Climate Change and its Impacts

A Presentation on Climate change, Its Causes and impacts

1. Climate Change Aftab Hussain Rukhsana Hussaini

2. Videoo …

3. 3 What is climate change? Climate change  is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions.

4. Why Climate Changes There are both natural and anthropogenic reasons of climate change . Anthropogenic activities the most dominant with an ever increasing trend since the industrial revolution of 1940s. Population growth in developing countries, which makes about 70% of the comity of nations, has been too high putting an increased pressure on fixed natural resources and the compensation of increased demand for food and shelter through better socio-economic conditions. Temperature records of meteorological observatories (1500-2900 masl ) located in northern mountains of Pakistan from 1961 to 2010. Last decade has shown a sharp rise. (Source: PMD

5. Human Activities

6. Green House Effect

7. Man Vs Natural Activities Natural Activities Natural Factors which influence Climate Change have remained constant for centuries. Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the sun either remained constant or increased slightly. If the warming were caused by a more active sun, then scientists would expect to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere, and a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gasses are trapping heat in the lower atmosphere.

8. Evidence of Climate Change

9. FACTS & EVIDENCES From 1880 to 2012, average global temperature increased by 0.85°C. Oceans have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and sea level has risen. From 1901 to 2010, the global average sea level rose by 19 cm as oceans expanded due to warming and ice melted. The Arctic’s sea ice extent has shrunk in every successive decade since 1979, with 1.07 million km² of ice loss every decade Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) have increased by almost 50 per cent since 1990 Given current concentrations and on-going emissions of greenhouse gases, it is likely that by the end of this century, the increase in global temperature will exceed 1.5°C. The world’s oceans will warm and ice melt will continue. Average sea level rise is predicted as 24 – 30cm by 2065 and 40-63cm by 2100. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions are stopped. 2014 was the hottest year on record and  14 of the 15 warmest years on record have all occurred in the 21st century.

10. International Efforts against Climate Change

11. IPCC In 1988, UNEP and WMO jointly established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as concern over climate change became a political issue. The purpose of the IPCC was to assess the state of knowledge on the various aspects of climate change including science, environmental and socio-economic impacts and response strategies. The IPCC is recognized as the most authoritative scientific and technical voice on climate change, and its assessments had a profound influence on the negotiators of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol .

12. Cop-21 In 2015, France hosted 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), otherwise known as “Paris 2015” from November 30th to December 11 th . The main aim of the conference was to achieve a universal, legally binding agreement on combating climate change, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C. Another key objective was the mobilization of $100 billion per year pledged by developed countries, from public and private sources, from 2020. “Climate change does not respect borders, it does not respect who you are – rich and poor, small and big. Therefore this is what we call global challenges which require global solidarity .” Mr . Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations. Culminating a four-year negotiating round, the new treaty ends the strict differentiation between developed and developing countries that characterized earlier efforts, replacing it with a common framework that commits all countries to put forward their best efforts and to strengthen them in the years ahead. All parties were bounded to report regularly on their emissions and implementation efforts, and undergo international review . Call for a new mechanism, similar to the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, enabling emission reductions in one country to be counted toward another country’s NDC.

13. 13 Climate determines the type and location of human-managed ecosystems, such as agricultural farmlands. Climate affects the weathering of rock, the type of soil that forms, and the rate of soil formation. Why should we be interested in climate change?

14. 14 Climate helps to determine the quantity and quality of water available for human use. Climate determines the severity of droughts, storms, and floods . Why should we be interested in climate change?

15. Climate Change in Pakistan For Pakistani’s, Climate Change is no longer a distant threat-we are already feeling and experiencing its impacts across the country and the region. Losses in the 2010 floods alone exceed US$ 9.6 billion. Pakistan is signatory to all major UN climate change conferences Pakistan has an National Climate Change Policy. Pakistan is considered one of the top ten countries that are vulnerable to climate change .

16. Pakistan Climate Change and Vulnerability. As the rest of the world moves towards cleaner and renewable energy generation Pakistan is looking towards an energy generation future powered by coal. The developments of sources powered by renewable have been small in Pakistan. Pakistan aims is to add 8,100 megawatts of coal power to the system…. Pakistan’s contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very small about 0.08%. Projected Recession Of (HKH) glaciers threatening water inflow into Indus River Increased Intrusion of saline water into Indus .. A new study released by WWF-Pakistan has found that agriculture here could face a loss of up to 10pc of its output by 2040 due to climate change. These Threats may lead Pakistan into concerns on its… Food Security Water Security Energy Security National Security

17. Climate Change Pakistan Key features Third country most affected by climate change as per Global Climate Risk Index More rains in summer, and less rains in winter . Productivity of wheat and other winter crops is decreasing. Agriculture contributes 21% to the total GDP. Pakistan is an agrarian country, where 62% people depends on agriculture for their living.

18. Climate Change Pakistan Key features Increased health risk and CC-induced migration Increased in disasters such as floods, heatwave, siltation, GLOF. Loss in biodiversity Only 5.2% land area is covered by forest (in 2010); it should be minimum of 20-30% . Deforestation is at the rate of 2.1% per year (47,000 ha).

19. Climate Change Pakistan History of Climate related Disasters in Pakistan  Pakistan Floods (1950, 1956, 1957, 1973, 1976, 1978, 1988, 1992, 1995, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2012) Pakistan Floods 2010: (Around 2000 people died and over 20 million affected) 2007 Cyclone Yemyin July 2007: At least 730 people died, some 350,000 people were displaced, 1.5 million affected and more than two million livestock perished. Tropical cyclone also proved devastating in the recent past history of Pakistan 1998-2002 series of Droughts: At least 1.2 million people in Baluchistan were affected by drought, and over hundreds of people died, mostly because of dehydration, Millions of animals perished.  Heat Waves 1978, 1990, 1995, 1996, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016

20. Climate Change Pakistan www.ifrc.org

21. Ministry of Climate Change Pakistan has elevated the climate change division to a ministry .The Ministry of Climate Change has been vested with the mandate to comprehensively address Disaster Management along with spearheading national climate change initiatives both in adaptation and mitigation. Attached Departments National Disaster Management Authority ii. Pak EPA iii . Zoological Survey Department (ZSD) iv . Global Change Impact Study Center ( GCISC

22. Pakistan environmental protection Act, 1997  An act to provide for the protection, conservation, rehabilitation and improvement of environment, for the prevention and control of pollution, and promotion of sustainable development To implement the Pakistan environmental protection act,  Pakistan environmental protection agency was created as a department of Ministry of Climate. Pak-EPA is mandated to prepare or revise, and establish the National Environmental Quality Standards (NEQS) with approval of Pakistan Environmental Protection Council (PEPC);

23. Climate change Policy of Pakistan 2012 The National Climate Change Policy provides a framework for addressing the issues that Pakistan faces or will face in future due to the changing climate. Policy Goal To ensure Climate change is main-streamed into economically and socially vulnerable Sectors of the economy and to steer Pakistan towards Climate resilient development. In view of Pakistan’s high vulnerability to the adverse impacts of climate change, in particular extreme events, adaptation effort is the focus of this policy document Policy Objectives To pursue sustained economic growth by appropriately addressing the challenges of climate change; To integrate climate change policy with other inter-related national policies; To focus on pro-poor gender sensitive adaptation while also promoting mitigation to the extent possible in a cost-effective manner; To ensure water security, food security and energy security of the country in the face of the challenges posed by climate change ; To minimize the risks arising from the expected increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts and tropical storms;

24. To facilitate effective use of the opportunities, particularly financial, available both nationally and internationally ; To foster the development of appropriate economic incentives to encourage public and private sector investment in adaptation measures; To enhance the awareness, skill and institutional capacity of relevant stakeholders; To promote conservation of natural resources and long term sustainability

25. CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE (CCC ) Peshawar . Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) is sheltering a population of more than 20 million people. The major portion of this population is dwelling in rural areas and depends on farming for their livelihoods. Along with crop production and horticulture, livestock farming is also a dominant occupation of the rural communities particularly women. Changes in temperatures and uncertain hydrological patterns are expected to affect food security and access to water in this highly diverse and ecologically fragile province. Farmers are confronted with these changes and need to be supported in finding and developing adequate responses to these new challenges for ensuring their food security and resilience to weather extremes. Services of the Climate Change Centre (CCC ) Of all adaptation needs, the agriculture sector has to prepare itself the most for coping with climate change since food crops are highly sensitive even to little change in temperature and rainfall conditions , for this purpose CCC plans to: Establish a system of information provision and advisory on climate change adaptation accessible to organizations engaged in agriculture related activities (including farmer corporate/platforms). Serve as knowledge resource repository focusing on climate change adaptation in order to provide cutting edge information on CC adaptation. Sensitize and enhance capacities of the relevant departments (including applied research and outreach) to enrich their teaching, research and development agenda for addressing/linking to climate change adaptation needs. Serve as a bridge among multiple sub sectors of agriculture, Government, Non Government, Private sector for enhanced coordination. Establish regional/global linkages and to facilitate relevant department for appropriate research and development coordination.

26. What can be Done??? ADAPTATION MITIGATATION

27.  Adaptation is usually distinguished from coping , which is conceptualised as a short term mechanism of dealing with immediate shocks  Coping begins when a household is forced to mobilize resources to respond to crises  Also responses to declining food availability and entitlements in abnormal seasons or years

28.  The degree to which adjustments are possible in practices or structures of systems to projected or actual changes of climate  This is largely influenced by resilience within the system/community (UNFCCC, 2002 and Reid & Vogel, 2006)  It is also the ability of farmers to respond successfully and make adjustments to climate change

29.  Potential or the ability of a system region or communities to adapt to the effects or impacts of a stressor  Developed countries Vs Developing countries  Within countries (Low and High Favoured areas)  Within communities (The rich, the middle and the poor)  Gender, age, health etc (at family level)

30.  Human capital Knowledge on climate (scientific and local) Technical and political Education level/perceptions/health status  Information and technology Communication network (radio, TV, etc) Freedom of expression Technology transfer and packaging of information Innovative systems and capacity Early warning systems

31. Social & Organizational Capital State of CSO relationships Social mobilization Density of institutional network

32. Material resource and infrastructure Transport system Water infrastructure Sanitation Energy supply and management

33. Political capital Modes of governance Leadership legitimacy Participation in decision making Decision and management capacity Sovereignty (trans boundary water course)

34. Mitigation Mitigation is the effort to reduce loss of life and property by lessening the impact of disasters. Mitigating climate change is about reducing the release of greenhouse gas emissions that are warming our planet

35. Mitigation ..... The goal of mitigation is to avoid significant human interference with the climate system ... Switching to low-carbon energy sources such as wind power, solar, geothermal, hydroelectric or nuclear represents one of the major strategies for lowering the emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

36. Mitigation contd... Mitigation also extends to the protection of natural carbon "sinks" like the forests or oceans. New sinks can be created through, for example, forest regeneration. Tackling Waste

37. References https:// sustainabledevelopment.un.org/partnerships/goal13 http:// www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/ourwork/environmentandenergy/overview.html https://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/more-resources-on-climate-change/climate-change-lines-of-evidence-booklet / http://unchronicle.un.org/article/goal-13-taking-urgent-action-combat-climate-change-sdgs-and-paris-climate-agreement / http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals / http:// www.mocc.gov.pk/gop/index.php?q=aHR0cDovLzE5Mi4xNjguNzAuMTM2L21vY2xjL2ZybURldGFpbHMuYXNweD9pZD0xMyZhbXA7b3B0PXBvbGljaWVz