Futuristic Planning EDM 221 ZaroArevalo.pptx

Educational Planning

1. CHAPTER 3: FUTURISTIC PLANNING LAZARO S. AREVALO EDM 221

2. EDUCATIONAL FUTURISM SCENARIO - a statement of assumptions about the operating environment of the system to be studied. -it is a brief description of future situations which could arise by the continuing interaction of a number of socio-economic, political, and other trends which can be identified currently.

3. STEPS IN DEVELOPING SCENARIO Identification of the individual trends which will produce basic long-term trends Agreement on assumptions relating to possible future environments Listing of logical outcomes with respect to possible future environments. Estimate the probability of occurrence of those outcomes. Choose the two most probable outcomes Repeat steps 3, 4 and 5 for those outcomes.

4. The consideration of future problems for education may be the following: 1. The necessity to adopt education to individual needs 2. The necessity to educate an independent autonomous personality 3. The necessity to educate a practical-minded method organization of man 4. Educational technology as a means of individualizing education 5. The formation of value-consciousness as a factor of an independent personality 6. Methods of teaching and guidance for developing ability in social activities

5. THE SCENARIO AS AN APPROACH TO STUDYING THE FUTURE Forecasting Method Forecast is carefully f ormed, time-based opinion about the future

6. Forecasting Method *E xploratory vs Normative Forecasting Exploratory forecasting - starts from today's assured basis of knowledge and is oriented toward the multiple opportunities that the future may hold. Normative forecasting- begins with the definition of particular desired future goal by working backward to the present. It describes an optional path from current reality to the specified target.

7. Forecasting Method *Forecasting vs. Planning Planning- is a process moving from goal formulation, through statements of specific objectives, definition and evaluation of alternative strategies, implementation and evaluation with feedback loops existing in each step of the process. Forecasting- serves as an aid to the planner in the definition and evaluation of alternatives

8. THE PROCESS OF SCENARIO WRITING An example of such a list for social forecasting might include such areas as: A. War or Peace B. Technology 1. Transport 5. Energy Conversion 2. Communications 6. Environmental Control 3. Computers 7. New Materials 4. Health Sciences

9. THE PROCESS OF SCENARIO WRITING An example of such a list for social forecasting might include such areas as: C. Population 1. Size and structure 2. Distribution D. Limiting Conditions of Economic Growth E. Occupational Structure 1. Personal Income 2. Status 3. Labor Organizations

10. THE PROCESS OF SCENARIO WRITING An example of such a list for social forecasting might include such areas as: F. Family Structure G. Community H. Prevailing Political Ethics I. Distribution of Economic power J. Race Relations K. Values

11. THE PROCESS OF SCENARIO WRITING An example of such a list for social forecasting might include such areas as: F. Family Structure G. Community H. Prevailing Political Ethics I. Distribution of Economic power J. Race Relations K. Values ATTITUDES ABOUT THE FUTURE AS A PLANNING MODE by Eric Trist MODE PAST PRESENT FUTURE ATTITUDE INACTIVE - + - Wait and See Re-Active + - - Put it back Pre-Active - - + Predict/Prepare Inter-Active + + + Make it

12. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING FOR THE YEAR 2000 Hailak ”Bullets Points" I. Educational planning in a changing context a. The political setting Two main developments affecting education. - Disartment and New International Relationships - Democratization b. The conceptual shift c. The demographic dimension d. The economic/financial trends e. The educational mosaic

13. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING FOR THE YEAR 2000 Hailak ”Bullets Points" II. The outlook for educational planning 1. T he scope: diversity of approaches and practices 2. The main converging trends -The need for long term prospective studies -Policy dialogue and analysis -Rolling planning -Hybrid planning -More blurred distinction between planning and administration -More qualitative concerns

14. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING FOR THE YEAR 2000 Hailak ”Bullets Points" II. The outlook for educational planning 3. The main methodological consequences -The central role information -The key role of comparative research and studies -The case for studies on incentives and regulating mechanisms -The case for policy analysis and strategies -Negotiation and communication -Traditional yet still needed techniques

15. EDUCATIONAL PLANNING FOR THE YEAR 2000 Hailak ”Bullets Points" III. International co-operation: What to support? -Upstream -Capacity-building -Innovative actions

16. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE PHILIPPINES The Quest for a Future Desired Society For the Filipino human environment. Such a society is: 1. Person- centered- focusing care on the needs of individual 2. Meritocratic- a social system, society, or organization in which people get success or power because of their abilities, not because of their money or social position 3. Humane- showing kindness, care, and sympathy toward others, especially those who are suffering 4. Democratic- pertaining to the principle of political or social equality for all

17. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE PHILIPPINES Societal Patterns for the Future A. The Rand Corporation projects that: *By 1984, the world population will be 4.3 billion: by 2000 A. D, 5.1 billion *Agriculture will be automated, sea water will be dessalinated , food will be obtained from oceans and synthetic material *Birth rate will be under control *There will be no more effective weather control. *Thermonuclear power will be the primary source of energy

18. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE PHILIPPINES Societal Patterns for the Future B. Alvin Toffler is saying that by 2000 A.D. *We will have sophisticated machines. *We will have more exploration into deep space space stations and utilization by man of the moon. *We will have te c hnology to control the weather air and water pollution *Genetic engineering will include cloning, birth technology through transplantation eugenics, Iife - spans of up to 150 to 200 yrs *Technology will revolutionize learning

19. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE PHILIPPINES Societal Patterns for the Future C. Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener identified 13 rubrics as a basic trends of Western Civilization up to 2000 A D *Growth of increasingly secular cultures *Accumulation of scientific and technological changes and knowledge *Institutionalization of change especially research, development, innovation and diffusion. *Population growth * Literacy and education will increase, but in new forms

20. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE PHILIPPINES Societal Patterns for the Future D. American Commission- 2000 A.D. identified 100 technical innovations, some of these are: *Multiple applications of lasers and masers for both peaceful and destructive uses. *New airborne vehicles *Extensive modernization of agriculture and forestry. *Capability to choose the sex of the unborn children *Robots as human slaves *New methods for teaching language rapidly *Automated supermarkets

21. SOME SPECIFIC PHILIPPINE SOCIETAL PROJECTIONS RELATING TO HIGHER EDUCATION Paris based Center for Educational Research pointed possible models for future projections: The future as the present model The future as an extrapolation of the present The single alternative future The technological future The comprehensive future

22. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES 1. Shifting at one extreme from the laissez faire towards more centralized control 2. The functions of higher education will clarify itself handed down from Western tradition. 3. There will be a drastic standstill, if not a decline, in the number of private colleges and universities. 4. It is difficult to project student enrolments in higher education over the next decades.

23. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES 5. The P50 million student million student fund is apparently aimed not only at helping the disadvantage get equality of opportunities into higher education 6. It is possible that a larger Career Guidance and Personal Counseling g service will be provided through a consortium of schools. 7. Some sectors like the religious affiliated institutions will attempt to set up an educational system of their own.

24. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES 8. This attempt by the Catholics to put a Catholic Educational System will be strengthened 9. The problems of Metro Manila education institutions are so complicated 10. As government increases, its aid and incentives to the private sector it will demand more visible performance criteria. 11. Some of the more dramatic changes in higher education will be in the non- formal system.

25. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES 12. We can see a number of new learning and research centers coming up in either public or private institutions 13. Some important offices will be set up in colleges and universities 14. More schools will vary programs and accommodate, with government prodding and assistance such as dropouts, repeaters and failures, Professionals who seek refresher courses, etc. 15. The teaching of futurism in college will be sped up through the of up the organization of an Institute of the future

26. FUTURE PATTERNS OF HIGHER EDUCATION IN GENERAL IN THE PHILIPPINES 16. Elite schools will remain 17. Education and schooling, therefore, are no longer considered as synonymous

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