Climate change: Implications on fruit crops Speaker C. A. Devi
Contents - Introduction -Climate change -Effect of climate change -Impacts of C.C. on fruit crops -Future thrust - Conclusion -Adaptation and mitigation
The Earth’s climate, although relatively stable for the past 10,000 years or so, has always been changing, mainly due to natural causes such as volcanic activity. But since the 1900s more rapid changes have taken place and these are thought to be mainly man-made. Global warming mean temperatures increased by 0.74 C during last 100 years and by the year 2100 best estimates predict between a 1.8 C and 4 C rise in average global temperature, although it could possibly be as high as 6.4 C. INTRODUCTION
Climate includes the statistics of temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, rainfall, atmospheric particle count and numerous other meteorological elements in a given region over a long periods of time. CLIMATE Climate can be contrasted to weather, which is the present condition of these same elements over periods up to two weeks.
WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
What do you mean by climate change ? Climate change refers to the variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time. UNFCCC defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”
Causes of climate change Natural Causes Anthropogenic Causes Continental drift Volcanoes The Earth’s Tilts Ocean Currents Intensity of Solar Radiation 1) Green Houses Gases Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous oxide (NO 2 ) Chloro floro carbons (CFCs) Ozone (O 3 ) Water Vapors (H 2 O) 2) Land Use Change Deforestation Urbanization
Components of Climate change The components of the global climate system : a schematic view Source: IPCC 2001
Climate change Melting glaciers polar caps Decreased reflective surface Rising sea level Flooding of costal regions Deforestation Fossil fuel combustion CO 2 Aerosol propellants CFC-11 Refrigerants CFC-12 Warm oceans Decreased CO 2 solubility in water Garbage Swampy rice fields Cattle CH 4 N 2 O Biomass Burning-fertilizer O 3 Photochemical reaction Elements involved in Climate change
WHY CLIMATE CHANGE A CONCERN ? Rise in global average surface temperature of 1.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. Sea levels to rise 7-23 inches by the year 2100 . Carbon dioxide expected to be 100% higher in 2100. Annual river runoff and water availability will increase at high latitudes and decrease in some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the tropics . Changes in rainfall and the disappearance of glaciers. The ability of ecosystems to naturally adapt to changes in climate is likely to be severely reduced. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007
Benefits and drawbacks of global warming on agriculture Rosenzwieg and Tubiello , 2007
CLIMATIC VARIABLES AFFECTING FRUIT PRODUCTION Temperature Soil temperature and moisture. Rainfall Wind Hail Relative Humidity Frost
Effect of temperature High Temperature: At critical high temperature, granules appear in the cytoplasm, viscosity increases and the cell membrane loses its permeability & coagulation of the entire cell contents takes place. High summer temperatures aggravates incidence of various pests and diseases. Low Temperature: It would appear that O 2 absorption proceeds at a much more rapid rate than O 2 elimination, which may result in the accumulation of toxic substances in the plant cells. Flower bud initiation is inhibited in many plants by high and in the others by low-growing season temperature.
Effect of soil temperature Soil temperature exercises a considerable influence on growth and development of the plant. Besides influencing the water uptake and nutrient absorption, the soil temperature also affects the root development, cessation of growth and induction of dormancy. In general, tropical-fruit production is normally limited by the available soil moisture and many fruit trees, such as mango and litchi, require a dry period to stop vegetative growth and induce flowering (Nakasone and Paull , 1998). Soil moisture determines the flowering time and germination of plants (Dreyer et al., 2006). Effect of soil mois ture
Effect of rainfall In general, heavy rains, even for a short duration, are more damaging than drizzling. Similarly, rains accompanied by low temperature and wind, are more damaging than the rain alone. Pre-monsoon showers destroy the complete crops of fruits like grapes and dates. Effect of relative humidity Extremely low or high humidity may affect yield through poor fruit set and excessive drop of the fruits in oranges, mandarins & most of the subtropical and temperate fruit crops. Low and high humidity affects fruit set as it may cause poor pollen germination owing to drying or desiccation of stigmatic fluid.
Effect of wind A reasonable amount of wind at the time of flowering aids in securing better fruit set. Orchards located deep in the valley , which are less exposed to wind, have better fruit set than those located in the exposed place on the windward side. Very high wind speeds are detrimental to fruit crops. Effect of hails Very harmful if it occurs at any time between flowering and fruit development stage. In temperate fruit orchards, hail destroys all the flower buds and injures almost all the developing fruits. On fruits, there is development of ugly spots.
Effect of frost Frost - causing a regular /irregular damage. Spring frosts are particularly harmful to the plants in temperate climate . Frost may either kill the sexual organs of a flower or completely destroy the blossoms thereby influencing the fruit-set. Frost cause damage to the plant parts near the ground level since it is the coldest place Bark of the young trees is killed and cracked open and the inner-sap carrying tissues are ruptured through freezing.
Impact of climate change on Fruit crops
DORMANCY IN TEMPERATE FRUIT TREES Dormancy is a mechanism for the correct adaptation of plant phenology to unfavourable climatic conditions, changes in climatic conditions may affect the dormancy cycle and, consequently, the overall plant phenology which may have negative implications. After the release of dormancy, the development of plants strongly depends on air temperature. With increasing temperature the biochemical reactions are accelerated up to a threshold where enzyme systems are destroyed and cells die. Campoy and Egea (2011)
CHILLING REQUIREMENTS Warming trends of 0.06 C/decade for maximum temperature and 0.12 C/decade for minimum temperature observed from 1910–2004 (Nicholls and Collins, 2006). It is anticipated that further warming will occur in response to increased greenhouse gas levels increasing the likelihood of inadequate chill exposure. Campoy et al . (2010) observed that in apricot chilling requirement differences higher than 50% can be found for clonal plant material grown successfully in different climatic conditions. This variation might be associated both with different temperatures and other factors such as latitude.
EFFECT ON PHENOLOGY An indirect effect of increasing air temperatures is the prolongation of the growing season ( Chmielewski et al ., 2001 ) and the modification of the phenological phases of individual plants, i.e. the sequence of the development stages. Shifts in walnut phenology due to increasing temperatures has been reported by Crepinsek et al . (2009) . Depending on walnut cultivar, the average Bud-breaking date could be advanced by as much as 4 weeks by 2060 and also the frost hazard will probably increase.
POLLINATION Temperature If the temperature is either very low or very high there is no fertilization, thus affecting fruit set. The pollen of temperate fruits like apple, pear, cherry, plum, walnut, pecannut etc. germinate freely at a temperature of 50 F or above. Cross pollinated and entomophilous . -Most of the insects work well at or near 40 F & when the temp is either very low or high, they don’t take flight, which affects pollination and thereby the fruit set.
Rainfall: Rainfall at blossoming limits the fruit set. Rainfall during flowering time affects the activity of pollen carrying insects. Wind: Pollen carrying insects work more effectively in a still atmosphere. Wind cause mechanical injuries to the flower. Relative Humidity: Activity of bees and other pollen carrying insects is hindered under low or very high relative humidity.
POSTHARVEST QUALITY High temperatures can increase the rate of biochemical reactions catalyzed by different enzymes. Carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere has directly effects on postharvest quality of fruits. Ozone-enriched atmospheres increased vitamin C content and decreased emissions of volatile esters. Avocado fruit grown in New Zealand and exposed to direct sunlight had pulp temperatures at harvest that frequently exceeded 35 C ( Woolf, Bowen & Ferguson, 1999 ). During subsequent storage at 0 C (below the recommended temperature), these fruit had lower incidences of chilling injury than fruit harvested from shaded parts of the tree. Moretti et al . (2010)
IMPACT ON DISEASE MANAGEMENT Durability of host resistance may be threatened if number of infection cycles within a growing season increases. Efficacy of crop protection chemicals affected due to changes in temperature and precipitation. Natural spread of vectors, pests and diseases is to be accelerated towards north. Severe outbreak of plant disease vectors like aphids, white flies, thrips etc. Extension of the period of disease infection further into the growing season. Introduction and establishment of new vector species. High temperature in spring and summer result in faster the reproduction rate thus rapid increase in pest population.
OCCURRENCE OF WINTER FREEZE INJURY The greatest impact of weather on production in of apple grape, apricot, peach and sweet cherry was that of minimum temperature causing winter injury during late autumn and winter (November to February). Grape, sweet cherry, and apple were at greatest risk of winter injury in November, December and early January. Grape and apple remained at risk throughout February. Pear, apricot and peach were at highest risk in January and February. Climate change may affect the survival of these crops differently. The production zones of pear, peach and apricot should potentially increase relative to grape, sweet cherry and apple. Quamme et al ., 2012
ALTERED NATURAL ENEMIES The fitness of natural enemies can be altered in response to changes in herbivore quality and size induced by temperature and CO 2 effects on plants. The effectiveness of natural enemies in controlling pests will decrease : If pest distributions shift into regions outside the distribution of their natural enemies . A mismatch between pests and enemies in space and time. Evolutionary changes in both hosts and natural enemies . Thomson et al ., 2010
Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore Case study 1
Himachal Pradesh (HP) with 1.05 lakh ha area under apple cultivation. The Himalayan mountain ecosystem is also facing serious challenges posed by climate change due to Increasing aridity, Warmer winter season and Variability in receiving precipitation & snow. Mean surface temperature in the Himalaya rose by 1.5˚C from 1982 to 2006 compared to a 0.6˚C rise in the global mean from 1975 to 2005. Temperature increases are more during winter and autumn than during summer. Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore
Analysis of data Indications Last two decades of major apple-growing areas ( Shimla , Kullu , Lahaul and Spiti ) from November to April Minimum temperature is decreasing per year Maximum temperature has been showing an increasing trend Rainfall for the past 41 years recorded in Kullu district 77 mm increase during the period from November to May Snowfall in the entire region Decreasing at the rate of 82.7 mm/annum Reports from the Kullu valley in 1990s compared to 1980s Rainfall has decreased by about 7 cm Snowfall has decreased by about 12 cm Mean minimum temperatures have increased by 0.25˚C Mean maximum temperatures have increased by 1˚C Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore
Inference Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore Climate changes are visible clearly in the shifting of apple cultivation from lower elevations to higher altitudes in HP. Apple-growing areas in low altitudes like Solan have been reduced by as much as 77% between 1981 and 2007. Overall decrease of about 2–3% in yield has been reported.
citrus In Citrus, untimely winter rains promoted vegetative flushes instead of flowering flushes. Dry spell during flower emergence and fruit set affected flower initiation in citrus and aggravated pest incidence. Table : Effects of weather changes on crop growth in citrus Huchche et al. , 2010 Type of weather change Adverse effects Untimely winter rains during water stress period in December Water stress is broken, root system gets activated leading vegetative growth Sudden rise in temperature around 40 C in second fortnight of March Heavy drop of fruitlets takes place Hailstorm during fruit development period Extensive damage of foliation, bark of trunk and stems, heavy drop of immature fruits, lesions on the leaves and fruits due to fungal infection Delay in onset of monsoon of two-three weeks from the normal date Fruit growth is affected
Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore Case study 2 Objective: This study investigates increased frost risk associated with advancing citrus flowering dates during a period of climatic warming from 1960 to 2010 over the interior of Iran.
Materials and method: Evaluation of frost risk for citrus was done in Kerman and Shiraz, Iran, located at 1,755 m a.s.l . and 1,484 m a.s.l . respectively. The severity of frost events was recorded as the minimum temperature on days with T min ≤0 °C at post-peak flowering. Observation of five citrus types- 1. Orange ( Citrus x sinensis ), 2. Tangerine ( Citrus x tangerine ), 3. Sweet lemon ( Citrus limetta ), 4. Sour lemon ( Citrus x limon ) and 5. Sour orange ( Citrus x aurantium ) Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore
Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore
Inference The advancement of last frost date is slower in contrast to the advancement of flowering date in Kerman. If these trends continue beyond 2010, peak flowering and late frost dates for Kerman will intercept by 2082. Shiraz demonstrates a more rapid advance in flowering dates coupled with an advance in frost dates, sufficiently rapid (0.47 day/year) to prevent substantial frost risk. Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore
Mango The temperature during inflorescence is crucial. Cool temperatures and frosting - reduce the no. of perfect flowers drastically. High temperature and moisture stress - dehydration injury to panicles and low fruit set. Prolonged spell of cloudy weather- dropping of fruitless & flowers. Rains at flowering - causing total crops failure. Moist weather - attacks of mango hoppers and certain fungi causing heavy shedding of flowers and fruits, and many aggravate diseases like P.M. and anthracnose. Pre-harvest low light intensity due to cloudy weather- content of ascorbic acid and sugar in fruits. Bhriguvanshi (2010)
Months 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 Mean temp. (C o ) RH(%) BSS (hrs) Mean temp. (C o ) RH (%) BSS (hrs) Mean Temp. (C o ) RH (%) BSS (hrs) Mean temp. (C o ) RH (%) BSS hrs Nov. 24.9 (34.3-15.5) 45 8.9 25.4 (33.7-17.1) 47.9 8.9 25.9 (34.5-17.3) 49.9 8.9 25.8 (34.1-17.5) 45.5 8.5 Dec. 20.6 (29.4-11.7) 42 9.0 22.1 (30.4-13.7) 53.5 8.5 22.6 (29.9-15.2) 45.0 7.9 23.7 (31.2-16.2) 58.0 6.8 Jan. 21.5 (29.8-12.5) 25.1 8.9 20.6 (28.9-12.2) 45.4 8.4 19.7 (28.1-11.3) 42.0 8.5 21.68 (29.7-13.66) 56.1 7.5 Feb. 25.5 (34.7-16.3) 41.5 9.5 24.6 (32.2-16.9) 52.5 8.6 20.8 (29.5-12.0) 38.1 8.9 25.15 (33.85-16.45) 39.4 9.6 Mar. 27.1 (35.0-19.2) 43.2 9.7 27.8 (35.9-19.6) 38.0 9.8 27.8 (36.9-18.7) 42.7 9.4 28.91 (37.52-20.3) 38.8 9.9 Apri 30.5 (38.4-22.5) 22.2 9.4 31.4 (39.9-22.9) 34.9 9.9 30.4 (38.6-22.2) 46.4 9.9 32.2 (40.62-23.78) 36.9 9.6 May 32.3 (38.5-26.1) 36.3 8.8 32.0 (38.1-25.9) 56.5 9.5 31.4 (37.1-25.7) 59.2 9.7 - - - Jun 31.5 (36.5-26.4) 48.4 5.6 31.7 (36.5-26.9) 66.5 4.3 30.5 (34.5-26.5) 70.3 2.8 - - - J.A.U., Junagadh Varu and Barad (2009) Meteorological parameters like temperature, relative humidity and sun shine hours during flowering and fruiting period of Kesar mango during 2005-06 to 2008-09
Effect of different climatic parameters on area, production and productivity of mango in Junagadh region during 2005-06 to 2008-09 Years Area (ha.) Production (MT) % Change Productivity (ton/ha.) % Change 2005-06 15720 79149 - 5.03 - 2006-07 15930 103545 + 30.82 6.50 + 29.22 2007-08 16120 112840 + 42.56 7.00 + 39.16 2008-09 16880 54016 - 31.75 3.20 - 36.38 Varu and Barad (2009) J.A.U., Junagadh
Impact of climate change on mango
ADAPTATION TO Everyone’s talking about the weather but nobody’s doing anything about it. Mark Twain
What is Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation? Adaptation:- Adaptation is the process through which people reduce the adverse effects of climate and adaptation measures are meant to protect a community against projected climate change impacts. Mitigation: A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases, for example, reducing the carbon footprint of business operations by cleaner fuels, reducing electricity consumption, etc.
Types of climate change adaptation strategies for fruit crops 2. Long term climate change adaptation strategies Change in land use Heat and drought tolerant crop varieties Short term climate change adaptation strategies Land and water management Crop management Nutrient management Pest management Crop and cultivar substitution
Management of plant architecture Use of heat shock proteins Use of abiotic resistant root stocks Use of plastics for crop production To use the Agro- Horti cropping system Conservation of soil moisture Adaptation of fruit crops 46
Use green house technology if possible Use of green biomass for improving micro climate during hot weather. Use of shelter belts or wind breaks to over come the effects of hot wind with reducing the temperature. Water use efficiency and irrigation methods etc. Conti
Adopting proper policies and protocols at global, national and state levels. Strict adherence to rules and regulations. Reducing the rate of global warming by reduced consumption of fossil fuels. Use of clean and eco-friendly technologies. Promoting carbon sequestering / carbon locking / carbon trading. In-situ and Ex-situ biodiversity conservation measures. Creating all round public awareness Mitigation measures
Low winter chill affects tree behavior in 3 ways: delayed flowering, decreased flowering and lack of uniformity. The phenology , geographic distribution and local abundance of plants and pollinators appear to be affected by recent climate change. Climate systems may change more rapidly than in the past due to heavy industrialization, rapid utilization of fossil fuel and deforestation.. Shifts in precipitation patterns will affect most regions, with increased risk of drought. The projected climate change may have both deleterious & beneficial effects on fruit cultivation. Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore Conclusions
Transfer of climate-smart technologies from developed countries to developing countries Possible sources of technical & funding supports should be identified for promoting climate-resilient adaptation technologies. Research on physiological and genetic mechanisms for dormancy phase including its manipulation Assess separately the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on plant-pollinator interactions. Development of crop simulation model for horticultural crops for enabling regional impact, adaptation and vulnerability analysis. Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore Future thrust
FUTURE STRATEGIES
Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bangalore Case study 3 Acta Hort. 1029, ISHS 2014 OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to study the effect of climate change and climate variable conditions on litchi productivity and quality.
THE findings of research studies conducted at NRC for Litchi in Muzaffarpur , Bihar, India during the last decade (2001-2010) prove that changing climate is influencing the trend of litchi production system as well as areas under litchi plantations. The aberrations in weather like prolonged cloudy weather and rains during the full bloom hamper normal cross pollination and fruit set in litchi In addition, moist weather leads to severe attacks of mite and other insects as well as incidence of lichen growth on the trunk and branches causes bark splitting, leading to other fungus infeatation in the litchi crop. Preharvest low intensity sunshine due to cloudy weather reduces the content of ascorbic acid and sugar in the fruit. The studies prove that influence of climatic aberrations can be nullified to a great extent by practicing region specific adaptation measures like soil moisture conservation, pruning and canopy management, mulching, growing intercrops, water and nutrient management and pest management resulting in enhanced productivity and quality.