Climate change

On important fruit crops of Rosaceae family

1. “Farming looks mighty easy when your plough is a pencil, and you're a thousand miles from the field”   Dwight D. Eisenhower

2. University of Horticultural Sciences, Bagalkot KITTUR RANI CHANNAMMA COLLEGE OF HORTICULTURE, ARABHAVI 2 nd Impact of climate change on important fruits of R osaceae family Ch. Allaylay Devi UHS14PGM426 Dept. of FSC

3. Seminar outline - Introduction - Climate change - Effect of climate change Impacts of c limate Change on important fruits of Rosaceae family Adaptation and mitigation - Conclusion

4. Introduction The Earth’s climate, although relatively stable for the past 10,000 years or so, has always been changing, mainly due to natural causes such as volcanic activity. But since the 1900s more rapid changes have taken place and these are thought to be mainly man-made . Global warming mean temperatures increased by 0.74 C during last 100 years and by the year 2100 best estimates predict between a 1.8 C and 4 C rise in average global temperature, although it could possibly be as high as 6.4 C. IPCC, 2007

5. Climate can be contrasted to weather , which is the present condition of these same elements over periods up to two weeks. It includes the statistics of : Temperature Humidity Atmospheric pressure Wind Rainfall A tmospheric particle count and Numerous other meteorological elements in a given region over a long periods of time. Climate

6. Climate change refers to the variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time. UNFCCC defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.” What do you mean by climate change ?

7. The Greenhouse Effect Green house gases: C O 2 , methane, CO, CFC, Nitrous oxide etc. These atmospheric constituents will not absorb the incoming short waves but these will absorb the outgoing long waves reflected from the earth surface thereby warming the earth. There are 2 sources of the Greenhouse Effect : a ) The Natural Greenhouse Effect b ) The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

8. Natural Greenhouse Effect Without it, Earth would have no living things and would be more like Venus or Mars . This is because the temperature would be on average 30 C colder than it is . This is how it works with CO 2 , the major component. This effect is supporting existence of life in earth Enhanced Greenhouse Effect Due to increase in concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, much more of the heat energy from the sun is trapped in the earth’s atmosphere, making it hotter. This effect is mainly due to anthropogenic activities

9. Causes of climate change Natural Causes Anthropogenic Causes Continental drift Volcanoes The Earth’s Tilts Ocean Currents Intensity of Solar Radiation 1) Green Houses Gases Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) Nitrous oxide (NO 2 ) Chloro floro carbons (CFCs ) Ozone (O 3 ) Water Vapors (H 2 O ) 2) Land Use Change Deforestation Urbanization

10. Melting glaciers polar caps Decreased reflective surface Rising sea level Flooding of costal regions Deforestation Fossil fuel combustion CO 2 Aerosol propellants CFC-11 Refrigerants CFC-12 Warm oceans Decreased CO 2 solubility in water Garbage Swampy rice fields Cattle CH 4 N 2 O Biomass Burning-fertilizer O 3 Photochemical reaction Climate change Elements involved in Climate change

11. WHY CLIMATE CHANGE A CONCERN ? Rise in global average surface temperature of 1.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. Sea levels to rise 7-23 inches by the year 2100 . Carbon dioxide expected to be 100% higher in 2100. Annual river run off and water availability will increase at high latitudes and decrease in some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the tropics . Changes in rainfall and the disappearance of glaciers. The ability of ecosystems to naturall y adapt to changes in climate is likely to be severely reduced. IPCC, 2007

12. Climatic variables affecting fruit production Temperature Soil temperature and moisture Rainfall Light Wind Relative Humidity Hail Frost

13. Effect of temperature High Temperature: At critical high temperature, granules appear in the cytoplasm, viscosity increases and the cell membrane loses its permeability & coagulation of the entire cell contents takes place. High summer temperatures aggravates incidence of various pests and diseases. Low Temperature: It would appear that O 2 absorption proceeds at a much more rapid rate than O 2 elimination, which may result in the accumulation of toxic substances in the plant cells. Flower bud initiation is inhibited in many plants by high and in the others by low-growing season temperature

14. Effect of soil temperature Soil temperature exercises a considerable influence on growth and development of the plant. Besides influencing the water uptake and nutrient absorption, the soil temperature also affects the root development, cessation of growth and induction of dormancy. Effect of soil mois ture In general, fruits production is normally limited by the available soil moisture and many fruit trees, some fruit trees require a dry period to stop vegetative growth and induce flowering (Nakasone and Paull, 1998). Soil moisture determines the flowering time and germination of plants (Dreyer et al., 2006).

15. Effect of rainfall In general, heavy rains, even for a short duration, are more damaging than drizzling. Similarly, rains accompanied by low temperature and wind, are more damaging than the rain alone. Pre-monsoon showers destroy the complete crops of fruits like grapes and dates. Effect of relative humidity Extremely low or high humidity may affect yield through poor fruit set and excessive drop of the fruits in oranges, mandarins & most of the subtropical and temperate fruit crops. Low and high humidity affects fruit set as it may cause poor pollen germination owing to drying or desiccation of stigmatic fluid.

16. Effect of wind A reasonable amount of wind at the time of flowering aids in securing better fruit set. Orchards located deep in the valley , which are less exposed to wind, have better fruit set than those located in the exposed place on the windward side. Very high wind speeds are detrimental to fruit crops. Effect of hails Very harmful if it occurs at any time between flowering and fruit development stage. In temperate fruit orchards, hail destroys all the flower buds and injures almost all the developing fruits. On fruits, there is development of ugly spots.

17. Effect of light Light is the electromagnetic radiation within a certain portion of the electromagnetic spectrum It influence on flowering, growth and yield of plants especially the red and blue light The distribution of radiation in plant canopy is determined by several factors such as transmissibility of the leaf, leaf arrangement and inclination, plant density, plant height and angle of the sun Depending upon the photoperiod plants has divided into three: SDP, LDP and DNP

18. Frost - causing a regular /irregular damage. Spring frosts are particularly harmful to the plants in temperate climate . Frost may either kill the sexual organs of a flower or completely destroy the blossoms thereby influencing the fruit-set. Frost cause damage to the plant parts near the ground level since it is the coldest place Bark of the young trees is killed and cracked open and the inner-sap carrying tissues are ruptured through freezing. Effect of frost

19. Impact of climate change on important Fruits of Rosaceae family

20. Impact of increased temperature Increased temperature may inhibit or promote general growth and development such as abnormality in leaf development and underdevelopment of reproductive organs Insufficient chilling leading to changes in flowering phenology such as delay in flower bud bursting, early flowering, flower drop, poor fruit set, changes in quality, and increased incidence of pest and diseases Shift in the cropping pattern and suitability areas.

21. Indian J. Hort. 72(1), March 2015: 14-20 DOI : 10.5958/0974-0112.2015.00003.1 Impact of climate variability on apple production and diversity in Kullu valley, Himachal Pradesh Vijayshri Sen , Ranbbir S, Rana , R.C. Chauhan and Aditya Biology and Environmental Science, College of Basic Sciences, CSKHPKV Palampur 176 072, Himachal Pradesh Aim: To assess the impact of climatic factors on the productivity and biodiversity of apple in Kullu valley area

22. Figure : Trends of maximum temperature in Kullu valley Figure : Trends of minimum temperature in Kullu valley Figure : Seasonal variations in temperature in Kullu valley

23. Fig : Annual climatic trends in Kullu valley Fig : Rainfall trends in Kullu valley

24. Figure : November, December and January month rainfall trends in Kullu valley

25. Fig : Cumulative chill units trends at Kullu with Negative Chill unit UTAH model Fig : Productivity trends of apple crop in Kullu valley

26. Month Max. Temp. Min. temp. Rainfall Average/ total Y= ̵ 3.897x ̵ 0.002 Y= ̵ 0.069x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.689x ̵ 0.002 January Y= ̵ 0.224x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.103x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.006x ̵ 0.002 February Y= ̵ 0.279x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.437x ̵ 0.001 Y= 0.184x ̵ 0.002 March Y= ̵ 0.751x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.073x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.063x ̵ 0.002 October Y= ̵ 1.213x ̵ 0.002 Y= ̵ 0.377x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.016x ̵ 0.002 November Y= 0.142x ̵ 0.002 Y= ̵ 0.354x ̵ 0.001 Y= ̵̵ 0.044x ̵ 0.002 December Y= ̵ 0.502x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.038x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.112x ̵ 0.002 Table : Sensitivity analysis of apple crop with climatic parameters.

27. SI. No Particulars Percent response 1. Change in snowfall pattern 100 2. Decrease in area under apple crop 90 3. Change in apple traditional varieties 100 4. Increase in number of apple low chilli varieties 100 5. Alternative source of income 83 6. Decrease in apple production 100 7. Shifting of orchard to higher altitude 27 8. Stopped planting of apple crop 43 9. Change in choice of crop 63 10. Strategic measure adopted 77 Table : Farmer’s perception of apple biodiversity shift.

28. J. Agr . Sci. Tech. (2014) Vol. 16 : 863-872 Fruit set and yield of Apricot Cultivars under Subtropical Climate Conditions of Hatay , Turkey A. Polat , and O. Caliskan Department of Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, Mustafa Kemal University, Antakya/ Hatay , Turkey . *corresponding author; E-mail: apolar @ mku.edu.tr Aim: To evaluate the percentages of blossom , initial and final fruit set and yield parameters of Apricot cultivars for cultivation under subtropical climate condiitions

29. Month Temperature (⁰C) Rainfall (mm) Humidity (%) Min. Max. Avg. 2006 Jan. -0.5 20.6 11.5 22.0 56.3 Feb. 0.2 22.2 11.7 175.7 55.7 Mar. 8.7 28.7 16.3 76.2 57.8 Apr. 10.1 34.8 18.6 101.9 55.2 May. 10.8 34.2 21.1 98.0 50.7 June. 16.0 36.9 25.7 7.8 49.6 July. 20.5 33.5 28.0 4.9 62.1 Aug. 22.8 35.0 28.7 24.7 60.8 Sep. 19.0 35.0 26.0 140.8 59.7 Oct. 10.2 36.5 21.5 58.4 51.3 Nov. 0.6 27.7 14.3 88.8 48.5 Dec. -0.8 19.9 11.3 197.5 68.0 Table : Means of temperature, rainfall, humidity in the experimental area, Dortyol ( Hatay ), Turkey .

30. Month Temperature (⁰C) Rainfall (mm) Humidity (%) Min. Max. Avg. 2007 Jan. -0.3 19.5 8.8 165.3 49.2 Feb. 3.0 23.2 13.3 65.9 42.8 Mar. 5.5 26.4 14.8 78.4 52.1 Apr. 9.0 25.1 16.7 155.3 67.9 May. 12.7 35.3 20.8 74.1 57.1 June. 15.7 39.4 25.5 24.5 52.9 July. 20.8 37.0 28.0 80.8 58.0 Aug. 20.2 34.9 27.7 52.5 57.3 Sep. 17.7 36.2 25.2 79.6 55.7 Oct. 10.5 34.6 21.8 93.4 47.7 Nov. 8.3 28.5 17.2 102.4 45.4 Dec. -2.2 23.3 9.3 64.2 55.4 Cont.

31. Month Temperature (⁰C) Rainfall (mm) Humidity (%) Min. Max. Avg. 2008 Jan. 2.8 21.3 12.0 83.9 59.0 Feb. 0.3 20.1 9.0 166.1 58.7 Mar. 2.7 23.2 11.9 148.4 51.0 Apr. 8.4 31.0 16.9 112.2 55.2 May. 12 37.5 23.8 84.6 43.1 June. 15 36.6 25.3 55.1 61.8 July. 21.8 37.0 28.4 11.0 62.0 Aug. 21.6 36.3 29.2 0.1 58.4 Sep. 14.5 35.9 25.3 118.8 56.9 Oct. 5.7 31.4 21.7 94.6 58.2 Nov. 3.8 29.4 15.2 80.8 49.6 Dec. 0.7 21.4 11.3 130.5 54.9 Cont.

32. Cultivar Year Mean 2006 2007 2008 Blossoming (%) Precoce de tyrinthe 50.6 cd 91.5 ab 89.0 bc 77.0 cd Feriana 84.7 ab 91.2 ab 89.0 bc 88.3 abc Beliana 81.8 ab 90.7 abc 89.9 abc 87.5 abc Priana 57.4 c 90.5 abc 90.7 abc 79.7 bcd Bebeco 73.0 b 95.0 a 86.7 c 84.9 abcd Early kishinewski 42.3 d 86.1 bc 91.5 abc 73.3 d Precoce de colomer 89.3 a 92.2 a 94.4 ab 93.0 a Canino 82.9 ab 90.9 ab 92.2 abc 88.7 abc Silistre Rona 89.8 a 82.0 c 95.3 ab 89.0 abc Rouge de sernhac 81.7 ab 90.5 abc 96.6 a 89.6 ab Tokaloglu 77.5 ab 94.8 ab 92.3 abc 88.3 abc Mean 73.8 B b 90.8 A 91.6 A Table : Percentage blossoming of a pricot cv. grown in the Mediterranean climate in Turkey *Means within a column followed by different lowercase letter are significantly at the 1% by Tukey tect , Different capital letters indicate significant differences (P<0.05) between years

33. Cultivar Year Mean 2006 2007 2008 Fruit set (%) Precoce de tyrinthe 6.9 a 9.0 b 8.7 ab 8.2 ab Feriana 3.0 a 5.7 b 5.7 b 4.8 ab Beliana 6.2 a 8.8 b 11.3 ab 8.8 ab Priana 6.8 a 5.0 b 9.1 ab 7.0 ab Bebeco 0.0 b 4.6 b 4.3 ab 3.0 ab Early kishinewski 0.0 b 3.2 b 3.7 b 2.3 b Precoce de colomer 1.0 ab 3.8 b 4.0 b 2.9 ab Canino 0.0 b 3.8 b 3.2 b 2.3 b Silistre Rona 0.9 ab 3.2b 3.9 b 2.6 ab Rouge de sernhac 1.7b 8.0 b 7.1 ab 5.6 ab Tokaloglu 2.7 a 20.7 a 18.8 a 14.0 a Mean 2.6 B 7.5 B 10.4 A *Means within a column followed by different lowercase letter are significantly at the 1% by Tukey tect , Different capital letters indicate significant differences (P<0.05) between years Table : Percentage fruit set of apricot cv. grown in the Mediterranean climate in Turkey

34. Cultivar Year Mean 2006 2007 2008 Yield per tree ( kg/ tree) Precoce de tyrinthe 4.3 ab 47.7 a 34.9 cd 29 a Feriana 4.5 ab 8.4 cd 19.0 de 10.6 cd Beliana 2.8 bc 30.3 b 36.0 bc 23.0 ab Priana 1.7 cd 0.6 d 17.5 D 6.6 cd Bebeco 0.4 d 26.7 b 15.6 e 14.2 bc Early kishinewski 0.0 d 9.5 cd 5.5 e 5.0 cd Precoce de colomer 1.8 cd 3.2 d 16.3 e 7.1 cd Canino 0.3 d 1.1 d 15.0 e 5.5 cd Silistre Rona 0.5 d 1.2 d 5.0 e 2.3 d Rouge de sernhac 0.3 d 20.0 bc 63.5 a 27.9 a Tokaloglu 5.0 a 30.8 b 51.5 ab 29.1 a Mean 2.0 C 16.3 B 25.4 A *Means within a column followed by different lowercase letter are significantly at the 1% by Tukey tect , Different capital letters indicate significant differences (P<0.05) between years Table : Y ield per tree of apricot cv. grown in the Mediterranean climate in Turkey

35. Impact of increase carbon dioxide concentration in fruit crops Among the various greenhouse gases, CO 2 has important role in fruit production. Increased CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere has a fertilizer effect on fruits, which can lead to increased rate of photosynthesis, increase in growth rate and productivity of plants, It reduced transpiration and increased water use efficiency.

36. Effect of CO2 Enrichment on Fruit Growth and Quality in Japanese Pear ( P yrus serotina Reheder cv. Kosui ) Junki Ito, Shigeki Hasegawa, Kounosuke Fujita* , Shizuhiko Ogasawara and Tamio Fujiwara Hiroshima Prefectural Agricultural Centre, Higashi-Hiroshima, 739-0151- Japan Published online: 04 J anuary 2012 Soil Science and Plant Nutrition Aim: The effect of CO 2 enrichment at different growth stages of fruit on vegetative growth, fruit growth and quality in Japanese pear tree

37. Days after full bloom Fruit diameter Figure : Effect of CO 2 enrichment during the fruits growth stages on fruit diameter and stem diameter in Japanese pear cv. Kosui , Full bloom occurred on March 27 . Arrow indicates the time when CO 2 enrichment was initiated (52 DAB ) CO 2 enrichment CO 2 Control Days after full bloom

38. Days after full bloom Total sugar concentration Figure : Effect of CO 2 enrichment during maturation on total fruit sugar conc. in Japanese pear cv. Kosui CO 2 enrichment CO 2 Control

39. DAB* CO 2 enrichment Control Sorbitol Glucose Fructose Sucrose Sorbitol Glucose Fructose Sucrose 88 46.9 16.6 36.5 47.6 14.4 38.0 101 35.2 15.5 41.0 8.3 47.4 16.2 36.4 108 36.1 15.8 39.6 8.5 34.7 15.1 42.9 7.3 123 22.0 14.9 35.8 27.3 21.0 14.4 38.9 25.7 *Days after full bloom, LSD (0.05) for all the values was 7.12 Table : Effect of C0 2 enrichment on the composition of various sugar species in fruit of Japanese pear cv. Kosui during fruit maturation

40. Impacts on phenology One of the best-documented effects of climate change is the changing timing of activity, known as phenology (Cleland et al ., 2007). Flowering is one of crucial stages for fruit development affecting the production and productivity. In most fruit crops, generally higher temperature decreased the days interval required for flowering. Temperature not only influences the development of various parts of flowers but also determines the type of inflorescence. Rainfall during flowering adversely affects fruit set, fruit development and yield.

41. The Asian Journal of Horticulture volume 8 | Issue 1 | June, 2013 | 88-92 Effect of climate on vegetative, flowering and fruiting behaviour of hard pear ( Pyrus pyrifolia ) under Amritsar conditions B.S. Dhillon and B.S. Gill Received : 22.09.2012 Revised: 09.03.2013 Accepted : 25.03.2013 Department of Horticulture, Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Gurdaspur (Punjab) India Aim: To evaluate the growth and fruiting pattern of some farmer’s orchards in Amritsar district

42. Months Week Dates Air temperature ⁰ C (2008-09) Air temperature ⁰ C (2009-10) Max. Min. Mean Max Min Mean Nov I 1-7 25.89 15.03 20.46 27.57 16.00 21.78 Ii 8-14 28.53 13.61 21.07 24.71 13.42 19.02 Iii 15-21 26.69 9.27 17.98 24.34 12.11 18.22 Iv 22-28 25.43 9.86 17.65 22.57 10.14 16.35 V 29-05 25.14 11.71 18.43 22.57 9.28 15.92 Vi 6-12 23.86 10.71 17.29 20.42 8.14 14.28 Dec Vii 13-19 22.43 8.14 15.29 20.28 7.14 13.71 Viii 20-26 21.14 7.14 14.14 19.28 5.71 12.49 Ix 27-02 18.57 1.61 10.09 17.00 0.54 8.77 X 3-09 17.74 2.63 10.19 11.80 1.11 6.45 Xi 10-16 19.47 3.40 11.44 12.20 1.60 6.90 Table : Data of the temperature prevalent during the consecutive fruiting seasons of pear

43. Months Week Dates Air temperature ⁰C (2008-09) Air temperature ⁰C (2009-10) Max. Min. Mean Max Min Mean Jan Xii 17-23 18.93 4.99 11.96 12.60 0.22 6.41 Xiii 24-30 18.91 5.60 12.26 18.21 3.20 10.70 Xiv 31-06 21.14 6.80 13.99 20.07 4.65 12.36 Xv 7-13 22.27 6.49 14.58 19.57 6.00 12.78 Feb Xvi 14-20 22.84 7.56 15.20 21.00 4.71 12.85 Xvii 21-27 25.44 10.50 18.00 24.71 10.28 17.49 Xviii 28-06 24.97 9.38 17.14 25.42 11.71 18.56 Xix 7-13 26.42 9.85 18.13 27.67 10.21 18.94 Mar Xx 14-20 27.57 11.57 19.50 32.42 14.85 23.63 Xxi 21-27 28.00 15.42 21.71 36.57 18.57 27.57 xxii 28-03 27-14 15.11 21.13 35.00 19.28 27.14 Cont.

44. Orchard No. Date of leaf emergence End of leaf emergence Duration of leaf emergence (Days) 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 Block Verka I 3-5 Feb 21-24 Feb 28-3 F-M 21-24 Mar 29 30 Ii 3-5 Feb 21-24 Feb 28-3 F-M 22-25 Mar 29 31 Iii 4-6 Feb 20-22 Feb 1-3 Mar 21-24 Mar 26 30 Iv 4-6 Feb 20-22 Feb 1-3 Mar 21-23 Mar 26 30 V 4-6 Feb 20-23 Feb 1-3 Mar 22-25 Mar 26 30 Block Ajnala Vi 3-5 Feb 22-24 Feb 28-3 F-M 24-27 Mar 29 31 Vii 3-5 Feb 21-23 Feb 27-2 F-M 24-27 Mar 26 32 Viii 4-6 Feb 20-22 Feb 1-3 Mar 24-27 Mar 26 33 Ix 3-5 Feb 22-24 Feb 28-3 F-M 21-23 Mar 29 26 X 3-5 Feb 20-22 Feb 27-2 F-M 24-27 Mar 26 33 Table : Effect of climate on leaf emergence characters of hard pear

45. Orchard No. Start of flowering End of flowering Duration of flowering (Days) 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 Block Verka I 8-9 Feb 27-2 F-M 19-20 Feb 15-16 Mar 11 17 Ii 7-9 Feb 27-2 F-M 19-20 Feb 16-17 Mar 11 18 Iii 7-9 Feb 28-2 F-M 17-18 Feb 17-18 Mar 10 18 Iv 7-9 Feb 1-3 Mar 16-17 Feb 21-23 Mar 09 20 V 9-11 Feb 1-3 Mar 18-19 Feb 21-23 Mar 09 17 Block Ajnala Vi 9-11 Feb 28-2 F-M 19-20 Feb 14-16 Mar 10 15 Vii 7-9 Feb 27-2 F-M 18-19 Feb 14-16 Mar 11 16 Viii 8-9 Feb 27-2 F-M 18-19 Feb 12-13 Mar 10 14 Ix 9-10 Feb 1-3 Mar 19-20 Feb 16-18 Mar 10 15 X 7-9 Feb 28-2 F-M 16-17 Feb 15-17 Mar 09 16 Table : Effect of climate on flowering characters of hard pear

46. Orchard No. Flowering density (NO./m) Fruiting density (No./m) Fruit set (%) 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 Block Verka I 48.41 61.15 14.46 24.12 7.45 10.24 Ii 45.80 69.70 15.25 22.10 7.05 12.20 Iii 50.52 62.45 16.52 17.61 8.25 13.40 Iv 45.44 60.41 13.91 22.80 6.40 9.70 V 43.41 63.91 13.40 6.10 9.65 Block Ajnala Vi 44.45 60.90 13.70 16.42 6.70 8.70 Vii 45.40 62.44 15.10 20.47 8.15 13.45 Viii 47.71 68.43 14.12 23.15 7.44 12.10 Ix 40.50 69.12 12.15 25.75 6.04 8.90 X 50.65 62.95 16.17 21.90 8.40 14.10 Mean 46.22 64.15 14.48 21.34 7.19 11.24 C.D. (P=0.05) 3.88 3.39 2.28 3.34 1.61 2.37 Table : Effect of climate on flowering density, fruiting density and fruit set of pear

47. Orchard No. Fruit drop (%) Fruit retention (%) Fruit yield (kg/tree) 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 Block Verka I 28.71 20.82 72.10 78.60 40.35 80.42 Ii 20.81 16.14 70.15 76.10 37.40 78.90 Iii 21.15 15.39 68.12 74.25 31.10 74.40 Iv 18.22 14.70 64.86 72.21 28.70 70.10 V 20.77 14.85 67.39 70.85 32.75 75.48 Block Ajnala Vi 21.75 13.45 65.15 77.77 30.41 71.14 Vii 22.10 16.90 69.70 78.40 33.71 78.20 Viii 20.10 17.77 64.14 76.22 30.95 72.45 Ix 27.15 20.72 70.91 82.40 38.90 82.10 X 30.12 24.42 76.10 87.18 45.40 90.40 Mean 25.09 17.52 68.86 77.40 34.96 77.35 C.D. (P=0.05) 3.07 3.01 3.84 4.59 3.75 4.81 Table : Effect of climate on fruit drop (%), fruit retention (%) and fruit yield ( kg/tree) of pear

48. Impact of radiation on fruit crops Sunshine is a type of radiation that is needed for photosynthesis and normal plant growth Prolong periods of radiation can completely damage the stomata and destroy the plants Prolong radiation can completely destroy the fertility of a plant Increases cell mutation Damaged plant cells

49. Strawberry yield efficiency and its correlation with temperature and solar radiation Pedro Palencia, Fatima Martinez, Juan Jesus Medina, Jose Lopez-Medina Universidad de Oviedo, Esc. Politécn . de Mieres , Depto. Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, C/Gonzalo Gutiérrez Quirós s/n, 33600 Mieres , Spain . Horticultura Brasileira (2013) 31: 93-99 Aim: To assess the variation of temperature and solar radiation on strawberry production and crop cycle duration

50. Figure: Mean temperature and solar radiation for the years 2003-2006

51. Year Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Mean±SD Temperat-ure (⁰C) 2003-04 18.4 14.1 11.1 11.1 11.6 13.2 15.0 16.8 13.9±2.5 2004-05 18.3 12.7 10.8 7.5 8.3 13.3 15.9 19.0 13.2± 4 2005-06 17.5 12.0 10.7 8.3 9.7 13.3 13.3 19.7 13.1±3.6 Mean±SD 2003-06 18.1±0.4 12.9±0.9 10.9±0.2 9.0±1.5 9.9±1.4 13.2±0 14.7±1.1 18.5±1.3 13.4±0.6 Radiation mJ /m 2 2003-04 12.1 9.3 7.7 8.3 11.6 16.6 21.8 22.2 13.7±5.4 2004-05 13.3 10.6 9.6 11.1 13.9 15.2 23.3 25.8 15.4±5.6 2005-06 12.7 10.1 8.2 9.1 11.8 16.0 19.6 24.3 14.0±5.2 Mean±SD 2003-06 12.7±0.5 10.0±0.5 8.5±0.8 9.5±1.2 12.4±1 15.9±0.6 21.6±1.5 24.1±1.5 14.3±0.2 Table : Air temperature and solar radiation of each month during three crop cycle ( 2003-2006)

52. Year Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Mean±SD Second class fruit (g/plant) 2003-04 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.9 9.7 14.5 6.2±5.4 2004-05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 12.4 25.7 44.9 17.1± 16.6 2005-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.4 9.1 10.6 5.2±4.3 Mean±SD 2003-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1±0.1 1.3±0.7 7.9±3.2 14.8±7.7 23.3±15.4 9.5±5.6 Total yield (g/plant) 2003-04 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 91.9 197.7 340.5 364.9 199.5±146.7 2004-05 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 110.2 245.8 464.3 452.7 257.3±189.2 2005-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 101.2 250.1 243.1 203.5 161.9±107 Mean±SD 2003-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1±4.8 10.1±7.5 231.2±23.7 349.3±90.5 340.3±103.2 206.2±33.6 Table : Second class fruit and total yield of each month during three crop cycle ( 2003-2006)

53. Figure : Statical early yield model used as related mean radiation and temperature for the years 2003-2006. NS = non-significant; *; ** significant at p≤0.05 and p≤0.01, respectively

54. Figure : Statical total yield model used as related mean radiation and temperature for the years 2003-2006 NS = non-significant, *, ** significant at p≤0.05 and p≤0.01, respectively

55. Pollination Temperature If the temperature is either very low or very high there is no fertilization, thus affecting fruit set. - Most of the insects work well at or near 40 F & when the temp is either very low or high, they don’t take flight, which affects pollination and thereby the fruit set. Rainfall: Rainfall during flowering time affects the activity of pollen carrying insects. Wind: Pollen carrying insects work more effectively in a still atmosphere. Relative Humidity: Activity of bees and other pollen carrying insects is hindered under low or very high relative humidity.

56. Ecology letters, (2013) 16: 1331-1338 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12170 Biodiversity ensures plant pollinator phenological synchrony against climate change Ignasi Bartomeus , Mia G. Park, Jason Gibbs, Bryan N. Danforth , Alan N. Lakso and Rachael Winfree Department of Entomology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA Aim: To examine whether pollinator biodiversity could buffer plant pollinator interactions against the climate change, by increasing and stabilising phenological synchrony between apple and its wild pollinators

57. Figure : Map of the study area. The cross (+) indicates the location of the New York State Agricultural Experiment Station in Geneva, New York, USA.

58. Figure : Hypothetical scenarios of phenological advance. Bee activity (fine grey distributions) and apple peak bloom (thick black/red lines) are a schematic representation of our data . A stable scenario where both bees and apple change at the same pace. Change is indicated by the arrow direction between t and t 1 . Unstable scenarios where apple peak bloom advances more slowly (solid lines) or more quickly ( dotted lines ) than bee activity.

59. Year Collection day Mean April Temperature Year Figure : Change in temperature and phenology of apple and its pollinators over a 46-year period. (a) Apple peak bloom (fill circles and solid regression line) and bee specimens ( empty circles and dotted regression line) are shown. Some pollinator species extend into the summer making the bee intercept higher than for apple . ( b) Mean daily maximum April temperature is expressed in degrees Celsius. (b) (a)

60. Figure : Response diversity among bee species in terms of their phenological shifts over time. Figure : Synchrony between common apple-visiting bee species and apple peak bloom . Negative values indicate dates before apple peak bloom, and positive values after.

61. Impact of climate change in pest and diseases Climate change has brought about changes in the pest and disease incidence in fruit crops. Due to changes in flowering time and variations in temperature, introduction of new pests, attaining major pest status by minor pests and breaking of resistance can occur.

62. Earth Syst. Dynam ., 3, 33–47, 2012 DOI:10.5194/esd-3-33-2012 Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modelling in Switzerland M. Hirschi 1 , S. Stoeckli 2 , M. Dubrovsky 3 , C. Spirig 1 , P. Calanca 4 , M.W. Rotach 1,* , A. M. Fischer 1 , B. Duffy 2 , and J . Samietz Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss , Kr¨ahb¨uhlstrasse 58, 8044 Z¨urich , Switzerland Received: 18 August 2011 – Published in Earth Syst. Dynam . Discuss.: 25 August 2011 Revised: 16 January 2012 – Accepted: 26 January 2012 – Published: 27 February 2012 Aim: To examined the influence of climate change in Switzerland on the future threat of codling moth and fire blight

63. Figure : Seasonal (top row) and daily (bottom row) cycles of mean temperature (TAVG), precipitation (PREC ) and global solar radiation (SRAD ) for the station Wadenswil . Synthetic data are displayed in red, observed data in black. Daily cycles are shown for spring and summer in case of temperature and precipitation, and for spring in case of solar radiation (as only the codling moth flight start in spring is nfluenced by solar radiation). For temperature and radiation , results are presented separately for dry and wet days. Database is 29 yr of insitu observations (1981–2009) and 100 yr of synthetic weather.

64. Fig: Top row: in situ observations of first flight activity of codling moth in spring (left panel), as well as modeled flight start based on observed weather (middle panel) and based on present-day synthetic weather (right panel, station Wadenswil ). The vertical red lines display the medians of the distributions. Bottom row: modeled number of fire blight infection days per year based on observed weather ( middle panel ) and based on present-day synthetic weather (right panel). In the right panels, the p-values for the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney ( WMW) and the Kolmogorov- Smirnov (KS) tests are displayed for the difference between the distributions from synthetic weather and from observed weather (respectively, from in situ observations in brackets, if available ). For fire blight, also the p-values of the Binomial test applied on the annual occurrence and non-occurrence of infections is shown.

65. Fig: The flight start in spring from synthetic weather for present (“ctrl”, top panel) and future (“ scen ”, bottom panel ) climate at the stations W¨adenswil (left panels) and Magadino (right panels). In the bottom panels, the p-values for the Wilcoxon- Mann Whitney (WMW) and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests are displayed for the difference between flight start from present-day and future synthetic weather.

66. Fig: T he number of fire blight infection days per year from synthetic weather for present (“ctrl”) and future (“ scen ”) at the stations W¨adenswil (left panels) and Magadino (right panels).

67. Declining chilling and its impact on temperate perennial crops C.J . Atkinsona , R.M. Brennanb , H.G. Jonesc Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich and East Malling Research, New Road, Kent ME19 6BJ, UK b James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie , Dundee DD2 5DA, UK c University of Dundee at James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie , Dundee DD2 5DA, UK Received 8 November 2012; Received in revised form 29 January 2013; Accepted 1 February 2013 Environmental and Experimental Botany 91 (2013) 48– 62 Aim: To outline why winter chill is important biologically and how it impacts on the production of perennial fruit crops

68. Commodity Vegetative bud break Floral bud break Bud abscission Flower abscission Flower quality Reproductive morphology Fruit set Vegetative growth Crop yield Product quality Apple * * * * * * * Pear * * * Cherry * * * * Plum * Peach * * * * * Nectarine * * Apricots * * strawberry * * * * * Table : A summary of the different aspects of perennial fruit crop growth, development and production impacted by low winter chill.

69. Everyone’s talking about the weather but nobody’s doing anything about it. Mark Twain ADAPTATION TO

70. Adaptation and Mitigation Adaptation : Adaptation is the process through which people reduce the adverse effects of climate and adaptation measures are meant to protect a community against projected climate change impacts. Mitigation : A human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases, for example, reducing the carbon footprint of business operations by cleaner fuels, reducing electricity consumption, etc.

71. Develop climate-ready crop varieties Increase water saving technologies Changing planting date and i ncreased use of integrated farming system Crop diversification Provide more non-crop flowering resources in the field Integrated pest management Crop insurance Improved weather-base agro-advisory and nutrient management Harnessing the indigenous technical knowledge of fruit gro wers   Adaptation of fruit crops

72. Mitigation measures Reduce emissions of greenhouse gases Intensive increase in reforestation Restoration of degraded lands Increased use of composts Increase biomass to produce energy Land management strategies to increase soil carbon storage

73. Conclusion Low winter chill affects tree behaviour such as flowering and lack of uniformity. The phenology, geographic distribution and local abundance of plants and pollinators appear to be affected by recent climate change. Climate systems may change more rapidly than in the past due to heavy industrialization, rapid utilization of fossil fuel and deforestation.. It affected the normal growth and development, altered flowering behaviour , influenced the quality fruit production and has brought about changes in pest and disease incidence

74. Thank You