COP 30 AND THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE ON PLANET EARTH.pdf

Faga1939 7 views 7 slides Oct 28, 2025
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About This Presentation

This article aims to take stock of global actions to combat climate change to date, highlight the serious gaps in strategic actions aimed at building sustainable development, and the challenges to be faced at COP 30 (the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference) in achieving the goals of avoidi...


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COP 30 AND THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE ON PLANET EARTH
Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to take stock of global actions to combat climate change to date,
highlight the serious gaps in strategic actions aimed at building sustainable development,
and the challenges that will be faced at COP 30 (the 30th United Nations Climate Change
Conference) in achieving the goals of avoiding a catastrophic future for planet Earth's
climate. COP 30, to be held in Belém, Pará, Brazil, from November 10 to 21, 2025, will
focus primarily on implementing concrete actions to combat the climate crisis, with an
emphasis on financing projects in developing countries and a just transition to low-carbon
economies.
It is important to note that the COP, the Conference of the Parties, is the decision-making
body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It
annually brings together 198 signatory countries to negotiate and advance global climate
policies. This will be the first time the conference has taken place in Brazil and also the
first time it will be hosted in the Amazon biome. The choice of Belém highlights the
Amazon's fundamental role in maintaining the Earth's climate balance.
The objectives of COP30 will be to discuss the current climate situation, seeking solutions
to combat it, review plans and targets, and establish new commitments. COP30's main
objective is to reinforce the global commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to
curb global warming, with ambitious targets to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, COP30 seeks to strengthen climate finance for
developing countries, promote adaptation to climate change, and encourage innovation in
low-carbon technologies and renewable energy [1].
COP30 has the following specific objectives: 1) Encourage countries to increase their
emissions reduction commitments (NDCs – Nationally Determined Contributions) to
align with the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement; 2) Seek to mobilize financial resources
to support developing countries in their efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change;
3) Help countries prepare for and adapt to the already inevitable impacts of climate
change, such as sea level rise and extreme weather events; 4) Promote the development
and implementation of low-carbon and renewable energy technologies, which are crucial
for the transition to a sustainable economy; 5) Be an important space for dialogue and
cooperation among countries in the search for joint solutions to the problem of climate
change; 6) Address inequalities and the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on
vulnerable populations; 7) Recognize the importance of preserving biodiversity and
natural ecosystems in mitigating and adapting to climate change; and, 8) Promote the use
of nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and ecosystem restoration, for mitigating
and adapting to climate change [1].
The main issues at the center of the debates for COP 30 are the following:
1. Taking stock of the Paris Climate Agreement
COP30 will be an important opportunity to take stock of nations' commitments under the
Paris Climate Agreement (NDCs—Nationally Determined Contributions) and determine
what has already been achieved, what is behind schedule, and what needs to be
strengthened.
2. Increasing the ambition of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (mitigation)

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Increasing the ambition of NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) will be an
important and indispensable goal to keep global warming below +1.5°C. This could
include stronger decarbonization pledges in sectors such as energy, transportation, and
industry. Accelerating greenhouse gas reductions and holding discussions on the energy
transition, carbon markets, and contradictions such as the expansion of oil production.
3. Pursuit of Climate Adaptation and Resilience
Adaptation to climate change has gained more attention recently, as many countries have
been experiencing severe impacts such as hurricanes, droughts, and floods. Developing
national climate change adaptation plans and securing funding for them are priorities. The
goal is to create global indicators (up to 100 criteria) to measure the effectiveness of
actions against floods, droughts, and other impacts already underway.
4. Climate Finance
This is one of the major points of tension. Developing countries expect concrete
commitments from developed countries to finance climate change mitigation and
adaptation, as well as mechanisms for climate change loss and damage. Coordinate
financing sources to reach US$1 trillion/year by 2035 and allocate resources to
mitigation, adaptation, and damage relief in developing countries.
5. Development of renewable energy, technology, innovation, and a just transition
Transforming energy systems by abandoning fossil fuels, increasing renewable energy
sources, and improving energy efficiency are fundamental issues. It will also be essential
to ensure that the energy transition is just, that vulnerable communities are not left behind,
and that jobs, technology, installed capacity, and technology transfer are available.
6. Protection of ecosystems by preserving forests and biodiversity
Preservation of biomes, combating deforestation, biodiversity conservation, and
environmental restoration are also central themes at COP 30. The connection between
climate and biodiversity will be considered, recognizing that biodiversity loss exacerbates
climate impacts and that protecting nature helps mitigate and adapt to climate change. It
is essential to launch the Tropical Forest Finance Facility (TFFF), with a goal of raising
US$100 billion to reward countries that reduce deforestation.
7. Pursuit of climate justice, social inclusion, and participation of
indigenous/traditional communities
Climate justice measures involve equitably distributing the costs and benefits of the
transition from the current economy to a sustainable economy and recognizing territorial
rights, knowledge of traditional peoples, etc. Ensuring that historically marginalized
voices are heard and active in climate change negotiations.
8. Establishing synergy with the Sustainable Development Goals
COP30 seeks to connect the debate on climate change with poverty, food security, health,
water, gender equity, etc. The idea is to prevent isolated climate policies from creating
conflicts with sustainable development. Ensure that the shift to a sustainable economy
does not increase inequalities, includes protection for workers in polluting sectors, the
creation of green jobs, and social justice.
9. Establishing climate governance, transparency, and institutional mechanisms

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Aims to make negotiations more effective, less bureaucratic, with greater transparency,
and define responsibilities in the implementation of actions, making the process more
agile. The aim is to include better monitoring of actions and reliable metrics for
everything from greenhouse gas emissions to climate change adaptation and financing.
10. Compensation for Climate Losses and Damage
This is a critical issue for many vulnerable countries, as it involves compensating or at
least supporting those already suffering unavoidable climate damage.
The balance of global actions to combat climate change reveals that the Paris Climate
Agreement, adopted in December 2015 and in force since November 2016, has not
achieved its intended objectives, given that global warming has been increasing, not
decreasing. The Paris Agreement established a collective commitment to limit the
increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and,
preferably, to 1.5°C.
The progress and failures in implementing the Paris Climate Agreement are described
below:
• Global Governance
Progress achieved: 1) Participation of 198 countries; and 2) Adoption of a mechanism
to review NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) every 5 years.
Failures: 1) Failure to limit global warming to "well below 2°C"; 2) Adoption of
voluntary, non-binding targets by countries; 3) Many national targets are modest, non-
binding, and lack mechanisms to punish non-compliance; 4) Lack of an effective
enforcement mechanism for countries to meet climate goals.
• Mobilization & Direction
Progress achieved: 1) Stimulated national climate plans with NDCs (Nationally
Determined Contributions); 2) Contributed to the advancement of renewable energy
sources; 3) Driven national energy transition policies with renewable energy,
decarbonization, and reforestation targets; 4) Promoted the accelerated expansion of solar
and wind energy, reduced battery costs, the growth of electric mobility, and innovations
in sustainable agriculture, the circular economy, and carbon capture; 5) Created rules for
carbon markets; and, 6) Consolidated the theme of "climate change" in the private and
financial sectors.
Failures: 1) Did not contribute to the end of the fossil fuel era; 2) Continued expansion
of fossil fuel projects; 3) Intensification of climate impacts with the occurrence of extreme
events (droughts, floods, heat waves, fires) that have increased in frequency and intensity,
and with increased losses and damage in vulnerable countries (Africa, Latin America,
Pacific Islands); 4) Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are not
sufficient to prevent an increase in global warming of ~2.5°C to 2.9°C by 2100, above
the 1.5°C target; and, 5) There is a huge gap between pledges and actual actions in
combating climate change.
• Financing
Progress achieved: Target not met in the commitment to allocate US$100 billion/year to
developing countries to combat climate change.

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Failures: 1) Insufficient and unbalanced financing; and, 2) Difficulties in financing
climate adaptation and "loss and damage" in countries affected by climate change.
The Paris Agreement represented a diplomatic success by aligning 198 countries around
a common cause, with a flexible system that allows everyone to participate. However,
this diplomatic success has not translated as quickly into concrete action to combat
climate change. The biggest flaw lies in the slow pace of countries' implementation. The
combined national pledges (NDCs) fall far short of reducing greenhouse gas emissions
by the necessary amount. A 2023 UN report considers that current plans put the world on
track for global warming of between 2.5°C and 2.9°C by the end of the 21st century, a
catastrophic and irreversible scenario.
What can we expect for the future? Now, the challenge is to avoid the catastrophic
scenario that looms large by the end of the 21st century. COP 30 in Brazil will be a crucial
test, focusing precisely on the main Achilles' heel of the climate agreement: financing for
actions to combat climate change. Without the financial resources for developing
countries to make the energy transition and adapt, the 1.5°C target will become
unattainable.
Conclusions
Several conclusions drawn from climate agreements concluded throughout history
support the ineffective management of the targets to be pursued by countries due to the
fact that they are voluntarily established by each nation, which is not obligated to
implement them to ensure that global warming remains well below 2 degrees Celsius,
moving towards 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100, as established in the Paris Agreement. COP
30 needs to secure countries' commitment to implementing the targets they have assumed,
which must be managed by the UN with new management methods that ensure their
compliance [7].
Furthermore, all documents produced at the various COPs since 1995 in Berlin, Germany,
COP1, are silent in failing to present concrete proposals that contribute to the construction
of a sustainable development model for our planet to replace the existing unsustainable
capitalist development model that preys on the environment, and to the construction of a
world of peace that opposes the wars that proliferate throughout the world, given that
wars are also largely responsible for the damage to the planet's environment. COP 30
must secure from countries a commitment to implementing the sustainable development
model and building a world of peace and progress for all humanity [7].
The dominant economic system in the world, capitalism, has contributed to a huge
advance in the average well-being of the inhabitants of planet Earth since the Industrial
Revolution in England in 1760. However, much of this was achieved at the expense of
the disorderly use of natural resources, primarily to generate the necessary energy based
on fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas), which has sustained capitalist economic growth.
Today, nature is already taking its toll, just look at the extreme weather events resulting
from global warming and climate change that are likely to become catastrophic [7].
To change this situation and put an end to the extreme climate events that threaten to
destroy our planet and humanity, it is necessary to promote a profound transformation of
current society. The unsustainability of the current capitalist development model is
evident, given that it has been extremely destructive to living conditions on the planet.
Given this fact, it is imperative to replace the current capitalist mode of production
dominant across the planet with another mode of production that takes into account

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human integration with the environment and nature—that is, the sustainable development
model. This has not been considered in the COPs held by the UN thus far. COP 30 must
propose a sustainable development model to be adopted by all countries worldwide to
reverse the current situation [7].
Another issue not addressed in previous COPs concerns wars, which are also largely
responsible for the damage to the planet's environment and are proliferating throughout
the world. Among the countless dire consequences of wars are their devastating effects
on the environment. The bombing of military targets and civilian populations, such as
those recently seen in the Ukraine War and the Gaza Strip, the intense movement of
military vehicles and troops, the high concentration of combat flights, the missiles
dropped on cities, and the destruction of military and industrial structures during all these
conflicts also cause the emission of heavy metals and other substances that contaminate
soil, water, and air. In addition to environmental contamination, it is also necessary to
consider the long-term modification of natural landscapes and the loss of biodiversity,
whether due to the presence of landmines or chemical agents dispersed in the
environment. The fight against wars must also be considered at COP 30 [7].
COP 30 should also prioritize reducing greenhouse gas emissions by implementing a
sustainable energy system based on clean and renewable energy sources (hydroelectric,
solar, wind, hydrogen, and biomass) to replace the current system based on fossil fuels
(coal, oil, and natural gas) and nuclear energy, and by building smart and sustainable
cities to protect the world's population from the consequences of global warming and
climate change. The implementation of a sustainable energy system based on clean and
renewable energy sources is essential globally because current energy production and
consumption in various sectors of the global economy are responsible for approximately
73% of global greenhouse gas emissions [2][7]. Building smart and sustainable cities is
essential because cities are responsible for more than 75% of global greenhouse gas
emissions [3][7].
Protecting the world's population from the consequences of global warming and climate
change is essential because deaths related to the effects of extreme heat could nearly
quintuple in the coming decades, according to a report by more than 100 experts from 52
research institutions and UN agencies around the world, which monitors the health
impacts of climate change. The conclusions were published in The Lancet [4][7]. We
must prevent the prediction of renowned scientist James Lovelock, who stated that global
warming is irreversible and that it will be a dark time in which more than 6 billion people
will die this century, from coming true [5][7]. In other words, Lovelock asserts that the
human race is doomed to live with the four Horsemen of the Apocalypse—war, famine,
pestilence, and death [6][7]. COP 30 must avoid this catastrophic scenario for humanity.
Finally, it is important to emphasize that all agreements signed to date, including the Paris
Agreement, also fail to address the construction of a system of global governance capable
of ensuring not only the protection of planet Earth's environment, threatened by global
warming and catastrophic climate change, but also the reorganization of the global
economy, which is leading the world into economic depression, and the establishment of
international relations capable of preventing the proliferation of wars, both of which also
jeopardize the global environment. It is necessary to prevent these serious omissions from
being repeated at COP 30 if we are to succeed in avoiding catastrophic changes to planet
Earth's climate in the 21st century [8].
REFERENCES

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1. GOV.BR. COP 30. Available on the website <https://www.gov.br/mdr/cop30>.
2. SBPC. A importância das cidades na crise climática. Available on the website
<https://portal.sbpcnet.org.br/noticias/a-importancia-das-cidades-na-crise-
climatica/>, 2025.
3. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. How to build smart and sustainable cities. Available
on the website <https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-build-smart-sustainable-cities-
fernando-alcoforado/>.
4. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Global warming and its impacts on the health of the
world's population . Available on the website
<https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/global-warming-its-impacts-health-worlds-
population-alcoforado-9xxuf/>.
5. GOODELL, Jeff. Aquecimento global é inevitável e 6 bi morrerão, diz cientista.
Available on the website <https://rollingstone.com.br/artigo/aquecimento-global-e-
inevitavel-e-6-bi-morrerao-diz-cientista/>, 2007.
6. CETESB. Quais os impactos da energia nas mudanças climáticas? Available
on the website <https://cetesb.sp.gov.br/blog/2021/09/02/quais-os-impactos-da-
energia-nas-mudancas-climaticas/>, 2021.
7. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. COP 30 and its challenges to avoid global warming
and catastrophic global climate change. Available on the website
<https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cop-30-its-challenges-avoid-global-warming-
climate-alcoforado-eoc4e/>.
8. ALCOFORADO, Fernando. How to build a world of peace, progress and
happiness for all humanity. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2024.


Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member
of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer
from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development from the
University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering, Economics and Administration) and consultant
in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional planning, urban planning and energy systems,
was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power
distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and
Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is
the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a
Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel,
São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Doctoral thesis. Barcelona
University, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento
(Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos
Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic
and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft &
Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e
Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os
Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia
no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba,
2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua
convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o
mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência
(Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso
e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook
(CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their
existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova,
Chișinău, 2023), A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2023), Como construir um mundo de paz, progresso e felicidade para toda a humanidade (Editora

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CRV, Curitiba, 2024) and How to build a world of peace, progress and happiness for all humanity (Editora
CRV, Curitiba, 2024).
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