharan Africa

Financial Solution 6 Facilitating vaccination in Africa through a cold-storage REIT Afrovax Cold Storage REIT Bond Investors Bank Unitholders Sustainability-linked FX derivative Sustainability-linked bond Invest Coupons & principal Invest Dividends Shares Cold Storage Warehouses Invest Vaccine Recipients Vaccine Suppliers Independent Evaluator Results Vaccines Vaccines Vaccine Distributors Lease Evaluate sustainability performance targets Returns Pay Fees

7 Target Geography Selection Process Places with the lowest childhood vaccination rate 10 countries Sub-Saharan Africa 46 countries Balancing against political and security risks 7 countries Impact potential 4 countries Childhood vaccination rate Population Fertility Rate Births per women Millions 2021 2021 Guinea 49.7% 13.5 4.49 Chad 57.0% 17.2 6.35 Nigeria 58.8% 213.4 5.31 Angola 40.3% 34.5 5.37 Selected Countries 2020 Target Geographies – Phase 1 Aiming for impact whilst accounting for risks

8 Scalability Our goal is to reduce vaccine wastage by 15% in 10 years Phase 1 (Year 1-5) Phases 2 and 3 (Year 5-10) Fund raise: $120 million Leasable area:  3.5 mn  sq. feet Expectation: 10% increase in   vaccine storage space in targeted countries Fund raise: $100 million Leasable area: 2.7   mn  sq. feet (additional) Expectation: Reduce vaccine wastage in targeted area  by 15 % Market size: $4.1bn in 2022 Growth: 13.8 % CAGR in 6 years Source: Market Data Forecast and Data Bridge

9 Target Investors & Potential partners Afrovax REIT targets U.S. Institutional investors Product  Target Investors  Incentives  Afrovax REIT Shares  - Capital gain - Dividends  Sustainability-Linked Bond - In terest income  Sustainability-Linked  Derivative - FX gain/ESG Organizations :   Asset acquisition targets: Property managers: Technology support: Potential partners

Cash Flow Forecast 10 Forecast Equity IRR of Afrovax REIT is estimated at 22% Assumptions Number of cold storage warehouses 55 Average rental growth rate 3.5% per annum Total size 3.5 mn sq. feet Service revenue 20% of rental revenue Number of pallets (thousands) 460 Operating margin 20.0% Average rent revenue per pallet per year $80 REIT management fee 0.75% of asset value Average occupancy rate 85% Trustee fee 0.75% of asset value

11 Improving Vaccine coverage and contributing towards UN SDGs Impact Outcome Metric 5-Yr Target Cold storage made available for vaccine storage will allow more vaccines to reach their target population, increasing vaccination rates. Afrovax invests to increase the coverage of cold-chain storage infrastructure for vaccines. ↑ vaccination rates ↑ growth rate 10% ↓ cases by 5% Percentage of children <5 that receive vaccinations per year Number of cases of death caused by vaccine-preventable diseases ↑ area by 10% Square footage of cold storage space made available for storing vaccines ↑ remote area coverage by 10% Number of cold storage warehouses in remote areas

12 Improving Vaccine coverage and contributing towards UN SDGs Impact Outcome Metric 5-Yr Target Afrovax invests into the infrastructural upgrade of cold storage units to use renewable energy. Extra cold storage space will be used for storing food to prevent food loss. ↑ funding by 5% Amount of funding invested into infrastructural development ↑ area available Square footage of cold storage space made available for storing perishables

13 Risks and Mitigations Risk Mitigation Strategy 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 Foreign Currency Fluctuation Business Viability Investment Monitoring Impact Impact Likelihood Risk Heat Map Diversify the cold storage facility purpose, also allowing partial use for storing other products, e.g. fresh food Business Viability Foreign Currency Fluctuation Enter into sustainability-linked FX derivatives for currency hedging Investment Robust due diligence process to identify and invest in cold storages built and managed by companies with track record Monitoring 3 rd -party annual review of warehouse operations to ensure compliance with SPTs Impact Use data from partner agencies (i.e., WHO)  to ensure that the most in need receive the vaccine Political risk Target country selection and working with GAVI rather than directly with government entities Political

14 Advisors Cold Chain Logistics Specialist Senior Programme Manager Cold Chain Logistics Expert Co-Founder Ibrahim Rashid Research Analyst, ESG Raghavendra Rau Professor of Finance Chris Grew Partner Jai Mallick Investment Manager Associate

15 The Afrovax Team Arvin Kristopher Razon Rose Wang Manocha Tantisiriwat Virut Hemnilrat 5-year experience in investment industry Entrepreneur with 8 years of experience in tech and distribution Product manager with 4-year experience in financial services 8-year experience in legal, compliance and data protection; published academic

Thank you! The Afrovax Team 16

Appendix 17

18 Problem The incidence of vaccine-preventable diseases are rising because of declining routine vaccination programmes across Sub-Saharan Africa Measles Diphtheria, Tetanus and Pertussis (DPT) Tuberculosis Yellow Fever Acute, highly infectious viral diseases transmitted from person to person through large respiratory droplets. Diphtheria and Pertussis: transmitted via respiratory droplets and excretions Tetanus: Acquired through environmental contamination Bacterial infection transmitted through respiratory droplets, highly contagious with 25-50% infection rate Acute viral infection transmitted by mosquito, with varying symptoms 250,000 to 500,000 deaths per year, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Neonatal tetanus: 450,000 deaths Pertussis: 1,000 in 100,000 persons, with 2.8% fatality rate Diphtheria: 6 per 1,000 persons, severely underreported Cause of nearly 2-3 million deaths annually, with TB incidence rates in Sub-Saharan Africa continuing to grow Africa accounts for 89% of total global cases, with fatality rate of 23% Low coverage indicates poor state of public health infrastructures and is a sensitive indicator of functional public health systems Tetanus is referred to as the “silent killer” Relatively cheap at US$0.07 per dose Wide range of symptoms, depending upon the age. Hits infants and adolescents significantly. Endemic to Sub-Saharan Africa in areas bordering jungles

Country Selection Criteria 19 Country Avg. childhood vaccination rate for all diseases (2021, %) UNICEF Corruption Perceptions Index (2022) Transparency International Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism Index (2021) World Bank Rule of Law Index (2021) World Bank Population (2021) World Bank Fertility Rate (2020) World Bank Population Aged 0-14 (2020, %) World Bank Somalia 35.7 12 -2.68 -2.27 17,065,581 6.42 47.25 Angola 40.3 33 -0.71 -0.95 34,503,774 5.37 45.18 Central African Republic 44.9 24 -2.10 -1.67 5,457,154 5.99 48.18 South Sudan 49.4 13 -2.30 -2.05 10,748,272 4.54 44.71 Guinea 49.7 25 -0.97 -1.13 13,531,906 4.49 41.83 Madagascar 50.2 26 -0.64 -0.87 28,915,653 3.92 39.40 Equatorial Guinea 52.7 17 -0.29 -1.20 1,634,466 4.35 38.77 Guinea-Bissau 55.9 21 -0.28 -1.44 2,060,721 4.09 40.56 Chad 57.0 19 -1.34 -1.33 17,179,740 6.35 47.66 Nigeria 58.8 24 -1.78 -0.86 213,401,323 5.31 43.29 10 lowest vaccination rates Balancing against political and security risks Impact potential Avg. among African countries 66.0%

20 Shares and Bond Details Cold Storage REIT Sustainability-Linked Bond Term Aggregate Nominal amount $50 million Type Senior, Unsecured bond (Sustainability-Linked Bond) Tenor 5 years Interest rate An interest rate of 11% per annum must be paid if the REIT meets SPT but if it fails, it will pay higher interest expense by 25 bps per 15% difference from storage target Issuance fee 3% of total size Bond covenants Debt to equity not exceeding 2.5x and negative pledge Use of proceed To build cold storage warehouse in remote areas of targeted African countries SPT At least 30% of storage space must be occupied by vaccine External review Appointed independent evaluator to conduct annual evaluation Afrovax REIT Issued shares 10,000,000 Target raised fund  $70 million  Issuance fee  5% of total size  Use of proceed  Acquisition of cold storage warehouses in remote areas of targeted African countries Scope of investment (i) Green certified warehouse, (ii) At least 70% usage of solar energy, (iii) Built in remote area in Africa, (iv) 30% of storage space must give priority to vaccine Distibution policy At least 90% of REIT annual taxable income Potential listed exchange  NYSE and NASDAQ Source: Team Analysis

21 Forecast Equity IRR of Afrovax REIT is estimated at 22% Assumptions Number of cold storage warehouses 55 Average rental growth rate 3.5% per annum Total size 3.5 mn sq. feet Service revenue 20% of rental revenue Number of pallets (thousands) 460 Operating margin 20.0% Average rent revenue per pallet per year $80 REIT management fee 0.75% of asset value Average occupancy rate 85% Trustee fee 0.75% of asset value CF Projection (in USD, thousands) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Rental revenue 33,120 34,279 35,479 36,721 38,006 44,321 51,755 59,595 67,858 76,564 Service revenue 6,624 6,856 7,096 7,344 7,601 8,864 10,351 11,919 13,572 15,313 Total revenue 39,744 41,135 42,575 44,065 45,607 53,186 62,106 71,514 81,430 91,877 Operating exp. (31,795) (32,908) (34,060) (35,252) (36,486) (42,549) (49,685) (57,211) (65,144) (73,502) Operating income 7,949 8,227 8,515 8,813 9,121 10,637 12,421 14,303 16,286 18,375 Interest expense (5,500) (5,500) (5,500) (5,500) (5,500) (5,500) (5,500) (5,500) (5,500) (5,500) Taxable income 2,449 2,727 3,015 3,313 3,621 5,137 6,921 8,803 10,786 12,875 Distribution (90%) 2,204 2,454 2,713 2,982 3,259 4,623 6,229 7,922 9,707 11,588 DPU 0.22 0.25 0.27 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.47 0.49 0.60 0.71 Dividend yield 3.1% 3.5% 3.9% 4.3% 4.7% 4.8% 5.9% 6.1% 6.8% 7.5% IRR 22%

Distribution of REIT income 22 Source: Team Analysis

Industrial rent and yields in Africa 23 Average occupancy rate is 85% Source: Knight Frank

Solar cold storage cost estimation 24 Studied by Dr. Georgia Badelt Source: GeoCode International Parameter Value System costs 28,500 USD Cooling fee 100 N (0,27 USD) Utilization rate 110% (based on daily records) Interest rate 20% KPI Value Project IRR 48% Net Present Value 76,315 USD Debt Service Coverage Ratio 1,36 Payback period 3 years ➢ System is tested and proven in Nigeria ➢ Commercial viability with current business model (fee-for-service/ ownership model) is robust ( see KPIs), at least on markets (for cooperatives the viability could not be analyzed yet) ➢ A utilization of at least 93% is required (110% over the whole yr. observed) ➢ For upscaling, other business models such as franchising are advisable. This requires an increase of cooling fee to at least 135 Naira (0,37 USD), which is affordable.

Sensitivity Analysis 25 The change in IRR if SPT is missed CF Projection (in USD, thousands) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Rental revenue 33,120 34,279 35,479 36,721 38,006 Service revenue 6,624 6,856 7,096 7,344 7,601 Total revenue 39,744 41,135 42,575 44,065 45,607 Operating exp. (31,795) (32,908) (34,060) (35,252) (36,486) Operating income 7,949 8,227 8,515 8,813 9,121 Interest expense (5,625) (5,625) (5,625) (5,625) (5,625) Taxable income 2,324 2,602 2,890 3,188 3,496 Distribution (90%) 2,091 2,342 2,601 2,869 3,147 DPU 0.21 0.23 0.26 0.29 0.31 IRR 21% CF Projection (in USD, thousands) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Rental revenue 33,120 34,279 35,479 36,721 38,006 Service revenue 6,624 6,856 7,096 7,344 7,601 Total revenue 39,744 41,135 42,575 44,065 45,607 Operating exp. (31,795) (32,908) (34,060) (35,252) (36,486) Operating income 7,949 8,227 8,515 8,813 9,121 Interest expense (5,750) (5,750) (5,750) (5,750) (5,750) Taxable income 2,199 2,477 2,765 3,063 3,371 Distribution (90%) 1,979 2,229 2,488 2,757 3,034 DPU 0.20 0.22 0.25 0.28 0.30 IRR 20% Interest rate + 25 bps Interest rate + 50 bps

26 FX Sensitivity Analysis The change in profit and dividend yield if FX changes FX change Impact on profit (in thousands) Dividend yield 20% $491 4.2% 15% $368 4.0% 10% $245 3.9% 5% $123 3.7% 0% $0 3.5% -5% ($123) 3.3% -10% ($245) 3.2% -15% ($368) 3.0% -20% ($491) 2.8% Source: Team Analysis

Average REIT return in the U.S. Market 27 3-year total return is 10.41% Source: S &P

Year Over Year Growth of Child Measles Vaccination (%, 12-23 months) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Average YoY Growth Angola 42 50 51 44 36 -3.5% Guinea 47 47 47 47 47 0% Chad 37 42 41 47 55 8.5% Nigeria 54 56 57 59 59 4.8% 28 Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.IMM.MEAS?locations=TD-AO-GN

Historical Trends of Measles Immunisation 29 Selected countries compared to regional average

Average Childhood Vaccination Coverage (last dose of each vaccine) (%) 30 Country 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10-yr growth (annual) 5-yr growth (annual) Nigeria 47.7 36.1 42.1 43.6 42.6 52.4 56.0 56.9 57.9 58.8 58.8 2.11% 2.32% Chad 41.4 49.6 46.3 41.3 47.9 41.7 41.7 40.3 46.3 50.0 57.0 3.24% 6.44% Angola 53.0 55.0 46.3 51.0 53.8 48.3 49.6 57.3 55.0 46.7 40.3 -2.69% -3.55% Guinea 65.4 59.7 53.6 47.9 50.1 49.9 49.3 49.9 49.9 49.7 49.7 -2.71% -0.06% Africa 52.0 54.0 56.2 60.8 63.1 65.6 67.0 67.7 68.6 67.3 66.0 2.41% 0.14%

Historical Trends of Food Loss 31   2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Angola   food loss ( tonnes ) 3,269,000 3,526,000 2,799,000 4,021,000 2,733,000 2,807,000 2,918,000 3,036,000 3,179,000 3,159,000 3,091,000   food loss per capita 0.140 0.145 0.111 0.154 0.101 0.100 0.100 0.101 0.102 0.098 0.092 Chad   food loss ( tonnes ) 722,000 473,000 761,000 648,000 641,000 596,000 702,000 670,000 724,000 715,000 717,000   food loss per capita 0.061 0.038 0.060 0.049 0.047 0.042 0.048 0.044 0.046 0.044 0.043 Guinea   food loss ( tonnes ) 1,003,000 1,040,000 1,100,000 1,152,000 1,165,000 1,208,000 1,199,000 1,240,000 1,292,000 1,572,000 1,711,000   food loss per capita 0.098 0.099 0.102 0.104 0.103 0.104 0.100 0.101 0.103 0.122 0.130 Nigeria   food loss ( tonnes ) 12,737,000 12,061,000 15,477,000 13,878,000 15,056,000 15,373,000 15,810,000 15,731,000 15,689,000 15,030,000 15,045,000   food loss per capita 0.079 0.073 0.091 0.079 0.084 0.084 0.084 0.081 0.079 0.074 0.072

32 References Slide 2 Disease and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa, Chapter 12: Vaccine-Preventable Diseases: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK2284/   Vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks on the rise in Africa: https://www.afro.who.int/news/vaccine-preventable-disease-outbreaks-rise-africa     Slide 3 WHO Expanded Program on Immunization:  https://www.who.int/teams/immunization-vaccines-and-biologicals/essential-programme-on-immunization Slide 4 Vaccine Storage and Handling: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkbook/vac-storage.html   Slide 8 African cold storage market analysis: https://www.marketdataforecast.com/market-reports/middle-east-and-africa-cold-chain-market African cold storage market analysis: https://www.databridgemarketresearch.com/reports/middle-east-and-africa-cold-chain-monitoring-market Slide 19 Vaccine preventable diseases :  https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/immunization Slide 20 Childhood vaccination rate: https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-health/immunization/ Corruption Perception Index: https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2022 Political Stability & Absence of Violence/Terrorism Index: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ Rule of Law Index: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/ Population: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL Fertility rate: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN Population Aged 0-14: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.0014.TO Slide 24 Industrial rent market in Africa: https://www.knightfrank.com/research/report-library/africa-logistics-industrial-review-h2-2021-8474.aspx Slide 25 Solar cold storage cost: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/UNFCC_pptHandout.pdf Slide 28 S&P REIT return: https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-united-states-reit/#overview Slide 29 Measles Immunization: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.IMM.MEAS Slide 30 Measles Immunization: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.IMM.MEAS

33 References Slide 31 Childhood vaccination rate: https://data.unicef.org/topic/child-health/immunization/ Slide 32 Food loss: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBS
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