Operational research ppt

A PPT on Operational Research for presentation in a Community Medicine department in Jorhat medical College

1. Operational Research Presenter Dr Dhruba jyoti Bora PGT ,Community Medicine Moderator: Dr Ajay Bhushan Nath Associate Prof. Community Medicine Jorhat Medical College

2. Learning objectives Introduction Brief history of Operational Research Stages of development of OR Relationship between OR and Management Tools and technique Applications of OR Limitations of OR Summary

3. Introduction Operational Research( OR ) is relatively a new discipline OR become a professional discipline, deals with application of scientific methods for making decisions specially to allocate scare resources It takes tools from different discipline such as mathematics, statistics, economics, psychology etc

4. British / Europeans uses “operational research” , American uses “operations research” (“OR”) Another term uses for this field “ management science” (MS) and sometimes OR/MS and ORMS is also used Other similar terms used are “industrial engineering”(“IE”) and “decision science”(“DS”)

5. Definitions Operational research is the attack of modern science on complex problems arising in the direction and management of large systems of man, machines ,material and money in industry, business, government and defence OR is the application of scientific methods to improve the effectiveness of operations, decisions and management (R Robinson)

6. “ a scientific method of providing executive departments with a quantitative basis for decisions regarding the operations under their control” ( Morse and Kimball) OR is the art of giving bad answers to the problems which otherwise have worse answers” ( Saaty )

7. OR is applied decision theory, which uses any scientific, mathematical or logical means to attempt to cope with problems that confront the executive, when he tries to achieve a through going rationally in dealing with his decision problem (Miller and Starr)

8. OR is scientific methodology which by assessing the overall implication of various alternative courses of action in a management system provides an important basis for management decision( Pocock )

9. History of Operational Research The concept of Operational Research began in late 1930’s in a systemic fashion in the UK The term was coined by AP Rowe, the superintendent of Bawdsey Research station Initially they analyse the loss of fighter jets and replacement rates in world war II Gradually , they uses it in various military operations in WW-II

10. Post WW-II OR spread indifferent ways in UK and USA in different sectors following WW-II 1951- OR committee formed by National research council of USA 1952- Operations Research Society of America 1949- first OR unit in India was established in RRL, Hyderabad 1955– Operations Research Society of India was formed

11. Goals of operational research To provide information to program managers for making decisions efficiently to improve their program operations To help managers to decide alternative courses of actions For optimizing resource allocation and mobilization To study the quality of care

12. Nature of operational research Research technique to diagnose and correct operational problem Pilot project to demonstrate new approaches Evaluation of ongoing programmes Experimental efforts to test different activities

13. Stages of development of OR Observe the problem environment Analyze and define the problem Develop a model Select appropriate data input Provide a solution and test for reasonableness Implement the solution

14. Observe the problem environment Different activities like conference, site visit, review of records and observation These activities provide sufficient information to formulate the problem

15. Analyze and define the problem In addition to the problem definition, the objectives, research questions , uses and limitations are also defined Output of this step are clear grasp of need for a solution and its nature understanding

16. Develop a model A model is a representation of some abstract or real situation Models are basically mathematical models, which describe systems, processes in the form of equations, formula/ relationship Activities are variable definitions, formulating equations Models are tested in the field under different environmental constraint and modified

17. Select appropriate data input A model works appropriately when there is appropriate data input Activities are internal/external data analysis, fact analyses, collection of opinions, use of computer data banks Objective of this step is to provide sufficient data input to operate and test the model developed

18. Provide a solution A solution is formulated with the help of the model and input data Testing of model is done for finding limitations and drawback Model is updated and modified at this stage Output of this stage is the solution , that supports the current organizational objectives

19. Implement the solution Implementation of the solution involves many behavioural issues Before implementation, the authorities has to resolve the issues Properly implemented solution results in quality of work and gain support from management

20. Process activities process Process output Site visit , conference Observation, research Observe the problem environment Sufficient information and support to proceed Define ; use , objective and limitations Analyze and define the problem Clear grasp of need for and nature of solution requested Define interrelationships, formulate equations, use known OR model, search for alternate model Develop a model Models that works under stated environment constraint Analyze: internal/ external data, collect options, use computer data banks Select appropriate data input Sufficient inputs to operate and test model Test models Find limitations Update the model Provide a solution and test its reasonableness Solutions that support current organizational goals Resolve behavioral issue Sell idea Implement the solution Improved working and management support for longer run operation of model

21. HBNC model Bag and co-workers demonstrated HBNC to address neonatal mortality in Gadchiroli , Maharashtra (1993-2003) They took 39 intervention and 47 control village for the study Capacity building of village level workers to detect common neonatal problems Repeated home visits by HW in pre determined schedule

22. They successfully demonstrated the significant decline in NMR and IMR in the intervention village Two more project– Ankur project through NGO (2001-2005) and ICMR multicentric study Similar success achieved in these studies leads to adoption of HBNC model by policy makers to few other districts

23. Relationship between manager and OR specialist Key responsibility of manger is decision making Role of the OR specialist is to help the manager make better decisions

24. Job responsibility

25. OR Tools and Techniques Linear programming Game theory Decision theory Queuing theory Inventory model Simulation Makov analysis

26. Linear programming  Linear programming is a simple technique where we  depict  complex relationships through linear functions and then find the optimum points  The real relationships might be much more complex – but we can simplify them to linear relationships

27. Example a chocolate manufacturing company that produces only two types of chocolate – A and B Each unit of A requires 1 unit of Milk and 3 units of  Choco Each unit of B requires 1 unit of Milk and 2 units of  Choco  company kitchen has a total of 5 units of Milk and 12 units of Choco Per unit profit in unit A Rs 5 and unit B Rs 6

28. solution Let the total number of units A produced = X Let the total number of units B produced = Y Now, the total profit is represented by Z Z= 5X+6Y X+Y ≤ 5, 3x+2Y ≤ 12 Constraint X ≥ 0 and Y ≥0

29. Game theory A game is a generic term, involving conflict situation of particular sort Game theory is a set of tools and techniques for decision under uncertainty involving two or more intelligent party known as player

30. Game theory is a theoretical framework for conceiving social situations among competing players and producing optimal decision making John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern were the key pioneer In real-world scenarios, for such situations as pricing competition and product releases can be laid out and their outcomes predicted

31. the focus of game theory is the game, which serves as a model of an interactive situation among rational players The game identifies the players' identities, preferences, and available strategies and how these strategies affect the outcome Game theory has a wide range of applications, including psychology, war, politics, economics, and business. 

32. Game : Any set of circumstances that has a result dependent on the actions of two or more decision-makers (players) Players : A strategic decision-maker within the context of the game Strategy : A complete plan of action a player will take given the set of circumstances that might arise within the game Payoff :   The payout a player receives from arriving at a particular outcome

33. Decision theory Decision theory is an interdisciplinary approach to arrive at the decisions that are the most advantageous given an uncertain environment

34. Decision theory brings together psychology, statistics, philosophy, and mathematics to analyze the decision-making process Descriptive, prescriptive, and normative are three main areas of decision theory and each studies a different type of decision making.

35. Types of decision Strategic decision : concerned with external environment of the organization Administrative decision : concerned with structuring and acquisition of the organization resource Operating decision : concerned with day to day operations of the organization

36. Related to decision Goals to be achieved- objectives The decision maker- individual/ organization Courses of action- action/ alternative States of nature-possible future events

37. Types of environment Decision making under certainty under risk under uncertainty

38. Queuing theory It the mathematical study of congestion and delays of waiting in line Extremely useful in predicting and evaluating system performance Key elements of queuing systems are customer and server

39. Examples system customers server Reception desk people receptionist hospital patients Nurses/ receptionist airport airplanes runway Road network cars Traffic light grocery shoppers checkout computer jobs CPU, Disk, CD

40. The theory can help with creating an efficient and cost-effective workflow, allowing the user to improve traffic flow Assesses two key aspects—customer arrival at the facility and service requirements Queuing theory can address staffing, scheduling, and customer service shortfalls.

41. Queuing theory helps in the design of balanced systems that serve customers quickly and efficiently, but do not cost too much to be sustainable Queues are not necessarily a negative aspect of business More efficient queuing system leads to reduce customer wait time and increase the number of customers that can be served

42. Inventory model Inventory is the stock of any items or resource used in an organization The objective of inventory management has to keep enough inventories to meet customer demand and also be cost effective One basic problem of inventory management is to find out the order quantity so that it is most economical from overall operational point of view

43. Two major costs associated with inventory are procurement cost and inventory carrying cost Problem lies in minimizing the two conflicting costs, i.e. ordering cost and inventory carrying cost Inventory models help to find out the order quantity which minimizes the total costs

44. Inventory model pic

45. Simulation Simulation  is the process of designing a model of a real system and conducting experiments with this model for the purpose of understanding the behavior of the system and evaluating various strategies In this process, an abstract representation (a model) is created to represent important aspects of the real world

46. Simulation Purpose of simulation is to understand behavior of a system Simulation is done to ensure that whether we are doing the right thing Simulation is done when actual experimentation is not feasible

47. advantages Solve problems that are difficult or impossible to solve mathematically Less risk to the actual system Compress time to show long term effect Serves as a training tool for decision makers limitations Does not produce optimum solution Model development may be difficult Computer run time may be substantial

48. Markov model It is a stochastic model used in randomly changing systems where it is assumed that future states depends only on present state and not on the sequence of events that preceded it Assumption enables reasoning and computation with the model that would otherwise be intractable

49. Markov analysis Markov analysis is a method used to forecast the value of a variable whose predicted value is influenced only by its current state, not by any prior activity The primary advantages of Markov analysis are simplicity and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy.

50. Markov analysis is not very useful for explaining events, and it cannot be the true model of the underlying situation in most cases Markov analysis is useful for financial speculators, especially momentum investors.

51. Applications of Operational Research Accounting . Human resource Construction . purchasing Public Health . R &D Facilities planning Finance Manufacturing Marketing

52. OR in public health The mission of public health is to assure the conditions in which people can be healthy This mission is accomplished by the application of public health science in public health services

53. Composition of OR team in public health A public Health Administrator An epidemiologist A mathematician A statistician A social scientist

54. Process of OR in public health 1. Formulation of the problem 2. Collection of data 3. Analysis and hypothesis formulation 4. Deriving solutions from the models 5.Choosing the optimal solution and forecasting Results 6.Test the results 7. Recommending implementation

55. Uses in public health Identify and solve the problems of program in timely manner Helps policy maker and program manager to make evidence based program decision Improve program quality and performance by using scientifically valid methods

56. Examples of DOTS Goal is to improve the diagnosis and treatment of TB by translating the results of research into policy and practice NTI, Bangalore demonstrated the efficacy & feasibility of case detection by SS microscopy TB centre Chennai, demonstrated the efficiency and safety of home treatment of TB and effectiveness of intermittent chemotherapy

57. Other examples of OR Promotion of institutional delivery by setting up delivery rooms in PHC and HSC Enhance the coverage and quality of MCH services by integration of health and ICDS Public private partnership in health care delivery HBNC for reduction of neonatal mortality

58. Organizations International federation of operational research society ( IFORS) Operational research society of India (ORSI) Institute for operations research and the management science (INFOMS) Centre for operations research and training (CORT)

59. Limitations of Operations Research Distance between OR specialist and manager Magnitude of calculations Money and time costs Non-quantifiable factors implementation

60. Summary Operational research gaining acceptance day by day because it improve decision making effectiveness of managers Almost all the areas of business use the operations research for decision making

61. Reference Hamdy A Taha , 1999. Introduction to Operations Research, PHI Limited, New Delhi Sharma, J.K., 1989. Mathematical Models in Operations Research, Tata McGraw Hill Publishing Company Ltd., New Delhi Malhotra S, Zodpey SP. Operation research in public health.IJPH2010;54(3):146-149 K Park, Text Book of Preventive and Social Medicine,25 th edition : 932-935

62. THANK YOU