mathematical modelling presentation.pptx

Mathematical modelling

1. Mathematical Modeling for the Phosphate Carrying Capacity of Maneri Bhali Phase 1 and Tehri Dam of Uttarakhand Dr. Sachin

2. World Fisheries Scenario F ishes are great source of protein and essential amino acids T hey are also rich in vitamin A & B 12, calcium and omega-3 fatty acids Consumption as well as employment to economically backward rural areas . In the primary production of fish, 60 million peoples are involved directly either full time or part time A ssisting the income of 10-12% of world population (FAO, 2016).

3. World Fisheries Scenario In the production of culture fisheries India stands at second position worldwide. China ranks among the leaders of fisheries and their products . 1/3 rd of the total harvested fish and 2/3 rd of the cultivated fish produces by China (FAO, 2016). For enhancing the productivity, in a single pond more than 10 species used by China W hile in India, the combination of 3-6 species used in culture system.

4. India’s Fisheries Scenario India having 3.15 million ha of reservoirs, 2.36 million ha of ponds and tanks 0.19 million ha of rivers and canals. If we compare the fisheries with 2018, in 2019 some states of India have taken the lead.

5. Aquaculture Due to expansion of aquaculture system in recent years, There has been increased number of incidences and problems of outbreaks of fish diseases Which results in massive economic loss Some common practices followed in intensive aquaculture system are: E xcessive feeding, H igh stocking density These practices provide suitable environment for the growth of various pathogens

6. Aquaculture Effluents Most of the effluents from aquaculture come from diets and From excess feed not consumed during feeding, resulting in solid and dissolved wastes The release of Phosphorus (P) in continental waterbodies (freshwater) are more alarming Because this nutrient is usually a limiting factor for plant growth. 32% of P is used for the metabolism of fish, and Remaining 68% are transferred to the environment ( Guilherme et al., 2017).

7. Phosphorus Phosphorus, like nitrogen, is a critical nutrient required for all life. The most common form of phosphorus used by biological organism is phosphate Which plays major role in the formation of DNA, cellular energy and cell membrane Phosphorus is also a common ingredient in commercial fertilizers.

8. Why it is important to evaluate Phosphorus ? High concentration of phosphorus may result from poor agricultural practices, runoff from urban areas and lawns, leaking septic systems or discharges from sewage treatment plants. Too much phosphorus can cause increased growth of algae and large aquatic plants, Which can result in decreased levels of dissolved oxygen-eutrophication. High levels of phosphorus can also lead to algae blooms that produce algal toxins Which can be harmful to human and animal health.

9. What can Phosphorus tell us about the condition of water ? In appropriate quantities, phosphorus can be used by vegetation and soil microbes for normal growth. However, since phosphorus generally occurs in small quantities in the natural environment, Even small increases can negatively affects water quality and biological condition.

10. Carrying capacity Carrying capacity is the amount of maximum quantity of fish which be able to be carried by flushing time, water resource volume, and wastes amount in the water works (Kenchington,1984 ). Carrying capacity can be broken down into 4 types: Physical carrying capacity Production carrying capacity Ecological carrying capacity Social carrying capacity The final carrying capacity can then be calculated using a computer mode of the ecosystem and a mass balanced model.

11. Carrying capacity Maintain the threshold limit of environment (Ross et al ., 2013). The biggest concern for aquaculture is the waste generated by them due to: Feed Chemicals Pathogens Solid wastes Suspended solids Settled solids Dissolved wastes

12. Carrying capacity The strategy used by regulatory and management authorities to adopt the hydrodynamic models Calculate carrying capacity and nutrient load capacity of a specific water body A hydrodynamic model uses a numerical approximation It is a physically-based model. For Example: Hydrodynamic model of Dhillon & Rigler Ideal approach for feeding and waste circulation.

13. Aim T here are several fresh water resources in Uttarakhand . The prominent M ahseer , S nowtrout , C heetals and B arils are present in these aquatic reservoir . Phosphorus is nutrient that is natural part of aquatic ecosystem Significant increase in phosphorus harm water quality, food resources and habitats, and decrease the oxygen that fish and other aquatic life need to survive. So if we can calculate the threshold limit of phosphate in water bodies it will enhance the commercial fisheries production.

14. Objectives In this paper we used the water level of dams during different seasons in a year and the variation in concentration of Phosphate [Pi] for mathematical calculation of total [Pi] carrying capacity which can be correlated to the extent to which the fisheries expansion can be carried out at these locations and indirectly assess the potential of fisheries at these locations.

15. Methods Study Site. Maneri dam The Maneri Dam is a concrete gravity dam built on the Bhagirathi river located at Maneri , east of Uttarkashi district of Uttarakhand in India. The height of the dam is 39m (128ft), and length is 127m (417ft). The surface area of the dam is 1.8 Km 2 having total capacity of 600,000 m 3 (486 acre ft.) The installed hydro-capacity of the dam is 90 MW . Fig. 1 . Terrain image of Maneri dam

16. Tehri dam Tehri dam is an earth and rock filled embankment dam on Bhagirathi river near Tehri in Uttarakhand . Tehri dam is the tallest dam in India while fifth tallest in the world. The height of the dam is 260.5 mt. (855 ft.), having length 1886 ft. and width 3701 ft. Tehri dam having surface area 52 Km 2 with total capacity 4.0 cubic kilometer. The installed hydro-capacity of the dam is 1000 W. Fig 2 . Terrain image of Tehri dam

17. Physicochemical parameters of water at both locations The main reason to study chemical, physical parameters of water is to examine its nutrient status. Since, the water having suspended and dissolved materials in many amounts I ts chemical and physical parameters differ along with its biological properties. There are other reasons also due to which water is affected like pollutants and A ct on elements present in water for e.g. dissolved oxygen and P roduces nitrate, ammonia etc.

18. Height Length Total capacity Surface area Installed hydrocapacity Amount of phosphate mg/l Amount of Nitrate mg/l 39 m (128 ft) 127 m (417 ft) 600,000 m 3 (486 acre⋅ft) 1.8 km 2 (1 sq mi) 90 MW 0.0366 (clean), 0.068 (slight pollution), 0.0654 (severe pollution) 0.315 (clean), 0.246 (slight pollution), 0.0532 (severe pollution) Table 2 . Showing details of Maneri dam with minimum and maximum phosphate and nitrate level. Source : ( Semwal et al ., 2006). Maneri Dam

19. Height Length Base width Total capacity Surface area Installed hydrocapacity Amount of phosphate (min) mg/l Amount of phosphate (max) mg/l Amount of Nitrate (min) mg/l Amount of Nitrate (max) mg/l 260.5 m (855 ft) 1886 ft 3701 ft 4.0 cubic kilometre (3,200,000 acre ft) 52 km square (20 sq. miles) 1000 MW 0.03 (February)       Amount of Phosphorus in river- 0.02     Amount of Phosphorus in reservoir- 0.02 (a study by NEERI) 1.14 (April)       Amount of Phosphorus in river- 5.6   Amount of Phosphorus in reservoir- 4.5 (a study by NEERI) 0.25 (February)     Amount of Nitrogen in river- 0.6 Amount of Nitrogen in reservoir- 0.8 (a study by NEERI)   1.19 (June)       Amount of Nitrogen in river- 4.0 Amount of Nitrogen in reservoir- 4.6 (a study by NEERI)   Table 3 . Showing details of Tehri dam with minimum and maximum phosphate and nitrate level Source : (Agarwal et al ., 2010) Tehri Dam

20. National Register of Large Dam India’s National Register of Large Dams (NRLD) has been updated time to time by the Central Water Commission of India’s Union Ministry of water resources. According to NRLD figure 3 showing the list of all the dams that are constructed and under-construction in Uttarakhand . We focus in this paper mainly on Maneri and Tehri dam and T he data that is mentioned in the figure 3 were used for calculation in mathematical model.

21. Mathematical model. The Vollen -Weider model has been used in this research which has been modified by Dillon and Rigler (1974 ). In the fish production carrying capacity analysis model made by Dillon and Rigler ( Trisla et al ., 2016), T here are total 4 steps:

22. Step1: The measurement of steady state of phosphate concentration [P] i , that can be determined by the mean of minimum value of total phosphorus in waters from some samples . Step2: Determine maximum [P]f that can be determined by the mean of peak value of total phosphorus in waters from some samples.

23. Step3: the capacity of aquatic for fish in accepting phosphorus or total P concentration (∆ [P]) is determined, with the formula: ∆[P]= [P]f-[P] i Determine the Phosphate retention coefficient R for reservoir Where, is the ratio between average and maximum flow volume of reservoir

24. The amount of phosphate produces by fish Capacity of pollution load by fish in reservoir Where, z is the ratio between volume and area of the water body.

25. Step4: Total carrying capacity of fish production in the reservoir allowed maximum pollution load can be determined by Where , A is width for the reservoir

26. Name of Dam z R R f L f TC Cap Tehri 3.723 0.6662 0.000005 0.9985 0.9992 0.0155 555.413 Maneri 249.3943 0.000076 0.0098 0.9337 0.9668 0.0056 21.375 Table 4. Showing maximum pollution load Result

27. Discussion On the basis of the given data in table 4 T he maximum pollution load capacity of Tehri dam is 555.413 ton. Year -1 W hile the maximum pollution load capacity of Maneri dam is 21.375 ton. Year -1 As this is a huge number, it means that even if we operate at half the maximum value, there is huge potential still available to develop commercial fisheries at these locations.

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