NATO & The Arctic presentation about nato

nato

1. NATO & The Arctic Dr. Allie Chase University of Michigan Debate Institutes 2025

2. Things you will know @ the end of this lecture NATO Basics Trump’s impact on NATO NATO’s History, Role, and Ambitions in the Arctic Challenges Consult NATO CP (if we have time)

3. What is NATO? - North Atlantic Treaty Organization -Military Alliance -32 member states

4. NATO: Why & How WWII was ending and Roosevelt had goals to loop Moscow into a durable, peaceful post-war order but he died w/o telling Truman Washington Treaty, 1949

5. Original 12 US, UK, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal Cold War Adds: Greece, Turkey, West Germany, Spain

6. 1989-1990 -Fall of Berlin Wall → Reunified Germany -Lots of pro-democracy energy -Moscow wanted “no NATO and no nukes” in exchange for German reunification

7. “ to hell with that”

8. The Right Time for NATO Enlargement 1990s Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland 2004 Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia 2009-2024 Albania, Croatia , Montenegro, North Macedonia Finland & Sweden

9. NATO - Current Stats Largest # military personnel = US 2nd largest = Turkey Largest % GDP spent = Poland @ 4.12 % 3rd largest % of GDP = US @ 3.38% Largest # military aircraft = US # of times Article 5 has been triggered? —When?

10. Review Why does NATO exist? How many counties are in NATO? Questions about NATO fundamentals?

11. Preview How might the Trump presidency impact NATO’s functioning?

12. Trump & NATO - some common takes “NATO was set up when we were a richer country. We're not a rich country ," Trump said. "We're borrowing, we're borrowing all of this money. We're borrowing money from China, which is a sort of an amazing situation. But things are a much different thing."

13. “I took such heat, when I said NATO was obsolete. It's obsolete because it wasn't taking care of terror. I took a lot of heat for two days.” “I complained about that a long time ago, and they made a change—and now they do fight terrorism…I said it was obsolete. It's no longer obsolete." “I said, 'You didn't pay. You're delinquent…No, I would not protect you, In fact, I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want." “Look, if they’re not going to pay, we’re not going to protect. OK?”

14. Pete Hegseth - What do we know this guy for?

15. NATO Summit - June 24-25 -Agreed to increase in spending - 5% GDP -Will be reviewed in 2029 -Reaffirmed A5 -Big supporters: Poland, Finland, UK -“Make NATO Great Again” - Lithuania - Trump asserts allegiance to NATO as a result BUT ALSO SAID r egarding A5 “It depends on your definition. There are numerous definitions of Article 5…I’m committed to being their friends”

16. Spain Did not agree to 5%, sticking with 2% Called the spending target “unreasonable” Trump’s response – “They want to stay at 2%. I think it’s terrible,” he said. “You know, what we’re going to do? We’re negotiating with Spain on a trade deal. We’re going to make them pay twice as much.” “there’s a problem with Spain. Spain is not agreeing”

17. The real news Rutte called Trump “daddy”

18. Questions/Comments about the Trump Section

19. NATO & The Arctic US Canada Denmark Iceland Norway Finland Sweden “NATO will defend its interests in the Arctic. We have a responsibility to protect all our Allies, including the seven here in this region. And we want to uphold the international rules-based order, which includes freedom of navigation” -Chair of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer

20. What is NATO protecting the allies from? What is the security challenge??

21. Russian Arctic Supremacy

22. NATO has always been concerned with the Arctic -7 Arctic countries -1991-Feb 2022, things were calm - What happened in Feb 2022?

23. Russia Invades Ukraine -Largest European war since WWII -Hundreds of thousands of casualties -Millions displaced → refugee crisis - Huge environmental impact -Finland/Sweden join NATO

24. The war in “ Ukraine has irreparably changed the security landscape of both Europe and the Arctic” (Bykova 2024)

25. Finland/Sweden = NATO Expansion Russia does not like NATO expansion! Fear of “encirclement” has been validated → Dr. Bricker pointed out why - what did he say? Justifies Putin planning for confrontation in the region Brinkmanship, military exercises, electronic warfare Miscalculation

26. Importance of Arctic to Russia Source of economic and symbolic pride Long history: expeditions as early as the 16th century, ramped up during Soviet era, Soviet “polar theaters” → displacement of indigenous community, children in state-run schools → lots of infrastructure projects

27. The Dead Road & The Belomor Canal

28. The Polar Wolf Penal Colony

29. Current Investments 20% GDP Oil and natural gas Northern Sea Routes Kola Peninsula/Northern Fleet Geopolitics Symbolism

30. Kola Peninsula & Northern Fleet (more detail in Russia Lecture)

31. Concerns that NATO is currently “reactive” in the Arctic “The current US Arctic Strategy insufficiently counters Russian and Chinese strategic Arctic ambitions” (Murkins 2024) 53% of coastline controlled by Russia NATO lacks official policy Russia-China Alliance Naval power projection Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Climate change Melting ice Increased access to REE’s Easier for ships to navigate

32. NewNew Polar Bear

33. Some argue US/NATO already proactive -US launched first Arctic icebreaker in 25 years, USCGC Storis -Polar Security Cutters otw (but several years delayed)

34. “The Arctic is not a pickup game and requires tailored systems, training, and tactics” (CSIS 2024) Inhospitable weather conditions The Polar Night Lack of robust communications infrastructure in the region Lack of specialized ships & trained personnel

35. Consult NATO CP

36. The United States federal government ought to enter prior, binding consultation with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization over [the plan] and then the USFG should [do the plan]. Why would this be a good idea?

37. US doesn’t have what it takes, can’t do alone. NATO better prepared in Arctic. Coordinating w/NATO countries good idea in case of crisis Strong, cohesive NATO good for solving a lot of things - China, climate change, terrorism, etc.

38. How would the aff answer this CP? PDB PDCP Say No NATO - ineffective and/or bad