Oracle Demantra - Demand Planning Overview

Oracle Demantra - Demand Planning Overview , Oracle Value Chain Planning, Forecasting

1. Demantra Demand Planning Overview Mihir Jhaveri

2. Index What Demantra brings in? How problems can be solved? Standard process 2

3. Actual Reality about-Demand Planning

4. Demand Management: Most of Planners feel….. Difficult to aggregate forecasting at multiple levels Category Level/Family Level/Product Level/Customer Level ..and more.. Long forecasting cycles – End-to-End cycles are time confusing Batch Process – real time information is not present Forecast accuracy- Poor forecast accuracy leads to unsatisfied customers Not scalable :- most companies don’t know how to deal with increased number of customers and opportunties Factors – its difficult to apply seasonality and other factors 4

5. Too many version s of the same forecast is present Revenue Planning is being done offline / manually Manual Efforts require to collate the data such as shipment history, backlog. Lacks the ability to archive various forecasts No visibility of off-cycle forecast changes Different departments forecast in different units of measure, and thus cannot be merged to have a single demand plan – Marketing: % of market share by brand – Sales: revenue by customer/territory – Finance: Revenue and net profits per quarter – Supply Chain: SKU by ship-to location (advanced) 5 Demand Management: Most of Planners feel….. continue..

6. End this is what happens

7. Near Accurate …can lead to Opportunities Improved reporting at all levels of an organization Better measurement and metrics Feed the best forecast to plan and generate commitment plan back from ASCP Ability to capture multiple forecasts and compare Enable Statistical forecasting Monitoring of demand forecast at multiple levels More accurate demand forecast Ability to provide better & fast supply dates for changes/enquiries Easy delegation/approval process thru workflow Role base security to avoid sharing of unnecessary data

8. Introducing Oracle Demantra

9. Demantra’s End-to-End Solution Shape Demand Understand Demand Respond to Demand Plan for Demand Demand Management Trade Promotion Management Real-Time Sales and Operations Planning Business Process Platform

10. Demantra: Forecasting Capabilities Statistical forecasting using Causal factors Inbuilt New product introduction Mapping Unlimited Hierarchies , Dimensions, Levels and Attributes Mixed/Multiple Demand Signals Ability to measure/track the past performance Bayesian Collaboration 10

11. Oracle Demantra – Causal Forecasting Estimating techniques based on the assumption that the variable to be forecast (dependent variable) has cause-and-effect relationship with one or more other (independent) variables.

12. Reaction to Market Demantra can sense the causal factors and catalysts for demand change and apply them for future demands It has a unique capability of separating trends & cycles from the causal factors

13. Granular Analysis From “what happened” … To comprehensive understanding of promotion impact TPR Display Net lift Baseline TPR Display Gross lift

14. Demantra: S&OP 14 Actual Shipments Promotional Execution In-Flight Consumption Data Sales Marketing Manufacturing Finance Executive Product Develop- ment Consensus Promotional & Volume Plans Strategic Plans Capacity Plans PhaseIn/Phase Out Products Demand Plans Profitability Service Levels Inventory Levels Promotion Effectiveness Plan Accuracy Alerts Exceptions Inputs Outputs Real-time

15. EBS Planning Footprint Demantra Predictive Trade Planning and Optimization Sales and Operations Planning Demand Management Demand Chain Planning Oracle APS Strategic Network Design Inventory Optimization Adv. Supply Planning Supply Chain Planning Global Order Promising Collaborative Planning Production Scheduling Supply Chain Execution E-Business Suite EBS ERP CRM Seamless Integration

16. Excellent Offline Capabilities Oracle Demantra anywhere Dynamic Open Link to Excel and other BI tools Consensus Planning Reporting & analysis Collaboration Platform - alerts & exceptions 16 Other capabilities

17. Projection Workbook Manual Supply Plan Used in Production Oracle CONSUMPTION ASCP Supply Plan2 Excel Adjustment Files by demand Class Demand Management – AS IS

18. Demantra What would you see in it?

19. Responding to Demand Who’s online from your collaboration group User defined Realtime KPI’s Workflow and Exception based Tasks and Alerts User Defined CPFR Worksheets Realtime Status Information

20. Analytics To Understand Demand

21. 21 Sales Input Sales Accuracy For Incentives Key Account Plan Information Account Trade and Consumer Promotions Calendar Consensus Example: Internal Collaboration

22. Configurable Planning Environment to Match Your Planning Process Historical Info Forecast Override Management Approval Final Plan Flexible Business Hierarchy Marketing Activities

23. Collaborate with Customers Partner Inputs: XML,EDI or Manual Production Mix Partner Forecast Metrics

24. Business Modeler Scheduler Engine Admin Workflow Builder Other Components

25. Demantra Solution Out of Box: Standard

26. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP With Demantra we will have role base security for viewing and updating the data Activities will be automated thru work flow, which will include notification and approval steps also Data integration – (Upload and download) will be automatic Std Process

27. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP Once the customer file is ready & available in a folder, its automatically download to Demantra File can be at SKU level or at the higher level, if it’s at the higher level, it will be propagated to the lower level based on actual sales data Std Process

28. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP Once customer files are downloaded, a notification is sent to demand Plan manager Demand Planner verifies the data to see if everything looks ok. Demand Planner communicates back with customers if something is not correct Std Process

29. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP Sales quantities are loaded on a daily basis from ERP instance Demand Planner approves the forecast downloaded which triggers into Demantra Demand Planning Engine Std Process

30. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP As a result of Demand Planning engine run, statistical forecast is generated based on the actual sales history System sends notification to demand planners confirming the availability of statistical forecast Std Process

31. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP Demand Planners compare the results of statistical forecast with actual forecast Planners can choose the best fit of all the available forecasts, also they have the flexibility of choosing a forecast combination of available forecasts Planners send the final forecast for approval. Std Process

32. 32 Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP Demand manager may see the forecast on the aggregated level and may make necessary changes to it After manager approves the forecast, its available for uploading into ASCP Std Process

33. Cust1 Automatic Download Cust2 Cust3 Approval Notification Simulation Forecast Upload Forecast ASCP Actual Sales data Final Forecast Demantra Engine Supply Plan & Allocated ATP Final forecast is loaded to ASCP Plan from where it can be used to generate the supply plan & allocation data for ATP inquiries ASCP can plan can be sent back to Demantra as the commitment plan which can be shared with customers Std Process

34. Brand Product Line Category Style Product Hierarchy Std combinations SKU 2 38 4 Appro 250 Appro 2500

35. Thank you