Managerial tools - Decision making techniques

Managerial tools - Decision making techniques

1. Realize the need for decision-making from many perspectives and will be able to factor in control discussion with each decision. The participant will be able to : Terminal Objectives

2. Apply the steps in the decision-making process. Acknowledge barriers that may prevent people to define problems correctly. Determine the 4 styles of Decision Making Identify why people can not reach agreement through “Abilene Paradox” movie and how to overcome it. Use some techniques for making managerial decisions like Six thinking hats Use at least 2 methods of decision making in groups The participant will be able to : Specific Objectives

3. Decision Taking Or Decision Making ??

4. Why we need to take a Decision ? Improvement Problem

5. Some difficulty that we can’t understand . A state of disorder . Problem Definitions

6. Types of Problems Routine Crisis Opportunity

7. Decision Levels

8. Managerial Decisions Types Non-Programmed Programmed Problem Procedure - Repetitive - Routine - Rules - Policies - Complex - Long Time Creative Problem solving

9. Problem Solving It is Tool Skill Process

10. To Make a Decision you Need to know: The nature of the problem. The time available. The cost of individual strategies.

11. Decision making process Experience . Watching . Trial & Errors. The scientific method of decision making. Methods of Decision Making

12. 1 2 3 4 5 Recognize and analyze the problem Gather Data Choose a solution and Take Action Determining Workable Solutions Evaluate Solutions 6 Follow Up Problem Solving process

13. Problem Solving process Recognize and analyze the problem Step 1 Working on the right problem . Analyze the cause and symptoms for the problem .

14. Blocks to problem definition Previous Learning Ambiguity Defining the problem by solution. Identifying symptoms as problems. Artificial boundaries Perceptual problems Solving the wrong problem Problem Solving process

15. Previous learning Learning influences what we see and hear . “ We have always done it that way” is one of the biggest blocks to effective analysis. The unwillingness or inability to let go of old habits can be a major stumbling block to seeing problems. Blocks to problem definition Problem Solving process

16. Problem Solving process Blocks to problem definition

17. Ambiguity Looking at the same information, two people can see different things. Not just enough to get data, they must describe the problem meaningfully . Problem Solving process Blocks to problem definition

18. Ambiguity Problem Solving process Blocks to problem definition

19. Defining the problem by solution Jumping to conclusion . Problem Solving process Blocks to problem definition

20. Identifying symptoms as problem Problem Solving process Blocks to problem definition

21. Artificial boundaries Test your assumptions about the boundaries of the problem Problem Solving process Blocks to problem definition

22. Perceptual problems Not recognising problems . Mistaken cause and effect . Problem Solving process Blocks to problem definition

23. Solving the wrong problem Problem Solving process Blocks to problem definition

24. Determining Workable Solutions Step 2 What are the alternatives Brainstorming List all the possible solution Problem Solving process

25. Decision making process Gather Data Step 3 There are data for all the stages . Obtain data by asking, observing, & studying . Be specific about who , what, when & how .

26. Evaluate Solutions Step 4 The alternatives-outcomes relationship is based on three possible conditions: Certainty Risks Uncertainty Problem Solving process

27. Choose a Solution and Take Action Step 5 Problem Solving process

28. Follow Up Step 7 Problem Solving process

29. Reasons for poor Decision Making Why people fail sometimes to take a good decision ? 1. No enough time to gather all the information 2. It is easier to stay in the same course Less time consuming Fewer risk Requires no changes 3. They are insecure 4. Afraid of change – change involves risk

30. 5. They lack the courage 6. Poor self concept 7. Over reliance on logic and ignoring the common sense or gut feeling 8. lack of experience 9. Other personality issues: Hostility Negativism Prejudgment Arrogance Poor motivation Reasons for poor Decision Making

31. 10. Poor habits Delay Digging into details Lack of delegation 11. Other personal factors: Individuals value system Individuals’ role perception What is the individual thinks others expecting of them Reasons for poor Decision Making

32. What is your problem ? Activity Divide into 3 teams. Each team will choose 1 problem from their workplace Apply the decision-making methodology and come with a solution Time allowed 15 Mins

33. Group Decision-Making

34. Methods of Group Decision Making Decision by Authority without Discussion Expert Member Decision by Authority with Discussion Consensus Majority Control Minority Control

35. Decision by authority WITHOUT discussion 1 Methods of Group Decision Making

36. Useful for simple routine decision. When group members expect the designated leader to make decision. Used when team members lack skills and information Advantages Methods of Group Decision Making Decision by authority WITHOUT discussion 1 One person is not a good resources for every decision. Advantages of group interaction are lost. Resources of other members are not used. Disadvantages

37. Decision by authority AFTER discussion 2 Methods of Group Decision Making Decision by authority WITH discussion 2

38. Uses the resources of group members. Gain benefits of group discussion. Advantages Methods of Group Decision Making Does not resolve the controversies and conflicts among group members. Create a kind of nepotism. Disadvantages Decision by authority WITH discussion 2

39. Methods of Group Decision Making Decision by Expert Members 3

40. Useful when the expertise of one person so far superior to that of all other group members. Advantages Methods of Group Decision Making It is difficult to determine who the expert is. Advantages of group interaction are lost. Resources of other members are not used. Disadvantages Decision by Expert Members 3

41. Methods of Group Decision Making Decision by Majority Control 4

42. Can be used when sufficient time is lacking for decision by consensus. When complete member commitment is not necessary of implementing decision . Advantages Methods of Group Decision Making Usually leaves an alienated minority which damages future group effectiveness. Advantages of group interaction are lost. Disadvantages Decision by Majority Control 4

43. Methods of Group Decision Making Decision by Minority 5

44. When everyone cannot meet to make a decision. When the group is under time pressure. When complete member commitment is not necessary. Advantages Methods of Group Decision Making Does not utilize the resources of many group members. Unresolved conflict may damage future group effectiveness. Disadvantages Decision by Minority 5

45. Methods of Group Decision Making Decision by Consensus 6

46. Produces an innovative, creative, and high-quality decision. Elicits commitment by all members to implement decision . Uses resources of all members Advantages Methods of Group Decision Making Takes a great deal of time and energy. Not useful in emergency situation. Disadvantages Decision by Consensus 6

47. Decision Making Styles Assessment

48. Decision Making Styles Way of Thinking High Low Rational Intuitive Tolerance for Ambiguity Analytical Conceptual Directive Behavioral

49. Directive Style Analytical Style Conceptual Style Behavioral Style People who prefer simple, clear-cut solutions to problems Make decisions quickly May consider only one or two alternatives Efficient and rational Prefer rules or procedures Decision Making Styles

50. Directive Style Analytical Style Conceptual Style Behavioral Style Complex solutions based on as much data as they can gather Carefully consider alternatives Base decision on objective, rational data Search for best possible decision based on information available Decision Making Styles

51. Directive Style Analytical Style Conceptual Style Behavioral Style More socially oriented Consider others about the problem and possible solutions Consider many broad alternatives and information Rely on information from people and systems Solve problems creatively Decision Making Styles

52. Directive Style Analytical Style Conceptual Style Behavioral Style Deep concern for others Talk to people one-on-one Understand individual feelings about the problem and possible effects. Concerned with the personal development of others Decisions to help others achieve their goals Decision Making Styles

53. صل ال 9 نقاط بأربعة خطوط مستقيمة متصلة دون رفع القلم

54. D ecision M aking

55. Decision Making Techniques

56. Pros & Cons Six Thinking Hats Decision Making Techniques

57. 1- Simple “Pros & Cons” method

58. 1- Simple “Pros & Cons” method This method can be used to evaluate a decision to be taken or not. “Pros” means the advantages, while “Cons” means the disadvantages. Giving a score from 1 to 5 to weight each Pro & Con Then add the scores for Pros & scores for Cons Compare which one will be greater If the “Pros” score, then take the decision…otherwise don’t Your scores are just estimation from your point of view and depend on your personal preferences

59. 1- Simple “Pros & Cons” method Example: I want to buy a new car instead of the old one Pros Score Cons Score Better Comfort 3 Cost outlay will mean making sacrifice 5 Lower Fuel Cost 3 Higher Insurance 3 Lower Servicing Cost 4 Disposal of old car 2 Better reliability 3 Time & hassle 2 Better for family use 5 Big Decision scare me 4 Load off my mind 2 Total 20 Total 16

60. 2- Multiplying Weights Method This simple method can be used for comparison between different proposed decisions depend upon giving weights (score from 1 to 5) to your interests… Also giving weights to each alternative regarding each interest according to your research and knowledge. Then multiplying the scores of interests by that of each alternative and add. The Alternative that scores higher is mostly the best decision

61. Multiplying Weights Example: After I’ve got my primary training in the company I’ve to work in one of those departments: Project/ Design/ Operations, I weighted each of my interest and also each choice My Interest (Weight) Alternatives Project Design Operation Career path & growth (5) 5 4 3 Incentives & Rewards (4) 4 3 4 Work Environment & staff (3) 4 5 4 Management Style (3) 5 4 4 Stability (2) 3 4 5 Enjoyable Work for me (4) 4 5 4

62. Multiplying Weights Now by multiplying scores My Interest (Weight) Alternatives Project Design Operation Career path & growth (5) 5X5 4X5 3X5 Incentives & Rewards (4) 4X4 3X4 4X4 Work Environment & staff (3) 4X3 5X3 4X3 Management Style (3) 5X3 4X3 4X3 Stability (2) 3X2 4X2 5X2 Enjoyable Work for me (4) 4X4 5X4 4X4 Total 90 87 81

63. Lateral thinking Parallel thinking 1 2 Conflicts Bad communications Creative solutions Good communications 1 2

64. Edward De Bono SIX THINKING HATS

65. Introduction Definition It’s a powerful technique helps us to look at a decision from different points of view . It helps us to move outside our ordinary ways of thinking “ parallel thinking “. D ecision M aking

66. Introduction :- Why hats ? Why 6 ? Why colors ?

67. What are the 6 colors of Hats?

68. TO BE OR NOT TO BE ? Activity Divide into 5 teams. Each team will choose 1 card . We need one presenter from each group. We will hold a meeting Time allowed 15 Mins

69. Helps you look at important decisions from several different perspectives. Reduce the resistance to change and prepared by essential contingency plans. It helps you understand the full complexity of a decision. It spots issues and opportunities which you might not notice. The Advantages

70. Suggestion for good decision making Have your goals clearly in mind or in written form before you proceed to formulate your options. Establish your priorities so that every decision contributes toward goal achievement 3. Be more creative as possible .Look for group of ideas. 4. Decision-making is simply a mental exercise which must be transferred into action. Each decision has the potential of causing a chain of reactions. Don’t be quick to reopen decisions already made. Use a simulation exercise or a trial run to determine correctness.