Hazards and Disaster management lecture 1 and 2.pptx

Hazards and Disaster management lecture 1 and 2

1. Hazard and Disaster Management Introduction 2023 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 1

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3. PLO 6,10 AND 11 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 3

4. Specific Objectives of course: To familiarize students with the basic concepts of natural and human induced hazards To enable students to learn the techniques for pre-and post-disaster management. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 4

5. At the end of this course, students will be able to: No CLO Statement PLO Bloom’s CLO-1     Recall or recognize information Explain or interpret meaning from a given scenario or statement, suggest treatment, reaction or solution to given problem, create examples or metaphors (30) Mid term (30%)       PLO-6 THE ENGR AND SOCIETY C-1 CLO-2 Understand meaning, re-state data in one's own words, interpret, extrapolate, translate.   Explain or interpret meaning from a given scenario or statement, suggest treatment, reaction or solution to given problem, create examples or metaphors 5 quize+35End term (40%) PLO-7 ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY C-2 CLO-3 Use or apply knowledge, put theory into practice, use knowledge in response to real circumstances 15report+15 end term exam (30%) PLO-11 PROJECT MANAGEMENT C-3 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 5

6. Category or 'level' Behavior descriptions Examples of activity to be trained, or demonstration and evidence to be measured 'Key words' (verbs which describe the activity to be trained or measured at each level) Remembering (C1) Recall or recognize information Multiple-choice test, recount facts or statistics, recall a process, rules, definitions; quote law or procedure Arrange, define, describe, label, list, memorize, recognize, relate, reproduce, select, state Understanding (C2) Understand meaning, re-state data in one's own words, interpret, extrapolate, translate Explain or interpret meaning from a given scenario or statement, suggest treatment, reaction or solution to given problem, create examples or metaphors Explain, reiterate, reword, critique, classify, summarize, illustrate, translate, review, report, discuss, re-write, estimate, interpret, theorize, paraphrase, reference, example Applying (C3 ) Use or apply knowledge, put theory into practice, use knowledge in response to real circumstances Put a theory into practical effect, demonstrate, solve a problem, manage an activity Use, apply, discover, manage, execute, solve, produce, implement, construct, change, prepare, conduct, perform, react, respond, role-play Analyzing (C4) Interpret elements, organizational principles, structure, construction, internal relationships; quality, reliability of individual components Identify constituent parts and functions of a process or concept, or de-construct a methodology or process, making qualitative assessment of elements, relationships, values and effects; measure requirements or needs Analyze, break down, catalogue, compare, quantify, measure, test, examine, experiment, relate, graph, diagram, plot, extrapolate, value, divide Evaluating (C5) Assess effectiveness of whole concepts, in relation to values, outputs, efficacy, viability; critical thinking, strategic comparison and review; judgment relating to external criteria Review strategic options or plans in terms of efficacy, return on investment or cost-effectiveness, practicability; assess sustainability; perform a SWOT analysis in relation to alternatives; produce a financial justification for a proposition or venture, calculate the effects of a plan or strategy; perform a detailed risk analysis with recommendations and justifications Review, justify, assess, present a case for, defend, report on, investigate, direct, appraise, argue, project-manage Creating (C6) Develop new unique structures, systems, models, approaches, ideas; creative thinking, operations Develop plans or procedures, design solutions, integrate methods, resources, ideas, parts; create teams or new approaches, write protocols & contingencies Develop, plan, build, create, design, organize, revise, formulate, propose, establish, assemble, integrate, re-arrange, modify 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 6

7. Recommended Books: Thomas D. Schneid, Disaster Management and preparedness , CRC Press; 1 st Edition (November 22, 2000) David Alexander, Principles of Emergency planning and Management , Published in the United State of America by Oxford University Press Inc. 1998 Madison Avenue, New York 10016 Timothy Beatley , Philip Berke , David J. Brower 1999 Natural Hazard Mitigation: Recasting Disaster Policy and Planning Island Press ISBN: 1559636025 Charlotte Benson, Edward J. Clay (2004) Understanding the Economic and Financial Impacts of Natural Disasters World Bank Publications ISBN: 0821356852 The primer on Disaster Risk management in Asia Mr. Aloysius J. Rego Director of Knowledge Sharing and partnerships and CoTeam Leader of Disaster Management System team Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) 2003 FEMA 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 7

8. Introduction and definitions 1 1 Clo1 Introduction and definitions 2 2 Clo1 Social economic impacts basics 3 Clo1 Human Induced Hazards 4 Clo1 Geological Hazards 5 Clo1 Earthquake Hazards-1 6 Clo1 Earthquake Hazards-2 7 Clo1 Floods Droughts and Cyclones 8 Clo1 Disaster Management 9 Clo2 Disaster Mitigation 10 Cl,o2 Disaster Prepardeness-1 11 Clo2 Disaster Prepardeness-2 12 Clo2 Disaster Response 13 Col3 Social and Economic Impacts of Disasters 14 Clo3 Disaster Recovery 15 Clo3 Repair Maintenance and Monitoring 16 Clo3 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 8

9. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 9 MID , CLO-1, LEC 1-8 MARKS=30% QUIZE-1 CLO-2, LEC 13-16 MARKS=05% END TERM, CLO-2, LEC 1-8 AND 9-12 MARKS=35% END TERM, CLO-3, LEC 1-8 AND 13-16 MARKS=15% REPORT ( PBL ) CLO3, MARKS= REPORT=10 % PRESENTATION=5% NOTE: BEFORE STARTING WORKIN G ON REPORT READ THE RUBRICS ( pbl ) CAREFULLY.

10. Basic terminologies Hazard ( khatra ) : A natural or unnatural phenomenon or event that may cause Physical damage, or Economic loss or May threaten human life and well–being if it occurs in an area of human settlement. A natural hazard is a geophysical, atmospheric or hydrological event that has a potential to cause harm or loss. Usually these are both uncommon and extreme events in terms of the range of natural phenomena such as rainfall, tropical storms, flooding or seismic tremor/earthquake. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 10

11. Basic terminologies Disaster ( Museebat ) : a. The social effects of a hazard OR a serious disruption|distirbance causing widespread loss of life and property that exceeds the ability of the affected society to cope using its own Resources OR b. A catastrophic event during which normal life is totally disrupted. It is the situation after the hazardous event occurs which had an immense impact on humans and what they value. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 11

12. Basic terminologies Disaster ( Museebat ) : C. A disaster is a non-routine event that exceeds the capacity of the affected area to respond to it in such a way as to save lives; to preserve property; and to maintain the social, ecological, economic, and political stability of the affected region Mention some disasters our nation has faced to date! Hints. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 12

13. Basic terminologies A natural disaster is the occurrence of an abnormal or infrequent hazard that impacts on vulnerable communities or geographical areas, causing substantial damage, disruption and possible casualties and leaving the affected communities unable to function normally. Emergency : A phase of a disaster during which lives and/or livelihood are at risk and if no action is taken, lives will be lost. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 13

14. Basic terminologies Risk: A probability or threat of damage , injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurren ce that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action. The risk of disaster is typically described in terms of the probabilities of events occurring within a specified period, e.g., five, ten, or twenty years, a specific magnitude or intensity (or higher), or a range such as low, medium, or high risk 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 14

15. Basic terminologies Risk Analysis Risk analysis can be described as :- “Assessment of the likelihood (probability) of a natural or human induced event (accidental release of a hazardous material) and the consequences that might occur, based on the estimated vulnerable zones”. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 15

16. Basic terminologies Vulnerability ( kamzoori or ghair mehfooz ) Susceptibility/weakness to the negative consequences resulting from a natural disaster. Types of Vulnerability include physical or material vulnerability   Vulnerability is the potential to suffer harm or loss in terms of sensitivity and resilience or the magnitude of the consequences of the potential event. Vulnerability Analysis Vulnerability analysis is a measure of a community’s propensity(tendency) to incur loss. حساسیت۔ 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 16

17. Basic terminologies Preparedness : A term that describes the state of readiness to face a hazardous situation. Mitigation: A lessening or easing—before, during, and after a hazard—of the dire consequences that can result. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 17

18. Basic terminologies Disaster Cycle : A way to conceptualize disasters as an event with three distinct phases— Before, During, and After. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 18

19. Accidents: An unexpected or undesirable event, especially one causing injury to a small number of individuals and/or modest damage to physical structures Example: Automobile wreck, lightning strike at one house Emergency: An unexpected event which places life and/or property in danger and requires an immediate response through the use of routine community resources and procedures Crises: Short period of extreme danger, Acute emergency 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 19

20. Catastrophe Definition : An event in which a society incurs, or is threatened to incur, such losses to persons and/or property that the entire society is affected and extraordinary resources and skills are required, some of which must come from other nations Calamity: A massive or extreme catastrophic disaster that extends over time and space 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 20

21. Resistance : Ability to withstand the impacts and continue to function. Resilience: Ability to recover, ranging in degree from simply achieving stability at any level of functioning to recovering the full range of resources and positive momentum that existed prior to the event 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 21

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23. HAZARDS 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 23

24. Hazard Hazards refers to a potential harm which threatens our social, economic, and natural capital on a community, region, or country scale. A hazard has the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure or agricultural loss, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm. FEMA describes hazards as “Events or physical conditions that have the potential to cause fatalities, injuries, property damage, infrastructure damage, agricultural losses, damage to the environment, interruption of business, or other types of harm or loss” (1997). 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 24

25. Hazard Types Natural (flood, hurricane, earthquake, wildfire, etc.), Technological (hazardous materials spill, nuclear accident, power outage, etc.), Human-induced events (biochemical, bombing, weapons, mass destruction, terrorism, etc.). Compounded hazards Those that result from a combination of the above hazard types, such as urban fires resulting from earthquakes, failures of dams or levees resulting from flooding, or landslides resulting from wildfires and heavy rains. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 25

26. We are more resourceful than past Why Disasters are causing more losses Despite our efforts to reduce our vulnerability to disasters, we see that property losses, deaths, and injuries continue to increase. Numerous studies have documented that increased losses are growing because 1. Population growth occurs in high hazard areas. 2. Marginalized land ( ) is being developed, making us more susceptible to hazard impacts. 3. Larger concentrated populations in urbanized areas increase the potential for human and property loss; people are less familiar with hazards in their surroundings; growth may not be ecologically sustainable; more buildings and infrastructure may be damaged if an event occurs. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 26 پسماندہ زمین

27. We are more resourceful than past Why Disasters are causing more losses 4. People are not impacted by hazards equally; economic disparities cause large numbers of impoverished people to be at risk. 5. Immense potential for loss as sea levels rise ; weather and climate patterns will change. (NZ will have to abandon coastal areas 12/15 largest towns are with in 5km of coastal lines. A 1meter rise of sea level can effect 65 percent population. (NZ agreement with Australia) 6. Political unrest can directly cause loss (e.g., civil war) and/or make a region more susceptible to hazard impact due to lack of preparedness and/or inability to cope. More property is at risk to hazards, but preparedness and mitigation measures minimize loss of human life. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 27

28. Hazards Analysis: There are many perspectives on “hazard analysis” that vary from FEMA’s approach of knowing what could happen, the likelihood of it and having some idea of the magnitude of the problems that could arise (FEMA 1983). A hazard may be measured by its physical characteristics, likelihood, or consequences. For example, many coastal communities experience flooding. In this case Water from heavy rains, levee breach, or dam break would be the source of the hazard. The likelihood could be considered as low risk or not likely; it could be a medium risk or one that has a high likelihood of occurring. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 28

29. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 29 Computer simulations SOFTWARES : FEMA’s introduction of the HAZUS modeling software in 1997. LIMITATION : This approach unfortunately is limited to modeling one hazard at a time and fails to address a multi hazard environment or multiple risks (Cutter 1996) The US Environmental Protection Agency along with fourteen other Federal Agencies (National Response Team, NRT ) adopted a common approach to community level hazards analysis and planning ( NRT 1987). Shown in next slide.

30. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency hazards analysis process (Human induced) LIMITED SCENARIO 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 30

31. Hazard Identification Hazards identification provides specific information on the nature and characteristics of the hazardous event and the community. It further examines an event’s potential for causing injury to life or damage to property and the environment. Hazard identification takes advantage of the use of environmental modeling to characterize hazards and disaster impacts. As part of the EPA hazards analysis process, community involvement is encouraged through a broad-based team represented by local response agencies, the media, community public health units, medical treatment organizations, schools, public safety, and businesses. The formation of local emergency planning committees provides the basis for broad input in preparedness efforts. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 31

32. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 32 Understand Azard identification Vulnerability Analysis Risk Analysis FLOOD IN SEHWIN SINDH

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34. Vulnerability Analysis Vulnerability analysis is a measure of a community’s propensity (tendency) to incur loss . Vulnerability analysis may focus on physical, political, economic, and social vulnerability. RECALL: Vulnerability is, in other words, the susceptibility ( hasasiat ) to hazard risks. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 34

35. Vulnerability Analysis Vulnerability can also be a measure of resilience. According to Emergency Management Australia (2000), vulnerability is “The degree of susceptibility and resilience of the community and environment to hazards.” Vulnerability analysis 1. identifies the geographic areas that may be affected, 2. Individuals who may be subject to injury or death, and 3. Facilities, property, or environment may be susceptible to damage from the event: 4. The extent of the vulnerable zones (i.e., an estimation of the area that may be affected in a significant way). 5. The population, in terms of numbers, density, and types of individuals (e.g., employees; neighborhood residents; people in hospitals, schools, nursing homes, prisons, and day care centers) that could be within a vulnerable zone.   8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 35

36. Vulnerability Analysis Vulnerability analysis examines who and what is vulnerable and why : What Private and public property (e.g., critical facilities, homes, schools, hospitals, businesses, offices) may be damaged, Including essential support systems (e.g., water, food, power, communication, medical) and Transportation facilities and corridors? What property and groups are more likely to be affected by a disaster? 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 36

37. Vulnerability Analysis How could the environment be affected? What impact could a disaster have on sensitive natural areas and endangered species? What social groups are likely not to receive or not to understand or not to take the warning message seriously? Why? Are there characteristics of social groups that may make it more difficult for them to be rescued, to receive adequate emergency medical care, to feel comfortable in an emergency shelter? Are there population groups that are likely to suffer to a great extent economically or emotionally in a response as well as in a recovery? 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 37

38. Risk Analysis Risk analysis is described by the EPA as an assessment of the likelihood (probability) of an accidental release of a hazardous material OR (ANY OTHER HAZARD) and the consequences that might occur, based on the estimated vulnerable zones. The risk analysis is a judgment of probability and severity of consequences based on the history of previous incidents, local experience, and the best available current technological information. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 38

39. Risk Analysis It provides an estimation of: 1. The likelihood (probability) of a disaster based on the history of current conditions and consideration of any unusual environmental conditions (e.g., areas in flood plains), or the possibility of multiple incidents such as a hurricane with tornadoes (e.g., flooding or fire hazards). 2. Severity of consequences of human injury that may occur (acute, delayed, and/or chronic health effects), the number of possible injuries and deaths, and the associated high-risk groups. 3. Severity of consequences on critical facilities (e.g., hospitals, fire stations, police departments, communication centers). CONTINUE… 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 39

40. Risk Analysis 4 . Severity of consequences of damage to property (temporary, repairable, permanent). 5. Severity of consequences of damage to the environment (recoverable, permanent). Risk in this view is the product of the likelihood of a hazard occurring and the adverse consequences from the event. Simply stated, RISK = LIKELIHOOD × CONSEQUENCE 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 40

41. HAZARD ANALYSIS PROCESS AT COMMUNITY LEVEL 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 41

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43. Communicating Risk from a Hazards Analysis The results of a hazards analysis are not just for planning and mitigation of hazards but should be shared with the public. All communities have risks associated with natural hazards . Hazards that typically cause minimal damage are usually accepted as inevitable, and little is done to reduce the risk. Such hazards may be viewed as nuisances, rather than real threats to life and property. Some communities are willing to accept more risk than others. Factors such as the political culture and the socioeconomic level of the community determine the levels and kinds of risk that may be accepted. For example, poor communities may be willing to accept more risk from environmental hazards, because the economic base of the community will not directly support the allocation of resources for structural or nonstructural hazard mitigation initiatives. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 43

44. Communicating Risk from a Hazards Analysis Individual residents may refuse to purchase flood insurance or take other measures that have associated costs, because they have limited discretional financial resources. They want the insurance but just do not have the funds. Communicating information from the hazards analysis to the public can help shape perceptions of risk and elevate concern for protecting personal property. Further, by acknowledging local environmental risks, the community may initiate strategies that can overcome the individual financial limitations so as to protect the entire community from hazards. Collective action may be advisable when low-income residents who may be renters or homeowners cannot take individual action. Individual risk assessment, risk management, and impact assessment are all part of using information from a hazards analysis to protect individual citizens and their property. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 44

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46. Community Involvement in Hazards Analysis Hazards analysis is a scientific process that includes only the experts Versus Partnering experts in community planning, engineering, modeling, geography, sociology, or other hazard fields with community leaders and members. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 46

47. Community Involvement in Hazards Analysis Engagement process should include the following: 1 . Experts (public agency representatives, including emergency management and other local agencies along with consultants, if used) meet with local residents to explore common goals in a hazards analysis. 2. Identify questions and issues relevant to the residents, including the roles of residents or community members and agency experts (outsiders). 3. Develop, through consensus-building, common objectives and priorities for the hazards analysis beneficial to both the experts and residents. 4. Describe the hazards analysis process . 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 47

48. Community Involvement in Hazards Analysis 5. Develop, through consensus-building, an agreed-upon strategy of how the results of the hazards analysis will be shared with the community , organizations, and public officials. 6. Discuss residents’ concerns. 7. Initiate the project (s). 8. Present the results to the community for their response. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 48

49. Factors that effect the nature and extant of Natural hazards The nature and extent of a disaster depends on several factors including:- local and regional environments including the landscape, climate conditions including the probability of an event , how often they occur, and the capacity of the hazard to do harm. The s trength and vitality of the social, economic, and natural environments to withstand and cope with the adverse effects of a hazard. Response and recovery resources that enable communities, regions, and nations to cope and recover from disasters. The capacity of the organization, community, and region to recognize their vulnerability and initiate steps to reduce adverse impacts is critical to the hazards analysis process. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 49

50. comprehensive hazards analysis Sustainable culture :We do not control nature despite our efforts to design levees, dams, or buildings, and in many cases, we are the cause of disaster losses. We must understand the nature of hazards and build to reduce losses. The outputs of the hazards analysis process must be used to identify mitigation strategies so as to minimize our vulnerabilities socially, economically, and environmentally. Events, losses, and costs : Outputs from the hazards analysis process need to characterize our vulnerability and document how disasters have affected our communities. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 50

51. TASK 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 51 EXAMPLE 1. Sustainable culture :We do not control nature despite our efforts to design levees, dams, or buildings, and in many cases, we are the cause of disaster losses. We must understand the nature of hazards and build to reduce losses. The outputs of the hazards analysis process must be used to identify mitigation strategies so as to minimize our vulnerabilities socially, economically, and environmentally. UNDERSTAND EACH POINT AND LINK IT TO A PICTURE/IMAGE THESE STRUCTURES BUILT ALONG THE RIVERS/CANALS CAN ACCOMMODATE MANY PEOPLE DURING FLOODS. Here we have developed structures to minimize the impact of floods. The same structure after flooding is being used by the population as safe places.

52. comprehensive hazards analysis 3: The interactive structure of risk : The hazards analysis process can characterize our vulnerability and quantify areas that could be affected by a disaster. This process must also provide a broader view so we can see the social, political, economic, and environmental costs to our communities. This broader view of risk allows us to include many different interest groups in making decisions about reducing our vulnerability. 4:Land-use management: Local decision makers can use outputs of a hazards analysis in land-use plans. Limiting development may contribute to the social, ecological, and economic sustainability of our communities. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 52

53. Comprehensive hazards analysis 5: Engineering codes and standards : Local government adoption of codes and enforcement process are critical in reducing our vulnerability to disasters. A comprehensive hazards analysis provides critical information to ensure that code enforcement goals are attained. 6: P rediction, forecast, warning, and planning : A detailed hazards analysis provides a sound basis for ensuring that local communities can offer citizens adequate disaster warning. Procedures for delivering timely warning for disasters can be based on alternative planning scenarios from a hazards analysis. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 53

54. comprehensive hazards analysis 7: Disaster response and preparedness : Emergency preparedness plans are prepared on a comprehensive hazards analysis. Policies and operational procedures are driven by the nature of the hazards faced by organizations and communities. 8: Recovery and reconstruction : Planning for recovery should not begin following a disaster. To be effective, it should be part of a community hazard mitigation plan and include priorities for a community’s long-term recovery in the event of a disaster. 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 54

55. Comprehensive hazards analysis 9: Insurance : Insurance is not a prevention strategy, but it can be included as part of a recovery process. The question is, how can we use insurance as a means of ensuring that an entity’s financial stability is protected? 10: Economic sustainability : Public, private, and nonprofit organizations must understand the nature of risks facing them and develop strategies to reduce or eliminate losses. A hazards analysis is critical to this decision-making process 8/29/2023 DR M FIAZ TAHIR 55