CO2 Emission Reduction Substitution paths, negative co2 emission.pptx

methods to reduce CO2

1. CO2 Emission Reduction: Substitution paths, Negative CO2 Emission Presented by: Mark Augusto V. Agus

2. Introduction Human activities are changing the natural greenhouse. Over the last century the burning of fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Humans have increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration by 47% since the Industrial Revolution began. This is the most important long-lived "forcing" of climate change. Global warming and the associated climate change are a global problem, and thus reducing the greenhouse gases driving this process is a global challenge.

3. Rationale for negative emissions in future climate scenarios Figure 1 shows not only the dramatic reductions required, but also that there remains the challenge of reducing sources that are particularly difficult to avoid (these include air and marine transport, and continued emissions from agriculture). Figure 2. In this figure, an emissions reduction pathway that is less challenging and which allows for continued emissions in excess of natural sinks to 2100 and beyond is compensated by a hypothetical technology that removes the excess CO2 that continues to be emitted, and compensates for the overshoot in the budget owing to an inability to adequately constrain emissions.

4. Types of negative emission technologies Afforestation and reforestation. Land management to increase and fix carbon in soils. Bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Enhanced weathering. Direct capture of CO2 from ambient air with CO2 storage (DACCS). Ocean fertilisation to increase CO2.

5. Afforestation and Reforestation Afforestation and reforestation absorb CO2 through plant growth. A positive point is that these are existing ‘technologies’ which can be applied at low cost. A negative point is that to absorb gigatonne quantities of CO2, large (and ever-increasing) areas would be required to absorb CO2 through forest growth (or regrowth). Capacity estimates for the global potential of afforestation and reforestation are 1.1–3.3 GtC /year

6. Land management to increase carbon in soils Modifying agricultural practice offers potential for increasing carbon storage in soils, and is already the aim of the post-COP21 ‘4 per mille ’ initiative which many EU countries have joined It is estimated that increasing Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) could remove up to 0.7 GtC /year from the atmosphere. Recent studies ( Minasny et al. , 2017; EASAC, 2017) suggest that SOC increases would peak after 10–20 years as the SOC levels approached saturation, but if SOC could be increased across the top 1 metre of soil, increasing SOC could have the potential to absorb 2-3 GtC /year.

7. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) This involves either specific energy crops (such as fastgrowing perennial grasses, or short-rotation coppicing) or increased forest biomass which replace fossil fuels as a source of thermal energy, and capturing the CO2 produced and storing it underground. BECCS has already featured explicitly in some IPCC scenarios: for example a median BECCS deployment of around 3.3 GtC /year is included in scenarios consistent with the <2 °C target (430–480 ppm CO2eq).

8. Integration of biomass in heat and power generation sector: (a) 100% biomass firing in a power plant for power and heat generation with close to neutral net emissions; (b) Co-firing biomass and coal for power generation coupled with CCS; negative emissions are achieved depending on the biomass content; (c) 100% biomass firing combined with CCS.

9. Enhanced weathering Enhanced weathering is where geochemical processes that naturally absorb CO2 at slow rates are enhanced by some physical or chemical mechanism. When silicate or carbonate minerals dissolve in rainwater, CO2 is drawn into the solution from the atmosphere. The potential of carbon removal by enhanced weathering (including adding carbonate or silicate minerals such as olivine and basalt to both oceans and soils) has been estimated to be perhaps 1 GtC /year by 2100 (Köhler et al. , 2010). One technique could involve spreading finely ground mineral silicate rocks over large areas of land, as is already done in some cases to reduce the acidity of soils for agriculture (Taylor et al. , 2016).

10. Direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCS) Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage ( DACCS ) is a technology that uses chemical processes to capture and separate carbon dioxide ( CO2 ) directly from ambient air . The CO2 is then separated from the chemicals and captured so that it can be injected into geological reservoirs or used to make long-lasting products.

11. Important DACCS processes include the following Absorption using a strong base solution, typically sodium hydroxide (NaOH). Adsorption using a solid sorbent. Typically, chemically based sorbents such as immobilised amines on poroussupport structures are used. Other concepts. Besides absorption and adsorption, Eisaman et al. (2012) proposed the possibility of extracting CO2 from seawater using membranes , which then reabsorbs CO2 from the atmosphere. Additionally, Agee and Orton (2016) studied the possibility of removing CO2 from air by dry ice deposition using a laboratory prototype, cooling the air to the point where CO2 solidifies and can be separated.

12. The positive aspects include that removal using liquid absorbents (e.g. monoethanolamine ) of (more concentrated) CO2 from natural gas is already in use, and at the demonstration stage for removal of CO2 from power station or industrial flue gases (Luis, 2016). The negative points include the size (and capital cost) of the equipment owing to the very large quantities of air that need to be passed through the contactor, the energy penalty associated with sorbent regeneration, water demands to replace evaporation and potential effects of low CO2 concentrations on nearby vegetation. The starting concentrations for DAC at ambient levels of CO2 in the atmosphere (about 400 ppm: 0.04%) means that costs are inevitably substantially higher than extracting CO2 from more concentrated

13. Ocean fertilisation Planktonic algae and other microscopic plants take up CO2 and convert it to organic matter, some of which sinks as detritus and is sequestered in the deep ocean. It is suggested that enhancement of this process could affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations significantly over several decades to centuries (National Research Council, 2015) by as much as tens to over 100 ppm. The most promising micronutrient examined to date is iron because of the large ratios of carbon to iron in plankton (OIF: ocean iron fertilisation).

14. Carbon capture and storage CCS was duly recognised as an essential component of emission reductions in an IPCC Special Report (IPCC, 2005). Since then the presumption that CCS will be deployed on a large-scale is included in future scenarios that allow the objectives of avoiding dangerous climate change to be met. The latest IPCC assessment report (IPCC, 2014) analyses suggest that limiting atmospheric concentrations to around 450 ppm CO2eq by 2100 is either not possibleor would be much more expensive without deploying CCS. The critically important role of CCS in any strategy to limit temperature rises to 2 °C (and even more so for 1.5 °C) has been more recently emphasised by Ekins et al. (2017).

15. More cost-effective capture technologies are being developed through the following avenues: successful CCS demonstrations to provide design, construction and operational experience (‘learning by doing’ or ‘learning by replication’); research and development on a range of capture technologies (incl. solvent/sorbent development), higher efficiency power generation cycles and industrial processes (‘learning by diversity’); potential second-generation capture technologies .

16. Transport Transport of CO2 by pipelines, road, rail and ships is already standard practice in many locations; for instance, in the USA there are around 7600 kilometres of onshore CO2 pipelines transporting roughly 68 Mtpa of CO2 for enhanced oil recovery purposes

17. Storage 1. Containment–storage sites need to be able to securely store CO2 in subsurface reservoirs with low and manageable risks, including those associated with any potential leakage. 2. Capacity–subsurface reservoirs require the capacity to permanently store the required amounts of CO2. 3. Injectivity–the subsurface reservoirs must be able to accept CO2 at a rate compatible with the capture process. 4. Proximity–reasonable transport distance from capture to storage, avoiding geographically complicated or sensitive terrain and densely populated regions.

18. Pathways to low-carbon development for The PHILIPPINES

19. PER CAPITA GREENHOUSE GAS (GHG) EMISSIONS The Philippines per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (incl. land use) were 1.18 tCO2e/capita.

20. NOT ON TRACK FOR A 1.5°C WORLD The Philippines would need to reduce its emissions to below 132 MtCO2e by 2030 and to below -198 MtCO2e by 2050, to be within a 1.5°C ‘fair-share’ pathway. The NDC target range – from 90 to 102 MtCO2e in 2030 – is 1.5°C ‘fair-share’ compatible; however, owing to its conditional nature, the CAT rates it as as 2°C compatible .

21. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC): Adaptation 1. Strengthen institutions and systems for modelling, scenario-building, monitoring and observation 2. Implement a science-based climate/disaster risk and vulnerability assessment process for programs and projects. 3. Develop climate and disaster-resilient ecosystems 4. Enhance the climate and disaster-resilience of key sectors (agriculture, water and health) 5. Transition to a climate and disaster-resilient social and economic growth 6. R&D on climate change and impacts for improved risk assessment and management.

22. Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector

23. ENERGY OVERVIEW Fossil fuels make up 70% of the Philippines’ energy mix (counting power, heat, transport fuels, etc ). The total primary energy supply has been rising for the past decade, and renewables have not kept pace, with their share of the mix decreasing since 2009. The Philippines needs to meet its growing need for energy with renewables and more rapidly phase out fossil fuels.

24. Energy Mix

25. Solar, Wind, Geothermal, and Biomass Development

26. STATUS OF DECARBONISATION ON POWER SECTOR

27. POLICY ASSESMENT Renewable energy in the power sector The National Renewable Energy Programme (NREP 2011- 2030) provides the policy framework for the implementation of the Renewable Energy Act (2008), including targets to triple renewable energy generation by 2030 to 15,304 MW, in comparison with 2010 generation. Coal phase-out in the power sector 2.5 GW of new coal power capacity is under construction in the Philippines, with a further 9.4 GW in various stages of the planning process. According to the Philippines Energy Plan 2017-2040, coal will still account for 30% of energy supply in 2035 – with an eventual phase-out only in 2062.

28. STATUS OF DECARBONISATION ON TRANSPORT SECTOR

29. POLICY ASSESSMENT Phase out fossil fuel cars Phase out fossil fuel heavy-duty vehicles Modal shift in (ground) transport

30. BUILDING SECTOR The Philippines’ buildings sector – counting heating, cooking and also electricity use – makes up 7% of direct CO2emissions. Per capita, building-related emissions have increased by 51% over the last 5 years. Building emissions can bedecarbonised by improving energy efficiency, and increasing electrification and renewable electricity. POLICY ASSESSMENT - Near zero energy new buildings - Renovation of existing buildings

31. INDUSTRY SECTOR The industry sector had a 13% share of direct CO2 emissions and 17% share in electricity related CO2 emissions in 2018 Carbon intensity of cement production. The Philippines cement industry emissions intensity was 683 kgCO2/tonne product in 2016, higher than the world average of 614 kgCO2/tonne product. Carbon intensity of steel production Steel production and steelmaking are significant GHG emissions sources, and challenging to decarbonise.

32. LAND USE SECTOR To stay within the 1.5°C limit, the Philippines needs to ensurethe land use and forest sector is a net sink of emissions,e.g . by discontinuing the degradation of peatlands and useof moor soils, converting cropland into wetlands, and by creating new forests. POLICY ASSESSMENT Target for net-zero deforestation

33. AGRICULTURE SECTOR The Philippines’ agricultural emissions are mainly from rice cultivation (33.8 MtCO2e) accounting for 62% of agriculture emissions. Emissions are also from digestive processes in animals (12%), livestock manure (13%) and the use of synthetic fertilisers (9%).

34. MITIGATION: TARGETS AND AMBITION

35. AMBITION: 2030 TARGETS NDCs with this rating fall well outside of a country’s fair-share range and are not at allconsistent with holding warming to below 2°C let alone with the Paris Agreement’s stronger 1.5°C limit. If all government NDCs were in this range, warming would exceed 4°C. The Philippines’ conditional NDC target is rated “2°C compatible” and the government is currently revising its NDC with a view to submitting in 2020. The NDC target would be “1.5°C ‘fair-share’ compatible,” if it were unconditional . Current policies are not yet on track to meet the NDC target with one of the key issues being the projected growth of coal, triggering concerns over the potential creation of stranded coal assets worth billions.