climatechangeimpactppt-180824092756 (1).pptx

im pankaj kumar departmenrt of entomology buat banda

1. Changing Climate and its Impact on Insect Pest Research Scholar Ms. Pushpa Singh (PZ-12036) Department of Entomology and Agricultural Zoology Institute of Agricultural Sciences BHU, Varanasi – 221 005 Course Seminar on

2. Overview of presentation Introduction Causes for Climate Change Present and future trends of CO 2 Effect of elevated CO 2 on host plants and insects Effect of temperature on host plants and insects Precipitation/rainfall. Impact of climate change on IPM Conclusion

3. Introduction contd … Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) The atmospheric conc. of CO 2 in 2005 - 379 ppm Preindustrial levels – 280 ppm Currently – 380 ppm By the end of this century – 560 ppm Temperature Temperature increased by 0.740 o C in 20 th century Sea level raised by 17 cms . Increase by 1.4 – 6.4 o C by the end of this century Increase in the frequency, intensity and duration of floods, droughts and heat waves. IPCC,2007

4. Precipitation Increased significantly in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, Declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of south Asia

5. Causes of Climate Change Natural Causes Continental drift Volcanoes The earth's tilt Ocean currents Anthropogenic Causes large-scale use of fossil fuels for industrial activities Greenhouse gases and their sources our daily lives contribute our bit to this change in the climate (http//:edugreen.teri.in/explore/climate )

6. Possible Effects of Climate Change Increase in frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation. Increase in tropical cyclone intensity. Decrease in water resources in many semi-arid areas, such as the Mediterranean Basin, western United States, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil. Possible elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and a resulting contribution to sea level rise of about 7 metres . Possible disappearance of sea ice – end of 21 st century. 20 to 30% of species assessed increased risk of extinction if warming exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degrees. ( Pachauri , 2008)

7. Increase Monsoon Rainfall : West coast, North A. P. and North-west India. Decrease Monsoon Rainfall : East M. P. and adjoining areas, North-east India and parts of Gujarat and Kerala. Increase in Temp .: West coast, Central India, and Interior Peninsula and over Northeast India. Decrease in Temp . : Northwest and some parts in Southern India. Glaciers in Himalayas are receding at a rapid pace. Indian Scenario of Climate Change

8. Predicted effect of climate change on Agriculture over the next 50 years Climate element Expected change by 2050 Confidence in prediction Effect on agriculture CO2 Increase from 360 PPM to 450 – 600 PPM Very high Good for crops Increased photosynthesis Reduced water use Sea level rise Rise by 10-15cm Very high Loss of land Coastal erosion Flooding Salinization of ground water. Temperature Rise by 1-2 O C Increased frequency of heat waves High shorter growing seasons Heat stress risk Increased Evapotranspiration Precipitation Seasonal changes by + or – 10% Low Drought Soil problem Water logging Storminess Increased wind speeds, more intense rainfall events Very high Lodging Soil erosion Reduced infiltration of rainfall IPCC 2001

9. Projected Impacts on Indian agriculture Increase in CO 2 to 550 ppm increases yields of rice, wheat, legumes and oilseeds by 10-20%. 1 C increase in temperature may reduce yields of wheat, soybean , mustard , groundnut, and potato by 3-7%. Much higher losses at higher temperatures . Productivity of most crops to decrease only marginally by 2020 but by 10-40 % by 2100. Possibly some improvement in yields of chickpea, rabi maize, sorghum and millets; and coconut in west coast. Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in north-western India due to reduced frost damage.

10. Need of studying climate change effect on insect Insects are the numerous form of animal on the planet with one million insect species described. Close to 80% of all animal species, human have described are insects. Insects are the most important from the point of 1.ecosystem functioning(energy recycling) 2. economically important crop pests vectors pollinators productive

11. In 1750 level of CO 2 in Atmosphere was 280 ppm Safe level of CO 2 in Atmosphere is, 300-350 ppm In 1750 level of CO 2 in Atmosphere was 280 ppm Safe level of CO 2 in Atmosphere is, 300-350 ppm 385.99 ppm Atmospheric CO 2 for November 2009 NOAA,2009 )

12. How enriched CO 2 benefits to C 3 Plants than C 4 ? Showed excess CO 2  gave a 35% photosynthesis boost to rice and 32% boost to soybeans (both C 3 plants), but only a 4% boost to C 4  crops Cure and Acock , 1986 

13. With rising CO2 levels……. C3 plant species continue to increase photosynthesis C4 plants do not. C3 plants can respond readily to higher Co2 level C4 plants can make only limited response Impact of Elevated CO 2 on Plants….. Increase: Photosynthesis Above ground biomass Increases the carbon to nitrogen ratio of plant tissues Ainsworth etal . (2002) Reducing the nutritional quality especially nitrogen Coviella et al . (1999)

14. Herbivores…. Increase: Food consumption Developmental time Reducing: Growth rates Food conversion efficiency Watt et al.1995 .

15. Effect of Elevated carbon on plants and hervivores T Cornelissen

16. How elevated CO 2 affect insect-plant interaction? By increasing References Food consumption by caterpillars Osbrink et al. (1987) Reproduction of aphids Bezemer et al . (1999) Predation by lady beetle Chen et al . (2005)

17. By decreasing References Insect growth rates Osbrink et al . (1987) Response to alarm pheromones by aphids Awmack et al . (1997) Effects of transgenic B.t Coviella et al . (2000) Nitrogen-based plant defenses Coviella and Trumble (1999) Cont….

18. Common name Host plant CO 2 Conc. (ppm) Effect on Host plant Impact on Insect References Gypsy moth Sessile Oak 530 42% increase in Starch. Decrease N , increase in condensed tannins RGR reduced by 30% Schafeltner et al ., 2004 Gypsy moth Red maple Amb.+300 Decreased N and Increased C:N ratio Reduced larval growth Williams et al ., 2000 Gypsy moth White oak Amb.+300 Decreased N and higher TNC Growth reduction in early instar Williams et al ., 1998 Gypsy moth Gray birch 700 Decrease N , increase in condensed tannins 38% decrease in pupal mass and decline in RGR Traw et al ., 1996 Beet armyworm Upland cotton 900 Decreased N, Increased C:N 25% increased in consumption longer dev. time Coviella and Trumble,2000 Elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) on insect-plant interaction

19. Tobacco Caterpiller Mung bean 600 Decreased N, increase in Starch and TSS Increased feeding and reduced growth rate Srivastava et al ., 2002 Western flower thrips Common milk weed 700 Decreased N and C:N, higher above ground biomass Density decreased, and leaf area damaged increased by 33% Hughes and Bezzaz, 1997 Cotton Aphid Bt cotton 800 Increase C:N , plant height , Biomass and leaf area Increased fecundity Chen et al ., 2005 Grain Aphid Spring wheat 750 Decreased N, Increased starch, sucrose, glucose, TNC , Free AA and soluble protein Population increased Chen et al ., 2004 Cont……

20. Insects Take Bigger Bite - Plants grown in Elevated CO 2 Under eCO 2 soybean lose their ability to produce jasmonic acid , and that whole defence pathway is shut down. Attract many more adult Japanese beetles than plants grown under ambient level. The beetles lived longer, and produced more offspring, than those living outside Evan Delucia , 2008

21. ELEVATED CO2

22. 1. Chemical composition of maize grains grown under ambient (350ppm) and elevated CO 2 (750 ppm ) CO 2 Level Measured indices Ambient CO 2 Elevated CO 2 Water (%) 68.9b 71.72a Nitrogen (mg g -1 ) 1.52a 1.31b TNC (mg g -1 ) 167.5b 174.8a Protein (g -1 ) 0.50a 0.41b Yin et al . (2010)

23. Life-history parameters of three successive generations (G1–3) of Helicoverpa armigera larvae fed on artificial diet and Maize grains Ambient CO 2 Elevated CO 2 Parameter G1 G2 G3 G1 G2 G3 Larval period(days) 10.7 aB 11.4 aB 15.5 aA 13.0 aB 14.6 aB 16.1 aA Pupal period (days) 9.50 aA 9.46 aA 10 aA 9.92 aA 9.80 aA 9.93 aA Adult period (days) 7.80 aB 7.33 aB 8.92 aA 7.85 aA 7.31 aA 8.23 aA Mortality 0.40 aA 0.34 bA 0.32 aA 0.44 aA 0.48 aA 0.41 aA Fecundity 661aA 586aA 565aA 702aA 386aA 589aA Fed on Artificial diet Yin et al . (2010 )

24. Ambient CO 2 Elevated CO 2 Parameter G1 G2 G1 G2 Larval period(days) 14.0 aA 14.1 bA 13.3 aB 15.7 aA Pupal period (days) 9.44 aA 9.48 aA 9.29 aA 9.41 aA Adult period (days) 9.71 aA 9.31 aA 9.68 aA 9.03 aA Mortality 0.09 bB 0.32 0.37 bB 0.6 aA Fecundity 668aA 391ab 391bA 414aA Fed on Maize grains

25. Fed on Artificial Fed on Maize grains Result: Population consumption by cotton bollworm on maize will be significantly increased under elevated CO 2 in the future Yin et al . (2010 )

26. TEMPERATURE TEMPERATURE

27. Global Top 10 Warmest years Years (Jan-Dec) °C °F 2010 0.62 1.12 2005 0.62 1.12 1998 0.60 1.08 2003 0.58 1.04 2002 0.58 1.04 2009 0.56 1.01 2006 0.56 1.01 2007 0.55 0.99 2004 0.54 0.97 2001 0.52 0.94 National Climatic Data Centre, NOAA, December 2010

28. Effect of Elevated temperature ---- Plants Parameter Effect Host plant Reference Decrease Qurcus robur Dury et al ., 1998 Foliar Nitrogen Increased Cardamine hirsuta Poa annua Senecio vulgaris Spergula arvensis Benzemer et al ., 1998 No effect Sugar maple- A. saccharum Williams et al ., 2000 Leaf Water content Decrease Sugar maple Williams et al ., 2000 Condensed tannin Increased Qurcus robur Dury et al ., 1998

29. ….. Herbivorous insects Extension of geographical range Increased over wintering Changes in population growth rate Increased number of generations Extension of development season Changes in crop pest synchrony Changes in inter specific interaction Introduction of alternative hosts Bale et al. (2002)

30. Extension of geographical range and population dynamics of insect pests : 1 C rise would enable species to spread 200km Northwards or 140m upwards in altitude. (Parry et al.1989) Earilar infestation by Helicoverpa zea in N. America (EPA,1989) and Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) in North India and exploitation to new areas . (Sharma,2005;2010) 2 C temperature increase insects might experience one to five additional life cycles per season. (Yamamura & Kiritani,1998) Population of rice stem borer & green leaf hopper increases with increasing winter temp. not by summer temp. . ( Yamamura,et al .2006) Mountain pine beetle, has extended its range northward by 300 km with temp. increase of 1.9 o C (Logan and Powell, 2001).

31. Survival and reproduction : Of 46 species of butterflies that approached their northern climatic range in Britain three-quarters of them declined , dual factors of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced number of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists. Warren et al . (2001) Some species may be able to complete more generations in a year. This may be most noticeable in insects with short lifecycle such as aphids and diamond back moth. In aphids a increase of 2 o C temperature causes one to five additional life cycles per season. Warm temperature have halved the time required to reproduce in Spruce beetle , Dentroctonus rufipennis .

32. Ostrinia nubilalis is predicted to become bivoltine due to increases in temperatures during the period 2025-50 Trnka et al. (2007) Larval development and adult fecundity of winter moth was adversely affected by increased temperature on Q. robur Dury et al . (1998) An increase in 1-3 C in temp. will cause northwards shifts in potential distribution of Eoropean cornborer Ostrinia nubalis (Hub.) upto1,220 kms with an additional generation in all known areas currently occuring . Portal et al.1991.

33. Changes in crop pest synchrony : Associated advancement in the phenology of life history events for many plant and insect species . Climate change will disrupt or even eliminate mutualistic interactions among species, such as pollination and seed dispersion Of 1,419 species of pollinating insects on 429 plant species, between 17% and 50% of all pollinators analyzed suffered a reduction in food supply with a phenological advance of two weeks of their floral resources. ( Memmott   et al  2007) . Operophtera brumata  (L.) winter moth eggs tend to hatch before the leaves of their host  Quercus robur  is available and in some years more than 90% of the eggs hatch before oak bud burst. ( Visser & Holleman 2001)

34. At higher temperatures, aphids have been shown to be less responsive to alarm pheromone resulting in potential for greater predation. Changes in synchrony of prey –predator interaction : Awmack et al.2007 Temp. influcened the fecundity and sex ratio of Compoletis chloridae larval parasitoid of Helicoverpa armigera . ( Dhillon and Sharma,2009) Oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata populations increases during extended period of drought ,which is detrimental to natural enemies. (Sharma et al.2002).

35. ELEVATED TEMPERATURE

36. 1. Effect of increased temperature on oak procession caterpillar problem in Netherland OPC has increased steadily over the years, moving in north-eastern direction Observed 1°C increase in temperature and the corresponding increase in growing season length in the recent decades have stimulated the spreading Alexander et al .,2008 1991/1993 2006/2007 OPC distribution maps

37. 2.Interaction between Pentatomid bug, Oechalia schellenbergii and cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera when feeding on peas Pea plants had reduced nitrogen content when grown under higher levels of CO 2 and this in turn influenced the size of the cotton bollworm larvae Predatory bugs were more effective under higher CO 2 levels because they appeared to be better at subduing the smaller bollworm larvae. Result indicating that elevated CO2 may benefit generalist predators through increased prey vulnerability. Within the parasititoids the specialists which are host specific are likely to be more adversely affected than generalist. Coll and Hughes,2008

38. Interactive Effects of eCO 2  and eTemperature Nitrogen concentration………Decreased. C:N ratio……………Increased. Carbon based secondary compounds……….No significant response. Hervivors performance……………….No detectable Effect. Zvereva & Kozlov (2006)

39. Precipitation / Rainfall Unpredictable rains might disrupt the parasitoids ability to track their caterpillar hosts. Too much water will be devastating for some pests especially soil dwelling insects. Rain drops can physically dislodge insects from their host plant and behavior patterns can be disrupted in small insects such as thrip . Some pest species are suppressed by periods of rainfall , by outbreak of fungal diseases as observed among aphids on lettuce and Brassica crops. It is anticipated that the cut worm outbreaks may become more frequent due to effect of summer rains . Pesticide application and efficiency is also affected.

40. Impact of climate change on IPM Many of the IPM programmes need to be modified greatly or to some extent to address several important effects of increasing temperatures. Each new technique recommended has to be evaluated whether and how it suits to changed pest dynamics due to climate change . Effects of climate change Revision in IPM recommended Insect development is more rapid at higher temperature and population develops faster and crop damage occurs more rapidly . Treatment thresholds based on insects per plant need to be reduced to prevent unacceptable loses. Even modest increase in temperature can reduce effectiveness of insect pathogens.( Sharce et al., 2007). Timing of use of biological control agents and their amount may need revision. Increased winter temperatures and elimination of frost may allow insect expansion into new areas. Such changes should be predicted earlier and suitable management practices be introduced.

41. Responses of organisms to climate changes will be species-specific and might occur at different rates, potentially altering community structure and the ecological roles of several species in maintaining ecosystem processes and services. Insects have great potential to develop physiological and behavioral adaptations, which may improve their fitness under new conditions. This may ultimately lead to the formation of genetically differentiated population and possibly new species, especially when climatic change is associated with range expansion and host switch. Biology and life cycles of several arthopods will keep altering under changes in climate that ultimately could affect many sucessful pest management practices . Conclusion

42. Remote sensing , and GIS system can be helpful in developing forecasting systems of insect pest. To achieve these goals entomologist, agro-meteorologist, agronomist and statistician have to work as a team, only then some workable prediction models can be developed. Best use of the basics of IPM such as field monitoring, pest forecasting, recordkeeping, and choosing economically and environmentally sound control measures will be most successful in dealing with the effects of climate change. On the whole, there are still many unknowns in the climate change equation.

43. References: Awmack , C.S., C.M. Woodcock and R. Harrington. 1997. Climate change may increase vulnerability of aphids to natural enemies. Ecological Entomology. 22:366-368.   Bale, J.S. G.J. Masters, I.D. Hodkinson , C. Awmack , T.M. Bezemer , V.K. Brown, J.Butterfield , A. Buse , J.C. Coulson , J. Farrar, J.E.G. Good, R. Harrington, S. Hartley, T.H. Jones. R.L. Lindroth , M.C. Press, I. Symrnioudis , A.D. Watt, and J.B. Whittaker. 2002.Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperatures on insect herbivores. Global Change Biology 8:1-16. Coviella , C. and J. Trumble . 1999. Effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on insect plant interactions. Conservation Biology 13:700-712.   Hamilton, J.G., O. Dermody , M. Aldea , A.R. Zangerl , A. Rogers, M.R. Berenbaum , and E. Delucia . 2005. Anthropogenic Changes in Tropospheric Composition Increase Susceptibility of Soybean to Insect Herbivory . Envirn . Entomol . 34:2 479-485. Hunter, M.D. 2001. Effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on insect-plant interactions. Ag. Forest. Entomol . 3:153-159.   Lewis, T. 1997. Thrips as crop pests. CAB International, Cambridge: University Press. 740 pp.

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