Fashion forecasting

Fashion forecast and its aspects

1. INDEX
1. Introduction
2. Trend Analysis for different seasons
3. Making trend boards
4. Research Process in Fashion Forecasting
5. Process

2. Introduction
Fashion Forecasting
What Is Fashion Forecasting?
Fashion forecasting are the resources that help in predicting trends in the fashion
industry. The fashion forecaster must bring together his or her own knowledge of
fashion design and history with consumer business information. Design firms and
retail markets use forecasting services to predict trends in colour and fashion.

Fashion forecasting is a global career that focuses on upcoming trends. A fashion
forecaster predicts the colors, fabrics and styles that will be presented on the runway
and in the stores for the upcoming seasons. The concept applies to not one, but all
levels of the fashion industry including haute couture, ready-to-wear, mass market,
and street wear. Trend forecasting is an overall process that focuses on other
industries such as automobiles, medicine, food and beverages, literature, and home
furnishings. Fashion forecasters are responsible for attracting consumers and
helping retail businesses and designers sell their brands. Today, fashion industry
workers rely on the Internet to retrieve information on new looks, hot colors, celebrity
wardrobes, and designer collections.
Long-term forecasting
Long-term forecasting is the process of analyzing and evaluating trends that can be
identified by scanning a variety of sources for information. It is a fashion which lasts
over 2 years. When scanning the market and the consumers, fashion forecasters
must follow demographics of certain areas, both urban and suburban, as well as
examine the impact on retail and its consumers due to the economy, political system,
environment, and culture. Long-term forecasting seeks to identify: major changes in
international and domestic demographics, shifts in the fashion industry along with
market structures, consumer expectations, values, and impulsion to buy, new
developments in technology and science, and shifts in the economic, political, and
cultural alliances between certain countries. There are many specialized marketing
consultants that focus on long-term forecasting and attend trade shows and other

3. events that notify the industry on what is to come. Any changes in demographics
and psychographics that are to affect the consumers needs and which will
influence a company's business and particular [niche market] are determined.
Short-term forecasting
Short-term forecasting focuses on current events both domestically and
internationally as well as pop culture in order to identify possible trends that can be
communicated to the customer through the seasonal color palette, fabric, and
silhouette stories. It gives fashion a modern twist to a classic look that intrigues our
eyes. Some important areas to follow when scanning the environment are: current
events, art, sports, science and technology.

Responsibility for trend forecasting
Each retailers trend forecasting varies and is mainly dependent upon whether the
company is a wholesale brand or private label developer. "Every season, there are
hundreds of designers showing breathtaking collections that the average consumer
will never see. What does matter is who sees them—the in-house designers and
buyers at fast fashion retailers, people who are paying close attention, identifying
and predicting which styles, patterns and cuts will appeal to the average woman."
Larger companies such as Forever 21, have their own trend departments where
they follow the styles, fabrics, and colors for the upcoming seasons. This can also be
referred to as vertical integration. A company with its own trend department has a
better advantage to those who do not because its developers are able to work
together to create a unified look for their sales floor. Each seasonal collection offered
by a product developer is the result of trend research focused on the target market it
has defined for itself.
Product developers may offer anywhere from two to six seasonal collections per
year, depending on the impact of fashion trends in a particular product category and
price point. Women's wear companies are more sensitive to the whims of fashion
and may produce four to six lines a year. Men's wear companies present two to four

4. lines a year, and children's wear firms typically present three to four seasonal
collections. For each season a collection is designed by the product developers and
is based on a specific theme, which is linked to the color and fabric story.
A merchandiser also plays a key role in the direction of upcoming trends. Different
from developers, merchandisers have much more experience in buying and are
knowledgeable in what consumers will be looking for. The designer takes the
particular trends and then determines the styles, silhouette's, and colors for the line
and garments while creating an overall theme for the particular season.
Individual bloggers also contribute to fashion forecasting and influence designers
and product teams alike through blogs such as SHIPSHOW. There are also paid
fashion forecasting services offered by companies like StyleSight and WGSN.

5. Fashion Forecasting

Objectives

After completing this chapter, the student will be able to
• describe the forecasting process
• explain why forecasting is essential to merchandising
• use observational information to develop a forecast plan
Depending on the approach the buyer takes, forecasting may be any combination of
scientific calculations or wizardry and instinct. Forecasting requires that the buyer
determine with as much accuracy as possible what the business’s consumer will
want
in future purchases. Most apparel products are bought by customers who shop and
then purchase. These customers depend on an assortment of available products to
stimulate their interest and entice them to buy. This process necessitates that the
buyer forecast an assortment of products to be housed and promoted to the
customer.
Although housing the product is reduced in nonstore retailing, the buyer or
merchandise manager must still predict what products will appeal to the customer
and provide an attractive display of these products for the shopping pleasure of the
consumer. For many buyers, forecasting is done one year to six months ahead of the
selling season. This traditional six-month schedule is especially true for apparel
merchandisers’ planning. This method corresponds with the traditional two seasons
of fashion: fall and spring. As the fashion cycles have become shorter for many
consumer products, the planning periods have shortened and the forecast is made
for a shorter period. In fact, some buyers have reduced total time in the pipeline and
are buying closer to the selling season.
Most buyers shop the market with some level of forecasting as part of the planning
process. A buyer who is developing a private label program with an offshore
contractor may need at least one year for making plans and completing production of
the new products. For buyers working with vendor-managed products or auto
replenishment products, forecasting may be a simple adjustment of the color or size
assortments. Even these simple adjustments require an accurate approximation of

6. the purchasing requests of consumers. (A few buyers shop the market for
customized orders.
Usually, these orders are placed by a customer who is waiting to receive the
requested merchandise. This merchandise is not part of forecasting.)

Overview of Forecasting
Forecasting is the systematic method of looking for pattern, trend, and change in the
product preferences of consumers. The buyer must predict not only the product
preferences of current customers, but also when changes will occur in these style
preferences.

Two aspects of forecasting are needed: qualitative and quantitative. The
qualitative aspect is often called fashion forecasting or qualitative forecasting.
The buyer must determine the styles, colors, fabrications, and brands that the
consumer will desire. These features are often associated with the design
preferences, lifestyle characteristics, psychographics, and other factors in consumer
choice. This type
of forecasting is needed for products as diverse as a silk scarf and a faux pewter
faucet. Change and excitement in product assortment is desired in many product
lines by many consumers. For many types of merchandise, a retailer’s competitive
positioning is dependent upon the ability to forecast and to assemble an exciting and
enticing assortment of merchandise.

The quantitative aspect of forecasting is often called sales forecasting, determining
order quantity, or quantitative forecasting. This type of forecasting includes
calculating the numbers of items per style, per vendor, and per color. To start the
sales forecast, the buyer must determine an overall sales goal, and the margins and
stock values needed to meet this goal for a specific period.
The buyer decides how many items to buy, with each item classified by style, color,
vendor, and size. Some retailers would consider additional categories such as price
point or fashion level. A categorization with pricing of all items would result in the
assortment plan by the buyer. The total value of the sales forecast in the assortment
plan must match the dollars allocated for sales by the P & L statement and the
amount of planned purchases allocation in the six-month plan.

7. Qualitative forecasting or fashion forecasting is the focus of this chapter. The
process is more difficult when forecasting apparel because often the consumer does
not know what will be purchased before seeing the merchandise. Large stores with
high volumes of merchandise may have very sophisticated computer systems that
use complex mathematical calculations to create forecasts. These forecasts depend
on large databases of information. However, even the most complex software still
requires input from humans and the insight of a successful merchandiser to make an
accurate prediction.
Buyers of fashion goods including apparel, home fashions, and other consumer
products are more concerned with the s tyling, fashion ability, color, and
distinctiveness
of the merchandise than are many buyers of other types of products. Fashion ability
is of primary importance to apparel buyers; however, the fashion features of many
products, including fashion colors for automobiles, paint, and appliances, are
becoming important to other retailers. For example, style features and color are
important in office furniture, home fashions, and computers. Style features are
characteristics that affect the look, shape, or size of a product; can make a product
more distinctive; and may position the product against the competition and more
appropriately for the target consumer.
Some computer companies use style features of non traditional shapes and colors
for their monitors, which make their brands visually distinctive from other brands.
This difference appeals to some computer users. Style features have both negative
and positive impacts on the product. The gain in marketability through increased
style and color variety is a loss in the potential accuracy of the forecast. The more
style features and color variations that are offered by vendors, the more difficult the
job of forecasting becomes for buyers as they attempt to select the exact preference
of a future customer.
Products that change frequently, such as apparel, accessories, and home fashions,
with millions of style and color variants are very difficult to forecast.
Successful forecasting is critical to the success of a retailer who sells fashion related
merchandise. The right merchandise must be available when the consumer
perceives a

8. need for the merchandise. If the merchandise offered by the retailer motivates the
consumer to buy, then a sale is made. If the margins are set to cover expenses and
the price includes dollars to cover the cost of the merchandise, the sale will
contribute to the profit of the business. If the merchandise is not wanted nor needed
by the consumer and does not motivate the consumer to purchase, the merchandise
will continue to remain unsold. No dollars contribute to the profit, and, within a short
time, the retailer will be without cash to buy new merchandise or to pay bills. Sale of
the merchandise is vital to the existence of the business. Cash flow is important to
maintain fresh stock and to pay employees. In this way, fashion forecasting, because
of its impact on the financial activities of the business, is critical to the success of the
business.

Process of Fashion Forecasting

Fashion forecasting can be as simple as placing a repeat order for a group of
merchandise items or it can be as complex as a six-month process made by a team
of dedicated professional marketers. For most buyers, fashion forecasting involves
the gathering of information in a myriad of ways from a plethora of sources. Most
buyers forecast style, color, and fabrication for merchandise classifications. When
the information is gathered, a series of choice sets result. Choice sets are the
merchandise alternatives available to the buyer, from which the buyer must select
the items for the store. In today’s business world, more buyers suffer from too much
information or the wrong information than the number of buyers that suffer from not
enough information.

The fashion forecasting process varies for every buyer and for every business.
Forecasting various products also differs, but some commonalities in the process
exist for all buyers.
The fashion forecasting process includes the basic steps of
(a) understanding the vision of the business and profile of target customers
(b) collecting information about available merchandise
(c) preparing information,
(d) determining trends
(e) choosing merchandise appropriate for the business and target customers.

9. Most buyers forecast both style and color for merchandise. This dual forecasting
process may proceed simultaneously for both style and color, or the buyer may keep
two sets of records—one for style and one for color.

10. Understanding the Vision of the Business
and the Profile of Target Customers

This basic information is the foundation for all business activities;however, details
about the retailer’s business plan and the target customer are needed to direct the
fashion forecast. Order processes, payment plans, computer capacities,
and distribution methods are all business systems that can affect the selection
of the merchandise and direct the forecast. For example, selection of style is
constrained by the processes of the retailer’s business systems. These constraints
include limits on merchandise quantities from vendors, time requirements for
processing orders, and preselection of vendors by management. Some small
retailers may find that they are restricted from ordering merchandise because
vendors have minimum requirements for order volume that exceeds the retailer’s
budget.
When forecasting merchandise to purchase for a retail business, the buyer must
know the product specific criteria both for the business and for the target customer.
For example, the business may have policies about color (e.g., everything must be
white), sizes (e.g., everything must be a size 5, 7, or 9), or price point (e.g.,
everything must sell for $6.00). These policies will limit or control the forecast.

Product specific criteria for the target customer include quality, color, fashion level,
style, distinctiveness, brand name, and price. Brand becomes a qualitative criterion
because of the image associated with branding and the fashion levels imagined by
the consumer when considering brands. Many aesthetic aspects of the product are
part of the qualitative features. Fashion criteria are often elusive features and
interpreted differently by every person. This multi-interpretational characteristic
further increases the difficulty of forecasting. In addition, the preference of the
consumer can change depending on situational usage, prior performance of the
product, and other extrinsic criteria. Most buyers will have target consumer
information as part of the strategic planning process. Although the information
should be up-dated regularly, the buyer will not necessarily collect additional
consumer information simultaneously with product style and color information.

Collecting Information

11. Style and color information searches start with understanding the target market and
the sales data from previous styles. When this consumer and business information is
clarified, the buyer begins the search for new product information. To collect product
information, the buyer completes a variety of activities. New style information comes
from television, high price point and more fashion forward markets, street
observations, vendors, market trips, fashion shows, and observation of competitors.
Street observations are examples of fashion counts and can provide information
about trend, which are used to observe a broad range of customers and determine
current popular styles. The results of a fashion count are a tally of all observed
wearing, carrying, or using products within a merchandise classification.

Observations are recorded according to sub classifications within the major
classification. Most buyers who are forecasting gather information from more than
one source. These activities include (a) reviewing the general media (i.e., reading
newspapers, watching television, and
using other current events sources), (b) scanning fashion publications and literature
from trade organizations, (c) using a fashion forecasting service, (d) attending trade
shows and markets, (e) reviewing store information, (f ) reviewing literature and
information from vendors, (g) attending major social or sports events, (h) traveling to
other areas within the United States and to other areas in the world, and (i)
observing and pin pointing trends in other product categories that coordinate with or
influence the product classifications being forecasted. Many of these activities are
daily habits among most buyers. Good buyers learn to constantly scan the
environment for information to help with their forecasts and to store that information
in readily accessible formats.

Reviewing the General Media

To understand the future, the buyer must be continuously aware of major world
events and minor local events. The inauguration of a new president or the installation
of a new city mayor may have an impact on fashion. When the wife of a new
president wears a hat to the national inauguration, the world waits and wonders if
this will affect the millinery desires of future consumers. A new wallpaper pattern or

12. lamp used on the set of the local television news broadcast could have a fashion
influence on a local market. Many people see these television personalities and their
environments every night and use them as role models for their own selection of
products. When observing people who are in the media, the buyer should be
scanning for new ideas, the continuation of a previous best seller, or a change in
appearance. The buyer may want to focus on people who are considered leaders by
the target customer so that the buyer is documenting new ideas and not following the
current trends. For this reason, most consumer magazines would not be a good
source of information; if the image is already in the average consumer magazine,
then it is too late to incorporate it into a new forecast. Buyers must think about future
seasons when making forecasts.

With the increase in Internet services, collecting and sorting information from
the news has become easier for anyone with the basic Internet hookups. Many
Internet providers allow the user to customize the user profile to filter and sort
information from a myriad of news sources. By putting key words into the profile, a
buyer can scan the update and learn about world and local events in a few minutes.
This service is similar to previous services that provided news clippings to its
customers.

Although the Internet is a time saver, the buyer should be aware that an idea for
a fashion trend can come from anywhere in this fast-paced, news-laden world and
should not limit the scan to preset profiles. Inspiration and insight can come from the
simple act of reading the newspaper or watching the local weather. Fashion
information is everywhere.

Scanning Fashion Publications

Reading and reviewing fashion information in the trade publications should be daily
habits for the buyer of any fashion goods. For apparel merchandise, the most
fundamental publication in this scan is Women’s Wear Daily. The Daily New Record
is vital for buyers who deal with men’s wear. These newspapers are the equivalent of
the Wall Street Journal for the fashion apparel business. Numerous other
publications for more specific segments of the fashion industry are also important.

13. For example, Earnshaws is important reading for buyers in the children’s wear
market. Footwear News is a must read for those who buy shoes. Home Furnishings
Today covers the current activities in the home furnishings area, which includes
information about small accessories and other fashion goods for the home. The gift
market, plumbing supplies, and other products also have dedicated trade journals.
In addition to these specific product sources, trade organizations promoting fiber and
other industry products and services offer fashion presentations, publications, and
services to the retail buyer. For example, some fiber associations offer a seasonal or
twice yearly trend forecast that provides color, silhouette, and fabric predictions for
the apparel and home furnishings industries. Some fiber organizations publish
fashion bulletins, reports, and market reviews. Fabric libraries and other research
materials may be available from these trade organizations.

Many of these trade publications and information sources about the industry are
now available over the Internet. Some of the sources have free access for limited
versions of the publications, but require payment for more extensive versions. Other
sources are available only on a payment basis. Additional new sources of trade
information are being added at a rapid rate to the Internet. A buyer should scan the
Internet to determine a selection of favorite Web sites for trade information. The
advantage of this electronic format is the speed of access. The buyer can have
today’s news today instead of waiting for the newspaper to arrive in the mail. Another
advantage is the ability of the provider to customize the information and for the
reader to customize the receipt of the information.
For example, a buyer could establish a user profile that highlighted all available
information about the color red and the Scottish weave or any other target customer
preference.

A disadvantage of the Internet continues to be the lack of consistency in color
representation. Other complaints about Internet scanning are the inability of a buyer
to touch the fabrics and feel the textures and the lack of dependability of the source.
Buyers should be aware that any person (young, old, experienced, or inexperienced)
could develop a Web site without any training or knowledge of the industry.

Using a Fashion Forecasting Service

14. Fashion forecasting services scan the fashion world for the buyer. These services,
for a fee, provide the buyer with information about new colors, styles, and other
features. Services include identification of trends and information tailored to a target
market. Some services provide only color information, others specialize in fabrics,
and still others provide style information with sketches, photographs, or computer-
generated images.

Other forecasting services provide a comprehensive review of fashion information.
Specific color forecasting services may also be used. The oldest color association
in the United States is the Color Association of the United States (CAUS). Other
color services include The Color Box, and The Color Marketing Group, which is
composed of personnel from a variety of industry segments with diverse product
classifications.
Color services may offer pictures of the color; fiber, fabric, or other raw materials
samples in the color; and examples of merchandise using the color. Color services
also name the color and may suggest color trends. Use of color samples is
dependent on the quality of the color reproduction, and names of colors may create
images that are not accurate. Exact reproduction of colors continues to be a
challenge for all consumer product industries. Color analysis from previous sales
data may not be available from sales and inventory systems and is something that a
buyer should request if new computer systems are being installed.

The fashion forecasting service can provide the buyer with an assortment of
sketches, color swatches, videos, photographs, and other visual aids that represent
new ideas and repeating images. The presentations are often professionally
developed and collected into booklets or boxes of materials. These services are now
available on the Web with a password access for the buyer. For forecasts sent by
mail or courier service to the buyer, fabric swatches, actual photographs, or yarn
buttons may be included in the presentations. Prototypes or samples in full size or
miniature may be available for some product classifications.

Forecasts from fashion forecasting services are often on a twice-annual basis or
may be according to a preset number of seasons. The period of coverage varies with

15. the service and may be a fixed time and the same for all customers, or changed to
accommodate the individual buyer. Buyers should choose a service that will have
forecasts timed to coincide with the buying cycle for their business. For buyers with
traditional buying cycles of four or five seasons, many services may readily
accommodate their needs. Buyers with more frequent buying times and shorter
planning cycles may need to request specialized services.

A fashion forecasting service provides a number of advantages to a buyer. Time
saving is one of the most obvious advantages. The staff from the service spends
their time scanning the news media, the trade papers, and other sources. The staff
also culls the information, sorts and organizes the information, and prepares the
forecast from their research. Using a forecasting service also has disadvantages.
The service may have its own “style” or way of viewing the future. This view is only
useful to the buyer if the view coincides with the vision of the buyer’s business and
would be acceptable for the buyer’s target customer. The information from a service
can become repetitive and single focused, which may limit the newness of the
forecast and may contribute to stale merchandise assortments for a buyer. The
buyer may find that time is better spent doing personal research rather than reading
the information from the services.

Forecasting services charge for their work. Fees for forecasting services range
from a few hundred dollars to thousands of dollars depending on the assortment of
services that are purchased. The cost of the service may be prohibitive for many
buyers, and depending on the extensiveness of the information search needed by
the buyer, the fee may not be justified. (Some products are more stable and have
less change. This buyer may find that, with a minimum of record review, an accurate
forecast may be made without outside information.)



Attending Fashion Shows and Markets
Attending fashion or trade shows appears to be a highlight of any fashion career.
The image of jetting to a foreign country or a major domestic city to view the latest
creations by famous fashion designers is an image that many people have about

16. buyers. This image is only partially correct. Attendance at a major international
fashion show is hard work for a buyer. The buyer must prepare for the show—
reviewing business information, determining what shows will be seen, and pre-
evaluating the designers whose shows will be visited. While at the markets, the
buyer will want to see as many shows or product presentations as possible, which
may require sprinting on foot from one tent or showroom to the next. Seating will be
crowded, food will be limited and expensive, and accommodations will be
overbooked. The buyer must work very hard to take notes and sketches and to
gather as much information as possible in an impossibly short time. Yet, attending a
major fashion or trade show is the best way to see the newest products and to sense
the heartbeat of the fashion industry.

For apparel, major fashion shows take place twice a year in Paris. Other
international shows for apparel are held in Milan and New York City. These shows
are particularly important for buyers of women’s fashions. Other shows with more
regional coverage are held in major cities in the United States such as Atlanta,
Chicago, Dallas, Los Angles, and Miami. The major fashion show for men’s wear,
MAGIC, is held twice a year in Las Vegas. Buyers who are primarily interested in
children’s wear, sportswear, accessories, or gifts may find that certain regional
shows have more offerings for their clients than some of the major shows. Observing
the shows for new ideas is not the same as attending the show for buying. When the
buyer goes to market, the forecast should already be complete. When a buyer
attends a major international show, but shops in more regional markets, the show
might be viewed for ideas for next season. While at the market, buyers may also
attend shows to buy a select group of merchandise for a few new trend concepts to
complete the forecast and buying orders that have already been written. Shows for
other products are centered in other cities at a variety of intervals.

The Internet has affected the buyer’s attendance at fashion and trade shows as
well as other areas of forecasting. Some designers of new products are doing
simulcasts of their shows and making the live show available on the Internet as well
as on the runway or in a series of kiosks. For a fee, a buyer can log on and view one
of these live Web shows. Some product designers also have clips or portions of the

17. show available for later viewing, again for a fee. Some e-commerce businesses
provide the designers

Reviewing Store Information

Store information can be collected from a variety of sources: store employees, want
slips, style outs, and POS data. Gathering opinions from store employees is an
important aspect of reviewing store information, but must be done with extreme care.
Sales associates will have information that is directly sourced from customers, but
often only a select few customers will voice opinions about current merchandise and
even fewer customers express opinions about future wants in merchandise. Some
businesses use a formal system of collecting information from consumers. This
system involves the use of slips of paper called want slips. Blank want slips are kept
at the cash registers and are completed by sales associates. When a sales
associate rings merchandise for a customer, the associate should ask if the
customer found everything and if the customer was looking for anything that was not
found. This activity at the cash register can promote additional sales and will identify
potential new merchandise for the business.
The collection of want slips can be beneficial for goodwill between the business
and the customer. If the salesperson inquires about unmet wants and attends to
them, the customer will feel that the sales associate is truly interested in the
customer’s needs and wants. The customer will feel that the business is really trying
to achieve customer satisfaction. Want slips can also alert a buyer to merchandise
that is out of stock and could be reordered if time permits a reorder. With some
electronic cash registers, the information that would belong on a want slip can be
entered directly at the cash register into an appropriate database. If paper want slips
are used, the buyer will need to develop a routine for collecting and saving the want
slips to ensure that no slips are lost. Buyers should acknowledge that this is not a
statistically random method of determining consumer wants and should be used with
caution because of biases that are inherent in this type of data collection method;
however, in conjunction with other information collection methods, sales associates’
information can be very insightful for the buyer.

Style outs examine current merchandise to determine trends, slow-selling items,

18. and items that are hard to keep because they are so popular. Style outs are another
method of collecting data from the store. This data collection method is a good
activity for the buyer to complete while in a store in a merchandise department where
sales associates or other company personnel can be involved. During a style out, the
buyer will pull from the shelves and racks all merchandise from a group, category, or
vendor that remains in stock. The buyer uses the purchase orders as a comparison
of what was originally in the department and can observe the remaining
merchandise. By noting what has been sold and what remains in the store, the buyer
can determine visually what style features are selling and what features characterize
the merchandise that continue to remain in the store. This data collection method is
not a review of what items (e.g., skirt, blouse, or shower curtain) were sold, but a
review of the style features (e.g., scoop neck, pink stripes, or clear plastic fabric) that
were chosen by the customer. To do a style out, the buyer must have detailed
knowledge of the merchandise that was purchased for the business. The purchases
that are now being sold to consumers may have been made six to eight months
earlier and may have included hundreds or thousands of units; therefore, the buyer
must have a good memory for details and keep good notes in order to do an
effective style out.

Reviewing Literature and Information from Vendors
For the buyer, many vendors will provide information and opinions about new
products and fashion trends. Vendors who are apparel manufacturers have been
working to develop the new product for several months prior to presenting the
merchandise to the buyer. The vendor will have been to fabric tradeshows and may
have marketing and product development staff in the business. Most vendors are
very knowledgeable about their merchandise and about market activities; however,
the buyer should be wary of this source and remember that the vendor’s primary
goal is to sell the merchandise. On the other hand, trustworthy relationships between
buyers and vendors are extremely
valuable, and a retailer–vendor partnership that is a long-term relationship is built on
more than a profit motive. A vendor who wishes to have a long-term relationship with
the retailer will be interested in the satisfaction of the retailer and the retailer’s
customer and will be judicious with advice and interested in the sell-through of the
merchandise.

19. For buyers who are repeat customers, vendors can preselect merchandise that they
think would satisfy the buyer’s customers. The vendor becomes another scanning
device for the buyer. Some vendors use their own databases and computer software
to generate purchase orders for buyers that are completed prior to the buyer ever
seeing any stock. These vendors will forecast the merchandise assortment with size,
color, and quantities and may even place the stock in the business’s distribution
centers and floor space. The vendor may also warehouse the stock for the retailer. In
a reverse direction of sharing for the partnership, vendors may consult the retailers in
product forecasting. In order to obtain input from their major retail accounts, many
manufacturers or vendors present their seasonal lines far in advance of the
traditional vendor selling season to their best partners.

This method, called prelining, not only helps the vendor solidify the seasonal
offerings, but also provides advanced trend insight for the buyer. This level of
partnership takes a long-time investment to develop and is very beneficial to both
buyer and vendor, but is rare. To display or advertise new merchandise, the vendor
may provide catalogs, videotapes, or password access to Web sites. With the
flexibility and graphics capabilities of computers, the vendor may even use
photographs and sketches to custom tailor a Web site for a buyer. The buyer can
add these graphic sources to the collection of information from the general scanning
activity, information gathered from a forecasting service, business information, and
other sources of information. Buyers review these materials to gather ideas, find new
sources of merchandise, and identify specific products to order.

Attending Major Social and Sports Events

By attending major social happenings and sports events, the buyer can observe
products that are being worn, carried, or used by consumers in all fashion levels of
the product life cycle. In a large group, fashion forward consumers and fashion
followers will be represented.
The buyer will also see consumers who are creating their own new fashion look.
For the retailer who has limited access to other new information, these events are
useful in providing insight into current activities of consumers. Fashion forward

20. trends can be pinpointed and purchased for immediate delivery, or the trends that
are observed can be adapted to fit the merchandise assortment of the individual
retailer. Identifying new merchandise or new combinations of items will assist the
retailer .
Travelling to Other Areas within the United States or to Other Areas of the
World
Many large retail companies and some small retail businesses arrange for their
fashion buyers to attend worldwide events in various areas of the world, or to power
shop in major foreign retail markets. Additionally, many astute buyers plan vacations
or travel to foreign countries on their own to observe other cultures and to gain
insight into their potential influence on the apparel, home furnishings, home
appliances, automobile, and other product trends in their home country.

Observing and Pinpointing Trends in Other Product Categories

Many times trends develop in one product category that will affect the design,
color, or fabrication of another product category. Traditionally, intimate apparel
garments are developed to support the sale of ready-to-wear garments; or hosiery
and shoes are designed to coordinate with skirt lengths, pant styles, or particular
trendy fabrications. A new color that becomes popular in apparel may influence the
adoption of that color in home furnishings, gift items, and automobiles. The
exchange of fashion ideas across products is often swift and multidirectional. When
classifications are produced primarily in one country, that country can become a
fashion leader in the classification, which means that those fashion forward items
may trigger new fashion trends and earlier customer acceptance and demand for
another product category in a specific style.

Preparing Information
The accuracy of information fed into the forecasting process has a direct effect on
the accuracy of the forecast. Improved information about possible trends, style
changes, and new vendors will assist the buyer in making a well-targeted forecast.
Recording, storing, and organizing this information are as important as collecting
the information. Some buyers keep files for cataloging information relative to fashion
forecasting. Sales history is the most common file and often includes pictures.

21. Some buyers keep a journal to record ideas, images, sketches, or other scraps of
information.
A bound book with blank pages can be used as a journal because the
blank pages are more appropriate for sketches. Some buyers call this journal their
report book. Other buyers prefer to keep a three-ring binder-style notebook and use
plain pages, lined pages, and plastic sleeve pages. The plastic sleeves are a great
way to keep samples of yarns, fabrics and other raw materials, swipes, and pictures
and computer graphics.

Swipes include any pictures that can convey a color, a style, or other features that
may be important to the forecast.
Standard file cabinets and file folders may be used to store notes, photographs,
sketches, and other sources of information. Some companies keep walls of
corkboard in the buyer’s offices or merchandising offices to keep style pictures and
swipes available in a more visible way. These boards are particularly useful for
moving and reconnecting information to develop themes and to identify trends.

Concept boards that contain swipes, words, photographs, and other images may be
developed to share ideas with a team or other members of the retail staff. These
boards are often foam core boards of varying size (e.g., by by ). (Size
may be dictated by company policy, the preference of the buyer, or the size of one’s
portfolio or office table.)
Keeping good notes about the source of fabrics, colors, or photographs is as
important as keeping the visual evidence. The buyer would be very disappointed to
choose a fabric sample as the central item in a season’s purchases and discover
that no one knows the source of the fabric and that it is untraceable. File labels with
the name of the company, dates, addresses, and other pertinent information should
always be affixed to samples. Note cards or other forms of labeling could be slipped
in the plastic sleeve where a sample is kept, but this method allows the sample and
the label to be separated.

(When a buying team has many samples spread over a conference table, the labels
and samples could easily become mixed.) A coding system could be used for
vendors that are frequently used and that have current information in other files.

22. The use of a computer for data keeping is an option that may sound attractive,
but could be very time consuming. Samples of all varieties could be scanned and
collected into computer files. Scanning requires considerable time and the quality of
the texture and color of the sample may be altered in the process. For a buyer who
wishes to share information with a team member such as a department manager
who is geographically distant, computer files might be a solution because of the time
and expense saved in shipping the items. Computer files can also become a backup
for the actual items. Computer-scanned images could be used as archival storage
for information from previous seasons. If the information is in electronic format, some
software solutions may be used to help sort and select merchandise. Use of
electronically shared information can reduce the time between forecasting and sales.
Quick Response systems that gather consumer data and share this data with
manufacturers can reduce planning time and increase forecasting accuracy.

Determining Trends

The buyer must determine an overall trend for the coming planning period as well as
specific items of merchandise. To achieve this balance, some companies keep two
separate schedules for forecasting: long term and short term. Long-term forecasts
provide an overall view of the marketplace as well as the changes in merchandise
styles and cover a period of six months or longer. For a long-term forecast, general
trends are noted and merchandise that is recognized as very popular or
continuations from previous seasons are included.
Short-term forecasts are for shorter time periods than long-term forecasts; for
example, less than six months. They include specific information
about style and color and are used to develop the assortment plan.
Long-term forecasts provide direction for the buying (i.e., identification of trends),
but the short term forecast identifies specific merchandise items and also allows for
changes in the specific selections to be made in response to early purchases. If the
company is small and can place small orders or if the company is large, but has an
established partnership with a manufacturer with flexible production, short-term
forecasts are more workable with the vendors than long-term forecasts.

A trend may be a revision of a current trend or a change from the previous trend.

23. A trend is the general increase in acceptance of a style or certain style features. The
trend may be as specific as one item of merchandise, for example, the tank top.
More often, the trend is a style feature or a general look, which can include color,
fabric, shape, or parts of the item (i.e., collar, closures, edging, or trim). When the
trend is identified, merchandise can be evaluated relative to this trend and selection
of actual items can be made. Identifying a trend may be as simple as counting the
number of swipes in a file or as complicated as calculating a mathematical formula.
Several methods of identifying trends may be used by buyers. A good buyer will
always have a personal opinion or intuition about a trend as well as documentation
for the trend. Collecting information is important to identifying the trend. Basic to an
accurate forecast is adequate and accurate information. To identify possible trends
as needed to complete the forecast the buyer will review the swipes, brochures,
notes, and other documentation that have been collected during the planning period.
Some buyers, especially someone who buys for a small business, will use very
simple and rather qualitative analysis when identifying trends. The buyer for a small
business may have limited time or resources to do extensive quantitative analysis;
however, with small but powerful computers anyone can do some sophisticated
quantitative data analysis.

Qualitative trend analysis consists of reviewing the data collected during a
period. The data will consist of the buyer’s notes and all graphic information that has
been collected about new merchandise and new media events. The buyer will also
need the information about previous styles and trends that were selling well for the
business. Some buyers use corkboards in their offices or file folders or simple stacks
on a conference table to sort the data pieces and identify style features. The buyer is
looking for an increased occurrence of something new. (In a recent season, the
appearance of a lilac bridesmaid’s dress in a popular movie signaled the start of a
trend for pastel colors in the bridal wear market.) The buyer must be very open to
new ideas, new sources, new information, and subtle changes in the world. A buyer
can identify something new because of an in-depth knowledge of merchandise in
previous seasons. An understanding of fashion theory, including the cyclical nature
of fashion and the evolution of change, is also an important tool for the buyer. With
qualitative trend analysis, the buyer depends on visual analysis of the collected data
and on the buyer’s own sense of what is new, exciting, or different.

24. Quantitative trend analysis depends on the mathematical analysis of data. To
perform this type of analysis, the buyer or someone for the buyer would quantify the
graphic information that has been collected. For example, the exact shades and
hues of color in any swipes, photographs, or videos would be quantified. The number
of times that these exact colors were viewed would also be noted. In addition, the
person encoding the data may also quantify the situation in which the color was
noted or the adjacent colors and style features that were seen. Style features and
actual items of merchandise, including shapes and dimensions of the item, could be
catalogued in this process. Some quantitative trend analyses include additional
information about general economy, political events, and other world issues. The
quantitative analysis
process is time consuming and is best done by buyers who have many financial
resources at their disposal. In addition, a decision about the investment of time and
money versus the return in accuracy of forecast would need to be conducted before
beginning a quantitative trend analysis.

The result of trend analysis is that the buyer has a guide for selecting merchandise.
For example, the buyer would state that the trend for the next six months is for
dark, jewel-tone colors and heavy, rough fabrics. Once the trend is identified, the
buyer will need to be certain that this trend will appeal to and be purchased by the
retailer’s customers. For example, the buyer identifies that the trend is for dark rich
colors. The buyer knows from history of the business that dark colors do not sell
through.
The buyer must decide whether the trend is strong enough that the customer
will change previous buying habits and accept the new trend or the trend must
be adjusted to fit the customer. Perhaps the buyer will purchase the dark colors only
for a limited amount of items, or the buyer will purchase only dark accessories.
Knowledge of the business and the target consumer is very important in focusing
the trend to fit the business. A decision at this point in the forecast could greatly
affect the salebility of the retailer’s merchandise and the future for the buyer. If a
buyer discards a trend because the trend seems too extreme for the target consumer
and the buyer is incorrect, the target consumer will be shopping the retailer’s stores,
catalogs, or Web sites and not see the desired new merchandise. If the desire for the

25. new merchandise is strong, the customer will seek other sources for the
merchandise. Also, if the buyer selects the trend and the target consumer chooses
not to follow this trend, the retailer will hold excess merchandise that is not sold and
again the customer who visits the retail sites will view merchandise that is not
appealing to them. A customer who leaves because the merchandise is not
appealing may shop elsewhere, be satisfied at the new location, and never return to
the first location. For these reasons, forecasting the right merchandise is critical to
the retailer’s success.

Selecting Merchandise

Final merchandise selection is a major part of forecasting. Decisions for this step
involve a number of activities and include style, color, fabrication, and brand.
Activities may vary with the size of the company, the number of stores for which the
forecast is made, and the budget that is allocated for the forecasting process. Small
companies may have limited budget for travel, but will have more flexibility in the
placement of small orders that are closer to the market. Preliminary to the final
selection of merchandise, the following activities may occur: (a) buying samples from
Europe or better markets and gauging colleagues and salespersons response and
(b) buying a small amount of the merchandise and putting it in the store for a test
run.

Test runs are small amounts of merchandise that are put into test markets to test
or evaluate the salebility of the merchandise. Some large, multistore retailers who
develop their own merchandise actually place test runs or floorsets of the newly
developed merchandise in selected stores located in specific geographic regions.
These retailers use this fastrack method to identify best-selling styles, colors, and
fabrications for specific consumers in specific geographic areas. In addition, these
retailers utilize the information from the sale of these floorsets to develop new
products for customers in other regions, especially when the weather differential
between the geographic regions allows for a later entry of seasonal merchandise.
For example, a new style of snow shovel can be pretested or placed into stores in a
very northern region and later introduced into a mid-climate region that has a later
snowfall. Using fastrack methods of merchandise entry, the retailer has a pulse on

26. the items that will be accepted by most consumers before the peak selling season
has arrived.

The test run must be completed early in or prior to the main opening of a season
so that additional merchandise can be ordered if the test run proves that the
merchandise is a strong-selling item. A test market can be a single store in a multi-
store company, in catalogs for selected customers for retailers with catalogs, or on a
Web site. For the retailer, an advantage to the virtual forms of selling (i.e., catalog or
Web site) is the ability to show the items to the customer without having to stock
them.
The merchandise selection aspect of forecasting is a series of choice sets for the
buyer. A choice set contains alternative selections of merchandise. The choice set
may be a set of individual items (e.g., six different blouses) or a set of multiple items
(e.g., three sets of lamps, which represent all the lamps shown by three different
vendors).

The buyer must select which blouses or which dresses are to be purchased for the
store. Although most buyers rarely think about how they decide on merchandise,
decision rules are present when the buyer makes these choices. Most buyers use
the conjunctive rule when buying apparel. The conjunctive rule is used by people
as a means of eliminating a number of alternatives quickly. The person making the
decision must set a minimum standard for each attribute (e.g., color or style feature)
that is considered important. The product is then compared to the standards. If a
product fails to match or exceed any one of the many standards set by the decision
maker, the product is dropped from further consideration. The standard is set by the
buyer’s judgment, previous experience, and trend analysis. Using this information,
the buyer must understand in specific detail the preferences of the target consumer
and be able to develop a standard from those known preferences.
When selecting merchandise, the buyer must constantly remember that a taste
gap may exist between the vendors, other fashion information sources, and the
target consumers. The gap may be due to geographic, age, or economic differences.
Previous information about style trends and actual merchandise sold can assist the
buyer in determining a potential taste gap. Again, the buyer must depend on

27. qualitative measures, previous information, and an understanding of the consumer to
generate a well-targeted forecast, for success in forecasting.

The final forecast must be coordinated with all merchandise categories and with
the strategic plans for the company. Final decisions about style and color are based
on the factors of observation of samples, personal experience and opinion, opinions
of other personnel in the company, price of the merchandise, and brand or vendor
reputation.
Small companies may actually have the opportunity to sample customers and
use their opinions to influence the forecast. Larger companies may depend on
generalized themes, vendor recommendations, and samples. Personnel within the
company who may be polled include sales associates, department and store
managers, associate or assistant buyers, and other colleagues. The final decision
usually remains the task of the buyer. A successful forecast is usually rewarded by
bonuses for the buyer. On the other hand, an unsuccessful forecast and unsold
merchandise result in the loss of sales for the company and the potential loss of job
for the buyer.

Summary
Fashion forecasting is both the thrill and the curse of fashion merchandising. In an
air of excitement, buyers may conduct a number of activities such as shop the
markets, interview customers, and travel to see foreign fashion shows in the
development of a forecast. However, the forecast process also contains the
collection and processing of volumes of information, critical and careful decision
making, and large amounts of paperwork. The forecast is the beginning of the
merchandise assortment and as such determines the merchandise that will enter the
store. Behind this forecast is careful understanding of store image and target
customer.

Terminology

Choice sets
Concept boards
Conjunctive rule

28. Fashion counts
Fashion forecasting
Fashion forecasting process
Fashion forecasting services
Fastrack
Floorsets
Long-term forecasts
Prelining
Pretested
Product specific criteria
Qualitative aspect
Qualitative forecasting
Quantitative aspect
Quantitative forecasting
Short-term forecasts
Style features
Style outs
Swipes
Taste gap
Test runs
Trade publications
Trend
Want slips

29. Chapter 2

FASHION RESEARCH METHODS

CONTENTS:
Fashion Research Overview
Trade Shows
Forecasting
Publications
Catwalk Shows
Directional Shopping Trips
Cultural Events
Historical Sources
Media/Music
Internet

FASHION RESEARCH METHODS
Fashion Research Overview
“An insufficient flow of information leads to inadequately designed products.”
(Formosa 1991) The processes involved in designing new ranges and collections
normally begins with researching and gathering information. However, fashion
designers have limited training in research, and rarely conduct their own research
studies, resulting in intuitive and subjective judgements. Contributing to the problems
is the limited amount of time available to conduct the research, and the heavy costs
involved in designers gathering the information. Information gaps do occur, and
being able to anticipate downward and emerging new trends, will ensure sustained
profit performance. The effectiveness of the research method is difficult to measure,
and the various members of the design team, undertake most of the methods
outlined below to obtain a collective view.

Research Methods which can be used by the fashion designer

Designers need to draw upon a diverse range of information to inform their decision-
making during the process of range planning and development. Depending on the

30. market level, type of product, and the company will determine the types of methods
used by the fashion designer. High Street retailers would use methods related to the
here and now and secondary sources, and would be influenced by current trends for
mass-market consumers.

Whereas designer labels would be more interested in influences external to fashion
and primary sources, to create highly original and innovative collections.
Fashion forecasting is an important activity to ensure that through the process of
observation, related to short and long term planning can be based on sound and
rational decision making not hype. Forecasting can bridge the gap between
ambiguous, conflicting signs and the action taken by the design team. “Fashion
forecasting combines theories of fashion changes with the process of organising and
analysing the information and synthesizing the data into actionable forecasts.”
(Brannon 2000) Forecasting is a creative process that can be understood, practiced
and applied. Forecasting provides a way for executives to expand their thinking
about changes, through anticipating the future, and projecting the likely outcomes.
(Lavenback and Cleary 1981) Brannon (2000) puts forward steps in developing a
forecast, which consists of tools and techniques applied systematically.
Steps in developing a forecasting are:
 Identifying the basic facts about past trends and forecasts
 Determine the causes of change in the past
 Determine the differences between past forecasters actual behaviour
 Determine the factors likely to affect trends in the future
 Apply forecasting tools and techniques paying attention to issues of accuracy
and reliability
 Follow the forecast continually to determine reasons for significant deviations
from expectations
 Revise the forecast when necessary.
 The methods of identifying and anticipating what will be successful
ranges/collections for next season, are influenced by how inspirational
concepts are sourced, how information is gathered, and what references are
utilised to create the new ranges.

31. Trade Shows
Designers visit trade shows to gain advanced knowledge of fabrics, and fashion
products, such as garments, accessories, and footwear. These shows are organised
by textile and fashion garment companies, to present new fabric or garment ranges,
and the purpose is to sell their products to fashion buyers and designers. It is
important that designers attend these shows to be able to observe and obtain future
insights, which influence their decision-making abilities when designing the ranges.
All fashion companies surveyed all sent designers to visit trade shows on a regular
basis, and stated the importance of international travel, in the creative process was
essential to design development. The advantages of attending trade shows proved
to be linked to networking, building relationships with suppliers, viewing new
information and products and most of all the important ascertaining key information
on which to base range planning. Attending key trade shows also provide a wealth of
information and ideas for inspiration. These shows are normally held twice a year,
and present new product ranges at least 12 –18months ahead of the season. There
are usually two types of trade shows, textile or garment.

Textiles shows are divided into two categories, yarn or fabric shows. The success of
trade shows is based on the attendance by leading figures in the industry. One very
important fabric trade show is Premier Vision, and has presents products from over
850 European weaver-exhibitors and over 45,000 visitors over the four days.
(Jackson 2001) Garment and product shows are much more diverse, ranging from
high profile catwalk designer shows to more mainstream and mass market shows. In
addition, they are segmented according to sector, such as sportswear, lingerie,
menswear or womens wear.
Garment Shows are held in international locations, and allow the fashion buyer to
observe new merchandise, and liason with the manufacturers/suppliers to confirm
new orders, or to buy new ranges. The fashion buyer are constantly searching for
new ranges/collections to add interest to their existing portfolio of suppliers, as well
as identifying cheaper versions with good quality features.
These product trade shows are constantly changing, in terms of their locations and
names, however the European textile trade shows have sustained their positions
during volatile trading conditions. The UK Textile industry has suffered a decline and
does not attract the international audience it once did. The Elite Fabric Show in

32. London, although small in scale, does provide a national service to UK fashion
designers. Trade shows present key trends through a variety of methods. They
provide thematic groupings of directional concepts in a central location at the venue.
In addition, further insights are gained from watching audiovisual shows, which
fashion experts use as overviews of the season and emerging trends.

Key decision making stages in the development of a fashion season Spring/Summer
2001 (adapted from Jackson 2001)



Date Event Textile Show Garment Shows
May Fashion Forecasters plan colour
June British Textile Colour Group (BTCG) meets Intercolour Group meets –
Paris BTCG representative return to review
October Premiere Vision (A/W 00/01) (incorporating Indigo S/S 01)
November Filo Yarn – Milan (mainly weavers)
December Expofil yarn show - Paris
January Pitti Filati yarn show - Florence
Paris Couture Shows
February Tissu Premier fabric show - Lille
London Fashion Week
Paris Fashion Week
Milan Fashion Week
March Prato Expo fabric show – Florence
Premier Vision - Paris
July Pitto Uomo Menswear – Florence
August 40 degrees Young
Casual wear – London
Pure – Womenswear –London
Herren Moda-Inter Jeans Cologne
September/
October Designer Ready to wear shows
Designer CoutureShows

33. Fashion Forecasting Agencies

Trend identification enables companies to execute a strategy based on timing. These
“strategic windows” (Abel 1978) involves timing the firms’ product offering to the
customers’ readiness and willingness to accept and adopt those products.
Forecasting agencies are the primary vehicle for presenting this kind of information.
“We live in a time when the turnover of stuff – clothing, electronics, bands, holiday
destinations, cooking ingredients – has reached blur speed”, says Nick Barham,
head of Profusion, the trend-spotting unit for the advertising
agency Bartle Bogle Hegarty, whose clients include Levi’s.

These agencies gather information and visual images on colour, fabric, yarn etc
usually 2 years ahead of schedule i.e if a company is designing 18months ahead,
the information they are using has been prepared anything between 6months to 1
year in advance. In the first instance internationally syndicated bodies such as
Dupont or ICI discuss this information with the relevant consultancies, which in turn
sell this information to the forecasting agencies.

They produce in the form of books or slides, all this assimilated knowledge to
manufacturer/ design teams within the garment industry. One of the leading trend
predictors is Li Edelkoort, who has her business in Paris, provides directions for the
“next big thing”.

The majority of fashion companies do refer to fashion forecasting books, not
necessarily through employing agencies on a consultancy basis, but through
purchasing information through specialist fashion book suppliers. Fashion
forecasting agencies have reduced in number of the last 5 years, with the
disappearance of key agencies such as Design Intelligence. However, this particular
function is now integrated into large companies as part of the design department,
with in-house forecasting teams, who liase with designers in developing ranges. The
advantages of such in-house forecasting is to ensure that formalised structured
reporting is undertaken in line with the company strategy and market needs. The

34. disadvantages of such integration can be the limited inspirational thinking. External
agencies who are not linked to the corporate structure of the fashion company can
provide fresh, new and innovative thinking in the development of ranges.
There are a number of forecasting businesses that provide specialist information to
the fashion company. Well known agencies are Peclers, Promostyle, and Li
Edelkoort are international players and provide extensive visual books to fashion
companies. Promostyle is a trends forecasting business, which offers services to a
global client base as well as customised consulting service to companies. These
forecasting agencies offer directions and advisory information based on many years
of experience, and have the ability to spot a potentially strong trend.

Fashion forecasting is used within the fashion/textile industry as a means of directing
companies into new ideas of colour/fabric/theme/mood and yarn developments for
different product types and levels. Knowledge of trends and future market
requirements is increasingly important to the industry. While there is no definitive
fashion story, accessing the right colour palette, researching fabric and styling trends
to suit a particular niche and customer profile is essential. The degree and quality of
information available to designers and its interpretation, given an effective marketing
strategy, effectively dictates their success in the market place.

The dissemination of trend information in the textiles supply chain has evolved in a
fragmented manner. Contributing factors are the declining degree of vertical
integration overall and the traditional small size of apparel manufacturers. Because
of the dominance of retail brands, firms have traditionally manufactured to their own
requirements with no compunction to investigate the trends themselves. This has
adversely affected Small and Medium Enterprises wanting to develop their own
brands and the large number of small scale manufacturing aiming to diversify from
Cut Make and Trim.
Attempts to define and analyse forecasting/prediction consultancies roles and how
they are used are on the whole vague, confused and ill informed. The UK fashion
and textile industry has traditionally been production orientated with long runs of
similar styles and colours of the seasonal norm. This is changing as manufacturers
adapt to the more demanding consumer requirements. The increasing need to

35. become more market orientated necessitates up to date design information, to be
analysed and adapted to particular markets and requirements.

By accurately forecasting customer trend requirements less end of season
discounting and increased profits are realised by both manufacturers and retailers.
The increase of fashion prediction book, such as Textile View, Interior View, Textile
Report, Juene Creatuers, are available through specialist book shops and provide a
less expensive method of featuring fabric, colour and look combinations. The
analysis of this published trend information is another important task of the designer
and the product development team. These fashion books also provide important
directions in terms of graphics, page layout, emerging product trends, contemporary
images and overall presentational information that are part of the concept
inspirational development process. However, these books are essential in confirming
and assisting designers in understanding and developing future
ranges.

Forecasting agencies usually have their own trend-spotting unit like the one at BBH,
while other industries hire the services of people like Faith Popcorn. Ms Popcorn,
probably the world’s famous spotter, advises multinationals like IBM and Pepsi, and
is credited with predicting the cocooning craze in the early Nineties. Trend spotters
are the middleman between the underground and the overground. They travel the
world, visiting clubs, bars and shops, sourcing fabrics and sensing the vibe. They
gather their findings, and instead of passing on ideas through word of mouth, they
package their findings in the form of trends books.

Fashion Publications

All the fashion companies surveyed used fashion magazines extensively in
researching trends and assessing the current ranges. There are 4 different types of
fashion publications which designers use during the creative process. Directional
specialist lifestyle magazines such as Wallpaper, Spoon, Dutch provide visual
information, which are not directly related to fashion products, but communicate
messages about lifestyle products and contexts.

36. Directional fashion magazines such as Purple, Tank, Another Fashion, provide
images and feature products from new generation designers, who are experimental
in their fashion and styling development. In addition, Fashion Consumer Magazines
such as Vogue, Marie Claire, Elle, provide features on designer collections, and high
street ranges to a mass market audience. The fourth type of fashion publication is
professional and trade magazines, which directly reports on business issues and
provides information on trade show events.

Magazines provided secondary information about competitor’s products, as well as
inspiration material for determining potential products for next seasons. They provide
an effective and efficient way of observing and viewing wide ranging themes and
concepts presented by the fashion press. The features provide clues about how
styling stories are coordinated as well as emerging new product trends through
reporting information. Depending on the market level, segment, and sector will
influence the types of fashion publications, which are used by the fashion designer.

Catwalk Shows

“The catwalk show is a public event, a marketing exercise, where each show guards
and maintains its own aura of exclusivity. Such exclusivity is part of its very
marketability, where the audience forms part of the spectacle and the product
portrays an image that is reflected only in its semblance” (Khan 200). The catwalk
show according to Khan provides one purpose which is to be noticed. However, the
catwalk shows, although a powerful marketing tool, also provide not only a
presentation of new ranges to the retail buyers, but are public forums used by the
high street retailers to influence water downed versions of the designer
products.
Catwalk shows provide the high street retailers with ideas, which are often translated
in a cheaper version. The high street retailers are able to copy and supply to the
shops within one week of observing the catwalk shows. The designer labels provide
important key silhouettes, fabrics and overall styling directions, which are influence
fashion designers thinking and confirmation of the right direction. Presented twice a
year, every 6 months, and one season ahead ready for collections to be in the shops
before the start of either the summer or winter.

37. People who attend these events are buyers from retail outlets, such as
independents, department stores, and designers from mass-market companies. The
function of the catwalk is to presenting new and original fashion statements, and
highly original styling looks.
Season 1

Catwalk Shows Shown at beginning of Autumn
September
Shown in at beginning of Spring

Season 2

February
Collections Season Presenting Spring/Summer Presenting Autumn/Winter

Directional Shopping Trips

One important activity of the designer is producing directional shop reports. This task
was identified as the most common method of researching new fashion ranges, and
of all the companies surveyed this was the key approach utilised by the designer.
This activity is undertaken by the designer and is usually involves trips to New York,
Far East and Western European locations to gain ideas from different cultures. Shop
reports informs the team and company of what is happening in the retail market, but
is also used to communicate in more detailed the merchandise seen. Designers
would cover a wide range of market levels and merchandise to ascertain a broad
view of fashion and consumer lifestyles. The mass-market approach to product
development would be to look at the designer labels and develop more
affordable design ideas and water down the looks.

Shop reports also take into account a close examination of price, fabrication, colour,
shape, trims, print etc. Retail reports are important to ensure that designers are
constantly aware of the merchandise available at the high street stores, designer
boutiques. Both high street and designer level have their influences on the

38. designer’s decision making. Design teams have to come to their own conclusions on
how these design trends will evolve or be projected for the following year. Without
this information there can be no directions identified, and it is important to be well
informed on the fashion, market and consumer environment.

Fashion is a constant evolution of trends, rather than personal ideas plucked from
nowhere, otherwise the ideas would resemble the theatrical costumes rather than
fashion. Retail reports are an account of current merchandise in retail outlets.
Reports can be divided into individual garment categories such as sportswear,
accessories, womens wear. An informative retail report is one of careful selection,
not just reviews of common merchandise, designers have to select the right
garments, which could be utilised for future development.

The recording process is then organised into a coherent and organised information
report. Once the information has been roughly gathered, it must be presented in a
logical and presentable manner and illustrate what is being projected. A retail report
acts very much like a magazine, but with a more detailed and intense analytical
account. The information is usually grouped around looks built around key items.
E.g. sport, casual, knitwear, childrenswear. The selection of the design material
gathered, is analysed and presented in product ranges or categories. The report
must include written statements, with an account ofconclusions of the retail market,
looks being projected and the key items for that season. Theretail report must project
a universal account of the major looks and items of the season.

Cultural Events

Designers also take inspiration from cultural influences. Being sensitive to how
people dress, what they want from their clothes is very important to understanding
their dress needs.
By exploring different cultures and exploring diversity can expand the creative
thinking to form new looks. “Fashion is what has become the propelling momentum,
the dominant mode of consumption itself, as both the organizational thematic and
fluctuating dynamic of consumption, fashion is rapidly instituting itself as the
universal code under which all other previous cultural codes are subsumed.”

39. (Faurschou 1990) Researching fashion cultural trends are a complex and difficult
task. A number of theories have been put forward on what influences fashion and
explanations on the phenomenon of change. Traditional perspectives include the
trickle down theory (Davis 1992), collective selection theory (Blumer 1969), mass-
market theory (King 1963) and sub-culture leadership theory (Kaiser). Trickle down
theories emphasis the vertical flow of ideas from upper to lower
class. Collection selection emphasises collective taste and conforming to similar
fashion looks. Mass-market refers to the fact that mass production in the fashion
industry is the main sources of change. Subculture leadership theory holds that
different subcultures can inspire new fashion and how it is diffused among the
general public. However, recent contemporary research studies into these areas,
views fashion change to be divided into micro and macro level. The micro level
refers to the individual searching for new looks in the marketplace, but still wanting
acceptance in society, and the second macro level theory by Kean’s (1997)
interpretation that the fashion system is the key change agent.

Small retailers follow the large and powerful retailers in providing similar styles in
each fashion season. People are forced to select from similar styles, but the main
difference lies in the way people mix and co-ordinate their outfits while expressing
their individuality. Behling (1985) sees fashion change from role models in society
and the populations’ disposable income. He argues that a high rate of disposable
include can accelerate the process of fashion change and vice versa.

Historical Sources

Designers are constantly referring to past fashion movements to influence new looks
and styling statements. Attending exhibitions and museums are an important way of
accessing and seeing historical costumes, which can provide a wealth of ideas. It
provides sources of information to assist in identifying classic and successful
features from past fashion
movements. An example of how important it is to be aware of historical references is
constant use of the corset, which has been a highly commercial success for the last
5 years,
and still features in the majority of designer and high street ranges.

40. Media/Music
Britain is known as being the leader in young leading edge fashion design, and a
source of fashion inspiration. It is seen as particularly good at taking trends from the
“street” and it is often allied to the music industry. The subculture movements
normally derived from the music industry, are very important indicators and signals to
new forms of fashion statements.
Designers need to constantly be aware of the sociological trends which influence
underground movements and their adoption to mainstream fashion styling.
“Subcultures, and youth cultures in general, have gradually separated out their
particular imagery from the world of daily labour and immediate social contexts.”
(Chambers 1990: 68-9). By analysing trends in music and television, can have great
impact to the success of new ranges being created by the fashion designer.
In addition, films prove to be an important source of inspiration. “Both Tom Ford and
Ralph Lauren took 1930’s black and white films are a starting point, with Ford going
so far as to give us Fred Astaire white gloves and a silver-topped cane at Gucci.”
(Colin McDowell 2001)
Old films have been an inspiration for Ralph Lauren throughout his career, and he
used comboy films such as High Noon to mark his 35th year as a designer.

Internet
The Internet provides effortless accessibility to international environments, and
products. Over the last few years there has been an increase in specialist websites
providing fashion information to the fashion designer. The fashion websites provide
up to date information on issues concerning the fashion industry. In addition, they
provide online reporting systems such as merchandising surveys, trade show
summaries, catwalk pictures. This provides the designers with access to current
information instantly, and reduces the costs of researching and travelling to gain this
type of reference material. Websites are becoming a central resource to designers to
ensure they are armed with a set of tools to ensure that the ranges
being produced are competitive and meet consumer demands. New websites are
presenting highly progressive ideas and exploring the use of multimedia techniques,
which provides insights to fashion companies to ensure they are presenting
themselves to the public in acontemporary manner. Specialist Internet sites also
serve the fashion industry, such as WGSN, and first view.

41. Chapter 3

Fashion & Forecasting – Ever changing world.

To cope with the ever-changing world, the marketing segmentation and targeting
techniques are rapidly evolving from traditional, static, demographic-based criteria
towards dynamic, mood, lifestyle and psycho graphic influences. Fashion forecasting
is the prediction of mood, behavior and buying habits of the consumer. It is no longer
a question of identifying your customers by age, geography or income, but looking
into how and why they buy, based on their mood, beliefs and the occasion.


Fashion is a style that is popular in the present or a set of trends that have been
accepted by a wide audience. But fashion itself is far from simple. Fashion is a
complex phenomenon from psychological, sociological, cultural or commercial point
of view. Fashion trends are the styling ideas that major collections have in common.
They indicate the direction in which the fashion is moving. Fashion forecasters look
for styles they think are prophetic, ideas that capture the mood of the times and
signal a new fashion trend.
The fashion system has spread across all other sectors, from cosmetics to cars via
politics and sports. All sectors observe fashion as an endless source of inspiration.
Gilles Lipovetsky points out that the more the fashion society develops, the less
importance will be given to the affordability of clothes! To hold on to its role as a
pioneer and enhance its brand image, fashion has to continue to innovate.
Forecasting the future demand for particular styles, fabrics and colors is an important
aspect of the fashion industry. Textile specialists work two years ahead to determine
the general guidelines for each fashion season. Fashion forecasting is an important
activity to ensure that the process of observation related to short and long term
planning can be based on sound and rational decision making and not hype.
Forecasting can bridge the gap between ambiguous, conflicting signs and the action
taken by the design team. "Fashion forecasting combines theories of fashion
changes with the process of organizing and analyzing the information and
synthesizing the data into actionable forecasts." (Brannon 2000) Forecasting is a
creative process that can be understood, practiced and applied. Forecasting

42. provides a way for executives to expand their thinking about changes, through
anticipating the future, and projecting the likely outcomes. (Lavenback and Cleary
1981)

Long term forecasting (over 2 years ahead) is used by executives for corporate
planning purposes. It is also used for marketing managers to position products in the
marketplace in relationship to competition.
Short term forecasting is used by product developers, merchandisers and production
managers to give style direction and shape collections. For short term forecasting
most apparel companies subscribe to one or more services, whose job is to scan the
market and report on the developments in color, textiles and style directions.

Forecasters reflect the earliest views on trends some eighteen months in advance of
the season. At this stage, color is a crucial consideration of yarn mills. It is also the
focus of discussion among others who are interested in very early trend decision-
making. Fashion forecasters combine the views emerging about color and fabric
from the early yarn and fabric trade shows with their socio-economic and cultural
analysis. Major trends in lifestyles, attitude and culture in particular music, sport,
cinema and television are used to predict changing consumer demands.
Fashion forecasting involves the following activities such as studying market
conditions, noting the life style of the people, researching sales statistics, evaluating
popular designer collections, surveying fashion publications, observing street
fashions etc.


The Direction of Fashion Change
Observation is not enough. If the trend watcher is to take advantage, he needs a
framework for explaining how the trend began and its likely path within a social
system. The directional theories of fashion change trickle down, trickle up and trickle
across to make prediction easier by pointing to the likely starting points for a fashion
trend, the expected direction that trend will take and how long the trend will
last.Some trend watchers visualize the dynamics of fashion as a pyramid of status
level. In some theories, fashion trickles down from a highly visible elite. In others,
fashion trickles up from street once it is discovered by the fashion elite and

43. introduced to mainstream audiences in an edited version. If a fashion look is
promoted by the media and manufactured rapidly enough, the look can trickle across
all levels of the market simultaneously for denim, introduction of an unusual color
range, a modification in a silhouette or detail, a different way to wear an accessory or
a mood expressed in a distinctive style. The pattern of acceptance (or rejection) can
be mapped in time.
Fashion responds to whatever is modern i.e., to the spirit of the times or the
Zeitgeist. People choose among competing styles, those that "click" or connect with
the spirit of the times. This collective selection forms a feedback loop between the
fashion industry and the consumer, a feedback loop moderated by aesthetic trends
and social-psychological processes.
The Look; Design Concept As fashion insiders and forecasters have a mental map of
the marketplace, the locations where innovations are likely to be glimpsed early, the
supply chain of the textile/apparel industry and the retail conduct to consumers.
Fashion insiders also have another mental map - the map of seasons and shows.
When consumers shop for winter coats or summer swimsuits, fashion insiders are
seasons ahead in their thinking.
Forecasters use these mental maps to organize their observations of directional
information. Since innovations rarely apply to the entire marketplace, information
must be tagged for the appropriate price point, category and classification. In this
way, forecasters turn random bits of data into useful information for decision support,
points and style directions.

The drivers of fashion change
Social and cultural changes are major determinants of emerging fashions. However,
they are themselves affected by the other drivers of change that include globalization
of world markets and accessibility of more sophisticated communications
technologies. The latter has provided people with faster and wider access to more
ideas and influences from other cultures and societies, driving demand for wider
choice in fashion products.

44. The Fashion Forecasting Process

a) Trend forecasting businesses : French companies based in Paris have
traditionally dominated fashion forecasting. Although a number of larger ones are
still based in Paris, many with satellite offices around the world, a number of new
niche forecasters have emerged offering their own specialties of product and
services.
Some better-known trend forecasters include:
 SachaPacha
 Peclers Trend Union
 Line Creative Partners
 Au Studio Promostyl. Promostyl

Forecasting is more that just attending runway shows and picking out
potential trends that can be knocked off at lower prices (although that is part
of it). It is a process that spans shifts in color and styles, changes in lifestyles
and buying patterns and different ways of doing business. What appears to be
near random activity is in fact a process of negotiation between the fashion
industry and the consumer, and between the various segments in the supply
side chain.


b) Consumer research

Manufacturers and retailers may ask consumers directly about their buying
preferences. Consumer reactions are compiled and tabulated to find preferences for
certain garments or accessories, colors or sizes and so on ,or products to fit specific
consumer tastes.Surveys, by telephone or mail are conducted by publication and
market research companies for manufacturers and retailers. These surveys include
questions about income, life-style, fashion preference and shopping habits.
Customers are usually selected by the market research firm to meet with
manufacturers or retailers. In-store informal interview can help researchers obtain
information by simply asking customers what they would like to buy, what styles they

45. like that are currently available and what merchandise they want, but cannot find.
Because of their close contact with their customers, owners of small stores can often
do this most effectively.
The apparel supply chain has one purpose, i.e. to provide an appealing and
desirable product to satisfy customer needs, wants or aspirations. When successful,
the connection results in a sale, because this connection is the purpose of the
process. Every forecast begins with the customer, by observing the customer's
adjustments to the marketplace and in the unexpected ways the customer adjusts
the marketplace to his lifestyle and preferences.
Consumer research figures are important in decisions about product development,
brand marketing and retailing.


c) Colour Forecasting : Stimulating sales is the driving force behind color
forecasting. Color grabs the customers' attention, makes an emotional connection
and leads them to the product. Even when the basic product stays the same,
changing the color gives a sense of something new. Color consultants help
companies decide on the right color story to sell the product. Some consultants
specialize in advising on color. Others develop color forecasts as part of their overall
product development function. Some large companies have departments dedicated
to setting color directions for multiple lines. Professional color organizations bring
together experts to collaborate on forecasts for industries like women's wear, men's
wear, children's wear and residential and non-residential interiors.


d) Textile Development
Frequently, the development of a completely new product is the result of a particular
functional need, but often it is driven by the benefits offered by a new fabric.
Specialist forecasters make the point that the technology is changing the range of
product, as through the ranges of benefits that designers can build into garment
product through the textiles used in construction.
Fabrics range from slick surfaces like leather and futuristic plastic to softer surfaces
like cashmere, from flat weaves to heavy textures like boucle and from the solid

46. structure of flannel to the web-like open structure of crochet. Clothing has been
called "the second skin" in recognition of its intimate connection with a person's
physical and psychological comfort (Horn, 1975). So it is not surprising that news
about which fabrics are "in" or "out" plays such a prominent role in forecasting
fashion. Newness in fabrics comes from the introduction of new fibers, the
manipulation of yarn and fabric structures, variation in pattern and prints and
innovative finishing processes. These innovations are introduced in trade shows and
exhibitions held in the fashion capitals of the world.

e) The Range of shows
The fashion shows: The word here is its widest possible interpretation to refer to the
range of organised textile and fashion garment trade shows, operating over the 16
months preceding season. Trade shows, whether yarn, fabric or product have a
basic function, which is to sell products.
Visitors vary according to the nature of the show. A yarn show will attract a range of
people including fabric manufacturers, some retail buyers and designers. The fabric
show performs a more balanced role with great emphasis on then sales of the fabric,
but with more retail designers and buyers attending, as the product on the show has
a greater relevance to garment design. Garment design shows are much more
diverse, ranging from the products trade shows through to the high profile Ready -to-
wear Designer shows like London Fashion week and then the exclusive Couture
shows.
Continuing this sequence, specialist product trade shows are held after the fabric
shows. These shows are segmented according to broad sector like men's wear or
women's wear, and by specialist product categories, like sports wear or lingerie.
These shows are a good indicator of color, fabric, styling and new products.f) Sales
Forecasting
Forecasting is relatively easy, straightforward and accurate for products with long
lifetime and steady sales. However, the fashion apparel business is one of the most
volatile, because it creates products that are new, highly seasonal or have short
lifetimes. In such situations forecasts become increasingly inaccurate. Errors in sales
forecasting result in two kinds of losses:
. Markdowns, when retailers have unwanted goods remaining at the end of a selling
period, such goods then must be sold, even at a loss. . Lost sales on more popular

47. items because of stockouts (merchandise not available in stock at the time when
consumers request it).
Companies have been slow to recognize the changing market environment and
adapt forecasting practices to decrease the uncertainty about product demand.
Sales forecasting impacts every apparel executive's work life, whether they help
develop the analysis, read and act on the reports or merely react to the result of
over- or under-estimating sales. For this reason, apparel executives need a basic
understanding of the traditional approaches to sales forecasting and the leading-
edge technologies making real-time marketing a reality in the apparel industry.
Eventually, a manufacturer and retailer researches his own sales record. Rising
sales statistics show what fashion trends are developing and declining sales show
what styles have passed their peak.
Overall sales show, that as style is not meeting consumer needs for quality or fit , its
time to drop it from the line and move on to new styles.

h) Introducing Innovation
While attention is showered on the most exciting and extreme runway fashions, the
mechanisms of fashion change work in the background to create patterns familiar to
the most experienced fashion watchers. When an innovation arrives on the scene,
individuals consider it for adoption. The cumulative effect of those decisions can be
tracked in sales and visually on the street. In fashion terms, the innovation may be
the invention of a new fiber or a new finish.

g) Cultural Indicators
In the apparel field, companies need an early warning system so that specific
product categories can be fine-tuned to trends within a market segment. While timing
is important, an agile and responsive company will be able to capitalize on trends
whenever they are spotted; sometimes just as a glimmer far in the future and
sometimes as a phenomenon in the building stage. Waning trends are another
signal. When some avocation, interest or lifestyle loses cultural power, it is a good
time to survey the information landscape for the next big thing.

48. h) Final Stage of fore casting
The 'Fashion look' for the season is therefore the result of a process of development
that combines the evolved views of textiles and product trade show, forecasters,
designers buyers and ready to wear shows. Like collage, the final picture emerges
after various layers have come together. Even though these shows have an impact
on some last minute high street fashion buys, their major impact is mainly on
reflecting the final views on trends close to the season. Crucially, the media
coverage of the shows is another important dimension in the trend development
process, as it highlights fashion trends that fashion editors believe will be strong for
the forth coming season. Such 'authoritative' coverage of the media, focusing
attention on aspects of fashion, including the 'must-have' looks, colors and products
influences the consumers' acceptance of hot trends for a season.
The Future of Forecasting

The Future of Forecasting
For apparel executives, hitting the target requires a balancing act between
anticipation of future developments and improvisation in the face of change.
The marketplace locks into one pattern, holds it briefly and then cascades into a new
configuration with the slightest jar to the equilibrium. In the marketplace, those shifts
may correlate with:
Changes in taste or lifestyles. Immigration. Technological developments. Shifts in the
prices of raw materials. Thus Fashion forecasting is used within the fashion/textile
industry as a means of directing companies into new ideas of
color/fabric/theme/mood and yarn developments for different product types and
levels. Knowledge of trends and future market requirements is increasingly important
to the industry. While there is no definitive fashion story, accessing the right color
palette, researching fabric and styling trends to suit a particular niche and customer
profile is essential. The degree and quality of information available to designers and
its interpretation, given an effective marketing strategy, effectively dictates their
success.

49. Forecasting fashion in the Indian scenario
The phenomenon of fashion moving from the ramp to the road seems to have
started happening in India. Over the last one year, fashion has been highly visible, at
least on the streets of metros. Western winds of fashion are reaching metros like
Mumbai and New Delhi virtually overnight. We also see new categories added to
customer wardrobes like club wear, travel gear and loungewear. This indicates a
segmentation of the customers' wardrobe. This also means that there are new
brands and labels, although not heavily advertised, easing into the market riding on
the trend of new segments. We expect this trend to rise further, mainly because
fashion as a market allows brands to be created mainly on the product look. The
biggest achievements are not from increasing efficiency, but by risk management.
This would mean that by riding on fashion trend one would fetch maximum benefits.
However, there is no agency today, which brands or retailers can follow for fashion
forecast of domestic market. We still have to follow international forecasts and
thereby miss out on lot of opportunities.

50. Fashion Forecasting – Reports and Designer’s views

56. Questions
1. Why is forecasting important in apparel merchandising?
2. What information is used in forecasting?
3. Why is vendor opinion good and bad in forecasting?
4. How can the buyer use a forecasting service and remain focused on the target
customer?
5. Why must forecasts be long term?
6. What must be done in strategic planning to prepare for forecasting?
7. How can a buyer on a limited budget prepare an accurate forecast?
8. How can a style out assist the buyer in making a forecast?
9. What is the outcome of a successful forecast?

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