Airport Focus - Cairo Airport Traffic Forecasting 2024

Airport Focus - Cairo Airport
Accurate forecasting is essential for effective planning, as the absence of reliable predictions can lead to significant disruptions, similar to those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic—a prime example of a Black Swan event.

An analysis of traffic data from Cairo Airport reveals notable inconsistencies that obscure the seasonal trends, yet also point to a significant growth rate in 2023. The forecasting model is structured into two distinct periods: the first captures the normal growth trajectory before the onset of COVID-19, while the second period accounts for the substantial impact of the pandemic and signs of recovery by 2023, using a displacement approach.

Looking ahead, the total number of passengers projected for 2024 is 30,307,236, with an anticipated annual growth rate of 17.58%. This projection underscores the importance of adaptive forecasting models in navigating post-pandemic recovery and planning for future growth.

1. AIRPORT By: Mohammed Salem Commercial Director Date of Issue: 1 Sept 2024

2. Outline Introduction Shocks In Aviation History COVID 19 Crisis Black Swan Situation Impact in 2020 Normal Growth Normal Growth Vs Post Pandemic Forecasting Definition Airline Industry Model CAIRO Airport Cairo Airport In 60 Years Data Source / Collection Data by Graph Impact of Covid 19 Post Pandemic analysis Traffic Forecast 2024 Summary Contact. Outline

3. Introduction Shocks in Aviation History

4. Introduction “ The magnitude of the COVID-19 crisis for airlines is enormous. Over the 2020-2022 period total losses could top $200 billion . To survive airlines have dramatically cut costs and adapted their business to whatever opportunities were available. That will see the $137.7 billion loss of 2020 reduce to $52 billion this year. And that will further reduce to $12 billion in 2022. We are well past the deepest point of the crisis. While serious issues remain, the path to recovery is coming into view. Aviation is demonstrating its resilience yet again. ” Willie Walsh IATA’s Director General. COVID 19 Crisis

5. Introduction Black Swan Situation Black Swan Theory: A theory that suggests that rare events are unpredictable as if they were impossible to happen. The theory took its name from the swan, as it was widely believed that all birds of this species were white, until black swans were discovered in Western Australia in the 18th century. - It is an unexpected surprise and have a significant impact , and - After it occurs the explanations that it considers predictable appear . The theory was described by The Black Swan in 2007. There are no agreed criteria by classifying an event as a "black swan", so it could be a natural disaster , a sudden war , a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a deadly virus such as the Covid-19 pandemic , but, according to Naseem Nicola, black swan events usually have three main characteristics: It has not occurred in the recent past, and the forecasting and forecasting tools used at the time of their occurrence cannot be monitored. It has a profound impact on societies around the world. They are inexplicable at the time they occur, and can only be absorbed long enough after they have occurred.

6. Introduction Black Swan Situation

7. Introduction Impact : Spot Light in Dark Days

8. Introduction Normal Growth

9. 2024 – Forecast ( Normal Vs Post Pandemic ) Introduction

10. Forecasting Forecasting is valid only in a stable economic environments – but not in the cases of a force major such as a natural disaster , a sudden war , a financial collapse or a global outbreak of a deadly virus such as the Covid-19 pandemic . So for time series, forecasting will be the mirror of the past with an uncertain growth or not to repeat the hidden cycles , seasons and shocks that may will appear in the future with a minimum acceptable margin errors . Forecasting

11. A i r li ne I n d u s t r y M o d e l Airline Forecasting I ndu st ry Model – Time Series

12. A i r li ne I n d u s t r y M o d e l D i r ec t i on a l a n d Displacement Factors Directional Displacement

13. Reading In The Future CAIRO Airport

14. CAIRO Airport

15. 15 Thank You CAIRO Airport Mohammed Salem Commercial Director Fly Aden 00 967 773522410

16. CAIRO Airport

17. Data Source Data Source : http://www.ehcaan.com/statistics.aspx#day

18. Data Input Data Collection شركة ميناء القاهرة الجوي Cairo Airport Company

19. Data - Graph Data By Graph

20. Impact Analysis – Covid 19 Impact of Black Sawn

21. 21 Post-pandemic Analysis

22. 22 Traffic Forecast 2024 2024 Traffic Forecast – Compare with Normal Growth

23. 23 Summary Accurate forecasting is essential for effective planning, as the absence of reliable predictions can lead to significant disruptions, similar to those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic—a prime example of a Black Swan event. An analysis of traffic data from Cairo Airport reveals notable inconsistencies that obscure the seasonal trends, yet also point to a significant growth rate in 2023. The forecasting model is structured into two distinct periods: the first captures the normal growth trajectory before the onset of COVID-19, while the second period accounts for the substantial impact of the pandemic and signs of recovery by 2023, using a displacement approach. Looking ahead, the total number of passengers projected for 2024 is 30,307,236 , with an anticipated annual growth rate of 17.58 %. This projection underscores the importance of adaptive forecasting models in navigating post-pandemic recovery and planning for future growth.

24. 24 Thank You Mohammed Salem Commercial Director Fly Aden 00 967 773522410