Appraising and Prioritizing Adaptation Options

Presentation by Kabwe Harnadih Mubanga, PhD, at the the Bilateral Peer-to-Peer Learning Workshop on National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process between Namibia and Zambia held in Lusaka, Zambia, from August 7-9, 2024.

1. APPRAISING AND PRIORITIZING ADAPTATION OPTIONS By Kabwe Harnadih Mubanga, PhD SENIOR Lecturer: THE university OF ZAMBIA PRESENTATION AT THE Bilateral Peer-to-Peer Learning Workshop on National Adaptation Plan (NAP) Process HELD FROM 07TH TO 9TH AUGUST 2024

2. Introduction Climate change impacts are evident Addressing climate change Mitigation Adaptation (This project is focussed on this) Impacts cuts across sectors

3. ImpACTS – Forest sector Invasive species Insect and pathogen outbreaks Risk of fires Phenology (fruiting, flowering, etc).

4. IMPACTS - Health sector Direct and indirectly Frequent extreme weather events and associated diseases Disease burdens Water and vector borne diseases Heatwaves

5. IMPACTS - Fisheries sector Water quality (sedimentation, physical & chemical parameters) and quantity Extreme weather events e.g. floods, droughts, heat waves  water flow & fish habitat loss Provision of ecosystem services Overfishing, habitat loss and pollution Increase in air temperature will affect water quality by changing dissolved oxygen and carbon dioxide  impact aquatic flora and fauna negatively

6. Adaptation A djustments in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects of impacts. C hanges in processes, practices, and structures to moderate potential damages or to benefit from opportunities

7. F easibility of adaptation options F easibility is ‘the degree to which climate goals and response options are considered possible and/or desirable’. Assessing feasibility across a number of dimensions B road understanding of feasibility is key in adaptation Changes in the feasibility of an adaptation option over time is essential to understand prioritization and sequencing of options

8. F easibility of adaptation options Feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation options is essential for guiding responses to climate change that reduce risk Feasibility of specific actions/technologies is multidimensional, differentiated across temporal and spatial scales, and across regions. Feasibility assessments need to move away from being static assessments of certain attributes of options to more dynamic understandings of how multiple factors interact to shape overall feasibility

9. What is MCA? Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a valuable tool that we can apply to many complex decisions. Solving problems that are characterized as a choice among alternative Structure the problem and explicitly evaluate multiple criteria Provides structured approach in appraising and prioritizing adaptation Leads to more informed and better decisions

10. Why mca? Access multiple categories of environmental, social, technical dimenstions Possible Trade-offs among alternatives Can deal with project with multiple and conflicting objectives or criteria It allows identifying a single prefered alternative or to rank or short list possible alternatives.

11. M ca useful attributes Capability to accommodate multiple criteria Can work with both quantitative and qualitative data Allows for the direct involvement of multiple experts, interest groups and stakeholders. More transparent analysis amongst participants Includes mechanisms for feedback concerning the consistency of the judgements made.

12. MCA criteria List of adaptation Impact Exposure, resilience, sensitivity - Exposure: The nature and degree to which a system is exposed to significant climatic variations. Amount of change a system can undergo without changing state Sensitivity is the degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli . Effectiveness, impact on population

13. MCA Institutional governance Support of policy framework Political buy-in Environmental Technical feasibility Financial

14. MCA Gender D ifferent ways in which men and women contribute to climate change, I mpact that climate change has on men and women, Ways that men and women respond to and are able to cope with climate change . D ifferences in how they are able to shift from short term coping mechanisms to resilience

15. MCA Inclusiveness Vulnerable groups Integration of social groups Risk Risk reduction Economic development OUTCOME/ RANK

16. A daptation option List possible adaptation option This is the list of proposals of what can be done to adapt Appraising options starts with listing options and then appraise them aga in st a criteria which helps in ranking.

17. A practical example – in excel