delphi technique.pptx

How to properly use the dephi technique during system analysis

1. Alpha Planning – Delphi Technique

2. Delphi Technique The Delphi technique is sometimes called the Estimate talk Estimate(ESE). It is a structured communication strategy or process that was first created as a tool for interactive, methodical forecasting that relies on a panel of experts. The method can also be modified for use in face-to-face interactions, in which case it is known as mini-Delphi. Prediction markets are a different structured forecasting approach, but Delphi has some advantages over them that make it popular for commercial forecasting. It also referred to a methodology that is used to elicit, distill, and determine the opinions of a panel of experts from a given field, seek consensus among the experts and make a prediction or decisions using the expert opinions of the panelist involved in the study. It highlights areas of divergence of opinion.

3. CONTINU……… The foundation of Delphi is the idea that projections (or choices) made by a structured group of people are more reliable than those made by unstructured groupings. Two or more rounds of questionnaires are completed by the experts. A facilitator or change agent presents an anonymous overview of the experts' predictions from the previous round along with the justifications they offered for their conclusions after each round.

4. CONTINU………. As a result, experts are urged to update their prior responses in light of the comments made by other panelists. It is anticipated that as this process continues, the range of responses will narrow and the group will gravitate toward the "correct" response. After a predetermined number of rounds, the establishment of consensus, or the stability of the findings, the process is finally ended, and the outcomes are determined by the mean or median scores of the final rounds. In order to prevent methodological flaws that seriously jeopardize the validity and reliability of the results, special attention must be paid to the formulation of the Delphi theses as well as the definition and selection of the experts.

5. HISTORY Although the name Delphi is derived from the Oracle of Delphi, its oracular connotation and "smacking a little of the occult" connotation bothered the method's creators. The Delphi approach makes the assumption that collective decisions are more reliable than individual decisions. To predict how technology might affect conflict, the Delphi approach was created at the start of the Cold War. General Henry H. Arnold commissioned the writing of a report in 1944 for the U.S. Army Air Corps on potential military applications for emerging technologies.

6. CONTINU……. Different strategies were tried, but in regions where specific scientific laws have not yet been established, the limitations of conventional forecasting techniques, such as theoretical approach, quantitative models, or trend extrapolation, quickly became obvious. Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher created the Delphi method at Project RAND in the 1950s–1960s (1959) to address these drawbacks. Since then, it has been employed together with numerous modifications and reformulations, including the Imen -Delphi technique. In order to determine the likelihood, propensity, and severity of potential enemy assaults, experts were consulted. Other authorities could offer anonymous commentary. Until a consensus was reached, this process was repeated multiple times.

7. Characteristics of Delphi Technique Anonymity of participants Structuring of information flow Regular feedback Role of facilitator

8. Application Forecasting Provides humans with the input required when current or past data is not comprehensive enough to allow accurate model forecasting. Use in policy making Use in educational research Use in patent participation identification Use in health setting

9. Application Use in public health Use in report guiding Reaching consensus

10. Challenges Lengthy process It requires multiple rounds of iteration and feed back Reporting methods There is lack of clear reporting which leads to undermining of the conclusions Limitations of the method Its mixed nature does not allow for studies to follow a standardized scientific approach as it is possible with other study methodologies Experience of panelists Some critics of this technique have a concern on the experience of the different panelists who participate in

11. THANKS FOR LEARNING FROM GROUP II