Overview IFM June 2024 Consumer Confidence INDEX Report.pdf

Overview IFM June 2024 Consumer Confidence INDEX Report.pdf

1. 1
2024 MID YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
VIETNAM OVERVIEW REPORT
Prepared by:
IFM Research
June 18, 2024
Ralf Matthaes | Managing Director
Email: [email protected]
Website: www.ifmresearch.com

2. Top Line Overview
Employment
▪92% employment rate, of which 19% changed jobs in past
6 months
▪48% received salary increases in 1
st
6 months, 16% had
salary reduced
Economic overview
▪44% Optimistic that 2024 better than 2023, 28% see 2024
as worse
▪Consumer confidence index stagnant at 51 out of 110
▪North has highest Consumer confidence at 57 vs South 48
▪Inflation (56%) is key concern, followed by Unemployment
▪31% intend to take out loans, of which 50% are for
Immediate survival and paying off Debt
▪55% experienced a decline in Savings and only 28%
increased savings
▪55% expect economic recover in 2025 and 20% even
longer
Consumer Consumption behavior
▪Reduction in spend, shopping frequency, using cheaper retail &
down trading brands are all prevalent trends
▪In-home consumption is now the new norm, while everything on-
line continues to grow
▪Traditional Trade channels (Wet markets, Ma&Pa, Mini-Marts)
outgrowing Modern trade. save for online
▪Only Education, Healthcare, F+B sectors will experience any growth
▪Household utility inflation is experiencing the biggest Increase
▪Most growth in spend comes from Inflation not Increased
consumption
▪Total consumption growth estimated to be below 4% to years end
▪North leads in consumption growth at 5.6% vs South at only 3%
Discretionary spend
▪Consumers holding off on purchase of expensive items such as cars,
electronics, etc
▪Investments in gold, bank deposit the norm,
▪Real estate and car purchases down substantially
▪Funds, Forex, cryptocurrencies experiencing substantial increase in
investment from a small base

3. 3
Consumer Confidence 2024

4. 4
VIEW OF VIETNAM’S ECONOMY – JAN 2021 – JUNE 2024
•Optimism in the economy since January 24 has declined somewhat with only 44% seeing the economy better in 2024 than
in 2023.
58%
27%
40%
56%
44%
27%
42%
33%
15%
28%
15%
31%
27%
29%
28%
2021 Jan
2022 Jan
2023 Jan
2024 Jan
2024 June
Better Same Worse
2021 vs JUNE 2024 VIEW OF THE ECONOMY
Base: 12,176
4
What is your view of the overall view of the economy for 2024 compared to 2023?

5. IFM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX JANUARY 2024
Base:17,216
2020 - 2024 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Pre-COVID-19 COVID Wave 1
•Consumer confidence has dropped somewhat since Jan 2023, fueled by the Real Estate bubble burst, reduced
exports, increased unemployment / reduced wages, and inflation. This does not bode well for 2024 consumerism.
Index out of 110
Jan 2020 July 2020 Jan 2021 July 2021July 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2024June 2024
84
27
60
12
51
63
57
51
51.4
COVID Wave 2 Post COVID-19
5
Index: The index is based on 11 spend categories in terms of
consumer spending “more – same – less” than previous Period.
(More + Same Minus Less) of 11 Categories average)
Divide by 11 sectors = Consumer Confidence Index score
For the 11 sectors, will you spend More, Same, Less in 2024 than 2023?
57.0North
51.4Total
52.4Urban
49.0Rural
48.5South

6. SPEND INCREASE BASED ON CONSUMPTION VS INFLATION
•Once inflation is taken out of the equation, actual consumption growth ranges between 15% and -20% across
sectors.
•Consumption increase = 44% driven by Education and healthcare , vs 56% % increase due to inflation, driven by
Utilities, F&B. and Healthcare. This is a shift of 6% higher inflationary spend vs 2023
Actual total growth minus inflation = 3.71% for last half of 2024, a slight drop of January 2024 (3.9%)
Base: 1,018 For the sectors you spend more on, why, increased consumption or inflation ?
Category Total Actual growth
Household utilities 30% 7%
Education 26% 15.3%
Food & beverages 25% 7.5%
Healthcare 14% 8%
Communications 4% 2%
Personal care products 2% 1%
Transportation 0%
NO Growth
Household care 0%
Personal electronics -20%
Home appliances -20%
Entertainment & dining out -20%
6

7. 7
EMERGING META TRENDS
METATREND = a change that changes change
7

8. 8
Spend time with immediate family
Hunt for promotions
Focus on saving money
Eat at home
Exercise at home
In-Home Entertainment
Focus on personal growth
Look for free entertainment sources
More time on Non Internet activities
Watch Free TV / Cable TV
Work from Outside of Home
BEHAVIOR CHANGES - ACTIVITIES TO DO MORE
BEHAVIOR CHANGES
Base: 1,018
Since COVID consumers are much more home bound, heavy promotion hunters and constantly online
Compared to 2023, for the below which will you do more or the same in 2024.
H
O
M
E
O
N
L
I
N
E

9. Bank Savings / Term Deposit
Gold
Private Life Insurance
Cryptocurrency
Real Estate
Stocks / Bonds
Fund investment
A car
Foreign Currency
Investing in a company
PRESENT INVESTMENT VEHICLES
Which of the following do you presently own / invest in?
INVESTMENT VEHICLES
Base: 1,018
Consumers are playing it safe, investing in Bank saving and Gold, while Real Estate and new Car purchases see a
rapid decline
However, major growth is anticipated for Funds, Cryptocurrency and Forex trading
Current investment
Positive index in next 6 months
Negative index in next 6 months
Real Estate
Car

10. 54%
31%
201920212022202324-Jan24-Jun
LOANS TAKEN OUT IN PAST 12 MONTHS
Base: 12,176
LOANS / LENDING AND DEBT
•31% have taken out loans in 2024, a sharp
decline year on year (Credit Crisis)
• VN Banks and consumer credit companies
make up ¾ of the loan source, while friends
and family have declined sharply
•50% of all loans are for immediate survival and
paying off debt, a 5% reduction from 2022
47%
54%
31%
11%
VN banks Friends/ Family Consumer Fin. Co Foreign banks
SOURCES OF LOAN
June 2024
2022
2021
33%
37%
25%
24%
17%
9%
7%
Immediate
survival
PersonalBusinessReal Estateto pay back
Loans / Debts
EducationAutomobile
PURPOSE OF LOANS
2024 June 2022 2021
10
Did you take out a loan in Year X, from where, what purpose ?

11. 17%
10%
7%
34%
House Apartment Land Total
LAND GRAB BUST
2020 2022 2023 2024 June Intent
•Even though the Real estate market is in the dumps, Consumers are still keen to buy.
•But the impact in terms of overall sales will be minimal in 2024, with a stagnant market 2 years running
LAND GRAB BUST PURCHASE INTENT
Base: 4,081
Have / Intend to purchase
Which of the following items did you purchase in Year x?
Which of the following items are you 90% sure going to purchase in 2024?

12. 12
Online platforms Wet marketsMa & Pa storesSuper/Hyper
markets
Convenience
stores
Mini Market Shopping Mall
RETAIL LANDSCAPE SHIFTS
•Big Winners: Online shopping and more traditional formats such as Wet Markets and Ma & Pa stores are the only
retailers that should see any increase, but marginally. Shopping malls are in big trouble.
32%
19%
21%
34%
21%
15%
-28%
202220232024 June Intent
12
Base: 4,083
RETAIL OUTLET USAGE
How much are you going to use the following retail outlets in 2024 vs 2023?

13. 13
See next slides

14. 14
Consumer confidence
▪What is your view of the overall economy so far this year compared to
2023 ?
▪Compared to the first 6 months of 2024, will you spend more, less, or
the same, across these categories in next 6 months?
▪You mentioned you will spend more on [CATEGORY]. Which of the
following best describes the reason?
▪When do you think Vietnam's economy will recover?
▪ How would you describe your ability to save first 6 months of 2024?
▪ Which of the following will you most likely – 90% sure or more buy in
next 6 months of 2024?
Shopping Behavior
▪Compared to first 6 months of 2024, how much will use the following
channels for shopping in next 6 months of 2024?
▪Which of the following platform did you purchase in past 1 month?
▪Post covid behavior consumption behavior
Savings & Investments
▪Which of the below best describes your salary Increase / Decrease in
2024
▪Which of the following do you presently own / invest in?
▪Compared to first 6 months of 2024, will you own/ invest more, less,
or the same, across the following channels in 2024?
▪Have you taken out a loan in the last 12 Months?
▪What is the purpose of your loan?
▪Where did you take out the loan from?
Urban / Rural Mobility
▪Percent intend to move to urban / rural Vietnam
What do I Get ?

15. 15
DEMOGRAPHICS
I ma g e result for A GE I CO N
I ma g e result for M A RRI ED I CO N
MALE : FEMALE
18 – 25YO: 25-35YO : 35+YO
SINGLE: MARRIED
<15 MN : 16-30 MN : 30+ MN
50% each
33% each
50% each
33% each
GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE
Hanoi & HCMC
2NDARY CITIES
RURAL
TOTAL
600
100
300
1000
60%
10%
30%
100%
LOCATION % SAMPLE
Survey coverage

16. 16
SAMPLE PLAN June 2024
SEC Household Income bands Total
A 30,000,000 VND and more 18%
B 20,000,001 - 30,000,000 VND33%
C 15,000,001 - 20,000,000 VND20%
D 10,000,001 - 15,000,000 VND16%
E Below 10,000,000 VND13%
METHODOLOGY
•IFM consumer confidence Index, has been ongoing since 2012. For this report, the sample utilized ranges
between 18,000 total and 1,000 plus respondents nation-wide and was conducted early June 2024.
•Quantitative – Self-completion by end consumers.
•Using IFM Mobile Panel via smartphones data collection.
Sample error is 3-4% based
on sample size per wave at
95% confidence level
Age %
18-2415%
25-3431%
35-4430%
45 Plus 24%
Location %
HCMC / Hanoi 40%
2nd tier - cities 22%
Rural / Sub-Urban South 14%
Rural / Sub-Urban Central10%
Rural / Sub-urban North 14%
Total 100%
N = 1,018
Gender %
Male 50%
Female 50%
Date Sample
18-Dec3,567
19-Dec2,964
20-Mar 502
20-May1,023
20-Jul1,019
20-Dec1,026
21-Jun1,010
21-Oct1,009
22-Feb1,026
22-Jul1,022
23-Jan1,017
23-Jun1,026
24-Jan1,022
24-Jun1,018
Total 18,251

17. 17
Contact us:
Ralf Matthaes | Managing Director
Email: [email protected]
[email protected]
Website: www.ifmresearch.com
Wish to have the full report and data tables, Including
▪North / South / Urban / Rural splits
▪Age / Gender / Income splits
▪Deep dive on
▪11 key sector consumption
▪Finance
▪Savings
▪Salary increases
▪Employment
▪Behavioral trends impacting consumption
▪Purchase past 12 months and intention across 15
subsectors and much-much-more