Computing Probabilities-1.pptx

Computing the probabilities

1. Statistics & Probability Erick Jesson J. Bucalon ALS-SHS 2022 - 2023

2. Prayer " In accordance with your will, Lord, we begin our learning journey. Grant us knowledge and enthusiasm as we start this class. We pray that you enrich our thoughts and wisdom through daily prayers. Amen."

3. Checking of Attendance & Setting

4. WARM – UP EXERCISE The Boat is Sinking .

5. CLASSROOM NORMS Kindly arranged you chairs properly Do not answer in chorus. Raise hands when you want to answer or ask a question. Always ask permission when going out of the classroom. Observe silence during discussion. Participate in class activities. Minimize voice when in group activities. Listen attentively when there are presentations

6. Objectives: L1: Recall how to calculate the probability of an event occurring . L2: Identify the sample space of an event. L3: Relate the frequency of each possible value to the total number of occurrences L4 : Calculate probabilities corresponding to a given random variable.

7. Introductory Activity Probability Memory Challenge Flipping a fair coin and getting heads (P(heads) = 1 out of 2; ½ or 0.5)

8. Introductory Activity Probability Memory Challenge Rolling a fair six-sided die and getting a 6 (P(3) = 1 out of 6; 1/6 or 0.5)

9. Introductory Activity Probability Memory Challenge Picking a red tambis from a bag containing 4 red tambis and 6 white tambis (P(red) = 4 out of 10; 4/10, 2/5)

10. Introductory Activity Probability Memory Challenge Drawing an ace from a standard deck of playing cards (P(ace) = 4 out of 52; 4/52, 1/13)

11. Introductory Activity Probability Memory Challenge Selecting a random person from a class and them having a red shirt. (P(red shirt) = ________)

12. Roles and Responsibilities Leader One who leads the group Secretary One who writes the answers of the group Reporter One who reports the output to the class Timekeeper One who monitors the time Members Will cooperate and participate in constructing ideas

13. Rubrics for every activity. Criteria 3 2 1 Promptness The group who finished the activity on or before the given time. The group who finished the activity 3 minutes after the given time. The group who finished the activity more than 5 minutes the given time. Cooperation All the members actively participated in performing the activity. 1 member did not actively participate. More than 1 member did not actively participate. Accuracy All the answers are correct. One answer is not correct. More than one answers are not correct.

14. Activity 2: Defective or Not Situation: You are working as a Salesperson in a particular Gadget Store. Suppose your boss requires you to test three cellphones at random. He wants to find out the number of non-defective cellphones . Let D represents the defective and N represents the non-defective cellphone . If we let X be the random variable representing the number of non-defective cellphones , show the values of the random variable X. Complete the table below to show the values of the random variable.

15. Activity 2: Defective or Not Possible Outcomes Value of the Random Variable X (Number of Defective Cellphones)                                                 NNN

16. RUBRICS FOR GROUP ACTIVITY Criteria 3 2 1 Promptness The group who finished the activity on or before the given time. The group who finished the activity 3 minutes after the given time. The group who finished the activity more than 5 minutes the given time. Cooperation All the members actively participated in performing the activity. 1 member did not actively participate. More than 1 member did not actively participate. Accuracy All the answers are correct. One answer is not correct. More than one answers are not correct.

17. GROUP PRESENTATION:

18. ANALYSIS

19. Activity 2: Answers Possible Outcomes Value of the Random Variable X (Number of Defective Cellphones) NNN   DNN 1   NDN 1   NND 1   DDN 2   NDD 2   DND 2   DDD 3

20. Activity 3: What are my chances? Using “Themed Props” strategy you will complete the table below by finding the probability of each Value of the Random Variable X and answer the following questions. Number of Defective Cellphones Probability P(x)       1     2     3     Sum of Probabilities =   1 out of 8 or 1/8 3 out of 8 or 3/8 3 out of 8 or 3/8 1 out of 8 or 1/8 8/8 or 1

21. Activity 3: What are my chances? Additional Questions: 1. What are the factors you considered to determine the probability of each event? 2. How would you relate these factors? 3. What is the sum of the probabilities? Why?

22. Activity 4: Puto Cheese mo diha ! Situation: You have an on-going business on selling kakanin . Among these foods which is a delicious food called puto cheese. You recorded the number of packs of puto cheese that were delivered each day. The number of packs delivered for 10 days is shown below. Day Number of Packs 1 5 2 7 3 20 4 15 5 7 6 15 7 10 8 12 9 15 10 12

23. Day Number of Packs 1 5 2 7 3 20 4 15 5 7 6 15 7 10 8 12 9 15 10 12 No. of Packs Probability of Selling this No. of Packs P(x) 5   7   10   12   15   20  

24. Questions: - Did you determine the probabilities for each number of packs? - Is the sum of the probabilities equal to 1? - What is the probability that 10 or more boxes will be delivered on a day? - What is the probability that the number of boxes delivered will be at least 7 but not more than 20? - What is the probability that at most 10 boxes will be delivered on a particular day? - Find P (X≤ 15) - Find P (10) + P (20)

25. ABSTRACTION/GENERALIZATION Let’s sum it up.

26. Application: X 1 2 3 4 5 P(x) 0.25 0.12 0.28 0.15 0.20 The probabilities that a customer buys 1,2,3, 4, and 5 set of burger in a store has the following probability distribution. 1.What is the probability that a customer will buy at least 2 sets of burgers? 2.What is the probability that a customer will buy at most 3 sets of burgers? 3.Find P(x≤ 3) 4.Find P( 1≤x≤4)

27. Problem: Weather Probability for Ocean Fishing Scenario: A group of fishermen in Brgy . Baybay is planning a fishing trip in a specific area of the open ocean. They want to estimate the probability of encountering rain and strong winds during their trip. Given Information: • Historical data indicates that during the chosen month, there is a 40% or 0.40 chance of rain in the selected area. • The probability of encountering strong winds that could affect fishing is estimated at 25% or 0.25. ?

28. Problem: Weather Probability for Ocean Fishing Questions : What is the probability that the fishermen will experience rain during their fishing trip ? What is the probability that the fishermen will encounter strong winds during their fishing trip? If the fishermen want to avoid both rain and strong winds, what is the probability that they can have a successful fishing trip with favorable weather conditions? 4. If you are one of the fishermen, would go for fishing? Why or Why not?

29. Thank you for your participation.