New Market Economics: A Case for Outer Space _ PPT

NASA economic policy has brought a New Space economy of commercialization and investment by way of public-private partnerships. The presentation discusses the transition of the space economy to a market focus. How public subsidies "Make-the-Market" is analyzed.

9. GLOBAL NATIONAL SPACE AGENCY FISCAL SPENDING FY20 –FY21 ($B)0
10
20
30
40
50
60
United States
China France Russia Japan
Germany
India Italy
United Kingdom
South Korea
European Union
FY20 ($B)
FY21 ($B)

10. TOTAL U.S. SPACE ECONOMY OUTPUT FY11 –FY19 ($M)160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
185,000
190,000
195,000
20122013201420152016201720182019
Total US Space Econony Output FY12 - FY19 ($M)

11. PUBLIC FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT AND SPACE ECONOMY SUBSIDIZATION
NASA FISCAL BUDGET FY21 –FY27 ($M)0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2021202220232024202520262027
Aeronautics ($M)
Construction, Environmental Compliance and Restoration ($M)
Deep Space Exploration Systems($M)
NASA Total ($M)
Safety, Security and Mission Services ($M)
Science ($M)
Space Operations ($M)
Space Technology ($M)
STEM Engagement ($M) 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2021202220232024202520262027
Aeronautics ($M)
Construction, Environmental Compliance and Restoration ($M)
Deep Space Exploration Systems ($M)
NASA Total ($M)
Safety, Security and Mission Services ($M)
Science ($M)
Space Operations 9$M)
Space Technology ($M)
STEM Engagement ($M)

12. TIME SERIES LS REGRESSION ANALYSIS
NASA CONTRACT FISCAL SUBSIDIES, FY13 –FY22 (Q1)
y = PTVA, x = independent variables (CTVA, TDO, FAO, BAOV, BEOV) 4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1,000,0003,000,0005,000,000
PTVA
FAO
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1,000,0003,000,0005,000,000
PTVA
B
A
O
V
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1,000,0003,000,0005,000,000
PTVA
B
E
O
V
1,600,000
2,000,000
2,400,000
2,800,000
3,200,000
3,600,000
4,000,000
4,400,000
4,800,000
1,000,0003,000,0005,000,000
PTVA
C
T
V
A
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1,000,0003,000,0005,000,000
PTVA
TDO

14. ARTEMIS MISSION LIFECYCLE COSTS FY12 –FY25 ($M)0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Advanced Exploration Systems ($M)
Exloration Ground Systems ($M)
Exploration R&D ($M)
Exploration Systems Development ($M)
Extravehicular Spacesuit Development ($M)
Gateway ($M)
Human Landing System ($M)
Lunar Discovery & Exploration Program ($M)
Mission Support($M)
Orion ($M)

17. NASA BUDGET SECTION:
DEEP SPACE EXPLORATION CONTRACTS, FY13 –FY22 (Q1) ($M)0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2021202220232024202520262027
Aeronautics ($M)
Construction, Environmental Compliance and Restoration ($M)
Deep Space Exploration Systems ($M)
NASA Total ($M)
Safety, Security and Mission Services ($M)
Science ($M)
Space Operations 9$M)
Space Technology ($M)
STEM Engagement ($M)

18. NASA CONTRACT SUBSIDIES FY14 –FY22 (Q1) ($M)0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Total Dollars Obligated ($M)
Potential Total Value of Award ($M)
Federal Action Obligation ($M)
Current Total Value of Award ($M)
Base and Exercised Options Value ($M)
Base and All Options Value ($M)

19. SIMULATED NASA PRICING STRUCTURE MODEL
NASA CONTRACTRECORD
y= Price (P) (in millions), x = Fiscal Variables
Year 1 Year 2
Full PassFull Pass1.5% 2%
Mvg.
Avg.
Total
Price
Form
Price (1) 2090143
6
2299158
0
2299158
0
252907382655527
5
2921080
2
Growth 10%
(Fixed)
10 10 10 5 10
Taxes 9% (2) 188112920692422414116 278198123899753067134
Inflation 1% (3)209014229916574790 758722265553730270
Insurance Prem
12% (4) 250817225290743103863 354070331866333943458
Contract Price
[(1)+(2)+(3)+(4)]2549975
2
2781981
1
2908434
9
32372144.
6
3239743
5
3695166
5
Yr. % Change 8% 4% 100% 0% 12%

25. DEAL ANALYSIS
SPACEX CAPITAL FUNDRAISING FY18 –FY22 YTD0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Acquisition ($M)
Asset Transaction ($M)
Equity Offering ($M)
Partnership ($M)
Private Equity ($M)
Venture Financing ($M)
Deal
Type
(Val)
2018
(US$m)
2019
(US$m)
2020
(US$m)
2021
(US$m)
2022
YTD
(US$m)
Venture
Financin
g
25,02632,99637,89385,88825,583
Acquisit
ion
118,674149,072102,41376,57022,652
Equity
Offering
27,25330,30680,36761,688 7,424
Asset
Transact
ion
11,033 8,38018,140 9,288 1,960
Partners
hip
2,072 727 534 3,551 560
Private
Equity
11,68012,12225,83851,45820,163

26. GLOBAL COMMERCIAL SATELLITE INDUSTRY DEALS VALUE ($M)
FY18 –FY22 (Q2) YTD0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Acquisition ($M)
Asset Transaction ($M)
Debt Offering ($M)
Equity Offering ($M)
Merger ($M)
Partnership ($M)
Private Equity ($M)
Venture Financing ($M) 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Acquisition
Asset Transaction
Debt Offering
Equity Offering
Merger
Partnership
Private E quity
Venture Financing

27. GLOBAL COMBINED AEROSPACE AND SATELLITE INDUSTRY DEALS VALUE
FY18 –FY22 (Q2)YTD0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Acquisition ($M)
Asset Transaction ($M)
Debt Offering ($M)
Equity Offering ($M)
Merger ($M)
Partnership ($M)
Private Equity ($M)
Venture Financing ($M) 20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Acquisition
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Asset Transaction
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Debt Offering
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Equity Offering
-4,000
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
Merger
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
Partnership
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Private Equity
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Venture Financing

29. AEROSPACE, SATELLITE AND SPACE SECURITIES MARKET
CLOSING PRICES ($ ACTUAL) 2012 –20220
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
AJRD ARKX ASTC
ASTR BA BKSY
GOGO GRMN HON
GSAT LHX LMT
MAXR MNTS MOON
NOC PL RKLB
ROKT SATS SIRI
SPCE TDY SPCX
TRMB UFO VORB
VSAT VYGR

30. AEROSPACE, SATELLITE AND SPACE SECURITIES MARKET VOLUME 2012 –20220
1000
2000
3000
4000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
AJRD ARKX ASTC
ASTR BA BKSY
GOGO GRMN GSAT
HON LHX LMT
MAXR MNTS MOON
NOC PL RKLB
SATS ROKT SIRI
SPCE SPCX TDY
TRMB UFO VORB
VSAT VYGR

31. STANDARD DEVIATION OF SAPCE STOCK PORTFOLIO, RISK-FREE RATE (Rf) ADJUSTED MEAN
AVERAGE RETURNS $0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
AJRD
ARKX
ASTR ASTC BKSY
BA
MOON
SATS
GRMN
GSAT
GOGO
HON LHX LMT
MAXR
MNTS
NOC
PL
UFO
RKLB
SIRI
SPCX
ROKT
TDY
TRMB VSAT
SPCE
VORB VYGR
Standard Deviation
Closing Price

32. A “GOOD FIT” MODEL OF SIMULATED SPACE STOCK PORTFOLIO VALUE-AT-RISK (VaR)
COMPARISON OF CAPM MARKET RISK PREMIUM AND NORMALIZED RISK PREMIUM, RISK ADJUSTED
RETURNS, y = Return %, x = Ticker-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
AJRD
ARKX
ASTR ASTC BKSY
BA
MOON
SATS
GRMN
GSAT
GOGO
HON LHX LMT
MAXR
MNTS
NOC
PL
UFO
RKLB
SIRI
SPCX
ROKT
TDY
TRMB VSAT
SPCE
VORB VYGR
Normalized Equity Risk Premium
Market Risk Premium

33. SPACE STOCK PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYSIS WITH CHI SQUARE,
y = Standard Deviation (SD), X = Expected Rate of Return (ERR) -80
-40
0
40
80
120
160
-2 -1 0 1
ERR
SD

34. EFFICIENT FRONTIER ESTIMATION OF SPACE STOCK PORTOLIO SIMULATION WITH
CAL, CML, SML COMPARISON