Climate Action Tracker - Achieving Net Zero: Opportunities to close the gap to 1.5◦C in Europe and beyond

Louise Jeffery, Swithin Lui (both NewClimate), Claire Stockwell, Paola Yanguas Parra and Andreas Geiges (all Climate Analytics) presented on "Achieving Net Zero: Opportunities to close the gap to 1.5◦C in Europe and beyond" at COP25 in December 2019.

1. Achieving Net Zero Opportunities to close the gap to 1.5◦C in Europe and beyond Claire Stockwell, Paola Yanguas Parra, Swithin Lui, Louise Jeffery, Andreas Geiges | Climate Action Tracker 6 December 2019 www.climateactiontracker.org

2. Outline Tracking progress on climate action New country analysis: UK, Germany, Kenya, Viet Nam Scaling up action at the sectoral level Assessing climate governance and its contribution to decarbonization Introducing our Climate Target Update Tracker First rapid analysis: Proposed Chilean NDC update Panel Discussion - Delivering on climate action in 2020 www.climateactiontracker.org

3. More ambitious NDCs needed by 2020 Insufficiency of NDCs was known in Paris Parties agreed to update their NDCs by 2020, backed by the IPCC SR1.5◦C SR1.5: Governments needs to rapidly reduce CO 2 emissions to net zero by 2050 and all GHGs by 2070 More than 65 nations communicated intention to increase climate action @ UN Climate Action Summit www.climateactiontracker.org

4. Climate Action Tracker www.climateactiontracker.org CAT Press Conference Tuesday, Dec. 10 @ 11am Room Mocha Tracks government climate action and measures it against the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal 36 countries covering over 80% of global emissions

5. New CAT country: United Kingdom www.climateactiontracker.org

6. New CAT country: Germany www.climateactiontracker.org

7. New CAT country: Kenya www.climateactiontracker.org

8. New CAT country: Viet Nam www.climateactiontracker.org

9. Paris compatible benchmarks Why do we need benchmarks? Identify best opportunities for raising ambition Provide guidance for NDC and LTS submissions How can we define benchmarks? Paris Agreement Goals - Emission budget for 1.5C Least-cost approach to sharing the remaining emissions budget Technical potential – technical methods (and limits) of a given sector Best practice – current best practice policies and their implementation www.climateactiontracker.org

10. Guiding the transition www.climateactiontracker.org Global National Sectoral detail Geographic detail

11. 10 short-term actions toward decarbonization www.climateactiontracker.org

12. Regional - Scaling Up www.climateactiontracker.org

13. Scaling Up - Argentina www.climateactiontracker.org

14. Scaling Up - Argentina www.climateactiontracker.org

15. Decarbonisation memos and data portal Tracking 41 indicators 20 countries Full, free access Interactive; full data download 8 memos published to date Transformation points Vehicle transport Buildings Heavy industry Appliances and Lighting Natural gas in power Agriculture Freight transport www.climateactiontracker.org Decarbonisation memo series Decarbonisation data portal

16. D ecarbonisation data portal – adding perspective Historic data for various sectors Policy projections and scenarios Sectoral benchmarks for industry, buildings, and transport indicators Illustrative example www.climateactiontracker.org

17. Rapid Phaseout of Coal needed to get to 1.5°C … and even to 2°C Coal power generation must: Peak by 2020 , and Rapidly decrease to 80% below 2010 levels by 2030 , and Be phased out by 2040 at the latest Single most important step to keep the door open for achieving the Paris Agreement

18. Reality check coal power generation Current coal power generation incompatible with  Paris Agreement . Gap will be growing substantially in next decade. No new capacity can be installed and operated over its full economic lifetime anywhere. Cancelling the planned expansion is a step in the right direction, but far from enough : Early retirements and reduced utilization needed.

19. Regional picture 2040 Region Phaseout Date OECD+EU 2031 ASIA 2037 LATIN AMERICA 2032 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA 2034 EASTERN EUROPE AND FORMER SOVIET UNION 2031 2030 Governments that continue with major thermal coal expansion : Governments that have decided to phase-out coal, but need further steps for implementation: Governments still wedded to a coal-fired future, but the reality on the ground is renewables:  

20. Benchmarks already in use www.climateactiontracker.org https://www.wemeanbusinesscoalition.org/blog/climate-ambition-benchmarks-defining-the-path-to-net-zero/

21. www.climateactiontracker.org https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/climate-governance/ Swithin Lui [email protected] Claire Stockwell [email protected]

22. Structure of the Framework www.climateactiontracker.org

23. Structure of the Framework www.climateactiontracker.org

24. Scoring and rating system Scoring Rating www.climateactiontracker.org

25. Countries covered www.climateactiontracker.org

26. Australia assessment www.climateactiontracker.org Assessment as of September, 2019 Key recommendations: Reinstate the Climate Change Authority and independent institutes in policy development and review. Submit a revised 2020 NDC with more ambitious targets for 2030 , and establish a GHG reduction goal for 2050 in line with the Paris Agreement. Live up to the Paris Agreement with establishment of adequate climate mitigation policy, and uphold political commitment to mitigation . Increase transparency of emission reduction policies and planning , including national projections and sector-specific models. For full assessment: https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/climate-governance-in-australia/

27. South Africa assessment Assessment as of September, 2019 Key recommendations: Pass the draft Climate Change bill . Designate sectoral climate focal points . Increase human and financial capital for climate processes. Develop Paris-compatible 2050 decarbonisation pathway with NDC update and IRP 2019. Transparently address influence and leverage of lobby groups aligned with fossil fuel industries. For full assessment: https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/climate-governance-in-south-africa/ www.climateactiontracker.org

28. Philippines assessment Assessment as of October 2019 Key recommendations: Maintain bespoke entity to address climate mitigation. Designate high-level sectoral climate focal points . Define a Paris-compatible emission reduction pathway . Convert 2019 State of Nation address on fast-tracking RE and cutting coal into policy action. Increase robustness of data and reporting on National Integrated Climate Change Database. For full assessment: https://climateactiontracker.org/publications/climate-governance-in-the-philippines/ www.climateactiontracker.org

29. Climate Target Update Tracker www.climateactiontracker.org

30. CAT Rapid Assessment – Proposed Chilean NDC Update www.climateactiontracker.org

31. Concluding Remarks The Climate Action Tracker will continue to rate and evaluate government climate action Expanding analysis in 2020 to include international aviation & maritime emissions www.climateactiontracker.org Scaling up Climate Action in Turkey Report Launch Monday, December 9 Turkish Pavilion @ 2pm

32. Climate Action Tracker [email protected] www. climateactiontracker.org Andreas Geiges [email protected] Louise Jeffery [email protected]

33. Panel Discussion – Delivering on climate action in 2020 Jenny Mager , Mitigation Coordinator, Environment Ministry, Chile Silke Karcher , Head of Division, EU Climate and Energy Policy, European Climate Initiative, Carbon markets, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Germany Andrew Marquard , Professor, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, South Africa Renato Redentor Constantino , Executive Director, Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, the Philippines Bill Hare , CEO, Climate Analytics Niklas Höhne , Partner, NewClimate Institute www.climateactiontracker.org