CCXG global forum, September 2024, Itchell Guiney

Presentation from the CCXG global forum

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Opportunities and challenges of preparing economy
wide NDCs covering all greenhouse gases, sectors, and
categories
Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG)
Global Forum on the Environment and Climate Change
17-18 September 2024

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Outline
•Questions?
•Key challenges
•Current SA NDC
•Addressing challenges
•Climate Change Act
•SETs and other legislated tools/mechanisms

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Questions…
•What are key challenges Parties face when expanding
their NDCs to cover all GHGs, sectors, and categories,
and how can these challenges be addressed while
respecting national circumstances?
•How can Parties ensure that their sectoral responses
to the mitigation-related calls in paragraph 28 of the
GST1 complement and strengthen the broader call
towards economy-wide targets in the next round of
NDCs?

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Key challenges:
•Finances
•policies and legislation
•Capacity/technical constraints – some sectors
•Institutional arrangements
•Systems/tools
•Infrastructure
•Political/governance aspects
•Overlapping mandates
•Specific sectoral challenges, e.g. AFOLU
•MRV

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Current SA NDC
•NB!!! NDC consists of 3 components
•Adaptation!!!
•Mitigation
•Support
•NDC is not conditional, conditionality implied
•Support needed for dev and impl of PAMs
•Periods: 2021-2025 and 2026-2030
•Update (Sep 2021) from previous NDC (in 2015)

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Current SA NDC
•Coverage of the NDC:
•economy-wide, including the land sector
•includes the five gases currently covered by the
NIR (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs)
•In accounting for NDC targets, South Africa will
use an inventory-based approach for all sectors
•NB!!! GHG Inventory
•ONLY manage what you can measure!!!
•GHG Inventory as a basis

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SA NGHG Inventory
•Latest one submitted to UNFCCC
•2000-2020
•Reports GHGs for 2020 and trends (2000-2020)
•First inventory prepared in 1998 and published in
2004
•In 2013 initiated our NGHGI improvement
programme

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SA NGHG Inventory
GHG Improvement Programme:
•Main challenge remains the availability of
accurate activity data
•The National GHGIP which comprises a series of
sector-specific projects that are targeting
improvements in activity data, country- specific
methodologies and emission factors used in the
most significant sectors.

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SA NGHG Inventory
Other systems:
•SAGERS
•South African Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reporting System (SAGERS)
which is the GHG module of National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory
System (NAEIS)
•NCCIS
•NCCRD
•SAs Mitigation System

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SA NGHG Inventory
Therefore:
•Countries need to decide if it is feasible to focus on
all sectors, or mainly the high emitting sectors at
start
•Progress over time
•For SA:
•Energy sector - 94.7% in 2020.
•The categories 1A1 energy industries (60.1%), and 1A3
Transport (12%) were the major contributors to the CO2
emissions in 2020.
•IPPU sector - 4.9%, while the
•AFOLU sector (excl. FOLU) - 0.4%in 2020

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Legislation and policies
•Sectoral measures - national legislation and
policies
•Funded mandate
•For instance: AFOLU under-represented in
current SA NDC not many targets in policies or
legislative documents
•Policies/legislation v Actual Implementation

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Climate Change Act
•Assented to on 18 July 2024
•Main objective:
•To enable the development of an effective climate
change response: and
•a long-term, just transition to a low-carbon and
climate-resilient economy and society for South
Africa in the context of sustainable development; and
•to provide for matters connected therewith.

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Climate Change Act
CHAPTER 5
•GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS
•National greenhouse gas emissions trajectory
•Sectoral emissions targets
•Listed greenhouse gases and activities
•Carbon budgets
•Phase-down and phase-out of synthetic greenhouse
gas emissions and declaration
•National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

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Sectoral Emission Targets (SETs)

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Background SETs
•The National Climate Change Act defines SETs as the greenhouse gas emissions
reduction goals, either qualitative or quantitative, applicable to sectors or sub-
sectors over a period of time (determined for three rolling 5-year periods and will
be reviewed every 5 years in line with NDC).
•Sectoral policies and measures (PAMs) are critical for the implementation of the
SETs.
•PAMs may include regulatory instruments (specifically legislation, regulations and
standards), economic instruments (for example, incentives and taxes),
government procurement programmes or direct investment by government
•Integrated Resource Plan, National Energy Efficiency Strategy, Green
Transport Strategy and National Waste Management Strategy are some of the
examples of PAMs that would help sector implement and meet their allocated SETs
for their respective sectors
•Most of these PAMs already form part of the South African Low Emission
Development Strategy (LEDS) which will also serve as a vehicle to drive the
implementation of our NDC.

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ELEMENTS OF THE CLIMATE MITIGATION SYSTEM
Mitigation Goal
National GHG
Emissions
Trajectory Range,
against which
outcome of all
mitigation actions
will be measured
Sectoral Targets
Defining Desired Emission
Reduction Outcomes
(DEROs), now Sectoral
Emissions Targets
(SETs), for each
significant sector or sub-
sector of the economy
Industry
implementation
Mitigation plans to
demonstrate how
mitigation by companies
is to be achieved
Monitoring of
GHG emissions
Data collection,
GHG inventory and
M&E system
Industry emissions limits
Adopting a carbon budget
approach to provide for
flexibility and least cost
mitigation in sectors and/or
sub-sectors
Sector policies to
drive mitigation
Policies and Measures
(PAMS), economic
measures to drive
mitigation (e.g. IRP
2019 – REIPPP)

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SET ALLOCATION PROCESS
STEP 1: Identification of PAMs for SETs (using an agreed
criteria). This is conducted with national line
departments.
STEP 2: Emission reduction is extrapolated from identified
PAMs
STEP 3: Understanding the socio-economic impacts of SETs –
done
STEP 4: Development of SETs reporting templates
(customized for sectors)
STEP 5: Approval of SETs by Cabinet

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SECTORAL EMISSIONS TARGETS (SETS)
Where are we now?
•DFFE has been working on the development of SETs over the past five years:
•SETs framework has been finalized in the 2021/22 financial year
•A two-stage engagement process with sector departments has unfolded.
•Stage one focused on discussing and agreeing on the portfolio of Policies and
Measures (PAMs) to inform the allocation of SETs
•Stage two focused on quantifying (through modelling) and discussing the quantifiable
emissions reduction implications of selected PAMs, thus informing the proposed SETs
•DFFE Published the Draft 2030 SETs for public comment
•Commenting period closed: 26 June 2024
•Currently: SETs is public comment reviewing comments

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Quantifiable SETs
Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development
Sectoral Policies and Measures
(PAMs) Unit 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Cumulative (2025-
2030)
Agriculture PAMs (ERs) MtCO
2eq 0,74 0,61 0,53 0,38 0,55 0,57 3,37
Water and Sanitation
Methane capture (ERs) MtCO
2eq 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,06 0,06
Mineral Resources and Energy
Electricity Sector (ELs) MtCO
2eq 177,35 165,85 157,72 157,95 148,95 124,73
NEES (ERs) MtCO
2eq 3,28 3,95 5,09 6,58 6,80 7,07 32,78
Electrification Strategy (ERs) MtCO
2eq 0,22 1,10 1,73 1,28 1,51 2,98 8,83
SWH (ERs) MtCO
2eq 0,22 0,37 1,54 1,42 1,35 1,41 6,31
Forestry, and Environment
CT+CB (ERs) MtCO
2eq 5,54 8,03 10,37 11,95 12,09 10,45 58,41
NWMS (ERs) MtCO
2eq 0,15 0,29 1,69 1,79 2,17 2,39 8,49
Forestry (ERs) MtCO
2eq 1,05 0,78 0,48 0,47 0,76 0,91 4,45
Kigali Amendment (ERs) MtCO
2eq 0,30 0,20 0,92 0,77 1,50 1,46 5,15
Other environment (ERs) MtCO
2eq 0,00 0,00 0,02 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,02
Transport
Transport PAMs (ERs) MtCO
2eq 0.21 0.87 2.57 4.62 5.24 4.51 18.03
[1]
ERs are emissions reductions achieved relative to the WEM scenario
[2]
ELs are emission levels that must be achieved in a given year within the SETs commitment period. The SETs commitment period in this case is (2025-2030).

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Qualitative SETs
Sector Policies and Measures Affected/proposed
DMRE - Energy Energy Efficiency Demand Side Management
DMRE – Minerals
Draft Mine Closure Strategy
Derelict and Ownership Mines Programme
The Exploration Strategy for the Mining Sector of South Africa and Critical Minerals Strategy
Sustainable Development Reporting Guidelines
DALRRD
Conservation of Agriculture Resources Act
Climate Smart Strategic Framework
Conservation Agriculture Strategy
Climate Change Sector Plan
Agriculture Sector Implementation Plan
DTIC
Green Hydrogen Commercialisation Strategy
Master Plans (various)
Industrial finance incentives
Strategy for Green Trade Barriers
Green (low carbon) Industrial Strategy
National Building Standards and Regulations/ SANAS 10400
National Cleaner Production Centre
DHS Sector Climate Response Strategy, National Housing Code
DWS
Green Drop Report
Water and Sanitation Sector Policy on Climate Change
DoT
National Land Transport Strategic Framework 2023 to 2028
White Paper of National Transport Policy
White Paper on National Rail Policy
Roadmap for the Freight Logistics System in South Africa 2023
Draft Comprehensive Maritime Transport Policy, 2017
White Paper on National Civil Aviation Policy
Draft Roads Policy
DFFE REDD+ Strategy

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GHG Analysis of SETs
•Conducted using the DFFE Integrated
Emissions Model
•Scenarios assessed:

With Existing Measures:
•No changes made across the economy
to what exists in 2022
•Business as Usual scenario
SETs Policy Package:
•PAMs as identified with Line Department
•Policies that do not exist: targets
projected based on stakeholder
engagement
“Realistic PAMs”:
•All SETs PAMs where implementation is
assumed to be 75%
SETs 1.5 degree scenario
•All SETs PAMs plus increased ambition in
Energy, Transport and Environment

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SETs – NDC Implications
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SETs – Socio
Economic
Implications
•Investment into the
country economy will
be highest with higher
emissions reductions.
•The investment
needs to achieve the
1.5-degree scenario
compared to the SETs
scenario is 3%, or R28
billion annually.
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SETs allocation: Key messages
•Analysis done jointly with Sector departments shows that the
current portfolio of PAMs assessed will help South Africa meet
its NDC targets by 2050.
•This process has also proposed qualitative SETs that will help
the sectors transition towards a low carbon economy (e.g.,
Demand Side Management Strategy)
•The impact of factoring out wildfires does not affect the
country’s efforts to meet its NDC targets by 2030.
•Increasing ambition to the lower end of the NDC target range
will require significant amount of investments particularly in the
electricity (additional renewable energy development) and
transport sector (mainly through road-to-rail infrastructure
development).
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Dr Shauna Costley
Hazardous Waste Management Support
Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries
Tel: [phone] | Mobile: [phone]
Website: http://www.dffe.gov.za
Address: The Environment House, 473 Steve Biko Road, Arcadia, Pretoria, 0083
THANK YOU!