Infiltration-Hotspots-Analysis data science.pptx

Data Science internship project

1. Infiltration Hotspots Analysis Analyzing border infiltration data and satellite imagery to identify high-risk areas and recommend security enhancements.

2. Exit to any country X = successful entry to country Y (legal + illegal) + unsuccessful entry to Y. (Considering X and Y are two neighbouring countries like A and B). No person entering illegally to another country was neutralized by security forces. A person can enter and exit from different post We cant predict a definite location of infiltration because data given is not sufficient to cover all the circumstances which are possible. So based on some assumptions we can predict the hotspots for infiltration Entry to any country X = Entry of illegal person from country Y + entry of illegal person from X who was unsuccessful in entering country Y.

3. Entry vs Exit Analysis Country A 13 total entries, 2 legal 2 total exits, all legal Country B 3 total entries, 2 legal 12 total exits, all illegal Infiltration Risk Majority of entries to A are illegal Majority of exits from B are illegal Border Crossing Data Entry: Country A Border Post Alpha: 3
Border Post Bravo: 0
Border Post Charlie: 3
Border Post Delta: 3
Border Post Echo: 4 Exit: Country A Border Post Alpha: 2
Border Post Bravo: 0
Border Post Charlie: 0
Border Post Delta: 0
Border Post Echo: 0 Entry: Country B Border Post Alpha: 0
Border Post Bravo: 3
Border Post Charlie: 0
Border Post Delta: 0
Border Post Echo: 0 Exit : Country B Border Post Alpha : 0 Border Post Bravo : 3 Border Post Charlie : 3 Border Post Delta : 3 Border Post Echo : 3

4. Infiltration Patterns 1 Border Post Alpha Lowest infiltration, well-secured 2 Border Post Bravo Minimal infiltration, security effective 3 Border Post Echo Highest infiltration, urgent security upgrade needed

5. Heat Map Inference Heat Maps are shown for all the posts. Post Bravo has zero infiltration incidents hence not present on map. Post Echo is the most sensitive and has the highest rate of infiltration. Border post Charlie has 3 infiltration attempt in which 1 attempt is foiled by military.

6. Satellite Imagery Insights 1 Vehicle Movements Suggest potential illegal crossings 2 Empty Areas Indicate likely infiltration routes 3 Military Presence Increased for border security operations 4 Infrastructure Changes May enable or support infiltration

7. Satellite Imagery Analysis 1 Vehicle Movement Vehicle movement may or may not be related to infiltration since there is 1 entry to country A and 1 entry to country B, and we have seen that country A has 2 legal entries and 1 illegal entry, so it is hard to say that the entries captured by the Satellite are illegal. 2 Empty Areas Satellite images showing empty areas are probably related to infiltration since there are 3 entries from border post Delta (all illegal) and the movement 1 entry from Alpha is probably that illegal entry about which we talked in recent slides, and the same behavior is seen across other borders. 3 Military Presence Satellite images showing increased military presence are not related to infiltration since the exit movement along post Alpha from country A is legal, and other entry/exit movements also seem legal at border Charlie and Bravo. 4 Infrastructure Development Satellite images showing new infrastructure developments are related to infiltration since the entry movement at border post Alpha in country A seems illegal, and as per the news on 3 April 2024, the infiltration attempt at border Charlie may be caused by the exit movement at post Charlie from country B. Other border post data also implies the same thing, that infiltration seems related to infrastructure development. 5 Troop Withdrawal Satellite images showing troop withdrawal may or may not be related to infiltration since the border movement at border post Alpha is legal, and other movements captured seem suspicious.

8. Correlation Data, Satellite Imagery, and News Reports The analysis of news reports and satellite imagery reveals a complex picture of the situation along the border. While news reports often align with satellite observations, there are some discrepancies, particularly around troop withdrawals and border crossings. The credibility of certain news sources, such as Border Watch, Defense News, Global Times, and Global Security, remains questionable due to their failure to accurately corroborate satellite data in some instances. Additionally, open-source intelligence (OSINT) suggests a consistent level of unrest across the border posts, with varying degrees of infiltration and security challenges. Infiltration on Border post Alpha and Bravo is least. Hence it can be concluded that security forces are more active and able to defend infiltration at post alpha and Bravo. Infiltration is predominant on border Echo, Delta and Charlie hence need more strict measures to curb cross border movement. Increased troop movement/border patrol clashes signifies possible future infiltration attempts.

9. Threat Assessment and Recommendations 1 Infiltration Threats Infiltration poses significant threats, including alleged sabotage of border security infrastructure, damage to border facilities, and attempts by cross-border smugglers. These threats require a comprehensive security response. 2 Security Measures Increased security measures are needed at the border posts with higher infiltration rates, such as Charlie, Delta, and Echo. The current security measures at posts Alpha and Bravo appear to be effective in deterring infiltration attempts. 3 Predictive Patterns Observations suggest a pattern in infiltration attempts, where militia groups target specific border posts for a certain period before shifting their focus to the next. Leveraging this pattern can help predict and preempt future infiltration attempts.

10. Recommended Security Enhancements Targeted Patrols Focus on high-risk border posts Advanced Sensors Seismic, infrared, remote microphones Improved Surveillance Enhance monitoring of border activity

11. Infiltration Hotspot Predictions Border Post Alpha Continued low risk Border Post Bravo Maintained security effectiveness Border Post Charlie High risk, require increased patrols Border Post Delta Elevated risk, enhanced monitoring

12. News Reporting Accuracy News Channel Reliability Assessment Border Watch Questionable Reports do not fully align with data Defense News Questionable Reports do not fully align with data Global Times Questionable Reports do not fully align with data Global Security Questionable Reports do not fully align with data Other Channels Reliable Reports corroborate satellite observations

13. Conclusion The data, satellite imagery, and news reports indicate that the border post Echo is the most sensitive and has the highest rate of infiltration, while border post Bravo has the least infiltration. The entry and exit patterns, as well as the satellite imagery analysis, suggest that infrastructure development and empty areas are related to infiltration attempts, while increased military presence does not necessarily indicate infiltration. Overall, the analysis provides insights into the hotspots and patterns of infiltration along the border, which can inform security planning and decision-making.