Markov Chain Analysis in HR Decision Making

Markov chain is one of the techniques used in operations research with possibilities view that managers faced in organizational decision making .Manpower planning process which the management determines how an Markov Chain move its current manpower position to its desired manpower position.
Through planning, management strives to have the right number and right kinds of people, at the right places at the right time, doing things which result in both the organization and individual receiving maximum long-run benefits.

1. MARKOV CHAIN ANALYSIS IN HR DECISION MAKING PRESENTED BY RAHUL ROY

2. INTRODUCTION Markov chain is one of the techniques used in operations research with possibilities view that managers faced in organizational decision making .Manpower planning process which the management determines how an Markov Chain move its current manpower position to its desired manpower position. Through planning, management strives to have the right number and right kinds of people, at the right places at the right time, doing things which result in both the organization and individual receiving maximum long-run benefits. Andrei Andreyevich Markov

3. Human Resource Planning Process Determining the Objectives of Human Resource Planning Analyzing Current Manpower Inventory Forecasting Demand and Supply of Human Resources Analyze the Manpower Gaps Employment Plan/Action Plan Training and Development Appraisal of Manpower Planning

4. Supply Forecasting 1 . External —people in the labour market not currently working for the organization, including those who are employed elsewhere and those who are unemployed who can be expected to join the organization to meet anticipated needs General Economic Condition Labour M arket Condition Occupational Market Conditions 2 . Internal —present employees who can be trained, transferred, or promoted to meet anticipated needs Skill inventories and Management inventories Replacement Charts and Replacement Summaries Succesion Plans Markov Analysis

5. Markov Analysis A method of forecasting internal labour supply that involves tracking the pattern of employee movements through various jobs and developing a transitional probability matrix. Estimating internal supply involves much more than simply calculating the number of employees. Some firms use the Markov analysis technique to track the pattern of employee movements through various jobs and develop a transitional probability matrix for forecasting internal supply by specific categories, such as position and gender.

6. Hypothetical Markov Analysis of A Manufacturing Operation Percentages represent transitions (previous year’s actuals). This analysis for a Manufacturing operation shows the actual number (and percentage) of employees who remain in each job from one year to the next, as well as the proportions promoted, demoted, transferred, and leaving the organization. These proportions (probabilities) are used to forecast human resources supply.

7. CONCLUSION Through the establishment of the improved Markov process, the human resource supply is predicted. The amount of personnel supply after many times transition is determined by the way of personnel transferring. This proposed method can provide guidance for business managers and human resource professionals. Here we see how Markov Analysis takes an important role in HR decision making

8. REFERENCES D. G. Collings and G. Wood, “Human Resource Management, a Critical Approach,” Routledge, London, 2009.     D. Torrington, L. Hall and S. Taylor, “Human Resource Management,” 6th Edition, Financial Times Prentice Hall, Harlow, 2005.      3. A. Mehlmann, “An Approach to Optimal Recruitment and Transition Strategies for Manpower Systems Using Dynamic Programming,” Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 31, No. 11, 1980, pp. 1009-1015.     4. R. Poornachandra, “A Dynamic Programming Approach to Determine Optimal Manpower Recruitment Policies,” Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 41, No. 10, 1990, pp. 983-988.     

9. THANK YOU