climateoutlook monthly rainfall forecast Normal, percentand probabilistic
MarkJaquias
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Jun 06, 2024
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About This Presentation
Climate
Slide Content
CLIMATE
OUTLOOK
DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024
Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Presented by:
RUSY G. ABASTILLAS
Senior Weather Specialist, CLIMPS-CAD
OUTLOOK
DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024
Prepared by:
PAGASA-DOST
Climatology & Agrometeorology Division (CAD)
Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
Presented by:
RUSY G. ABASTILLAS
Senior Weather Specialist, CLIMPS-CAD
ENSO Update
Climate Outlook
(DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024)
Summary
Climate Outlook
(DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024)
Summary
Conditions in the Tropical Pacific
Oceanic Indicator
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
El Niño Update
as of 20 November2023
⮚In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above
average across most of the Pacific Ocean, with near-to-
below average SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric Indicator
➢Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and
precipitation) were evident around Indonesia, the Philippines,
and Australia.
➢Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and
precipitation) were observed from the Date Line and extend
into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Oceanic Indicator
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstanim.shtml
El Niño Update
as of 20 November2023
⮚In the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above
average across most of the Pacific Ocean, with near-to-
below average SSTs in the western Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric Indicator
➢Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and
precipitation) were evident around Indonesia, the Philippines,
and Australia.
➢Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and
precipitation) were observed from the Date Line and extend
into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
➢Positive subsurface temperature
anomalies dominate most of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.
➢Positive subsurface temperature anomalies
strengthened between 170ºE-130ºW.
➢During the last 4 weeks, above-average
SSTs have strengthened near the Date
Line and in the east-central Pacific. Below-
average SSTs have strengthened in the far
western Pacific Ocean.
El Niño Update
as of 20 November2023
anomalies dominate most of the
equatorial Pacific Ocean.
➢Positive subsurface temperature anomalies
strengthened between 170ºE-130ºW.
➢During the last 4 weeks, above-average
SSTs have strengthened near the Date
Line and in the east-central Pacific. Below-
average SSTs have strengthened in the far
western Pacific Ocean.
El Niño Update
as of 20 November2023
TARGET
> 0.5
o
C
(WEAK EL NIÑO)
> 1.0
o
C
(MODERATE EL
NIÑO)
> 1.5
o
C
(STRONG EL
NIÑO)
OND ~100 ~100 94
NDJ ~100 ~100 87
DJF ~100 97 73
JFM 99 91 56
FMA 97 75 30
MAM 88 46 9
AMJ 62 19 2
MJJ 40 9 1
JJA 27 6 1
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume
What are the chances?
Model output (Purely objective)
ENSO probability forecast
ENSO STRENGTHS
Model output + Expert judgment
ENSO probability forecast
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
OND 0 0 100
NDJ 0 0 100
DJF 0 0 100
JFM 0 1 99
FMA 0 3 97
MAM 0 12 88
AMJ 1 37 62
MJJ 5 55 40
JJA 15 58 27
> 0.5
o
C
(WEAK EL NIÑO)
> 1.0
o
C
(MODERATE EL
NIÑO)
> 1.5
o
C
(STRONG EL
NIÑO)
OND ~100 ~100 94
NDJ ~100 ~100 87
DJF ~100 97 73
JFM 99 91 56
FMA 97 75 30
MAM 88 46 9
AMJ 62 19 2
MJJ 40 9 1
JJA 27 6 1
https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume
What are the chances?
Model output (Purely objective)
ENSO probability forecast
ENSO STRENGTHS
Model output + Expert judgment
ENSO probability forecast
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/strengths/index.php
Season La Niña Neutral El Niño
OND 0 0 100
NDJ 0 0 100
DJF 0 0 100
JFM 0 1 99
FMA 0 3 97
MAM 0 12 88
AMJ 1 37 62
MJJ 5 55 40
JJA 15 58 27
until when?
Global Model Forecast Guidance
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates El Niño will
continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. A
moderate-to-strong El Niño is favored in December-February (ONI
between 1.0ºC and 2.0ºC).
•The majority of models indicate El Niño will persist through
April-June 2024 and then transition to ENSO-neutral.
•At its peak (November-January), nearly all models suggest
a moderate-to-strong El Niño (ONI values at or greater than
1.0ºC).
The ECMWF ensemble favor a strong El Niño in the coming months.
El Niño Update
as of 20 November2023
Global Model Forecast Guidance
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) indicates El Niño will
continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024. A
moderate-to-strong El Niño is favored in December-February (ONI
between 1.0ºC and 2.0ºC).
•The majority of models indicate El Niño will persist through
April-June 2024 and then transition to ENSO-neutral.
•At its peak (November-January), nearly all models suggest
a moderate-to-strong El Niño (ONI values at or greater than
1.0ºC).
The ECMWF ensemble favor a strong El Niño in the coming months.
El Niño Update
as of 20 November2023
ENSO Alert System Status:
El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts
(such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country which will likely be manifested during the
last quarter of the year up to the first quarter of the following year.
•A strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific, showing signs of further
intensification in the coming months as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs)
reach more than 1.5⁰C.
•El Niño will likely continue until the second quarter of 2024.
El Nino Advisory #5: issued 07 November 2023
EL NIÑO ADVISORY
El Niño increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions, which could bring negative impacts
(such as dry spells and droughts) in some areas of the country which will likely be manifested during the
last quarter of the year up to the first quarter of the following year.
•A strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific, showing signs of further
intensification in the coming months as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs)
reach more than 1.5⁰C.
•El Niño will likely continue until the second quarter of 2024.
El Nino Advisory #5: issued 07 November 2023
EL NIÑO ADVISORY
Weather systems that may affect the country
December 2023 – May 2024
EASTERLIES
LOCALIZED
THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHEAST
MONSOON
RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AREA
(HPA)
FRONTAL
SYSTEM
SHEAR LINE
L
LOW PRESSURE AREA
(LPA)
TROPICAL CYCLONES
(TCs)
INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE
(ITCZ)
December 2023 – May 2024
EASTERLIES
LOCALIZED
THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHEAST
MONSOON
RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AREA
(HPA)
FRONTAL
SYSTEM
SHEAR LINE
L
LOW PRESSURE AREA
(LPA)
TROPICAL CYCLONES
(TCs)
INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE
(ITCZ)
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION
Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal
For more details
and updates
Rainfall Surplus or Reduction
ABOUT OUR RAINFALL MAPS
Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 – 80 below normal
81 – 120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal
For more details
and updates
Rainfall Surplus or Reduction
ABOUT OUR RAINFALL MAPS
DECEMBER 2023
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 31 53 0
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 31 53 0
JANUARY 2024
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
31 53 0 0
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
31 53 0 0
FEBRUARY 2024
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
69 15 0 0
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
69 15 0 0
MARCH 2024
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
34 48 2 0
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
34 48 2 0
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
APRIL 2024
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
5 73 6 0
Normal Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
Forecast Rainfall
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
5 73 6 0
MAY 2024
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 67 17 0
Normal Rainfall Forecast Rainfall Percent of Normal Probabilistic Forecast
MONTHLY RAINFALL FORECAST
way below normal below normal near normal above normal
0 67 17 0
PROVINCE DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 50.7 21.6 5.2 16.1 49.0 81.3
BENGUET 54.0 21.0 4.2 36.4 73.2 78.2
IFUGAO 59.0 36.3 12.5 41.0 66.5 78.8
KALINGA 56.2 30.1 10.7 31.9 61.3 81.1
APAYAO 56.1 39.8 18.1 30.9 55.3 87.8
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 56.8 30.3 9.7 34.8 63.5 79.5
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 47.2 26.8 7.3 12.5 24.8 85.1
ILOCOS SUR 51.2 15.3 2.9 19.7 56.2 79.1
LA UNION 51.0 16.6 1.5 32.3 83.9 76.8
PANGASINAN 46.9 12.6 2.5 20.1 72.9 68.5
REGION II
BATANES 87.7 72.9 49.5 85.0 64.3 92.0
CAGAYAN 64.2 49.8 26.0 46.1 60.6 88.5
ISABELA 65.8 48.4 19.7 47.3 65.7 78.5
NUEVA VIZCAYA 59.2 31.8 17.7 44.9 66.7 77.4
QUIRINO 66.8 48.8 30.6 57.1 76.3 78.3
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 49.9 18.5 7.0 18.1 12.3 64.3
BULACAN 74.8 41.5 29.6 42.9 75.3 70.5
NUEVA ECIJA 58.1 23.1 20.3 38.3 58.2 71.6
PAMPANGA 63.1 33.2 29.9 32.8 52.2 67.9
TARLAC 51.7 19.6 16.8 24.4 56.3 66.0
ZAMBALES 43.3 14.5 7.9 18.4 60.7 63.6
AURORA 70.4 52.3 45.2 67.3 79.9 78.5
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 78.7 25.2 9.2 22.2 55.7 58.5
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 77.0 39.7 19.4 27.0 48.4 65.8
CAVITE 71.9 26.7 8.8 16.0 7.5 60.6
LAGUNA 82.3 40.4 21.5 36.4 67.8 64.7
RIZAL 80.4 38.6 14.1 37.7 71.8 66.0
QUEZON 85.0 62.2 33.0 54.7 55.5 62.0 PROVINCE DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 83.9 60.5 28.1 43.8 48.2 56.0
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 66.0 40.5 14.9 25.0 36.0 56.6
ORIENTAL MINDORO 73.2 46.1 21.1 31.2 44.9 57.2
ROMBLON 83.7 52.8 20.1 36.9 45.9 51.3
PALAWAN 65.5 22.0 10.1 12.6 41.6 59.3
SPRATLY ISLANDS 58.6 18.2 9.2 14.1 40.6 57.7
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 81.6 54.6 21.0 60.4 60.1 51.7
CAMARINES NORTE 89.0 61.7 33.5 45.7 42.9 55.2
CAMARINES SUR 85.6 54.2 23.0 47.8 65.0 51.9
CATANDUANES 83.3 49.7 35.1 49.4 68.9 53.0
MASBATE 86.2 55.8 21.6 39.0 41.7 48.9
SORSOGON 84.9 57.1 27.9 49.0 65.1 50.6
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN 80.6 52.1 26.4 31.3 61.4 60.3
ANTIQUE 77.7 35.9 20.0 26.9 42.0 64.9
CAPIZ 84.4 55.3 29.3 31.8 65.4 63.4
GUIMARAS 84.5 27.1 16.0 27.2 31.6 74.8
ILOILO 83.7 40.7 22.5 29.7 46.8 68.1
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 84.0 32.4 20.7 31.9 43.9 68.1
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 80.9 33.0 28.6 41.5 41.6 66.9
BOHOL 87.5 48.8 33.2 52.2 51.2 51.9
CEBU 85.8 45.3 30.4 45.9 45.8 53.4
SIQUIJOR 80.7 40.0 32.9 50.9 42.3 64.0
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 91.3 57.0 24.1 47.1 56.6 52.0
EASTERN SAMAR 91.9 64.1 30.3 51.3 73.5 65.3
LEYTE 90.7 56.7 30.2 49.1 58.1 57.2
NORTHERN SAMAR 93.5 61.0 28.1 48.0 56.7 49.7
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 92.8 60.8 25.7 50.4 64.6 57.0
SOUTHERN LEYTE 88.4 54.4 35.9 46.4 62.9 55.9 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (December 2023 - May 2024) as of November 20, 2023 PROVINCE DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 82.5 37.1 30.8 36.6 59.4 70.7
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 84.6 40.7 34.1 41.0 63.6 73.6
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 85.7 38.7 34.0 41.8 60.1 73.3
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 88.0 57.3 42.8 65.8 60.8 85.4
CAMIGUIN 84.2 50.7 31.4 58.3 60.1 68.0
LANAO DEL NORTE 80.1 46.6 31.2 48.5 59.8 76.8
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 78.8 42.5 28.4 39.4 62.5 70.7
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 82.2 49.1 28.4 61.5 53.6 77.9
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
DAVAO DE ORO 88.8 71.9 44.9 69.3 87.0 90.5
DAVAO CITY 90.9 72.4 51.2 84.8 85.2 90.4
DAVAO DEL NORTE 90.4 70.9 53.2 77.0 77.7 91.9
DAVAO DEL SUR 90.7 76.9 38.5 78.7 86.4 82.1
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 90.3 78.4 30.4 69.1 79.8 76.6
DAVAO ORIENTAL 88.2 73.5 40.4 67.4 82.2 86.6
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 89.9 77.7 32.7 65.4 77.5 75.1
COTABATO 88.3 70.4 47.4 67.9 74.2 84.1
SARANGANI 90.3 78.6 29.1 65.8 80.0 73.9
SULTAN KUDARAT 88.3 73.0 40.5 61.0 72.2 78.0
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 87.9 71.7 41.5 72.2 67.7 77.8
AGUSAN DEL SUR 89.9 72.4 51.9 74.0 74.1 85.9
DINAGAT ISLANDS 87.5 66.4 44.2 58.3 69.8 67.7
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 86.7 71.7 48.7 67.4 71.6 72.7
SURIGAO DEL SUR 89.0 77.7 54.7 74.8 77.0 83.0
BARMM
BASILAN 91.0 33.2 35.4 44.0 65.7 76.8
MAGUINDANAO 86.5 70.7 47.1 55.5 72.2 80.2
LANAO DEL SUR 82.6 54.0 38.1 53.4 65.0 80.5
SULU 83.8 32.5 29.6 43.1 61.5 72.1
TAWI-TAWI 79.0 31.3 24.9 39.1 57.2 68.3
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 50.7 21.6 5.2 16.1 49.0 81.3
BENGUET 54.0 21.0 4.2 36.4 73.2 78.2
IFUGAO 59.0 36.3 12.5 41.0 66.5 78.8
KALINGA 56.2 30.1 10.7 31.9 61.3 81.1
APAYAO 56.1 39.8 18.1 30.9 55.3 87.8
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 56.8 30.3 9.7 34.8 63.5 79.5
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 47.2 26.8 7.3 12.5 24.8 85.1
ILOCOS SUR 51.2 15.3 2.9 19.7 56.2 79.1
LA UNION 51.0 16.6 1.5 32.3 83.9 76.8
PANGASINAN 46.9 12.6 2.5 20.1 72.9 68.5
REGION II
BATANES 87.7 72.9 49.5 85.0 64.3 92.0
CAGAYAN 64.2 49.8 26.0 46.1 60.6 88.5
ISABELA 65.8 48.4 19.7 47.3 65.7 78.5
NUEVA VIZCAYA 59.2 31.8 17.7 44.9 66.7 77.4
QUIRINO 66.8 48.8 30.6 57.1 76.3 78.3
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 49.9 18.5 7.0 18.1 12.3 64.3
BULACAN 74.8 41.5 29.6 42.9 75.3 70.5
NUEVA ECIJA 58.1 23.1 20.3 38.3 58.2 71.6
PAMPANGA 63.1 33.2 29.9 32.8 52.2 67.9
TARLAC 51.7 19.6 16.8 24.4 56.3 66.0
ZAMBALES 43.3 14.5 7.9 18.4 60.7 63.6
AURORA 70.4 52.3 45.2 67.3 79.9 78.5
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 78.7 25.2 9.2 22.2 55.7 58.5
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 77.0 39.7 19.4 27.0 48.4 65.8
CAVITE 71.9 26.7 8.8 16.0 7.5 60.6
LAGUNA 82.3 40.4 21.5 36.4 67.8 64.7
RIZAL 80.4 38.6 14.1 37.7 71.8 66.0
QUEZON 85.0 62.2 33.0 54.7 55.5 62.0 PROVINCE DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 83.9 60.5 28.1 43.8 48.2 56.0
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 66.0 40.5 14.9 25.0 36.0 56.6
ORIENTAL MINDORO 73.2 46.1 21.1 31.2 44.9 57.2
ROMBLON 83.7 52.8 20.1 36.9 45.9 51.3
PALAWAN 65.5 22.0 10.1 12.6 41.6 59.3
SPRATLY ISLANDS 58.6 18.2 9.2 14.1 40.6 57.7
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 81.6 54.6 21.0 60.4 60.1 51.7
CAMARINES NORTE 89.0 61.7 33.5 45.7 42.9 55.2
CAMARINES SUR 85.6 54.2 23.0 47.8 65.0 51.9
CATANDUANES 83.3 49.7 35.1 49.4 68.9 53.0
MASBATE 86.2 55.8 21.6 39.0 41.7 48.9
SORSOGON 84.9 57.1 27.9 49.0 65.1 50.6
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN 80.6 52.1 26.4 31.3 61.4 60.3
ANTIQUE 77.7 35.9 20.0 26.9 42.0 64.9
CAPIZ 84.4 55.3 29.3 31.8 65.4 63.4
GUIMARAS 84.5 27.1 16.0 27.2 31.6 74.8
ILOILO 83.7 40.7 22.5 29.7 46.8 68.1
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 84.0 32.4 20.7 31.9 43.9 68.1
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 80.9 33.0 28.6 41.5 41.6 66.9
BOHOL 87.5 48.8 33.2 52.2 51.2 51.9
CEBU 85.8 45.3 30.4 45.9 45.8 53.4
SIQUIJOR 80.7 40.0 32.9 50.9 42.3 64.0
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 91.3 57.0 24.1 47.1 56.6 52.0
EASTERN SAMAR 91.9 64.1 30.3 51.3 73.5 65.3
LEYTE 90.7 56.7 30.2 49.1 58.1 57.2
NORTHERN SAMAR 93.5 61.0 28.1 48.0 56.7 49.7
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 92.8 60.8 25.7 50.4 64.6 57.0
SOUTHERN LEYTE 88.4 54.4 35.9 46.4 62.9 55.9 FORECAST RAINFALL in Percent of Normal (December 2023 - May 2024) as of November 20, 2023 PROVINCE DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 82.5 37.1 30.8 36.6 59.4 70.7
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 84.6 40.7 34.1 41.0 63.6 73.6
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 85.7 38.7 34.0 41.8 60.1 73.3
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 88.0 57.3 42.8 65.8 60.8 85.4
CAMIGUIN 84.2 50.7 31.4 58.3 60.1 68.0
LANAO DEL NORTE 80.1 46.6 31.2 48.5 59.8 76.8
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 78.8 42.5 28.4 39.4 62.5 70.7
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 82.2 49.1 28.4 61.5 53.6 77.9
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
DAVAO DE ORO 88.8 71.9 44.9 69.3 87.0 90.5
DAVAO CITY 90.9 72.4 51.2 84.8 85.2 90.4
DAVAO DEL NORTE 90.4 70.9 53.2 77.0 77.7 91.9
DAVAO DEL SUR 90.7 76.9 38.5 78.7 86.4 82.1
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 90.3 78.4 30.4 69.1 79.8 76.6
DAVAO ORIENTAL 88.2 73.5 40.4 67.4 82.2 86.6
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 89.9 77.7 32.7 65.4 77.5 75.1
COTABATO 88.3 70.4 47.4 67.9 74.2 84.1
SARANGANI 90.3 78.6 29.1 65.8 80.0 73.9
SULTAN KUDARAT 88.3 73.0 40.5 61.0 72.2 78.0
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 87.9 71.7 41.5 72.2 67.7 77.8
AGUSAN DEL SUR 89.9 72.4 51.9 74.0 74.1 85.9
DINAGAT ISLANDS 87.5 66.4 44.2 58.3 69.8 67.7
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 86.7 71.7 48.7 67.4 71.6 72.7
SURIGAO DEL SUR 89.0 77.7 54.7 74.8 77.0 83.0
BARMM
BASILAN 91.0 33.2 35.4 44.0 65.7 76.8
MAGUINDANAO 86.5 70.7 47.1 55.5 72.2 80.2
LANAO DEL SUR 82.6 54.0 38.1 53.4 65.0 80.5
SULU 83.8 32.5 29.6 43.1 61.5 72.1
TAWI-TAWI 79.0 31.3 24.9 39.1 57.2 68.3
PROVINCE
CO RDILLERA ADMINIS TRATIV E REG IO N MINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEAN
ABRA 25.4 75.1 49.1 0.2 13.4 4.4 0.7 4.9 1.7 1.4 16.2 7.5 7.4 55.0 31.3 144.9 184.7 157.6
BENGUET 27.1 77.1 48.8 1.9 15.8 7.2 0.1 9.2 3.3 11.3 33.4 24.9 43.2 91.7 73.7 204.9 260.7 232.2
IFUGAO 68.3 145.5 104.0 9.6 29.7 18.8 3.8 12.8 7.0 20.6 35.1 26.3 47.3 74.3 58.3 164.8 224.0 192.2
KALINGA 63.6 117.3 89.2 5.5 17.7 10.6 2.1 5.2 3.4 9.1 18.1 13.6 31.3 55.8 47.9 134.7 174.7 153.3
APAYAO 57.9 132.5 95.2 9.4 54.3 28.8 3.6 20.8 11.1 6.1 20.3 12.2 23.2 52.8 38.2 129.9 148.4 140.5
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 56.5 129.1 86.4 4.2 23.2 11.1 2.1 5.7 3.6 14.8 25.7 19.4 44.2 74.3 56.6 152.6 210.8 179.2
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 19.4 114.7 52.0 0.8 47.0 15.6 0.7 20.0 5.7 0.2 20.2 6.1 1.5 34.1 13.3 145.5 158.1 152.0
ILOCOS SUR 17.0 61.0 36.8 0.2 6.3 2.7 0.1 2.8 1.4 0.1 28.6 13.3 5.6 91.4 42.9 148.4 235.6 182.3
LA UNION 22.4 35.4 28.5 0.6 4.7 2.1 0.5 1.6 0.7 9.8 29.8 21.5 56.2 92.2 80.7 200.9 243.9 223.5
PANGASINAN 18.0 69.2 28.9 0.3 17.2 1.9 0.2 12.9 2.2 1.7 24.2 8.9 16.1 67.2 51.4 145.0 215.8 173.1
REGION II
BATANES 144.3 165.6 153.8 103.0 110.7 108.2 36.3 43.6 41.2 44.8 47.7 46.2 37.0 40.0 37.8 180.3 188.5 185.5
CAGAYAN 91.9 230.3 139.7 13.1 112.3 49.4 4.0 52.7 18.7 10.9 51.1 22.3 23.3 54.4 35.9 126.1 173.3 134.4
ISABELA 112.2 360.1 197.7 14.8 124.6 58.2 4.3 51.9 21.1 14.2 103.6 46.0 30.6 102.6 55.9 133.3 192.4 160.2
NUEVA VIZCAYA 49.8 225.3 127.7 9.4 93.1 36.5 5.7 82.6 25.9 19.2 116.1 48.5 39.5 159.7 74.1 190.7 229.1 209.8
QUIRINO 149.2 360.3 235.6 35.4 120.4 80.6 15.4 83.4 50.3 38.2 119.6 85.7 52.2 160.5 97.9 172.9 217.1 200.1
REGION III
BATAAN 30.8 83.7 48.6 0.4 2.8 1.2 0.1 2.1 0.6 3.1 9.4 4.3 0.1 9.4 1.0 94.4 120.7 107.8
BULACAN 64.1 272.9 145.2 24.8 114.9 32.8 14.8 118.7 21.8 0.5 107.8 25.9 4.8 143.4 33.8 108.7 177.1 144.9
NUEVA ECIJA 29.6 236.1 102.3 3.6 104.7 31.7 14.3 101.9 27.1 10.0 103.9 35.2 3.1 176.9 55.9 129.5 203.9 163.0
PAMPANGA 29.6 109.2 59.7 0.1 21.3 5.5 0.5 13.0 3.6 2.9 21.8 12.9 0.4 35.0 11.5 111.5 142.3 129.3
TARLAC 19.2 62.1 29.5 0.2 8.3 1.0 0.3 5.7 1.3 0.5 17.9 7.9 8.9 54.3 34.8 129.0 166.9 138.5
ZAMBALES 14.8 40.3 23.0 0.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 3.8 1.3 1.7 12.8 5.8 4.0 61.7 31.0 112.0 159.6 132.2
AURORA 176.4 444.0 308.1 71.0 156.2 117.7 49.7 113.8 82.4 87.7 153.5 121.7 85.4 192.9 147.0 170.9 227.8 194.7
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 89.9 162.4 121.5 0.7 25.4 11.0 1.0 6.6 2.4 1.9 15.3 7.6 4.5 37.9 21.7 88.7 129.6 106.3
REGION IV-A
BATANGAS 96.3 336.4 193.1 6.9 76.8 30.1 2.1 31.3 11.9 4.0 38.5 15.9 8.0 59.3 31.2 93.8 112.8 102.2
CAVITE 84.1 148.6 112.2 1.6 14.9 6.4 0.9 4.3 2.0 1.9 9.0 4.1 0.1 18.8 5.8 86.4 97.6 91.8
LAGUNA 128.3 444.9 278.2 9.5 137.0 58.9 2.4 53.1 22.4 4.6 83.5 35.6 7.9 92.9 49.7 90.9 123.8 103.2
RIZAL 147.7 386.4 247.0 20.2 121.3 61.7 0.6 46.0 19.5 9.3 81.3 39.1 24.0 87.6 52.6 100.5 159.2 125.9
QUEZON 245.1 554.6 439.5 39.8 258.8 140.0 16.2 116.4 58.1 20.8 150.0 77.9 29.4 173.0 64.6 76.4 182.4 107.4
REGION IV-B
MARINDUQUE 303.8 400.6 350.6 82.6 117.0 99.7 28.8 41.3 35.2 39.0 53.0 46.1 40.3 50.5 42.7 85.4 93.6 89.5
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 79.1 199.9 138.2 7.9 48.6 26.2 0.3 18.0 9.5 2.5 24.8 14.0 5.2 53.8 27.0 80.4 112.9 97.6
ORIENTAL MINDORO 110.2 268.1 187.7 20.2 67.2 45.2 4.9 24.5 16.1 9.1 32.9 22.6 9.3 64.8 39.9 83.9 117.8 99.4
ROMBLON 186.4 285.1 243.9 56.9 79.3 67.2 16.7 26.2 18.9 26.7 38.8 32.3 28.9 41.6 34.0 79.9 92.6 83.8
PALAWAN 65.7 134.9 114.8 2.0 23.3 9.2 0.7 13.7 5.4 0.1 18.0 8.1 2.3 44.2 27.9 75.4 104.3 88.5
SPRATLY ISLANDS 77.7 82.8 78.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 3.3 3.4 3.4 5.3 6.0 5.9 20.7 20.8 20.8 94.9 97.7 97.1
REGION V
ALBAY 301.7 453.3 354.7 74.9 192.3 117.6 12.8 74.0 36.4 40.5 125.7 74.8 14.8 153.8 50.8 82.4 99.2 89.3
CAMARINES NORTE 435.2 564.5 533.2 120.9 188.6 168.7 47.5 79.7 71.8 54.1 87.1 76.4 32.6 58.2 46.5 82.4 94.9 86.9
CAMARINES SUR 284.1 525.4 382.7 66.9 156.9 104.9 9.7 68.0 35.6 27.9 79.7 51.8 24.8 86.8 47.3 81.2 88.6 84.1
CATANDUANES 409.5 447.3 432.3 129.9 159.8 143.2 57.1 67.9 62.9 79.0 93.6 85.8 70.7 110.2 90.8 87.8 89.8 89.1
MASBATE 247.2 381.3 312.6 69.2 164.3 115.5 15.0 44.5 28.3 22.2 76.1 49.2 8.7 65.9 34.7 67.7 87.3 74.9
SORSOGON 332.7 460.9 417.5 108.0 213.2 181.4 28.8 75.0 62.6 64.9 117.5 102.6 30.6 154.3 105.8 78.2 94.0 85.7
DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY Forecast Rainfall in millimeters (mm) – (Dec 2023 – May 2024)
CO RDILLERA ADMINIS TRATIV E REG IO N MINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEAN
ABRA 25.4 75.1 49.1 0.2 13.4 4.4 0.7 4.9 1.7 1.4 16.2 7.5 7.4 55.0 31.3 144.9 184.7 157.6
BENGUET 27.1 77.1 48.8 1.9 15.8 7.2 0.1 9.2 3.3 11.3 33.4 24.9 43.2 91.7 73.7 204.9 260.7 232.2
IFUGAO 68.3 145.5 104.0 9.6 29.7 18.8 3.8 12.8 7.0 20.6 35.1 26.3 47.3 74.3 58.3 164.8 224.0 192.2
KALINGA 63.6 117.3 89.2 5.5 17.7 10.6 2.1 5.2 3.4 9.1 18.1 13.6 31.3 55.8 47.9 134.7 174.7 153.3
APAYAO 57.9 132.5 95.2 9.4 54.3 28.8 3.6 20.8 11.1 6.1 20.3 12.2 23.2 52.8 38.2 129.9 148.4 140.5
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 56.5 129.1 86.4 4.2 23.2 11.1 2.1 5.7 3.6 14.8 25.7 19.4 44.2 74.3 56.6 152.6 210.8 179.2
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 19.4 114.7 52.0 0.8 47.0 15.6 0.7 20.0 5.7 0.2 20.2 6.1 1.5 34.1 13.3 145.5 158.1 152.0
ILOCOS SUR 17.0 61.0 36.8 0.2 6.3 2.7 0.1 2.8 1.4 0.1 28.6 13.3 5.6 91.4 42.9 148.4 235.6 182.3
LA UNION 22.4 35.4 28.5 0.6 4.7 2.1 0.5 1.6 0.7 9.8 29.8 21.5 56.2 92.2 80.7 200.9 243.9 223.5
PANGASINAN 18.0 69.2 28.9 0.3 17.2 1.9 0.2 12.9 2.2 1.7 24.2 8.9 16.1 67.2 51.4 145.0 215.8 173.1
REGION II
BATANES 144.3 165.6 153.8 103.0 110.7 108.2 36.3 43.6 41.2 44.8 47.7 46.2 37.0 40.0 37.8 180.3 188.5 185.5
CAGAYAN 91.9 230.3 139.7 13.1 112.3 49.4 4.0 52.7 18.7 10.9 51.1 22.3 23.3 54.4 35.9 126.1 173.3 134.4
ISABELA 112.2 360.1 197.7 14.8 124.6 58.2 4.3 51.9 21.1 14.2 103.6 46.0 30.6 102.6 55.9 133.3 192.4 160.2
NUEVA VIZCAYA 49.8 225.3 127.7 9.4 93.1 36.5 5.7 82.6 25.9 19.2 116.1 48.5 39.5 159.7 74.1 190.7 229.1 209.8
QUIRINO 149.2 360.3 235.6 35.4 120.4 80.6 15.4 83.4 50.3 38.2 119.6 85.7 52.2 160.5 97.9 172.9 217.1 200.1
REGION III
BATAAN 30.8 83.7 48.6 0.4 2.8 1.2 0.1 2.1 0.6 3.1 9.4 4.3 0.1 9.4 1.0 94.4 120.7 107.8
BULACAN 64.1 272.9 145.2 24.8 114.9 32.8 14.8 118.7 21.8 0.5 107.8 25.9 4.8 143.4 33.8 108.7 177.1 144.9
NUEVA ECIJA 29.6 236.1 102.3 3.6 104.7 31.7 14.3 101.9 27.1 10.0 103.9 35.2 3.1 176.9 55.9 129.5 203.9 163.0
PAMPANGA 29.6 109.2 59.7 0.1 21.3 5.5 0.5 13.0 3.6 2.9 21.8 12.9 0.4 35.0 11.5 111.5 142.3 129.3
TARLAC 19.2 62.1 29.5 0.2 8.3 1.0 0.3 5.7 1.3 0.5 17.9 7.9 8.9 54.3 34.8 129.0 166.9 138.5
ZAMBALES 14.8 40.3 23.0 0.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 3.8 1.3 1.7 12.8 5.8 4.0 61.7 31.0 112.0 159.6 132.2
AURORA 176.4 444.0 308.1 71.0 156.2 117.7 49.7 113.8 82.4 87.7 153.5 121.7 85.4 192.9 147.0 170.9 227.8 194.7
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 89.9 162.4 121.5 0.7 25.4 11.0 1.0 6.6 2.4 1.9 15.3 7.6 4.5 37.9 21.7 88.7 129.6 106.3
REGION IV-A
BATANGAS 96.3 336.4 193.1 6.9 76.8 30.1 2.1 31.3 11.9 4.0 38.5 15.9 8.0 59.3 31.2 93.8 112.8 102.2
CAVITE 84.1 148.6 112.2 1.6 14.9 6.4 0.9 4.3 2.0 1.9 9.0 4.1 0.1 18.8 5.8 86.4 97.6 91.8
LAGUNA 128.3 444.9 278.2 9.5 137.0 58.9 2.4 53.1 22.4 4.6 83.5 35.6 7.9 92.9 49.7 90.9 123.8 103.2
RIZAL 147.7 386.4 247.0 20.2 121.3 61.7 0.6 46.0 19.5 9.3 81.3 39.1 24.0 87.6 52.6 100.5 159.2 125.9
QUEZON 245.1 554.6 439.5 39.8 258.8 140.0 16.2 116.4 58.1 20.8 150.0 77.9 29.4 173.0 64.6 76.4 182.4 107.4
REGION IV-B
MARINDUQUE 303.8 400.6 350.6 82.6 117.0 99.7 28.8 41.3 35.2 39.0 53.0 46.1 40.3 50.5 42.7 85.4 93.6 89.5
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 79.1 199.9 138.2 7.9 48.6 26.2 0.3 18.0 9.5 2.5 24.8 14.0 5.2 53.8 27.0 80.4 112.9 97.6
ORIENTAL MINDORO 110.2 268.1 187.7 20.2 67.2 45.2 4.9 24.5 16.1 9.1 32.9 22.6 9.3 64.8 39.9 83.9 117.8 99.4
ROMBLON 186.4 285.1 243.9 56.9 79.3 67.2 16.7 26.2 18.9 26.7 38.8 32.3 28.9 41.6 34.0 79.9 92.6 83.8
PALAWAN 65.7 134.9 114.8 2.0 23.3 9.2 0.7 13.7 5.4 0.1 18.0 8.1 2.3 44.2 27.9 75.4 104.3 88.5
SPRATLY ISLANDS 77.7 82.8 78.6 7.8 8.0 8.0 3.3 3.4 3.4 5.3 6.0 5.9 20.7 20.8 20.8 94.9 97.7 97.1
REGION V
ALBAY 301.7 453.3 354.7 74.9 192.3 117.6 12.8 74.0 36.4 40.5 125.7 74.8 14.8 153.8 50.8 82.4 99.2 89.3
CAMARINES NORTE 435.2 564.5 533.2 120.9 188.6 168.7 47.5 79.7 71.8 54.1 87.1 76.4 32.6 58.2 46.5 82.4 94.9 86.9
CAMARINES SUR 284.1 525.4 382.7 66.9 156.9 104.9 9.7 68.0 35.6 27.9 79.7 51.8 24.8 86.8 47.3 81.2 88.6 84.1
CATANDUANES 409.5 447.3 432.3 129.9 159.8 143.2 57.1 67.9 62.9 79.0 93.6 85.8 70.7 110.2 90.8 87.8 89.8 89.1
MASBATE 247.2 381.3 312.6 69.2 164.3 115.5 15.0 44.5 28.3 22.2 76.1 49.2 8.7 65.9 34.7 67.7 87.3 74.9
SORSOGON 332.7 460.9 417.5 108.0 213.2 181.4 28.8 75.0 62.6 64.9 117.5 102.6 30.6 154.3 105.8 78.2 94.0 85.7
DECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY Forecast Rainfall in millimeters (mm) – (Dec 2023 – May 2024)
PROVINCE
REGION VI MINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEAN
AKLAN 174.0 258.3 218.2 58.1 120.3 88.5 17.9 43.5 30.0 26.8 55.1 39.8 28.9 77.7 54.1 93.3 115.0 105.9
ANTIQUE 115.5 212.4 162.4 20.1 84.6 53.5 7.6 30.0 19.4 11.8 39.7 27.7 19.5 56.9 31.7 88.3 119.9 111.7
CAPIZ 182.6 273.4 234.7 62.2 137.2 95.7 12.1 51.8 32.5 13.6 65.2 41.7 7.0 84.9 57.4 89.8 120.0 111.1
GUIMARAS 134.6 148.6 137.7 14.2 29.6 18.1 6.2 10.2 7.7 14.6 18.6 16.1 17.3 28.6 21.2 127.1 136.4 130.5
ILOILO 124.5 263.7 183.5 18.3 104.1 58.6 5.9 37.8 20.3 14.3 48.9 29.3 16.9 77.7 37.1 86.4 127.9 117.4
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 134.4 215.2 156.0 15.9 78.4 33.2 8.8 28.0 16.7 16.9 38.0 24.9 29.9 42.9 37.9 92.6 148.6 117.6
REGION VII
NEGROS ORIENTAL 127.7 160.6 140.3 23.5 44.9 31.8 13.4 30.5 22.9 21.4 37.4 31.0 16.2 43.5 31.6 71.9 132.1 96.3
BOHOL 149.9 261.0 196.1 52.4 139.7 91.2 28.7 67.3 43.6 38.3 69.1 54.3 26.0 58.3 43.6 50.8 65.2 55.4
CEBU 131.2 338.0 191.3 35.3 154.1 68.3 22.0 65.9 31.5 29.4 83.2 41.1 18.0 67.2 37.4 49.6 91.7 74.1
SIQUIJOR 137.8 154.9 148.0 44.8 55.4 50.4 29.2 31.4 30.3 38.6 45.7 42.3 23.1 41.2 32.3 70.1 78.4 73.9
REGION VIII
BILIRAN 366.6 394.4 382.4 151.9 178.2 169.6 45.3 51.8 48.2 78.6 91.7 87.0 63.7 72.7 65.1 75.4 87.3 81.1
EASTERN SAMAR 433.7 501.6 474.0 262.2 341.3 296.6 77.4 133.7 101.5 108.6 166.0 135.8 75.3 154.2 113.4 96.1 137.4 114.3
LEYTE 277.0 428.2 364.0 133.5 248.2 186.7 45.3 100.9 72.5 53.1 112.3 92.7 45.0 86.4 66.9 53.5 104.7 82.3
NORTHERN SAMAR 399.9 593.5 522.8 181.4 310.6 278.7 50.9 91.9 81.0 83.7 146.4 128.9 51.4 80.4 77.8 76.0 101.9 84.6
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 398.6 529.5 460.5 177.9 298.6 245.1 39.8 107.3 72.9 84.5 145.9 119.3 64.3 138.2 88.0 75.1 123.8 98.0
SOUTHERN LEYTE 274.0 384.1 339.7 139.4 336.4 222.9 61.8 182.0 103.7 50.1 174.2 100.2 45.0 136.6 64.9 52.8 80.8 67.9
REGION IX
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 95.7 179.4 140.7 24.4 63.8 45.5 22.2 34.4 30.4 26.5 39.4 32.9 42.2 70.8 60.0 90.7 119.0 105.9
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 85.9 160.0 128.7 20.9 55.6 43.7 20.3 36.3 31.1 27.6 44.6 36.9 52.2 70.7 64.0 85.5 129.7 113.0
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 107.3 139.3 122.8 30.7 48.6 41.0 24.8 33.8 29.2 33.3 41.5 35.9 58.3 70.1 61.3 98.5 119.2 109.7
REGION X
BUKIDNON 127.4 213.5 162.8 47.3 193.8 105.1 17.3 105.7 56.9 36.9 123.7 76.9 22.0 114.6 77.6 122.9 200.7 173.8
CAMIGUIN 207.9 228.1 216.8 121.3 147.9 134.6 57.1 68.9 62.9 73.7 83.6 78.6 80.2 86.2 85.1 81.9 92.6 86.9
LANAO DEL NORTE 123.6 146.7 133.6 43.1 54.5 50.6 17.2 37.8 30.5 35.5 49.0 41.5 26.4 91.6 63.6 120.5 148.4 133.5
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 138.9 169.5 154.6 52.0 59.5 55.3 29.8 33.5 31.9 32.2 40.2 35.9 63.7 73.2 66.7 98.2 126.2 113.5
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 118.1 252.1 175.8 44.1 225.0 114.1 12.7 92.1 45.6 32.2 108.0 64.1 21.7 94.3 62.1 97.6 142.9 118.2
REGION XI
DAVAO DE ORO 151.9 329.1 229.0 132.9 434.0 263.5 35.8 259.2 134.9 69.8 234.5 142.5 86.5 180.9 116.5 179.5 205.5 191.5
DAVAO CITY 142.4 174.1 152.8 101.2 155.9 121.7 49.8 96.7 67.9 100.5 128.6 116.3 86.3 195.3 144.2 194.8 220.0 207.2
DAVAO DEL NORTE 149.7 256.5 188.1 122.7 304.9 184.2 47.9 174.8 105.6 92.3 173.5 131.5 79.9 184.6 99.4 188.0 210.5 198.7
DAVAO DEL SUR 121.4 146.2 134.8 88.3 116.1 98.6 28.6 50.1 40.4 62.6 111.6 85.5 80.1 195.3 138.9 129.1 209.3 168.3
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 118.6 165.9 139.1 88.2 127.4 112.6 25.5 61.5 40.0 57.9 83.4 69.9 68.4 137.1 94.9 102.7 162.4 122.9
DAVAO ORIENTAL 166.8 349.1 232.4 154.7 478.5 275.2 53.3 283.4 131.3 88.0 250.7 136.9 110.6 197.2 123.3 143.9 206.8 180.0
REGION XII
SOUTH COTABATO 95.4 128.4 114.6 69.5 91.2 78.7 12.8 45.1 30.7 37.7 70.6 56.1 46.9 100.4 76.9 87.1 152.5 119.1
COTABATO 122.0 163.1 136.5 59.8 122.6 82.6 39.4 76.8 51.3 58.3 109.4 80.9 93.7 176.9 112.5 160.7 204.2 184.8
SARANGANI 103.7 152.8 124.5 72.3 114.5 94.0 16.4 51.0 32.4 42.3 70.9 57.2 48.0 101.7 74.5 91.6 134.0 106.4
SULTAN KUDARAT 116.6 132.9 125.7 61.7 91.1 71.8 32.2 49.0 43.4 60.4 82.4 65.0 87.9 130.0 97.6 123.1 167.4 144.4
REGION XIII
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 218.7 361.4 282.0 191.1 398.7 294.0 77.5 191.5 122.8 95.4 187.8 134.0 78.6 127.1 90.3 96.3 148.0 117.0
AGUSAN DEL SUR 200.7 446.2 292.8 174.7 600.6 346.1 78.7 389.7 189.1 95.6 337.7 181.9 83.5 309.7 135.0 116.5 221.6 176.9
DINAGAT ISLANDS 402.2 428.4 415.2 299.1 431.4 372.7 129.9 228.4 182.9 135.0 218.8 179.0 81.4 155.2 124.8 83.5 98.9 92.2
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 345.8 433.6 394.2 350.0 457.8 416.2 172.9 249.6 209.4 173.7 239.7 201.9 101.6 165.2 131.6 86.4 128.1 104.1
SURIGAO DEL SUR 328.8 467.1 374.4 381.7 631.8 481.6 173.2 417.7 260.3 172.2 360.3 235.9 92.0 314.4 166.6 112.6 227.4 167.5
BARMM
BASILAN 91.0 105.7 96.5 22.1 30.3 26.4 19.6 24.0 22.5 28.9 36.6 33.3 47.0 65.1 59.5 88.7 102.3 96.1
MAGUINDANAO 115.8 133.1 124.6 58.4 84.9 66.9 38.3 50.3 47.2 51.0 79.0 62.5 77.0 104.6 99.8 146.2 183.4 168.4
LANAO DEL SUR 119.6 143.6 132.4 43.2 78.6 55.1 24.1 51.1 37.6 40.0 73.9 51.9 46.6 100.4 83.8 130.5 184.4 157.3
SULU 99.0 116.4 110.1 22.0 34.6 29.2 15.0 26.4 22.7 24.7 42.0 36.4 40.4 66.6 59.8 88.4 107.8 98.1
TAWI-TAWI 102.5 122.4 107.9 17.6 36.6 30.8 12.9 26.9 20.2 18.6 42.7 33.7 32.3 63.3 56.6 86.7 103.0 100.6
MAYDECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL Forecast Rainfall in millimeters (mm) – (Dec 2023 – May 2024)
REGION VI MINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEANMINMAXMEAN
AKLAN 174.0 258.3 218.2 58.1 120.3 88.5 17.9 43.5 30.0 26.8 55.1 39.8 28.9 77.7 54.1 93.3 115.0 105.9
ANTIQUE 115.5 212.4 162.4 20.1 84.6 53.5 7.6 30.0 19.4 11.8 39.7 27.7 19.5 56.9 31.7 88.3 119.9 111.7
CAPIZ 182.6 273.4 234.7 62.2 137.2 95.7 12.1 51.8 32.5 13.6 65.2 41.7 7.0 84.9 57.4 89.8 120.0 111.1
GUIMARAS 134.6 148.6 137.7 14.2 29.6 18.1 6.2 10.2 7.7 14.6 18.6 16.1 17.3 28.6 21.2 127.1 136.4 130.5
ILOILO 124.5 263.7 183.5 18.3 104.1 58.6 5.9 37.8 20.3 14.3 48.9 29.3 16.9 77.7 37.1 86.4 127.9 117.4
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 134.4 215.2 156.0 15.9 78.4 33.2 8.8 28.0 16.7 16.9 38.0 24.9 29.9 42.9 37.9 92.6 148.6 117.6
REGION VII
NEGROS ORIENTAL 127.7 160.6 140.3 23.5 44.9 31.8 13.4 30.5 22.9 21.4 37.4 31.0 16.2 43.5 31.6 71.9 132.1 96.3
BOHOL 149.9 261.0 196.1 52.4 139.7 91.2 28.7 67.3 43.6 38.3 69.1 54.3 26.0 58.3 43.6 50.8 65.2 55.4
CEBU 131.2 338.0 191.3 35.3 154.1 68.3 22.0 65.9 31.5 29.4 83.2 41.1 18.0 67.2 37.4 49.6 91.7 74.1
SIQUIJOR 137.8 154.9 148.0 44.8 55.4 50.4 29.2 31.4 30.3 38.6 45.7 42.3 23.1 41.2 32.3 70.1 78.4 73.9
REGION VIII
BILIRAN 366.6 394.4 382.4 151.9 178.2 169.6 45.3 51.8 48.2 78.6 91.7 87.0 63.7 72.7 65.1 75.4 87.3 81.1
EASTERN SAMAR 433.7 501.6 474.0 262.2 341.3 296.6 77.4 133.7 101.5 108.6 166.0 135.8 75.3 154.2 113.4 96.1 137.4 114.3
LEYTE 277.0 428.2 364.0 133.5 248.2 186.7 45.3 100.9 72.5 53.1 112.3 92.7 45.0 86.4 66.9 53.5 104.7 82.3
NORTHERN SAMAR 399.9 593.5 522.8 181.4 310.6 278.7 50.9 91.9 81.0 83.7 146.4 128.9 51.4 80.4 77.8 76.0 101.9 84.6
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 398.6 529.5 460.5 177.9 298.6 245.1 39.8 107.3 72.9 84.5 145.9 119.3 64.3 138.2 88.0 75.1 123.8 98.0
SOUTHERN LEYTE 274.0 384.1 339.7 139.4 336.4 222.9 61.8 182.0 103.7 50.1 174.2 100.2 45.0 136.6 64.9 52.8 80.8 67.9
REGION IX
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 95.7 179.4 140.7 24.4 63.8 45.5 22.2 34.4 30.4 26.5 39.4 32.9 42.2 70.8 60.0 90.7 119.0 105.9
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 85.9 160.0 128.7 20.9 55.6 43.7 20.3 36.3 31.1 27.6 44.6 36.9 52.2 70.7 64.0 85.5 129.7 113.0
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 107.3 139.3 122.8 30.7 48.6 41.0 24.8 33.8 29.2 33.3 41.5 35.9 58.3 70.1 61.3 98.5 119.2 109.7
REGION X
BUKIDNON 127.4 213.5 162.8 47.3 193.8 105.1 17.3 105.7 56.9 36.9 123.7 76.9 22.0 114.6 77.6 122.9 200.7 173.8
CAMIGUIN 207.9 228.1 216.8 121.3 147.9 134.6 57.1 68.9 62.9 73.7 83.6 78.6 80.2 86.2 85.1 81.9 92.6 86.9
LANAO DEL NORTE 123.6 146.7 133.6 43.1 54.5 50.6 17.2 37.8 30.5 35.5 49.0 41.5 26.4 91.6 63.6 120.5 148.4 133.5
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 138.9 169.5 154.6 52.0 59.5 55.3 29.8 33.5 31.9 32.2 40.2 35.9 63.7 73.2 66.7 98.2 126.2 113.5
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 118.1 252.1 175.8 44.1 225.0 114.1 12.7 92.1 45.6 32.2 108.0 64.1 21.7 94.3 62.1 97.6 142.9 118.2
REGION XI
DAVAO DE ORO 151.9 329.1 229.0 132.9 434.0 263.5 35.8 259.2 134.9 69.8 234.5 142.5 86.5 180.9 116.5 179.5 205.5 191.5
DAVAO CITY 142.4 174.1 152.8 101.2 155.9 121.7 49.8 96.7 67.9 100.5 128.6 116.3 86.3 195.3 144.2 194.8 220.0 207.2
DAVAO DEL NORTE 149.7 256.5 188.1 122.7 304.9 184.2 47.9 174.8 105.6 92.3 173.5 131.5 79.9 184.6 99.4 188.0 210.5 198.7
DAVAO DEL SUR 121.4 146.2 134.8 88.3 116.1 98.6 28.6 50.1 40.4 62.6 111.6 85.5 80.1 195.3 138.9 129.1 209.3 168.3
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 118.6 165.9 139.1 88.2 127.4 112.6 25.5 61.5 40.0 57.9 83.4 69.9 68.4 137.1 94.9 102.7 162.4 122.9
DAVAO ORIENTAL 166.8 349.1 232.4 154.7 478.5 275.2 53.3 283.4 131.3 88.0 250.7 136.9 110.6 197.2 123.3 143.9 206.8 180.0
REGION XII
SOUTH COTABATO 95.4 128.4 114.6 69.5 91.2 78.7 12.8 45.1 30.7 37.7 70.6 56.1 46.9 100.4 76.9 87.1 152.5 119.1
COTABATO 122.0 163.1 136.5 59.8 122.6 82.6 39.4 76.8 51.3 58.3 109.4 80.9 93.7 176.9 112.5 160.7 204.2 184.8
SARANGANI 103.7 152.8 124.5 72.3 114.5 94.0 16.4 51.0 32.4 42.3 70.9 57.2 48.0 101.7 74.5 91.6 134.0 106.4
SULTAN KUDARAT 116.6 132.9 125.7 61.7 91.1 71.8 32.2 49.0 43.4 60.4 82.4 65.0 87.9 130.0 97.6 123.1 167.4 144.4
REGION XIII
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 218.7 361.4 282.0 191.1 398.7 294.0 77.5 191.5 122.8 95.4 187.8 134.0 78.6 127.1 90.3 96.3 148.0 117.0
AGUSAN DEL SUR 200.7 446.2 292.8 174.7 600.6 346.1 78.7 389.7 189.1 95.6 337.7 181.9 83.5 309.7 135.0 116.5 221.6 176.9
DINAGAT ISLANDS 402.2 428.4 415.2 299.1 431.4 372.7 129.9 228.4 182.9 135.0 218.8 179.0 81.4 155.2 124.8 83.5 98.9 92.2
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 345.8 433.6 394.2 350.0 457.8 416.2 172.9 249.6 209.4 173.7 239.7 201.9 101.6 165.2 131.6 86.4 128.1 104.1
SURIGAO DEL SUR 328.8 467.1 374.4 381.7 631.8 481.6 173.2 417.7 260.3 172.2 360.3 235.9 92.0 314.4 166.6 112.6 227.4 167.5
BARMM
BASILAN 91.0 105.7 96.5 22.1 30.3 26.4 19.6 24.0 22.5 28.9 36.6 33.3 47.0 65.1 59.5 88.7 102.3 96.1
MAGUINDANAO 115.8 133.1 124.6 58.4 84.9 66.9 38.3 50.3 47.2 51.0 79.0 62.5 77.0 104.6 99.8 146.2 183.4 168.4
LANAO DEL SUR 119.6 143.6 132.4 43.2 78.6 55.1 24.1 51.1 37.6 40.0 73.9 51.9 46.6 100.4 83.8 130.5 184.4 157.3
SULU 99.0 116.4 110.1 22.0 34.6 29.2 15.0 26.4 22.7 24.7 42.0 36.4 40.4 66.6 59.8 88.4 107.8 98.1
TAWI-TAWI 102.5 122.4 107.9 17.6 36.6 30.8 12.9 26.9 20.2 18.6 42.7 33.7 32.3 63.3 56.6 86.7 103.0 100.6
MAYDECEMBER JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL Forecast Rainfall in millimeters (mm) – (Dec 2023 – May 2024)
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL for selected Dams and Lakes
in (mm) and (%N) FOR DECEMBER 2023-MAY 2024Angat WSLa Mesa WSLake BuhiLake LanaoMagat WSMalinao WS
Pantabangan
WS
San Roque
Cascade WS
MIN 157.7 131.8 284.1 118.1 68.5 194.2 81.1 32.4
MAX 261.8 155.7 396.2 149.3 169.5 216.5 184.6 77.1
MEAN 218.0 142.7 321.0 134.4 106.1 206.0 127.0 54.2
%NORMAL 75.9 79.2 83.2 81.2 58.5 87.2 57.1 54.4
MIN 21.5 13.1 66.9 43.1 10.1 90.1 25.0 4.2
MAX 115.5 22.6 133.4 75.8 49.6 109.6 75.1 15.8
MEAN 76.5 17.6 84.1 53.7 23.5 100.5 45.4 9.4
%NORMAL 58.3 27.8 53.4 48.1 32.3 49.1 25.7 20.9
MIN 24.1 0.1 9.7 12.7 4.0 42.9 19.9 0.9
MAX 118.7 1.9 44.9 43.4 33.5 52.3 69.4 9.3
MEAN 57.3 0.7 19.1 30.9 13.1 48.0 39.6 4.8
%NORMAL 51.1 8.1 17.1 32.1 12.9 33.3 22.1 4.9
MIN 26.3 6.4 27.9 32.2 21.1 51.2 33.5 13.1
MAX 108.9 10.6 91.4 61.6 58.8 60.0 92.5 30.7
MEAN 62.3 8.6 44.4 47.9 34.2 55.7 57.8 24.6
%NORMAL 71.6 22.0 54.5 56.0 41.7 51.0 44.2 35.7
MIN 25.8 21.8 10.0 21.7 43.1 42.4 45.6 40.2
MAX 140.7 27.3 70.7 97.3 80.4 52.7 132.8 82.9
MEAN 67.2 24.4 26.6 63.7 63.0 49.4 81.2 65.3
%NORMAL 73.6 67.8 66.9 54.7 65.5 53.1 62.6 65.9
MIN 149.7 121.9 81.3 114.1 177.4 52.7 178.9 206.7
MAX 177.7 133.2 93.6 173.4 229.2 58.6 204.9 257.0
MEAN 167.2 126.5 84.5 148.4 205.8 55.1 194.6 233.3
%NORMAL 77.3 63.5 50.9 81.1 78.0 51.7 75.6 77.7
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (DEC 2023 - MAY 2024)
MAY
APRIL
NAME
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH Probabilistic RAINFALL Forecast (%)
Forecast Issuance date: 20 NOVEMBER 2023
Forecast Months Below NormalNear NormalAbove Normal
DECEMBER 37 35 28
JANUARY 50 32 18
FEBRUARY 61 26 13
MARCH 50 36 14
APRIL 38 34 28
MAY 49 28 23
Probabilistic Forecast for ANGAT
% PROBABILITY OF HAVING:
in (mm) and (%N) FOR DECEMBER 2023-MAY 2024Angat WSLa Mesa WSLake BuhiLake LanaoMagat WSMalinao WS
Pantabangan
WS
San Roque
Cascade WS
MIN 157.7 131.8 284.1 118.1 68.5 194.2 81.1 32.4
MAX 261.8 155.7 396.2 149.3 169.5 216.5 184.6 77.1
MEAN 218.0 142.7 321.0 134.4 106.1 206.0 127.0 54.2
%NORMAL 75.9 79.2 83.2 81.2 58.5 87.2 57.1 54.4
MIN 21.5 13.1 66.9 43.1 10.1 90.1 25.0 4.2
MAX 115.5 22.6 133.4 75.8 49.6 109.6 75.1 15.8
MEAN 76.5 17.6 84.1 53.7 23.5 100.5 45.4 9.4
%NORMAL 58.3 27.8 53.4 48.1 32.3 49.1 25.7 20.9
MIN 24.1 0.1 9.7 12.7 4.0 42.9 19.9 0.9
MAX 118.7 1.9 44.9 43.4 33.5 52.3 69.4 9.3
MEAN 57.3 0.7 19.1 30.9 13.1 48.0 39.6 4.8
%NORMAL 51.1 8.1 17.1 32.1 12.9 33.3 22.1 4.9
MIN 26.3 6.4 27.9 32.2 21.1 51.2 33.5 13.1
MAX 108.9 10.6 91.4 61.6 58.8 60.0 92.5 30.7
MEAN 62.3 8.6 44.4 47.9 34.2 55.7 57.8 24.6
%NORMAL 71.6 22.0 54.5 56.0 41.7 51.0 44.2 35.7
MIN 25.8 21.8 10.0 21.7 43.1 42.4 45.6 40.2
MAX 140.7 27.3 70.7 97.3 80.4 52.7 132.8 82.9
MEAN 67.2 24.4 26.6 63.7 63.0 49.4 81.2 65.3
%NORMAL 73.6 67.8 66.9 54.7 65.5 53.1 62.6 65.9
MIN 149.7 121.9 81.3 114.1 177.4 52.7 178.9 206.7
MAX 177.7 133.2 93.6 173.4 229.2 58.6 204.9 257.0
MEAN 167.2 126.5 84.5 148.4 205.8 55.1 194.6 233.3
%NORMAL 77.3 63.5 50.9 81.1 78.0 51.7 75.6 77.7
FORECAST WATERSHED RAINFALL (DEC 2023 - MAY 2024)
MAY
APRIL
NAME
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
MARCH Probabilistic RAINFALL Forecast (%)
Forecast Issuance date: 20 NOVEMBER 2023
Forecast Months Below NormalNear NormalAbove Normal
DECEMBER 37 35 28
JANUARY 50 32 18
FEBRUARY 61 26 13
MARCH 50 36 14
APRIL 38 34 28
MAY 49 28 23
Probabilistic Forecast for ANGAT
% PROBABILITY OF HAVING:
FORECAST RAINFALL OF RAIN STATIONS OVER SELECTED DAM AREAS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR DECEMBER 2023 –MAY 2024MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 54.6 54.9 8.6 21.3 4.2 4.4 26.8 38.1 72.0 69.3 242.9 78.4
ANGATDAM 158.3 76.6 20.9 30.9 1.8 9.0 5.6 17.4 25.6 66.3 149.1 71.2
APUNAN 63.6 55.6 11.5 24.1 5.9 6.4 29.5 40.2 75.5 72.2 231.4 79.0
BADAYAN 64.1 55.2 9.5 25.6 4.5 6.8 27.3 38.3 78.8 75.7 219.2 79.1
BINGADAM 50.5 54.3 7.7 19.7 3.7 3.9 22.6 34.5 64.8 64.0 240.9 77.8
BOBOK 64.8 55.5 11.5 22.7 6.4 6.0 28.2 38.0 68.2 65.9 235.7 78.0
BUNGA 104.6 55.8 29.7 21.5 23.1 13.1 39.5 37.3 57.1 57.3 197.3 74.6
BUYOC 107.2 59.2 22.1 37.5 9.8 13.7 30.3 42.6 58.7 65.3 199.0 78.4
DANTOR 96.9 58.1 16.0 35.3 5.6 11.8 23.4 38.9 58.3 63.8 187.5 78.5
DUMAYUP 133.8 61.6 32.4 39.1 17.0 16.9 40.1 46.2 61.4 70.9 201.4 77.9
HALONG 85.7 57.0 14.2 31.8 5.9 10.2 25.4 38.4 63.6 65.4 199.2 78.7
IPODAM 127.0 76.8 9.7 30.0 7.0 10.0 1.2 19.7 13.1 71.4 136.7 67.2
MAGATDAM 134.2 62.7 26.6 45.4 7.9 16.3 27.0 45.4 49.0 70.2 181.0 78.6
MAPUTI 230.0 74.9 103.5 68.5 118.3 96.2 103.6 98.4 83.5 82.1 174.9 80.7
MARIKIT 176.1 59.6 69.9 31.7 63.4 34.5 85.9 54.3 120.8 70.8 198.5 77.3
MATULID 211.6 73.6 58.8 52.7 9.6 14.0 30.7 59.0 41.1 58.0 165.2 76.5
NORZAGARAY 125.1 76.9 10.0 32.6 10.0 12.8 1.6 22.5 12.5 75.4 139.2 68.2
PADALIS 142.6 57.9 49.6 26.6 43.7 24.0 63.3 46.0 89.0 65.2 194.9 75.9
PANTABANGAN DAM 103.0 55.3 37.3 20.4 33.0 17.9 46.6 39.3 62.3 54.1 180.9 73.7
SANROQUEDAM 40.2 51.0 6.3 14.8 3.3 2.7 13.3 25.3 40.7 56.6 206.6 73.3
STODOMINGO 113.4 58.8 27.7 31.1 17.5 13.6 40.2 43.1 63.9 64.4 211.8 77.7
TALAGUIO 181.0 82.6 44.4 59.7 14.9 35.4 26.3 58.9 48.8 84.1 162.7 75.0
UMIRAY 289.1 76.2 107.1 60.4 58.5 40.1 79.4 74.4 68.1 52.1 168.3 77.4
FEBRUARY MARCH
SITES
APRIL MAYDECEMBER JANUARY
in (mm) and (%N) FOR DECEMBER 2023 –MAY 2024MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL MM %NORMAL
AMBUKLAODAM 54.6 54.9 8.6 21.3 4.2 4.4 26.8 38.1 72.0 69.3 242.9 78.4
ANGATDAM 158.3 76.6 20.9 30.9 1.8 9.0 5.6 17.4 25.6 66.3 149.1 71.2
APUNAN 63.6 55.6 11.5 24.1 5.9 6.4 29.5 40.2 75.5 72.2 231.4 79.0
BADAYAN 64.1 55.2 9.5 25.6 4.5 6.8 27.3 38.3 78.8 75.7 219.2 79.1
BINGADAM 50.5 54.3 7.7 19.7 3.7 3.9 22.6 34.5 64.8 64.0 240.9 77.8
BOBOK 64.8 55.5 11.5 22.7 6.4 6.0 28.2 38.0 68.2 65.9 235.7 78.0
BUNGA 104.6 55.8 29.7 21.5 23.1 13.1 39.5 37.3 57.1 57.3 197.3 74.6
BUYOC 107.2 59.2 22.1 37.5 9.8 13.7 30.3 42.6 58.7 65.3 199.0 78.4
DANTOR 96.9 58.1 16.0 35.3 5.6 11.8 23.4 38.9 58.3 63.8 187.5 78.5
DUMAYUP 133.8 61.6 32.4 39.1 17.0 16.9 40.1 46.2 61.4 70.9 201.4 77.9
HALONG 85.7 57.0 14.2 31.8 5.9 10.2 25.4 38.4 63.6 65.4 199.2 78.7
IPODAM 127.0 76.8 9.7 30.0 7.0 10.0 1.2 19.7 13.1 71.4 136.7 67.2
MAGATDAM 134.2 62.7 26.6 45.4 7.9 16.3 27.0 45.4 49.0 70.2 181.0 78.6
MAPUTI 230.0 74.9 103.5 68.5 118.3 96.2 103.6 98.4 83.5 82.1 174.9 80.7
MARIKIT 176.1 59.6 69.9 31.7 63.4 34.5 85.9 54.3 120.8 70.8 198.5 77.3
MATULID 211.6 73.6 58.8 52.7 9.6 14.0 30.7 59.0 41.1 58.0 165.2 76.5
NORZAGARAY 125.1 76.9 10.0 32.6 10.0 12.8 1.6 22.5 12.5 75.4 139.2 68.2
PADALIS 142.6 57.9 49.6 26.6 43.7 24.0 63.3 46.0 89.0 65.2 194.9 75.9
PANTABANGAN DAM 103.0 55.3 37.3 20.4 33.0 17.9 46.6 39.3 62.3 54.1 180.9 73.7
SANROQUEDAM 40.2 51.0 6.3 14.8 3.3 2.7 13.3 25.3 40.7 56.6 206.6 73.3
STODOMINGO 113.4 58.8 27.7 31.1 17.5 13.6 40.2 43.1 63.9 64.4 211.8 77.7
TALAGUIO 181.0 82.6 44.4 59.7 14.9 35.4 26.3 58.9 48.8 84.1 162.7 75.0
UMIRAY 289.1 76.2 107.1 60.4 58.5 40.1 79.4 74.4 68.1 52.1 168.3 77.4
FEBRUARY MARCH
SITES
APRIL MAYDECEMBER JANUARY
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR DECEMBER 2023 –FEBRUARY 2024CATCHMENT MINMAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%NormalMIN MAX MEAN%Normal
Abra RB 19.672.850.051.3 0.213.54.5 21.4 0.2 4.9 1.8 5.1
Abulug RB 61.3146.199.456.911.064.733.342.7 4.2 24.4 12.7 20.1
Agno RB 18.683.136.450.2 1.017.94.1 16.7 0.2 13.4 2.6 7.7
Bicol RB 284.1528.8347.384.366.9157.292.454.1 9.7 68.9 25.3 19.1
Bued RB 18.438.228.648.9 0.25.62.4 14.3 0.2 2.7 0.7 1.2
Cagayan RB 61.9387.2150.061.8 5.2132.440.141.0 2.0 86.0 18.4 18.5
Laoag RB 25.479.645.745.9 1.824.910.326.8 0.3 9.6 3.4 5.8
Pampanga RB 28.8261.898.461.636.1115.426.029.5 4.3 118.721.1 25.7
Pasig-Laguna RB73.3396.0206.579.810.0122.437.334.4 10.0 46.5 12.5 15.9
Sinocalan RB18.037.023.846.4 0.84.40.5 12.8 0.1 1.9 0.1 1.5
CATCHMENT MINMAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%NormalMIN MAX MEAN%Normal
Agus RB 118.1146.8131.777.943.166.650.040.9 12.7 34.8 22.0 23.6
Agusan RB 188.7397.2275.089.6162.3533.3317.471.9 69.7333.2167.5 49.6
Buayan-Malungon101.2137.1122.590.983.0113.796.679.8 12.8 38.1 28.2 29.6
Cagayan de Oro124.7151.7138.982.446.581.361.446.9 15.3 46.2 30.3 31.5
Cotabato RB108.3210.0138.888.556.2195.386.368.9 25.0112.351.1 44.9
Davao RB 148.6196.6162.890.9107.9181.2132.170.2 52.8106.678.7 53.1
Tagoloan River149.2193.2169.886.975.2147.7108.552.3 31.8 73.4 48.4 36.6
Tagum-Libuganon153.4287.4212.790.1142.2356.6226.671.0 78.4208.5129.5 53.1
LUZON
MINDANAO
JANUARY 2024 FEBRUARY 2024DECEMBER 2023
in (mm) and (%N) FOR DECEMBER 2023 –FEBRUARY 2024CATCHMENT MINMAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%NormalMIN MAX MEAN%Normal
Abra RB 19.672.850.051.3 0.213.54.5 21.4 0.2 4.9 1.8 5.1
Abulug RB 61.3146.199.456.911.064.733.342.7 4.2 24.4 12.7 20.1
Agno RB 18.683.136.450.2 1.017.94.1 16.7 0.2 13.4 2.6 7.7
Bicol RB 284.1528.8347.384.366.9157.292.454.1 9.7 68.9 25.3 19.1
Bued RB 18.438.228.648.9 0.25.62.4 14.3 0.2 2.7 0.7 1.2
Cagayan RB 61.9387.2150.061.8 5.2132.440.141.0 2.0 86.0 18.4 18.5
Laoag RB 25.479.645.745.9 1.824.910.326.8 0.3 9.6 3.4 5.8
Pampanga RB 28.8261.898.461.636.1115.426.029.5 4.3 118.721.1 25.7
Pasig-Laguna RB73.3396.0206.579.810.0122.437.334.4 10.0 46.5 12.5 15.9
Sinocalan RB18.037.023.846.4 0.84.40.5 12.8 0.1 1.9 0.1 1.5
CATCHMENT MINMAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%NormalMIN MAX MEAN%Normal
Agus RB 118.1146.8131.777.943.166.650.040.9 12.7 34.8 22.0 23.6
Agusan RB 188.7397.2275.089.6162.3533.3317.471.9 69.7333.2167.5 49.6
Buayan-Malungon101.2137.1122.590.983.0113.796.679.8 12.8 38.1 28.2 29.6
Cagayan de Oro124.7151.7138.982.446.581.361.446.9 15.3 46.2 30.3 31.5
Cotabato RB108.3210.0138.888.556.2195.386.368.9 25.0112.351.1 44.9
Davao RB 148.6196.6162.890.9107.9181.2132.170.2 52.8106.678.7 53.1
Tagoloan River149.2193.2169.886.975.2147.7108.552.3 31.8 73.4 48.4 36.6
Tagum-Libuganon153.4287.4212.790.1142.2356.6226.671.0 78.4208.5129.5 53.1
LUZON
MINDANAO
JANUARY 2024 FEBRUARY 2024DECEMBER 2023
FORECAST RAINFALL OVER SELECTED RIVER BASINS
in (mm) and (%N) FOR MARCH 2024 –MAY 2024CATCHMENT MIN MAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%Normal
Abra RB 0.827.710.1 19.0 6.384.338.353.0145.8224.8166.480.8
Abulug RB 6.621.212.8 32.323.051.435.554.6129.3148.1139.388.9
Agno RB 0.830.612.0 25.019.384.048.265.7128.4257.0174.769.7
Bicol RB 27.987.946.5 52.1 0.067.232.064.581.393.184.151.3
Bued RB 3.416.49.2 22.236.471.351.669.9169.0252.1201.272.1
Cagayan RB 8.7123.937.5 43.623.3164.258.266.0126.1229.2169.180.2
Laoag RB 0.1 9.9 4.1 10.4 1.529.214.327.3143.8157.9150.384.6
Pampanga RB 10.0116.829.0 38.714.4182.342.859.0111.1205.2151.370.7
Pasig-Laguna RB0.581.222.6 30.212.090.035.764.889.5153.5110.364.1
Sinocalan RB 2.2 9.7 4.0 17.634.764.550.277.9157.4189.2169.468.1
CATCHMENT MIN MAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%Normal
Agus RB 32.252.539.8 55.621.775.240.144.2105.7158.8125.979.2
Agusan RB 86.4292.8165.973.178.6272.5121.174.1106.4212.0173.586.0
Buayan-Malungon37.777.260.7 70.946.9117.576.183.187.1151.2121.475.9
Cagayan de Oro34.866.249.6 59.921.781.048.748.1118.2178.0151.683.1
Cotabato RB 50.5125.974.4 64.658.5165.497.871.0105.5205.8170.982.5
Davao RB 107.4125.6116.680.289.2186.1116.976.1196.3214.0203.790.6
Tagoloan River51.487.666.0 63.940.082.162.154.5122.3181.6154.083.0
Tagum-Libuganon114.1197.3143.874.179.9135.993.975.4192.6201.0197.391.7
MAY 2024MARCH 2024
LUZON
MINDANAO
APRIL 2024
in (mm) and (%N) FOR MARCH 2024 –MAY 2024CATCHMENT MIN MAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%Normal
Abra RB 0.827.710.1 19.0 6.384.338.353.0145.8224.8166.480.8
Abulug RB 6.621.212.8 32.323.051.435.554.6129.3148.1139.388.9
Agno RB 0.830.612.0 25.019.384.048.265.7128.4257.0174.769.7
Bicol RB 27.987.946.5 52.1 0.067.232.064.581.393.184.151.3
Bued RB 3.416.49.2 22.236.471.351.669.9169.0252.1201.272.1
Cagayan RB 8.7123.937.5 43.623.3164.258.266.0126.1229.2169.180.2
Laoag RB 0.1 9.9 4.1 10.4 1.529.214.327.3143.8157.9150.384.6
Pampanga RB 10.0116.829.0 38.714.4182.342.859.0111.1205.2151.370.7
Pasig-Laguna RB0.581.222.6 30.212.090.035.764.889.5153.5110.364.1
Sinocalan RB 2.2 9.7 4.0 17.634.764.550.277.9157.4189.2169.468.1
CATCHMENT MIN MAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%NormalMINMAXMEAN%Normal
Agus RB 32.252.539.8 55.621.775.240.144.2105.7158.8125.979.2
Agusan RB 86.4292.8165.973.178.6272.5121.174.1106.4212.0173.586.0
Buayan-Malungon37.777.260.7 70.946.9117.576.183.187.1151.2121.475.9
Cagayan de Oro34.866.249.6 59.921.781.048.748.1118.2178.0151.683.1
Cotabato RB 50.5125.974.4 64.658.5165.497.871.0105.5205.8170.982.5
Davao RB 107.4125.6116.680.289.2186.1116.976.1196.3214.0203.790.6
Tagoloan River51.487.666.0 63.940.082.162.154.5122.3181.6154.083.0
Tagum-Libuganon114.1197.3143.874.179.9135.993.975.4192.6201.0197.391.7
MAY 2024MARCH 2024
LUZON
MINDANAO
APRIL 2024
DRY DAY FORECAST
➢Dry day is defined as a day
with less than 1 mm of
rainfall is observed.
DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024
➢Dry day is defined as a day
with less than 1 mm of
rainfall is observed.
DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024
DRY DAY* FORECAST
DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024
* Dry day is defined as a day
with less than 1 mm of
rainfall is observed.
DRY DAY FORECAST ANOMALY
Red shade – increased number
of dry days
Blue shade – less than the usual
number of dry days, i.e., more
days with rainPROVINCE DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 24 25 23 24 22 19 25 27 25 28 25 20 1 2 2 4 3 1
BENGUET 22 24 22 23 19 14 24 26 24 26 22 16 2 2 2 3 3 2
IFUGAO 20 23 21 22 19 16 22 25 24 26 22 17 2 2 3 4 3 1
KALINGA 22 25 22 24 22 19 23 26 25 28 24 21 1 1 3 4 2 2
APAYAO 22 24 22 26 24 21 24 25 24 28 26 23 2 1 2 2 2 2
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 21 24 22 23 20 17 23 26 24 27 23 18 2 2 2 4 3 1
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 25 26 23 27 25 21 27 27 25 28 27 22 2 1 2 1 2 1
ILOCOS SUR 24 25 23 23 21 17 25 26 25 28 24 18 1 1 2 5 3 1
LA UNION 24 25 23 23 20 15 25 27 24 27 23 16 1 2 1 4 3 1
PANGASINAN 26 26 24 25 23 18 26 28 24 27 24 20 0 2 0 2 1 2
REGION II
BATANES 16 15 18 21 21 18 17 18 21 24 23 18 1 3 3 3 2 0
CAGAYAN 18 21 21 24 23 21 20 24 24 27 25 23 2 3 3 3 2 2
ISABELA 17 20 18 21 20 19 19 23 22 24 22 21 2 3 4 3 2 2
NUEVA VIZCAYA 20 22 20 21 17 15 21 23 22 24 20 17 1 1 2 3 3 2
QUIRINO 17 18 17 18 16 16 17 21 20 21 18 18 0 3 3 3 2 2
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 26 25 24 26 24 20 27 28 26 28 28 25 1 3 2 2 4 5
BULACAN 21 23 21 22 22 17 22 26 24 26 24 22 1 3 3 4 2 5
NUEVA ECIJA 22 24 21 24 21 18 23 25 23 26 23 20 1 1 2 2 2 2
PAMPANGA 24 25 22 24 22 18 25 28 24 27 24 22 1 3 2 3 2 4
TARLAC 25 25 22 25 23 18 26 27 24 27 23 21 1 2 2 2 0 3
ZAMBALES 25 25 23 25 23 19 26 27 24 27 25 23 1 2 1 2 2 4
AURORA 15 16 16 17 15 16 15 19 19 20 18 19 0 3 3 3 3 3
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 21 24 22 24 22 19 21 25 24 27 23 22 0 1 2 3 1 3
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 20 22 21 24 22 21 21 26 25 26 25 23 1 4 4 2 3 2
CAVITE 24 25 24 26 24 22 25 28 27 29 27 24 1 3 3 3 3 2
LAGUNA 16 20 19 22 21 18 17 23 22 24 22 21 1 3 3 2 1 3
RIZAL 17 21 19 21 21 17 18 24 22 25 22 21 1 3 3 4 1 4
QUEZON 11 14 15 18 19 17 11 19 20 22 22 21 0 5 5 4 3 4
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 11 15 16 19 19 18 12 21 21 22 23 22 1 6 5 3 4 4
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 21 22 21 24 23 21 22 26 24 26 26 25 1 4 3 2 3 4
ORIENTAL MINDORO 18 20 18 22 21 20 18 24 22 24 25 24 0 4 4 2 4 4
ROMBLON 16 19 18 21 21 19 16 24 22 24 24 22 0 5 4 3 3 3
PALAWAN 22 24 23 25 22 21 23 27 25 27 25 24 1 3 2 2 3 3
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 11 14 14 16 16 17 12 18 20 20 19 20 1 4 6 4 3 3
CAMARINES NORTE 10 13 14 17 20 18 9 18 18 22 23 22 -1 5 4 5 3 4
CAMARINES SUR 11 14 15 17 18 18 11 19 19 21 21 21 0 5 4 4 3 3
CATANDUANES 12 16 16 17 16 18 12 21 20 21 20 22 0 5 4 4 4 4
MASBATE 15 18 18 21 22 21 17 20 23 25 24 25 2 2 5 4 2 4
SORSOGON 12 14 15 16 17 18 13 17 21 20 20 22 1 3 6 4 3 4
NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024
* Dry day is defined as a day
with less than 1 mm of
rainfall is observed.
DRY DAY FORECAST ANOMALY
Red shade – increased number
of dry days
Blue shade – less than the usual
number of dry days, i.e., more
days with rainPROVINCE DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 24 25 23 24 22 19 25 27 25 28 25 20 1 2 2 4 3 1
BENGUET 22 24 22 23 19 14 24 26 24 26 22 16 2 2 2 3 3 2
IFUGAO 20 23 21 22 19 16 22 25 24 26 22 17 2 2 3 4 3 1
KALINGA 22 25 22 24 22 19 23 26 25 28 24 21 1 1 3 4 2 2
APAYAO 22 24 22 26 24 21 24 25 24 28 26 23 2 1 2 2 2 2
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 21 24 22 23 20 17 23 26 24 27 23 18 2 2 2 4 3 1
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 25 26 23 27 25 21 27 27 25 28 27 22 2 1 2 1 2 1
ILOCOS SUR 24 25 23 23 21 17 25 26 25 28 24 18 1 1 2 5 3 1
LA UNION 24 25 23 23 20 15 25 27 24 27 23 16 1 2 1 4 3 1
PANGASINAN 26 26 24 25 23 18 26 28 24 27 24 20 0 2 0 2 1 2
REGION II
BATANES 16 15 18 21 21 18 17 18 21 24 23 18 1 3 3 3 2 0
CAGAYAN 18 21 21 24 23 21 20 24 24 27 25 23 2 3 3 3 2 2
ISABELA 17 20 18 21 20 19 19 23 22 24 22 21 2 3 4 3 2 2
NUEVA VIZCAYA 20 22 20 21 17 15 21 23 22 24 20 17 1 1 2 3 3 2
QUIRINO 17 18 17 18 16 16 17 21 20 21 18 18 0 3 3 3 2 2
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 26 25 24 26 24 20 27 28 26 28 28 25 1 3 2 2 4 5
BULACAN 21 23 21 22 22 17 22 26 24 26 24 22 1 3 3 4 2 5
NUEVA ECIJA 22 24 21 24 21 18 23 25 23 26 23 20 1 1 2 2 2 2
PAMPANGA 24 25 22 24 22 18 25 28 24 27 24 22 1 3 2 3 2 4
TARLAC 25 25 22 25 23 18 26 27 24 27 23 21 1 2 2 2 0 3
ZAMBALES 25 25 23 25 23 19 26 27 24 27 25 23 1 2 1 2 2 4
AURORA 15 16 16 17 15 16 15 19 19 20 18 19 0 3 3 3 3 3
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 21 24 22 24 22 19 21 25 24 27 23 22 0 1 2 3 1 3
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 20 22 21 24 22 21 21 26 25 26 25 23 1 4 4 2 3 2
CAVITE 24 25 24 26 24 22 25 28 27 29 27 24 1 3 3 3 3 2
LAGUNA 16 20 19 22 21 18 17 23 22 24 22 21 1 3 3 2 1 3
RIZAL 17 21 19 21 21 17 18 24 22 25 22 21 1 3 3 4 1 4
QUEZON 11 14 15 18 19 17 11 19 20 22 22 21 0 5 5 4 3 4
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 11 15 16 19 19 18 12 21 21 22 23 22 1 6 5 3 4 4
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 21 22 21 24 23 21 22 26 24 26 26 25 1 4 3 2 3 4
ORIENTAL MINDORO 18 20 18 22 21 20 18 24 22 24 25 24 0 4 4 2 4 4
ROMBLON 16 19 18 21 21 19 16 24 22 24 24 22 0 5 4 3 3 3
PALAWAN 22 24 23 25 22 21 23 27 25 27 25 24 1 3 2 2 3 3
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 11 14 14 16 16 17 12 18 20 20 19 20 1 4 6 4 3 3
CAMARINES NORTE 10 13 14 17 20 18 9 18 18 22 23 22 -1 5 4 5 3 4
CAMARINES SUR 11 14 15 17 18 18 11 19 19 21 21 21 0 5 4 4 3 3
CATANDUANES 12 16 16 17 16 18 12 21 20 21 20 22 0 5 4 4 4 4
MASBATE 15 18 18 21 22 21 17 20 23 25 24 25 2 2 5 4 2 4
SORSOGON 12 14 15 16 17 18 13 17 21 20 20 22 1 3 6 4 3 4
NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
DRY DAY* FORECAST
DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024
* Dry day is defined as a day
with less than 1 mm of
rainfall is observed.
DRY DAY FORECAST ANOMALY
Red shade – increased number
of dry days
Blue shade – less than the usual
number of dry days, i.e., more
days with rainPROVINCE DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN 19 21 20 22 21 19 19 25 23 25 25 21 0 4 3 3 4 2
ANTIQUE 21 23 21 23 22 18 22 26 24 25 25 19 1 3 3 2 3 1
CAPIZ 18 20 20 22 21 19 19 24 23 26 24 22 1 4 3 4 3 3
GUIMARAS 21 23 21 23 22 19 22 25 23 25 24 18 1 2 2 2 2 -1
ILOILO 20 22 20 23 22 19 21 24 23 25 24 20 1 2 3 2 2 1
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 20 22 20 23 23 21 21 24 23 25 25 22 1 2 3 2 2 1
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 20 21 20 23 23 22 20 24 23 26 25 23 0 3 3 3 2 1
BOHOL 17 18 18 21 20 20 18 22 21 23 23 22 1 4 3 2 3 2
CEBU 18 20 19 22 22 21 19 23 22 25 24 24 1 3 3 3 2 3
SIQUIJOR 18 19 19 21 21 21 19 23 22 25 24 22 1 4 3 4 3 1
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 14 17 16 19 19 20 16 19 21 24 22 24 2 2 5 5 3 4
EASTERN SAMAR 8 10 10 14 13 15 8 12 14 15 15 18 0 2 4 1 2 3
LEYTE 13 15 15 19 18 20 14 19 20 23 22 22 1 4 5 4 4 2
NORTHERN SAMAR 10 11 13 15 16 17 10 14 18 17 19 21 0 3 5 2 3 4
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 11 13 13 16 15 17 12 15 17 18 18 20 1 2 4 2 3 3
SOUTHERN LEYTE 13 14 14 18 19 20 13 18 18 21 22 22 0 4 4 3 3 2
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 17 19 18 21 20 19 18 24 22 25 25 21 1 5 4 4 5 2
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 17 19 18 20 19 18 19 24 21 24 24 19 2 5 3 4 5 1
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 18 19 18 21 20 19 19 25 22 25 24 20 1 6 4 4 4 1
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 17 17 17 19 18 14 18 21 20 23 22 16 1 4 3 4 4 2
CAMIGUIN 18 18 18 21 21 20 19 21 22 23 23 21 1 3 4 2 2 1
LANAO DEL NORTE 18 19 18 20 19 17 19 22 21 23 23 17 1 3 3 3 4 0
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 16 18 17 20 19 17 17 22 21 23 23 18 1 4 4 3 4 1
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 19 18 18 21 20 18 20 21 22 23 24 19 1 3 4 2 4 1
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
DAVAO DE ORO 16 16 16 18 17 16 17 18 19 21 20 17 1 2 3 3 3 1
DAVAO CITY 19 19 19 21 19 17 20 23 22 25 22 19 1 4 3 4 3 2
DAVAO DEL NORTE 17 17 17 19 18 16 18 21 21 23 21 17 1 4 4 4 3 1
DAVAO DEL SUR 21 21 20 23 20 19 21 24 23 26 23 21 0 3 3 3 3 2
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 22 22 21 24 22 22 23 24 24 27 24 24 1 2 3 3 2 2
DAVAO ORIENTAL 17 16 16 18 17 18 17 18 19 20 19 17 0 2 3 2 2 -1
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 21 22 20 23 21 20 21 25 22 27 23 22 0 3 2 4 2 2
COTABATO 19 20 18 20 18 16 19 24 20 25 22 18 0 4 2 5 4 2
SARANGANI 22 22 21 24 22 22 22 25 23 27 24 24 0 3 2 3 2 2
SULTAN KUDARAT 20 21 19 21 19 18 20 25 20 26 22 20 0 4 1 5 3 2
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 14 14 14 17 18 19 14 17 18 21 21 21 0 3 4 4 3 2
AGUSAN DEL SUR 14 14 13 16 16 15 13 16 17 20 19 17 -1 2 4 4 3 2
DINAGAT ISLANDS 8 10 10 13 14 19 9 13 14 17 18 20 1 3 4 4 4 1
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 9 10 10 13 14 19 9 12 13 16 17 20 0 2 3 3 3 1
SURIGAO DEL SUR 10 10 9 12 14 16 10 11 13 15 16 16 0 1 4 3 2 0
ARMM
BASILAN 23 24 21 23 21 21 25 29 24 26 25 21 2 5 3 3 4 0
MAGUINDANAO 19 20 18 20 18 16 19 24 19 24 21 18 0 4 1 4 3 2
LANAO DEL SUR 19 19 17 20 18 15 19 23 20 23 22 16 0 4 3 3 4 1
SULU 25 25 23 24 21 22 27 30 25 27 25 22 2 5 2 3 4 0
NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024
* Dry day is defined as a day
with less than 1 mm of
rainfall is observed.
DRY DAY FORECAST ANOMALY
Red shade – increased number
of dry days
Blue shade – less than the usual
number of dry days, i.e., more
days with rainPROVINCE DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY DECJANFEBMARAPRMAY
REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)
AKLAN 19 21 20 22 21 19 19 25 23 25 25 21 0 4 3 3 4 2
ANTIQUE 21 23 21 23 22 18 22 26 24 25 25 19 1 3 3 2 3 1
CAPIZ 18 20 20 22 21 19 19 24 23 26 24 22 1 4 3 4 3 3
GUIMARAS 21 23 21 23 22 19 22 25 23 25 24 18 1 2 2 2 2 -1
ILOILO 20 22 20 23 22 19 21 24 23 25 24 20 1 2 3 2 2 1
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 20 22 20 23 23 21 21 24 23 25 25 22 1 2 3 2 2 1
REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)
NEGROS ORIENTAL 20 21 20 23 23 22 20 24 23 26 25 23 0 3 3 3 2 1
BOHOL 17 18 18 21 20 20 18 22 21 23 23 22 1 4 3 2 3 2
CEBU 18 20 19 22 22 21 19 23 22 25 24 24 1 3 3 3 2 3
SIQUIJOR 18 19 19 21 21 21 19 23 22 25 24 22 1 4 3 4 3 1
REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)
BILIRAN 14 17 16 19 19 20 16 19 21 24 22 24 2 2 5 5 3 4
EASTERN SAMAR 8 10 10 14 13 15 8 12 14 15 15 18 0 2 4 1 2 3
LEYTE 13 15 15 19 18 20 14 19 20 23 22 22 1 4 5 4 4 2
NORTHERN SAMAR 10 11 13 15 16 17 10 14 18 17 19 21 0 3 5 2 3 4
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 11 13 13 16 15 17 12 15 17 18 18 20 1 2 4 2 3 3
SOUTHERN LEYTE 13 14 14 18 19 20 13 18 18 21 22 22 0 4 4 3 3 2
REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 17 19 18 21 20 19 18 24 22 25 25 21 1 5 4 4 5 2
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 17 19 18 20 19 18 19 24 21 24 24 19 2 5 3 4 5 1
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 18 19 18 21 20 19 19 25 22 25 24 20 1 6 4 4 4 1
REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)
BUKIDNON 17 17 17 19 18 14 18 21 20 23 22 16 1 4 3 4 4 2
CAMIGUIN 18 18 18 21 21 20 19 21 22 23 23 21 1 3 4 2 2 1
LANAO DEL NORTE 18 19 18 20 19 17 19 22 21 23 23 17 1 3 3 3 4 0
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 16 18 17 20 19 17 17 22 21 23 23 18 1 4 4 3 4 1
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 19 18 18 21 20 18 20 21 22 23 24 19 1 3 4 2 4 1
REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)
DAVAO DE ORO 16 16 16 18 17 16 17 18 19 21 20 17 1 2 3 3 3 1
DAVAO CITY 19 19 19 21 19 17 20 23 22 25 22 19 1 4 3 4 3 2
DAVAO DEL NORTE 17 17 17 19 18 16 18 21 21 23 21 17 1 4 4 4 3 1
DAVAO DEL SUR 21 21 20 23 20 19 21 24 23 26 23 21 0 3 3 3 3 2
DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 22 22 21 24 22 22 23 24 24 27 24 24 1 2 3 3 2 2
DAVAO ORIENTAL 17 16 16 18 17 18 17 18 19 20 19 17 0 2 3 2 2 -1
REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)
SOUTH COTABATO 21 22 20 23 21 20 21 25 22 27 23 22 0 3 2 4 2 2
COTABATO 19 20 18 20 18 16 19 24 20 25 22 18 0 4 2 5 4 2
SARANGANI 22 22 21 24 22 22 22 25 23 27 24 24 0 3 2 3 2 2
SULTAN KUDARAT 20 21 19 21 19 18 20 25 20 26 22 20 0 4 1 5 3 2
REGION XIII- CARAGA
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 14 14 14 17 18 19 14 17 18 21 21 21 0 3 4 4 3 2
AGUSAN DEL SUR 14 14 13 16 16 15 13 16 17 20 19 17 -1 2 4 4 3 2
DINAGAT ISLANDS 8 10 10 13 14 19 9 13 14 17 18 20 1 3 4 4 4 1
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 9 10 10 13 14 19 9 12 13 16 17 20 0 2 3 3 3 1
SURIGAO DEL SUR 10 10 9 12 14 16 10 11 13 15 16 16 0 1 4 3 2 0
ARMM
BASILAN 23 24 21 23 21 21 25 29 24 26 25 21 2 5 3 3 4 0
MAGUINDANAO 19 20 18 20 18 16 19 24 19 24 21 18 0 4 1 4 3 2
LANAO DEL SUR 19 19 17 20 18 15 19 23 20 23 22 16 0 4 3 3 4 1
SULU 25 25 23 24 21 22 27 30 25 27 25 22 2 5 2 3 4 0
NORMAL (1991 - 2020) FORECAST ANOMALY
PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION
Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 –80 below normal
81 –120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal ISSUED: 21 November 2023
Less than or = 40 way below normal
41 –80 below normal
81 –120 near normal
Greater than 120 above normal ISSUED: 21 November 2023
OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of December 2023
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
(6)
ABRA
ILOCOS NORTE
BATAAN
ZAMBALES
METRO MANILA
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
(18)
BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE,
ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, AURORA, PALAWAN
(3)
BATANGAS
CAVITE
ORIENTAL MINDORO
VISAYAS
(1)
ANTIQUE
NONE NONE
MINDANAO
NONE (2)
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
TAWI-TAWI
NONE
TOTAL
7 20 3
Issued: 21 November 2023
By End of December 2023
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
(6)
ABRA
ILOCOS NORTE
BATAAN
ZAMBALES
METRO MANILA
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
(18)
BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE,
ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, AURORA, PALAWAN
(3)
BATANGAS
CAVITE
ORIENTAL MINDORO
VISAYAS
(1)
ANTIQUE
NONE NONE
MINDANAO
NONE (2)
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
TAWI-TAWI
NONE
TOTAL
7 20 3
Issued: 21 November 2023
OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of January 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
(1)
SPRATLY ISLANDS
(10)
ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, ISABELA,
QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN,
ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
(17)
BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE,
ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA,
PAMPANGA, TARLAC, BATANGAS,
CAVITE, ORIENTAL MINDORO,
PALAWAN
VISAYAS
(NONE) (1)
ANTIQUE
NONE
MINDANAO
(NONE) (2)
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
TAWI-TAWI
NONE
TOTAL
1 13 17
Issued: 21 November 2023
By End of January 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
(1)
SPRATLY ISLANDS
(10)
ABRA, ILOCOS NORTE, ISABELA,
QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN,
ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO
(17)
BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE,
ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA,
PAMPANGA, TARLAC, BATANGAS,
CAVITE, ORIENTAL MINDORO,
PALAWAN
VISAYAS
(NONE) (1)
ANTIQUE
NONE
MINDANAO
(NONE) (2)
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
TAWI-TAWI
NONE
TOTAL
1 13 17
Issued: 21 November 2023
OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of February 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
(10)
BATANES, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE,
ROMBLON, ALBAY, CAMARINES
NORTE, CAMARINES SUR,
CATANDUANES, MASBATE,
SORSOGON
(3)
LAGUNA
RIZAL
SPRATLY ISLANDS
(27)
ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, PALAWAN
VISAYAS
(10)
AKLAN, CAPIZ, BOHOL, CEBU,
BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE,
NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
(5)
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
SIQUIJOR
(1)
ANTIQUE
MINDANAO
(21)
BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL
NORTE, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO
DE ORO, DAVAO CITY, DAVAO DEL
NORTE, DAVAO DEL SUR, DAVAO
OCCIDENTAL,
DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH
COTABATO, COTABATO, SARANGANI,
SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL
NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR, DINAGAT
ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL NORTE,
SURIGAO DEL SUR, MAGUINDANAO,
LANAO DEL SUR
(5)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
BASILAN
SULU
(2)
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
TAWI-TAWI
TOTAL
41 13 30
Issued: 21 November 2023
By End of February 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
(10)
BATANES, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE,
ROMBLON, ALBAY, CAMARINES
NORTE, CAMARINES SUR,
CATANDUANES, MASBATE,
SORSOGON
(3)
LAGUNA
RIZAL
SPRATLY ISLANDS
(27)
ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, PALAWAN
VISAYAS
(10)
AKLAN, CAPIZ, BOHOL, CEBU,
BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE,
NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
(5)
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
SIQUIJOR
(1)
ANTIQUE
MINDANAO
(21)
BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL
NORTE, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO
DE ORO, DAVAO CITY, DAVAO DEL
NORTE, DAVAO DEL SUR, DAVAO
OCCIDENTAL,
DAVAO ORIENTAL, SOUTH
COTABATO, COTABATO, SARANGANI,
SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL
NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR, DINAGAT
ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL NORTE,
SURIGAO DEL SUR, MAGUINDANAO,
LANAO DEL SUR
(5)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
BASILAN
SULU
(2)
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
TAWI-TAWI
TOTAL
41 13 30
Issued: 21 November 2023
OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of March 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
NONE (9)
QUEZON
MARINDUQUE
ROMBLON
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
MASBATE
SORSOGON
(30)
ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA,
RIZAL, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO,
ORIENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN,
SPRATLY ISLANDS
VISAYAS
NONE (12)
AKLAN, CAPIZ, NEGROS ORIENTAL,
BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN,
EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN
SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR),
SOUTHERN LEYTE
(4)
ANTIQUE
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
MINDANAO
NONE (22)
BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL
NORTE, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO DE
ORO, DAVAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO DEL
SUR, DAVAO OCCIDENTAL, DAVAO
ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO,
COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN
KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN
DEL SUR, DINAGAT ISLANDS, SURIGAO
DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN,
MAGUINDANAO, LANAO DEL SUR, SULU
(5)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
TAWI-TAWI
TOTAL
0 43 39
Issued: 21 November 2023
By End of March 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
NONE (9)
QUEZON
MARINDUQUE
ROMBLON
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
MASBATE
SORSOGON
(30)
ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA,
RIZAL, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO,
ORIENTAL MINDORO, PALAWAN,
SPRATLY ISLANDS
VISAYAS
NONE (12)
AKLAN, CAPIZ, NEGROS ORIENTAL,
BOHOL, CEBU, SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN,
EASTERN SAMAR, LEYTE, NORTHERN
SAMAR, SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR),
SOUTHERN LEYTE
(4)
ANTIQUE
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
MINDANAO
NONE (22)
BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL
NORTE, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO DE
ORO, DAVAO DEL NORTE, DAVAO DEL
SUR, DAVAO OCCIDENTAL, DAVAO
ORIENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO,
COTABATO, SARANGANI, SULTAN
KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN
DEL SUR, DINAGAT ISLANDS, SURIGAO
DEL NORTE, SURIGAO DEL SUR, BASILAN,
MAGUINDANAO, LANAO DEL SUR, SULU
(5)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
TAWI-TAWI
TOTAL
0 43 39
Issued: 21 November 2023
OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of April 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
NONE (8)
LA UNION
QUEZON
MARINDUQUE
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
SORSOGON
(31)
ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, NUEVA
VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN,
NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC,
ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA,
BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN,
SPRATLY ISLANDS
VISAYAS
NONE (8)
BOHOL
CEBU
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
(8)
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
SIQUIJOR
MINDANAO
NONE (16)
BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL ,
NORTE, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO
DEL NORTE, DAVAO OCCIDENTAL,
SOUTH COTABATO, COTABATO,
SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL
NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR, DINAGAT
ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL NORTE,
SURIGAO DEL SUR, MAGUINDANAO,
LANAO DEL SUR
(7)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
BASILAN
SULU
TAWI-TAWI
TOTAL
0 32 46
Issued: 21 November 2023
By End of April 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
NONE (8)
LA UNION
QUEZON
MARINDUQUE
ALBAY
CAMARINES NORTE
CAMARINES SUR
CATANDUANES
SORSOGON
(31)
ABRA, BENGUET, IFUGAO, KALINGA,
APAYAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, ILOCOS
NORTE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION,
PANGASINAN, CAGAYAN, ISABELA, NUEVA
VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN, BULACAN,
NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA, TARLAC,
ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO MANILA,
BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA, RIZAL,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN,
SPRATLY ISLANDS
VISAYAS
NONE (8)
BOHOL
CEBU
BILIRAN
EASTERN SAMAR
LEYTE
NORTHERN SAMAR
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR)
SOUTHERN LEYTE
(8)
AKLAN
ANTIQUE
CAPIZ
GUIMARAS
ILOILO
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL
NEGROS ORIENTAL
SIQUIJOR
MINDANAO
NONE (16)
BUKIDNON, CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL ,
NORTE, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO
DEL NORTE, DAVAO OCCIDENTAL,
SOUTH COTABATO, COTABATO,
SULTAN KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL
NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR, DINAGAT
ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL NORTE,
SURIGAO DEL SUR, MAGUINDANAO,
LANAO DEL SUR
(7)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY
MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL
BASILAN
SULU
TAWI-TAWI
TOTAL
0 32 46
Issued: 21 November 2023
OUTLOOK OVER DIFFERENT PROVINCES
By End of May 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
NONE (5)
ABRA
KALINGA
APAYAO
ILOCOS NORTE
LA UNION
(33)
BENGUET, IFUGAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE,
ILOCOS SUR, PANGASINAN, ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA,
RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN,
SPRATLY ISLANDS, ALBAY, CAMARINES
NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES,
MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS
NONE NONE (16)
AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,
ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL,
NEGROS ORIENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU,
SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR,
LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO
(6)
BUKIDNON
COTABATO
AGUSAN DEL SUR
SURIGAO DEL SUR
MAGUINDANAO
LANAO DEL SUR
NONE (16)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA
DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY,
CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS
OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO
OCCIDENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SULTAN
KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, DINAGAT
ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, BASILAN,
SULU, TAWI-TAWI
TOTAL
6 5 65
Issued: 21 November 2023
By End of May 2024
AREAS DRY CONDITION DRY SPELL DROUGHT
LUZON
NONE (5)
ABRA
KALINGA
APAYAO
ILOCOS NORTE
LA UNION
(33)
BENGUET, IFUGAO, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE,
ILOCOS SUR, PANGASINAN, ISABELA,
NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, BATAAN,
BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, PAMPANGA,
TARLAC, ZAMBALES, AURORA, METRO
MANILA, BATANGAS, CAVITE, LAGUNA,
RIZAL, QUEZON, MARINDUQUE,
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, ORIENTAL
MINDORO, ROMBLON, PALAWAN,
SPRATLY ISLANDS, ALBAY, CAMARINES
NORTE, CAMARINES SUR, CATANDUANES,
MASBATE, SORSOGON
VISAYAS
NONE NONE (16)
AKLAN, ANTIQUE, CAPIZ, GUIMARAS,
ILOILO, NEGROS OCCIDENTAL,
NEGROS ORIENTAL, BOHOL, CEBU,
SIQUIJOR, BILIRAN, EASTERN SAMAR,
LEYTE, NORTHERN SAMAR, SAMAR
(WESTERN SAMAR), SOUTHERN LEYTE
MINDANAO
(6)
BUKIDNON
COTABATO
AGUSAN DEL SUR
SURIGAO DEL SUR
MAGUINDANAO
LANAO DEL SUR
NONE (16)
ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE, ZAMBOANGA
DEL SUR, ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY,
CAMIGUIN, LANAO DEL NORTE, MISAMIS
OCCIDENTAL, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, DAVAO
OCCIDENTAL, SOUTH COTABATO, SULTAN
KUDARAT, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, DINAGAT
ISLANDS, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, BASILAN,
SULU, TAWI-TAWI
TOTAL
6 5 65
Issued: 21 November 2023
Drought Severity
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)–widely used index to characterize meteorological drought on a
range of timescales.
Basic Assumptions:
Short timescale (i.e., 3-6 months), the SPI is closely related to soil moisture
Longer timescale (i.e., more than 6, 9,12 months) SPI can be related to groundwater or reservoir storage
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/standardized-precipitation-index-spi#:~:text=The%20Standardized%20Precipitation%20Index%20(SPI,to%20groundwater%20and%20reservoir%20storage
WMO
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)–widely used index to characterize meteorological drought on a
range of timescales.
Basic Assumptions:
Short timescale (i.e., 3-6 months), the SPI is closely related to soil moisture
Longer timescale (i.e., more than 6, 9,12 months) SPI can be related to groundwater or reservoir storage
https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/standardized-precipitation-index-spi#:~:text=The%20Standardized%20Precipitation%20Index%20(SPI,to%20groundwater%20and%20reservoir%20storage
WMO
MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST
(DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024)
Warmer
Warmer
Warmer
Slightly
warmer
Slightly
warmer
Average
Average
Warmer
slightly cooler
cooler
Slightly
warmer
Warmer
Warmer
Average
Average
Average
Average
slightly cooler
slightly cooler
Slightly cooler
Slightly warmer
warmer
Slightly warmer
Average
Average
Slightly cooler
slightly cooler
slightly cooler
warmer
warmer
Average
Average
Average
cooler
cooler
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Average
Average
Average
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
cooler
slightly cooler
slightly cooler
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
warme
r
warme
r
warme
r
slightly cooler
slightly cooler
Average
Average
Average
TEMPERATURE FORECAST
(DECEMBER 2023 – MAY 2024)
Warmer
Warmer
Warmer
Slightly
warmer
Slightly
warmer
Average
Average
Warmer
slightly cooler
cooler
Slightly
warmer
Warmer
Warmer
Average
Average
Average
Average
slightly cooler
slightly cooler
Slightly cooler
Slightly warmer
warmer
Slightly warmer
Average
Average
Slightly cooler
slightly cooler
slightly cooler
warmer
warmer
Average
Average
Average
cooler
cooler
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Average
Average
Average
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
cooler
slightly cooler
slightly cooler
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
Slightly warmer
warme
r
warme
r
warme
r
slightly cooler
slightly cooler
Average
Average
Average
Updated : 20 November 2023
FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURENorthern Luzon 26.734.526.635.527.835.928.738.029.639.831.440.8
Lowlands Luzon 27.137.726.035.726.436.629.137.329.539.631.639.9
Mountainous Luzon 25.427.224.928.325.327.226.228.027.630.226.228.7
Metro Manila 33.434.631.634.632.635.334.636.236.038.236.238.3
Lowlands Visayas 31.635.130.534.730.435.830.736.732.337.732.337.5
Lowlands Mindanao 32.639.632.037.031.637.531.138.732.539.533.438.8
Mountainous Mindanao 33.033.632.033.832.935.734.235.634.936.434.036.2
TMAX Summary
Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 May-24
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Apr-24 Northern Luzon 13.821.813.120.313.221.914.822.515.224.320.725.0
Lowlands Luzon 20.325.419.625.216.825.318.525.919.326.021.427.5
Mountainous Luzon 11.813.0 9.5 11.6 9.4 12.112.314.812.215.015.416.3
Metro Manila 20.123.818.524.017.623.617.924.419.925.521.426.1
Lowlands Visayas 21.225.220.024.918.724.419.525.219.525.921.525.9
Lowlands Mindanao 20.123.718.823.717.623.617.923.920.524.721.425.2
Mountainous Mindanao 15.017.013.416.412.415.414.016.515.017.216.118.9
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
TMIN Summary
Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24
FORECAST RANGES OF EXTREME TEMPERATURENorthern Luzon 26.734.526.635.527.835.928.738.029.639.831.440.8
Lowlands Luzon 27.137.726.035.726.436.629.137.329.539.631.639.9
Mountainous Luzon 25.427.224.928.325.327.226.228.027.630.226.228.7
Metro Manila 33.434.631.634.632.635.334.636.236.038.236.238.3
Lowlands Visayas 31.635.130.534.730.435.830.736.732.337.732.337.5
Lowlands Mindanao 32.639.632.037.031.637.531.138.732.539.533.438.8
Mountainous Mindanao 33.033.632.033.832.935.734.235.634.936.434.036.2
TMAX Summary
Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 May-24
Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range Tmax-Range
Apr-24 Northern Luzon 13.821.813.120.313.221.914.822.515.224.320.725.0
Lowlands Luzon 20.325.419.625.216.825.318.525.919.326.021.427.5
Mountainous Luzon 11.813.0 9.5 11.6 9.4 12.112.314.812.215.015.416.3
Metro Manila 20.123.818.524.017.623.617.924.419.925.521.426.1
Lowlands Visayas 21.225.220.024.918.724.419.525.219.525.921.525.9
Lowlands Mindanao 20.123.718.823.717.623.617.923.920.524.721.425.2
Mountainous Mindanao 15.017.013.416.412.415.414.016.515.017.216.118.9
Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range Tmin-Range
TMIN Summary
Dec-23 Jan-24 Feb-24 Mar-24 Apr-24 May-24
DECEMBER
2023
1 or 2
MARCH
2024
0 or 1
JANUARY
2024
0 or 1
APRIL
2024
0 or 1
FEBRUARY
2024
0 or 1
MAY
2024
1 or 2
2-5 TCs expected
Tropical Cyclone Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948-2015
2023
1 or 2
MARCH
2024
0 or 1
JANUARY
2024
0 or 1
APRIL
2024
0 or 1
FEBRUARY
2024
0 or 1
MAY
2024
1 or 2
2-5 TCs expected
Tropical Cyclone Tracks Climatology with actual tracks from 1948-2015
SUMMARY
ENSO Alert System StatusEl Niño Advisory #5
➢A strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific, showing signs of further intensification
in the coming months as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) reach more than
1.5⁰C.
Forecast Rainfall Conditions:
DECEMBER 2023
➢generally below normal in most parts of Luzon while most of Visayas and Mindanao are likely to
receive near normal rainfall;
➢40-45% probability for below normal in most parts of Luzon and Visayas and near normal for most
of Mindanao.
JANUARY – MARCH 2024
➢generally way below to below normal in most parts of the country;
➢high probability for below normal in most parts of the country.
APRIL 2024
➢generally below normal in most parts of the country;
➢40-45% probability for below normal.
MAY 2024
➢generally below normal in most parts of the country except for northern part of Luzon and the
eastern and central part of Mindanao where near normal is likely;
➢50-60% probability for below normal in most parts of the country.
ENSO Alert System StatusEl Niño Advisory #5
➢A strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific, showing signs of further intensification
in the coming months as sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) reach more than
1.5⁰C.
Forecast Rainfall Conditions:
DECEMBER 2023
➢generally below normal in most parts of Luzon while most of Visayas and Mindanao are likely to
receive near normal rainfall;
➢40-45% probability for below normal in most parts of Luzon and Visayas and near normal for most
of Mindanao.
JANUARY – MARCH 2024
➢generally way below to below normal in most parts of the country;
➢high probability for below normal in most parts of the country.
APRIL 2024
➢generally below normal in most parts of the country;
➢40-45% probability for below normal.
MAY 2024
➢generally below normal in most parts of the country except for northern part of Luzon and the
eastern and central part of Mindanao where near normal is likely;
➢50-60% probability for below normal in most parts of the country.
SUMMARY
Forecast Rainfall:
Forecast Temperature
➢Below average to warmer than average surface air temperatures are expected throughout the
country during the forecast period.
➢Cold temperature surges are expected to occur during the Northeast monsoon season.
Tropical Cyclone
➢2 – 5 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
from December 2023 – May 2024.
Meteorological Dry Spell/Drought Outlook:
End of February 2024
➢15% of the country potential for dry spell (13 provinces);
➢36% potential for drought (30 provinces).
End of April 2024
➢38% potential for dry spell (32 provinces);
➢55% of the country potential for drought (46 provinces).
End of May 2024
➢6% potential for dry spell (5 provinces);
➢77% of the country potential for drought (65 provinces).
Drought Severity
➢3-month SPI suggests that most parts of the country will likely experience moderately dry
conditions from JFM to FMA 2024 season.
Forecast Rainfall:
Forecast Temperature
➢Below average to warmer than average surface air temperatures are expected throughout the
country during the forecast period.
➢Cold temperature surges are expected to occur during the Northeast monsoon season.
Tropical Cyclone
➢2 – 5 tropical cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
from December 2023 – May 2024.
Meteorological Dry Spell/Drought Outlook:
End of February 2024
➢15% of the country potential for dry spell (13 provinces);
➢36% potential for drought (30 provinces).
End of April 2024
➢38% potential for dry spell (32 provinces);
➢55% of the country potential for drought (46 provinces).
End of May 2024
➢6% potential for dry spell (5 provinces);
➢77% of the country potential for drought (65 provinces).
Drought Severity
➢3-month SPI suggests that most parts of the country will likely experience moderately dry
conditions from JFM to FMA 2024 season.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the
ongoing El Niño and updates/advisories
shall be issued as appropriate.
Tentative schedule of
167
th
CF:
27 December 2023
ongoing El Niño and updates/advisories
shall be issued as appropriate.
Tentative schedule of
167
th
CF:
27 December 2023
www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
www.facebook.com/pagasa.dost.gov.ph
@dost_pagasa
TRUNKLINE: (02) 8284- 0800
EXTENSIONS
TYPHOON: 4801
FLOOD: 4855
CLIMATE: 4920 or 4921
MEDIA: 4865
Thank you for
listening!
www.facebook.com/pagasa.dost.gov.ph
@dost_pagasa
TRUNKLINE: (02) 8284- 0800
EXTENSIONS
TYPHOON: 4801
FLOOD: 4855
CLIMATE: 4920 or 4921
MEDIA: 4865
Thank you for
listening!
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