PopPov Research Agenda Appendix B

2014 State of PopPov Report Appendix B

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Appendix B: Brief Description of PopPov Projects
As part of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation’s initiative to enhance research and policy
communication in population, reproductive health, and economic development, the foundation has
partnered with institutions in the United States, the United Kingdom, Norway, the Netherlands, France,
and Africa to strengthen evidence on how population and reproductive health affect economic outcomes
in low- and middle-income countries. This Appendix is part of the report “Investigating Elements of a
Population, Poverty, and Reproductive Health Research Agenda,” available at
www.poppov.org. © 2014
Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved.

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Contents
AFD/IRD ......................................................................................................................................................... 3
ESRC .............................................................................................................................................................. 8
Hewlett Foundation Grant .......................................................................................................................... 10
IIE ................................................................................................................................................................ 14
NWO/WOTRO ............................................................................................................................................. 30
PRB Center .................................................................................................................................................. 32
PRB Dissertation Fellows............................................................................................................................. 36
RCN .............................................................................................................................................................. 40
World Bank.................................................................................................................................................. 44


PopPov Partners’ Grant Project Descriptions for Awards in 2005 or Later
Please note that only the Lead PIs are listed for each project with affiliations at the time of the award,
and that the Project Summaries are based on the latest information provided by the grant recipient and
available to PRB, either in the grant proposal or subsequent reports.

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AFD/IRD

Study: "
Conséquences des stratégies de fécondité et de la composition du ménage sur la
scolarisation et le travail des enfants en milieu urbain au Burkina Faso" ( Consequences of
fertility regimes and household composition on schooling and child labor in urban Burkina Faso)
PI(s), Institutions(s): Kobiane, Jean -Francois,
Université de Montréal
Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD
Project Dates: 2008 - 2012
Data Source(s): Panel Data Collection
Method(s): IV; Qualitative
Country(ies): Burkina Faso
French Summary:
L’objectif principal de ce projet, qui porte sur le milieu urbain au Burkina
Faso (pays parmi les moins développés au monde), est de mettre en évidence les effets des
comportements dans le domaine de la fécondité sur la scolarisation et le travail des enfants et des
adolescents, ainsi que leur variation selon la catégorie sociale, le sexe et le rang de naissance des
enfants. De manière plus spécifique, il s’adit de (i) faire avancer les connaissances sur les
stratégies de limitation de la fécondité au niveau des ménages urbains d’Afrique subsaharienne et
leur pertinence pour les décisions en matière de scolarisation et de travail des enfants et des
jeunes ; (ii) analyser, en utilisant des methods statistiques appropriées, les relations de cause à
effet entre, d’une part le nombre d’enfants et la composition de la fratrie et, d’autre part, le bien -
être des enfants, mesuré en termes de scolarisation, et contraster ces résultats avec des études
menées dans d’autres contexts (l’Asie en particulier) et (iii) mener une réflexion, à la suite de nos
résultats, sur les politiques en cours qui portent sur la planification familiale et la scolarisation
des enfants, et communiquer les conclusions aux décideurs et au grand public.

English Summary: The main objective of this project, situated in the urban area of Burkina
Faso (one of the least developed countries in the world), is to provide evidence regarding the
effect of fertility behaviors on schooling and work among children and adolescents, as well as
regarding the variations by socioeconomic status, gender, and birth order. More specifically, the
project means: (1) to advance knowledge of strategies used to limit fertility in urbain households
in Sub- Saharan Africa and how this affects decisions about children’s and youth’s schooling and
work; (ii) to analyze, using appropriate statistical methods, cause and effect, first of children and
the composition of siblings, and second, the well-being of children, measured by schooling, and
to contrast these results with studies done in other contexts (Asia in particular) and (ii) to reflect,
following our results, on the policies in place which pertain to family planning and children’s
schooling and to communicate these conclusions to decision makers et the public at large.

Study: " Les transitions en matière de fécondité, scolarisation et travail des jeunes femmes en
Afrique : Identification des déterminants et consequences” (Fertility, Schooling and Work
Transitions of Young Women in Africa: Understanding Determinants and Outcomes)
PI(s), Institutions(s): Patrick Plane, CNRS and CERDI ; Martine Audibert, CNRS;
David Sahn, l’Université Cornell (USA) and CERDI.
Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD
Project Dates: 2008- 2012
Data Source(s): Panel Data
Method(s): Econometric methods (analysis of discrete events with truncation)

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Country(ies): Senegal and Madagascar
French Summary: Les principaux objectifs et les questions de recherché sont: evaluer des
bénéfices en termes de bienêtre résultant de l’action sur les variables de comportement de
l’individu en société. La recherché a pour objet d’améliorer la compréhension des déterminants
et des impacts liés à des transitions dont les jeunes femmes font l’expérience aussi bien en
matière de transition familiale que scolaire ou professionnelle. Les analyses portent sur deux
pays africains, le Sénégal et Madagascar. On en attend des recommandations de politique
économique, des connaissances nouvelles permettant d’agir sur les modalités et le phasage
temporel de ces transitions sociales. l’étude utilise des bases de données uniques permettant de
saisir les transitions en termes de constitution de famille, de scolarisation et de transitions
attachées à l’insertion sur le marché du travail. On dispose de données de long terme sur les
cohortes d’individus. L’étude autorise d’abord le traitement de problèmes statistiques ayant
jusqu’ici pénalisé la qualité des travaux sur les pays Africains. Elle permet, par ailleurs, de
produire de l’information détaillée sur les politiques en regard de la santé reproductive ou de
l’éducation qui affectent les transitions.

English Summary: The main objectives and research questions are to evaluate the benefits, in
terms of well- being, resulting from changes in individual behavior in the social context. This
research seeks to improve comprehension of the determinants and effects associated with
transitions young women experience in family formation as well as in transitions to school or
work. We expect from these analyses recommendations about economic policy, new knowledge
that leads to action regarding the modes and timing of social transitions. The study uses as its
base, unique data that allows us to follow transitions in family formation, schooling, and
workforce entry. We have at our disposal long- term data on cohorts of individuals. The study
allows us first of all, to solve statistical problems that have, until now, undermined the quality of
work on African countries. In addition, it allows us to produce detailed information pertaining to
reproductive health policy or education that affects these transitions.

Study: "
Information, Sexualité adolescente et Santé” (Information, Sexual Behavior, and Health
Among Teenagers in Cameroon)
PI(s), Institutions(s): Duflo, Esther, J -Pal Europe/PSE; IRESCO
Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD
Project Dates: 2008- 2012
Data Source(s): Panel Data
Method(s): Experimental Design
Country(ies): Cameroon
French Summary: Ce projet consiste en une expérimentation contrôlée permettant d’évaluer
l’impact de plusieurs campagnes de prévention diffusées à des jeunes filles de classe de 4ème sur
les comportements sexuels à risque. L’expérimentation portera sur le contenu du message d’une
part – faut -il informer sur le risque moyen de contamination ou sur les risques relatifs suivant
l’âge du partenaire ?, et sur la façon dont le message est délivré d’autre part – faut -il délivrer
l’information par l’intermédiaire d’une personne spécialisée extérieure à l’école ou du personnel
permanent de l’école ? Elle permettra également d’en apprendre davantage sur les possibilités de
diffusion sociale des informations transmises par le programme dans l’entourage des jeunes
filles. Ce projet de recherche utilise la méthode d’évaluation par assignation aléatoire qui garantit

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que les résultats exprimeront une causalité et pas uniquement une corrélation entre les différents
paramètres étudiés.

English Summary: This project consists of a randomized controlled experiment, permitting
evaluation of the impact of several interventions delivered to young women in their 4
th
grade
class on risky sexual behavior. The RCT focuses on the content of the message in one arm—
should one inform them about the risky means of infection or about the relative risques that come
with the age of their partner. It allows us both to better learn the potential pathways for social
diffusion, in the group of young girls, of the information transmited by the program. This project
uses evaluation methods based on random assignment, assuring that the esperimental results are
causal and not uniquely correlated with different study parameters.


Study: "Migration, Labor Market and Demographic Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa
(MIMADEM)"
PI(s), Institutions(s): Mathias Kuépié, CEPS and DIAL, Paris; Anne -Sophie Robilliard, IRD,
DIAL, Dakar
Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD
Project Dates: 2008- 2012
Data Source(s):
Method(s):
Country(ies): Senegal, Mali, Cameroon
French Summary:
Le projet MIMADEM se propose de réexaminer les relations entre
dynamiques démographiques et dynamiques économiques en Afrique à travers la notion de
dividende démographique et en mettant l’accent sur le rôle du marché du travail et sur celui des
migrations. Du point de vue méthodologique, il s’agira de dépasser le cadre des analyses
basées sur des données agrégées par pays, en mobilisant des micro ‐données issues d’enquêtes
socioéconomiques et sociodémographiques existantes ou collectées dans le cadre de ce projet.
The MIMADEM project proposes to reexamine the relationship between demographic and
economic dynamics in Africa, using the notion of the demographic dividend and emphasizing the
role of work and on migration. From the methodological perspective, it rests on a set of analyses
based on aggregate statistics by country, drawing on microdata from existing socioeconomic and
sociodemographic surveys and from cata collected as part of this project.


Study: “Migration et développement : Analyse comparée du rôle des transferts monétaires, des
investissements et des migrations de retour au Sénégal et en RD du Congo
PI(s), Institution(s): Bruno Schoumaker, Universite Catholique de Louvain
Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD
Project Dates: 2008- 2012
Data Source(s): Cross -sectional data collection (MAFE surveys)
Methods: MV analysis
Country(ies): Senegal and the Democratic Republic of Congo
Summary:
L’objectif du projet MAFE-CoDev est de mettre en question cette « évidence »
politique : les migrants internationaux sont- ils bien les vecteurs de développement qu’appellent
de leurs voeux les politiques africaines et européennes ? Cette question sera déclinée en trois

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thèmes : (1) les transferts vers les ménages et leur impact, (2) la réintégration des migrants de
retour, (3) les investissements individuels et collectifs des migrants dans leur pays d’origine.

English Summary: The objective of the MAFE-CoDev project is to confront the following
question with the policy evidence: are international migrants, development vectors that the
African and European politicians bend to their interests. This question is demarcated by three
themes: (1) the transfer of households and their impact; (2) reintegration of return migrants; (3)
individual and collective investments of migrants in their country of origin (remittances).

Study: "Health Risks and Migration in Sub- Saharan Countries"
PI(s), Institution(s): Ali ce Mesnard, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD
Project Dates: 2008- 2012
Data Source(s): Panel (Data Collection)
Methods: Descriptive Statistics and Modeling
Country(ies): Nigeria and Tanzania
Summary: Health risks are among the most severe risks confronting poor households in sub
Saharan Africa, especially in areas where affordable and quality health care is scarce and access
to health insurance is limited. Individuals may travel long distances or even move to seek
treatment, escape from infectious diseases, or help their families overcome financial hardship
resulting from high medical expenditures and loss of income due to illness. Such relationships
between health risks and migration are rarely explicitly studied despite their important
consequences for the planning, targeting, and effectiveness of health policies. This research will
investigate the role of migration in dealing with the risks of chronic and acute illnesses, injuries,
hospitalizations, and communicable diseases that may not only affect the health of people but
also their economic situation.

Study: "
Pauvreté et besoins non satisfaits en santé de la reproduction des adolescents et des
jeunes en Afrique Centrale” (Poverty and Unmet Needs in Reproductive Health of Adolescents
and Youth in Central Africa)
PI(s), Institution(s): Gervais B eninguisse, Institut de Formation et de recherches
demographique
Funding Scheme: AFD/IRD
Project Dates: 2008- 2012
Data Source(s): DHS , Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, Biographical Surveys, Situational
Surveys
Methods: Multilevel Analysis, MV Analysis, Survival Analysis and Qualitative Methods
Country(ies): Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, DRC,
Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, and Sao Tome
French Summary: Le projet vise donc principalement à évaluer l’ampleur des besoins
non satisfaits en SR des adolescents et jeunes d’Afrique Centrale et illustrer leurs liens avec la
pauvreté dans ses diverses dimensions (pauvreté monétaire et pauvreté non monétaire) et ses
niveaux de manifestation.

L’étude qui couvre sept pays d’Afrique Centrale (Cameroun, Centrafrique, Congo, RDC,
Gabon, Guinée Equatoriale, Tchad) s’appuiera de façon complémentaire sur une analyse des

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données socio- démographiques existantes (EDS, MICS, Enquêtes sur le niveau de vie des
ménages) et sur une collecte des données originales issues des enquêtes
biographiques, qualitatives et situationnelles.

Les analyses reposeront sur une combinaison complémentaire des approches quantitatives et
qualitatives. L’approche quantitative reposera sur le modèle multi-niveau dans le but de
déterminer la part de chaque niveau dans l’explication totale des différences observées en
matière d’occurrence des besoins non satisfaits en SR.

The main objective of the project is to assess the extent of unmet needs in reproductive health
(RH) of adolescents and youth in Central Africa and to illustrate their links with poverty in its
various dimensions (income poverty and nonincome poverty) and its levels of manifestation
(microindividual, microhousehold, macrocity, and macronational).
The study covers nine countries of Central Africa (Angola, Cameroon, Central African
Republic, Congo, DRC, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, and Sao Tome) and relies on a
complementary analysis of existing socio-demographic data and collection of original data
including biographical, qualitative, and situational surveys. The analysis is based on a
complementary combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches. The quantitative
approach is based on multilevel model to determine the contribution of each level in the total
explanation of the observed differences in the occurrence of unmet needs of RH.

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ESRC
Study: "Enhancing the Economic, Health, and Social Capabilities of Highly Vulnerable Youth"
PI(s), Institution(s): Kelly Hallman, Population Council
Funding Scheme: ESRC
Project Dates: November, 2007 – November, 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: Young people in South Africa face a high risk of HIV, teenage pregnancy, school
dropout, and unemployment, and are further disadvantaged by the actual or potential loss of one
or both parents to HIV and conditions of poverty, inequality, and food insecurity. These
circumstances make the transition from childhood to adulthood especially difficult, and many of
the most disadvantaged are in danger of falling even farther behind socially and economically
due to illness, stigma, and the loss of key supportive adults such as parents and teachers. Many
programs fail to recognize that young people’s vulnerabilities differ by ethnicity, age, gender,
SES, social connectedness, and orphan- hood status. What’s more, few programs for young
people have been evaluated to show what their actual impact is.

Baseline findings from the study show program participants to be a vulnerable group,
facing situations of orphaning, poverty, and lack of supportive structures to deal with such
circumstances. However, these factors seem to have a variety of connections with behaviors and
experiences that affect sexual and reproductive health and HIV. In some cases protective factors
for females and males are common but their influence may be on different behaviors. In other
cases factors associated with healthy outcomes and behaviors differ by gender. A second round
of data collection is currently underway which will allow for assessment of the program’s short-
term impacts on young people’s vulnerabilities and experiences.

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Study: "Effects of Reproductive Health on Poverty in Malawi"
PI(s), Institution(s): Marcos Vera -Hernandez, UCL, IFS
Funding Scheme: ESRC
Project Dates: April, 2008 – August 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Randomized Controlled T rial
Country(ies): Malawi
Summary: The research program will investigate the causal effect of reproductive health on
poverty, primarily using data on randomized interventions that relate specifically to reproductive
health. P overty indicators will include not only current variables such as household consumption
and female labor supply, but also investments in the health and education of children, which are
known to be critical for long-term poverty reduction.

The research will be in Malawi, a highly policy -relevant context for understanding the
relationship between reproductive health and poverty in sub- Saharan Africa. Both poverty and
poor reproductive health are widespread in Malawi, though there is little understanding of the
causal relationship between the two. Poverty might affect reproductive health and vice versa.
The challenge of this research is to disentangle the causal effect of reproductive health on
poverty.

Study: "Unintended Childbearing and Family Welfare in Rural Malawi"
PI(s),Institution(s): Angela Baschieri, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine;
Albert Dube; John Cleland
Funding Scheme: ESRC
Project Dates: July, 2008 – December, 2012
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Propensity Score Matching, IV econometric
Country(ies): Malawi
Summary: In Malawi, women on average bear about six children. One -quarter to one-third of
these children are unwanted or occur sooner than desired and could thus be prevented by greater
uptake of effective contraception. The key aim of this research is to assess the impact of
unwanted births on family welfare. Family welfare is represented by the physical growth of
children and by retention in school. In a very poor country such as Malawi, the adverse effect on
family economics of an extra mouth to feed and child to rear is likely to be expressed by
inadequate nutrition of children leading to slower growth and school dropout of teenage children.

This research will inform the debate by conducting a study linked to an ongoing
Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS) in Karonga District in Northern Malawi. Malawi is one of
the poorest countries in the world; it is a high fertility country, with only 26.3 percent of women
using any method of contraception. The DSS data of Karonga district provide the ideal setting to
study the relationship between family planning and fertility and investment in children’s
schooling and nutrition.

Study: "The Effects of Obstetric Complications and Their Costs on the Long-Term Economic
and Social Well Being of Women and Their Families in Burkina Faso"

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PI(s), Institution(s): Veronique Filippi, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine;
Susan Murray, King’s College London; Steven Russell, University of East Anglia; Tom Marshall
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Katerini Storeng and Nicolas Meda London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Centre Muraz and Rasmane Ganaba, AfricSante
Funding Scheme: ESRC
Project Dates: April, 2008 – July, 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Qualitative Analysis
Country(ies): Burkina Faso
Summary: This study explores the impact of severe obstetric complications and the costs of
treating such complications on economic, social, and physical well-being, and examines whether
such events lead to sustained impoverishment in the longer term (three to four years). It builds on
a recently completed longitudinal study (IMMPACT OAP study) of 1,014 women in Burkina
Faso, which investigated the health, economic, and social consequences of severe (“near miss”)
complications compared with normal facility-based births up to one year postpartum (Filippi et
al., 2007; Storeng et al., 2008). The IMMPACT OAP study found that complications often pose
an immediate financial burden on women and their households. In addition, there are postpartum
effects on the survival rate of women and infants, women’s physical and mental health, and on
social well-being.
Hewlett Foundation Grant

Study: "Research program on the impact of reproductive health and population dynamics on
economic development"
PI(s), Institution(s): David Canning, Harvar d University; David Bloom; Günther Fink; Jocelyn
Finlay
Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant
Project Dates: May, 2008 – October, 2010
Data Source(s): Pooled DHS,
Methods: Descriptive statistics, cross-national regression models,
Country(ies): Global , China & India
Summary:
Several subprojects were produced as a result of this research program. One paper
analyzes the distribution of fertility rates across the world using parametric mixture models. This
research demonstrates the existence of twin peaks and the division of the world's countries in two
distinct components: a high- fertility regime and a low fertility regime. Whereas the significance
of twin peaks vanishes over time, the two fertility regimes continue to exist over the whole
observation period. In 1950 about two thirds of the world's countries belonged to the high-
fertility regime and the rest constituted the low-fertility regime. By the year 2005 this picture has
reversed. Within both the low- and the high- fertility regime the average fertility rate declined,
with a larger absolute decline within the high-fertility regime. Visually, the two peaks moved
closer together. For the low fertility-group we find both β and σ convergence but we cannot
establish any convergence pattern for the high fertility regime. Overall our findings are difficult
to reconcile with the standard view of a fertility trap but they support the “differentiated take-off"
view established in the Unified Growth literature.

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Another sub- project examined economic evaluations of health interventions. Evaluations
of health interventions, such as vaccinations, are important tools for informing health policy.
Approaching the analysis from the appropriate perspective is critical to ensuring the validity of
evaluation results for particular policy decisions. Using the example of benefit‐cost analysis
(BCA) of Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccination, this study demonstrates that past
economic evaluations have mostly adopted narrow evaluation perspectives, focusing primarily
on health gains, health care cost savings, and reductions in the time costs of caring, while
ignoring other important benefits including outcome‐related productivity gains (prevention of
mental and physical disabilities), behavior‐related productivity gains (economic growth due to
fertility reductions as vaccination improves child survival), and community externalities
(prevention of antibiotic resistance and herd immunity). The study further shows that the
potential cost reductions that could be attained through changes in the delivery of the Hib
vaccine have also usually been ignored in economic evaluations. Future economic evaluations of
childhood vaccinations should take full account of benefits and costs, so that policy makers have
sufficient information to make well‐ informed decisions on vaccination implementation.


Study: "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend"
PI(s), Institution(s): David Bloom, University of Michigan; David Canning; Günt her Fink;
Jocelyn E. Finlay
Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant
Project Dates: June, 2008 – May, 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Instrumental Variables
Country(ies): Global
Summary: This research estimates the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a
panel of countries using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. Findings show that
removing legal restrictions on abortion significantly reduces fertility and estimate that, on
average, a birth reduces a woman’s labor supply by almost 2 years during her reproductive life.
These results imply that behavioral change, in the form of increased female labor supply,
contributes significantly to economic growth during the demographic transition when fertility
declines.

Study: "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe"
PI(s), Institution(s): David Bloom, University of Michigan; David Canning; Günther Fink;
Jocelyn E. Finlay
Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant
Project Dates: June, 2008 – May, 2011
Data Source(s): Cross -national data
Methods: Modeling
Country(ies): Europe
Summary: There are three theoretical channels through which fertility affects economic
development: population growth with fixed resources (the Malthusian theory), the Solow capital
stock effect, and the age structure effect. According to the Malthusian hypothesis, larger
populations imply lower resources per capita in the presence of a fixed factor (land is frequently
given as an example), and thus lower income per capita. A similar yet slightly more subtle

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mechanism is at play in the Solow growth model (Solow 1956), where capital stock is built up
through savings and declines with depreciation. With constant returns to scale, population
growth works in the same way as capital depreciation and thus lowers steady-state income per
capita in the traditional Solow model.

The third link between fertility and economic growth, and the main focus of this article,
is age structure. The age structure of a population follows from the historical sequence of
fertility, mortality, and net migration, and directly determines the relative size of the working- age
population. Since output is measured in per capita terms, the fact that labor force participation
rates vary by age means that the working-age share directly affects income per capita through the
number of workers per capita. A decline in fertility reduces the number of children, thus
unambiguously raising the working-age share and—as long as participation rates do not
change— increasing labor supply per capita in the short run (Bloom and Freeman 1986). The
same argument does not hold in the long run. As shown in further detail below, persistently high
fertility levels imply an age distribution strongly skewed toward the young generations in steady-
state. On the other hand, sustained low fertility levels like the ones currently observed across
Europe imply very large relative sizes for the old and economically inactive cohorts in steady-
state.

Study: "Demographic Change, Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Poverty in Nigeria:
A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis"
PI(s), Institution(s): Nkang M. Nkang, University of Ibadan, Nigeria
Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant
Project Dates: 2009
Data Source(s): Multiple surveys & sources
Methods: Simulation
Country(ies): Nigeria
Summary: Recently, it has become increasingly important to analyze population dynamics
beyond population growth itself, since it has been demonstrated that age structure, fertility,
mortality, and migration influence population and economic growth in significant ways.
Generally, fertility and mortality mostly determine the age distribution of population and are in
turn determined by the living conditions in the population, notably health facilities. With the
appropriate health facilities and policies, fertility and mortality rates can be managed to align
with economic growth objectives. Fertility rates are high in most developing countries because
most women in these countries have an unmet need for contraception. The high unmet need leads
to millions of either unwanted or mistimed pregnancies that give rise to high youth dependency
ratios. This has been hypothesized to negatively impact economic growth by reducing per capita
incomes and increasing the incidence of poverty. In contrast, it is perceived that demographic
transition, driven by fertility reduction, promotes growth, and allows large amounts of human
capital investments by households, with attendant distributional outcomes that reduce poverty.
Given this background, the study seeks to evaluate the impact of fertility shocks on economic
growth, income inequality, and poverty in Nigeria using the computable general equilibrium
framework.

Study: “Reproductive Health in Ghana”
PI(s), Institution(s): T. Paul Schultz, Yale University

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Funding Scheme: HEWLETT FOUNDATION Grant
Project Date s: April 2009 to August 2012
Data Source(s): Panel Data Collection
Method(s):
Country(ies): Ghana
Summary:

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IIE
Study: “Essays on Population and Economic Development”
PI(s), Institution(s): Joshua Wilde, Brown University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates : AugustAugust 2009 – August 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Instrumental Variable Regression Approach
Country(ies): England
Summary: The extent to which fixed factors of production, such as land, constrain per capita
income growth has historically been a widely discussed topic in economics since Malthus
(1798). Whether fixed factors limit growth critically depends on two variables: the
substitutability of fixed factors in production, and the extent to which innovation will be biased
toward land- saving technologies. However, there are few estimates of either variable, and most
models assume this elasticity of substitution is unity out of convenience. This paper attempts to
fill that gap in the literature. Using the timing of plague epidemics as an instrument for labor
supply, this paper estimates the elasticity of substitution between fixed factors and nonfixed
factors in preindustrial England. The study finds that the elasticity of substitution between land
and other factors during this period was significantly less than one, which implies that the
Malthusian effects of population on income were stronger than current models predict. In
addition, the study estimates the direction and magnitude of induced innovation and finds
evidence that denser populations—and hence less availability of land—induced innovation
toward land- saving technologies. Specifically, the results show that a doubling of population
density in England from its year-1500 level increases the difference in the growth rates of land-
enhancing and labor enhancing productivity by 0.22 percent per year.

Study: "Why is Infant Formula Marketing so Controversial? Effect on Breastfeeding and Later
Life Outcomes of Children"
PI(s), Institution(s): Ava Gail Cas, Duke University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Difference- in-Difference
Country(ies): Indonesia
Summary: This research examines the long -term impact of the 1989 village midwife program in
Indonesia on children’s health (measured by height) and cognitive outcomes. I combine the quasi
experimental design of the program with 14 years of rich longitudinal data from the Indonesian
Family Life Survey (IFLS) to observe children from their first year of life to age 14. My goal
was to examine how exposure to the program early in life affects their health and schooling
outcomes later in life.

Study: “Essays on Water in Developing Countries”
PI(s),Institution(s): Evan Peet, Duke University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Household fixed effects model, latent variable model

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Country(ies): Indonesia
Summary: The preliminary results demonstrate significant beneficial effects of piped water on
height. The distributions of height for treated and untreated groups appear distinct and the
distributions of placebo groups, as well as tests of the same, do not appear different from those of
untreated groups. The three anthropometric measures used are height for age- score, weight for
age z-score and weight for height z-score, with height being the measure for which the biological
evidence is most clear. The first three columns display the estimated impacts on these three
health outcomes using household fixed effects, and the last three use community fixed effects.
The effect of piped water is both positive and significant on height, while its effect on both
measures of weight is inconclusive. Furthermore, panels C and D show significantly negative
effects of piped water on height for the placebo groups. All this evidence tells the coherent story
that piped water significantly benefits health in Indonesia.

Study: “Women, Children, and the Dynamics of Conditional Cash Transfers”
PI(s),Institution(s): Gabriela Farfan, Duke University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Difference- in-Difference
Country(ies): Mexico
Summary: Using population- level data from the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), this
study examines the impact on child health of a large-scale conditional cash transfer program,
Oportunidades. This innovative antipoverty program puts additional resources in the hands of
women and their families and encourages parents to invest in human capital of their children.
Program income accounts for about 25% of total resources in beneficiary households. The causal
impact of the program on child health is isolated by exploiting insights from the biology of child
growth in combination with the timing of the roll- out of Oportunidades and the panel dimension
of MxFLS. Height for age among children exposed during the first 3 years of life is contrasted
with similar children who were not exposed.

Study: “The Contribution of Health in Utero to Capacity Formation, Education and Economic
Outcomes: Experimental Evidence from Tanzania”
PI(s),Institution(s): Plamen Nikolov, Harvard University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates August 2009 – August 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial
Country(ies): Tanzania
Summary: Because of the high returns of schooling in developing countries, policymakers pay a
lot of attention to increasing school access. But if the mother is deficient in folic acid, brain
development in utero can biologically constrain children’s demand for education. Using a more
scientifically credible research design than has been used in previous research, the research team
examines how reductions in micronutrient deficiency (specifically for folic acid, B6, and B12) in
utero affect subsequent child schooling attainment in Tanzania. They also look at the extent to
which parents allocate resources to compensate for or to reinforce inequalities in children’s

16. 16

cognitive endowments. To execute this strategy, this study follows up on a Randomized
Controlled Trial (RCT) with micronutrient supplements offered to HIV -negative pregnant
women in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, between 2001 to 2003.

Study: "Economies of Courtship: Gender, Work, and Material Transactions Between Brides and
Grooms in Egypt"
PI(s),Institution(s): Rania Salem, Harvard Universit y
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: standard regression and survival analysis techniques
Country(ies): Egypt
Summary: In many societies the formation of marital unions requires considerable resources.
But in Egypt, young people and their families must save for years to afford the real estate,
jewelry, furniture, appliances, and celebrations required for marriage. The high cost of marriage
has been linked to three important transformations in marriage behavior in Egypt: the rising age
at first marriage for young men, greater female contributions to marriage expenses, and the
emergence of secret marital unions. The purpose of this mixed -methods dissertation is to
investigate the consequences of these changes in marriage behavior for Egypt’s economic
development, particularly implications for women’s employment and for socioeconomic and
gender inequalities. The study argues that the need to finance marriage is a major factor driving
women’s pursuit of wage work in Egypt. Men’s diminished earnings coupled with women’s
access to employment have prompted brides to contribute more and more to the costs of
marriage. This research also shows that the economic resources women receive at marriage do
not enhance their power in relation to husbands, and do not reduce gender inequalities, as theory
would predict.

Study: “Global and U.S.- based Variations in Social, Health, and Economic Impacts of Family
Caregiving”
PI(s), Institution(s): Benjamin Capistrant, Harvard University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2012
Data Source(s): Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE)
Methods: Data Source and Study Sample
Country(ies): China, India, Russia, South Africa, Ghana, and Mexico
Summary: In this paper, I capitalize on a new data set to estimate prevalence of care among
older adults in five lower and middle income countries: Mexico, Ghana, South Africa, Russia,
and India. First, the study examines differences in care needs and provision across these
countries. Second, it assesses whether care is differentially provided by gender across all SAGE
countries and hypothesizes women are more likely to provide care than men across all SAGE
countries.

Study: "The economic impact of HIV in South Africa."
PI(s), Institution(s): Zoe McLaren, University of Michigan
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – August 2010

17. 17

Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Fixed Effects Regression Analysis at the Community Level
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: This study examines the impact of access to AIDS treatment on employment
outcomes in South Africa. Antiretroviral (ARV) drug treatment offers promise as an effective
policy intervention to improve the lives of the nearly 6 million South Africans who are HIV-
positive. In 2004, the government began the rollout of free ARV treatment in public health
clinics. Generally, within three to six months of treatment initiation, health status dramatically
improves and life expectancy increases. Recent studies have found ARV treatment to be
associated with an increase in labor supply and a reduction in absenteeism. One would expect
that the improvement in health from access to treatment would raise the productivity of sick
workers, which should increase labor force participation, search activity, and employment rates.
This research resulted in the creat ion of a new data set that combines detailed, nationally
representative economic data with data from public clinics that provide AIDS treatment.
Analyzing data at the community level using seven consecutive waves of survey data from
September 2004 to September 2007, provides the first evaluation of the government provision of
ARV treatment in South Africa. The results of this study will provide guidance for the targeting
of health service provision in limited-resource environments. Better alignment and coordination
of health and labor policy can improve the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of government
policies in both arenas.

Study: "The Importance of Reproductive Health Services: Lessons from the Global Gag Rule"
PI(s), Institution(s): Kelly Jones, UC Berkeley
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: September, 2008 – September, 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Fixed effects, individual, calendar month, and nearest policy change
Country(ies): Ghana
Summary: U.S. development assistance represents a significant source of funding for many
population programs in poor countries. The Mexico City policy, known derisively as the global
gag rule, restricts activities of foreign NGOs that receive such assistance. The intent of the policy
is to reduce the use of abortion in developing countries a policy born entirely of U.S. domestic
politics, which turns on and off depending on the political party in power. This research
examines whether the policy achieves its aim, and how the policy affects reproductive outcomes
for women in Ghana. Employing a woman-by-month panel of pregnancies and woman- fixed
effects, the researchers estimate whether a given woman is less likely to abort a pregnancy
during two policy periods versus two non- policy periods, and find no evidence that any
demographic group reduces the use of abortion as a result of the policy. On the contrary, rural
women significantly increase abortions. This affect seems to arise from their increased rate of
conception during these times. The policy-induced budget shortfalls reportedly forced NGOs to
cut rural outreach services, reducing the availability of contraceptives in rural areas. The lack of
contraceptives likely caused the observed 12% increase in rural pregnancies, ultimately resulting
in about 200,000 additional abortions and between a half and three-quarters of a million
additional unintended births. T hese additional unwanted births have significantly reduced height-
and weight-for-age, relative to their siblings. Rather than reducing abortion, this policy increased

18. 18

pregnancy, abortion, and unintended births, resulting in more than a half-million children of
significantly reduced nutritional status.

Study: “Female Empowerment, Intra- Household Decision- Making, Fertility and Economic
Development in East Africa”
PI(s), Institution(s): Jonas Hjort, UC Berkeley
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – June, 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial
Country(ies): Ethiopia
Summary: This research l ooked at the effect of female employment on (fertility and other)
intra-household decision- making, and ensuing income trends, by doing an experimental
evaluation of the intra-household effects of parents permanent employment. The paper estimated
and explained the impact of mother’s and father’s employment on daughters and sons and used
results to inform household theory.

Study: "Population and Development in Ethiopia: Investigating the Impact of Fertility Trends on
Household Economy (With Particular Reference to Selected Case Studies in Amhara National
Regional State)"
PI(s), Institution(s): Chalachew Getahun, Addis Ababa University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Project Dates: 2009- 2011
Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – August 2011
Data Source(s): Cross -sectional (HH Survey Implementation)
Methods: Qualitative and MV analysis
Country(ies): Ethiopia
Summary: Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that, in poor countries, a high fertility
rate impedes the economic wellbeing of households and household members. The general
objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of fertility on household economic well- being
in Ethiopia. T he research team developed a household survey in which parents were asked, in a
structured interview, about their past fertility behavior and their current economic well- being at a
given point in time. The structured interview was supplemented by unstructured discussions
(focus group discussions) among samples of participants. Data was analyzed both statistically
and textually to understand the link between parents’ fertility and conditions of the household’s
economic well-being, and predicted that parents with a low fertility rate will score better in
economic well-being.

Study: "Effects of Mortality and Fertility on Economic Growth in SSA, 1970- 2005"
PI(s), Institution(s): Akintunde Temitope, Obafemi Awolowo University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Project Dates: 2008- 2010
Fellowship Dates: November, 2008 – October, 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Cross-national regression
Country(ies): Sub- Saharan Africa

19. 19

Summary: The study assesses the trend and pattern of mortality and fertility rates and
investigates the direction of causality between fertility and economic growth in sub- Saharan
Africa (SSA). The goal of the study was to evaluate the impact of mortality and fertility rates on
the economic growth in SSA from 1970 to 2005. While many regions of the world are already
experiencing declines in mortality and fertility rates, and increases in economic growth and
development; the mortality rate is still high in SSA, the fertility rate is rigidly downwards, and
economic growth is also very low. Using secondary data, the study reveals that one-way
causality runs from fertility to economic growth and high mortality and fertility rates are
contributing to low economic growth in SSA.

Study: "A Dynamic Structural Model of Contraceptive Use and Employment Sector Choice for
Women in Indonesia"
PI(s), Institution(s): Uma Radhakrishnan, University of Virginia
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: September, 2008 – August 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Multilevel analysis
Country(ies): Indonesia
Summary: In the 1960s, the average Indonesian woman had between five and six children. By
the mid-1990s, the average number of children had declined to close to three per woman. A large
part of this reduction in fertility has been attributed to the extensive family planning program that
was initiated in the late 1960s under the regime of President Suharto. Contraceptive use among
married women increased from 5 percent in the late 1960s to approximately 55 percent in the
mid-1990s. While there is an extensive literature on the impact of the Family Planning Program
on fertility rates and contraceptive use, there has been very little investigation of the program’s
impact on other aspects of a woman’s life, such as labor force participation. This research
investigates the impact of the Indonesian Family Planning Program on the labor force
participation decisions and contraceptive choices of women.

The researcher develop ed a discrete choice dynamic structural model, where each
married woman in every period makes joint choices regarding the method of contraceptive used
and the sector of employment. Each woman obtains utility from pecuniary sources, non-
pecuniary sources, and choice-specific time shocks. In addition to the random shocks, there is
uncertainty in the model, as a woman can only imperfectly control her fertility. Several forms of
state and duration dependence capture dynamics in the model. Women in this model make
different choices due to different preferences, differences in observable characteristics, and
realization of uncertainties. The choices made by a woman depend on the compatibility between
raising children and the sector of employment (including wages). While making decisions
regarding contraceptive use, a woman considers the trade-off between the costs (monetary and
nonmonetary) and benefits of having a child.

Study: "Reproductive Health, Labor Outcomes, and Pro- Poor Growth in South Africa: A Micro-
Simulation Approach"
PI(s), Institution(s): Gauthier Tshiswaka -Kashalala, University of Pretoria, South Africa
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: September, 2008 – August 2010

20. 20

Data Source(s): Cross -sectional
Methods: MV analysis
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: South Africa has experienced fertility decline, but like many developing countries
outside of East Asia, has not seen the parallel decline in poverty and inequality that would
signify a demographic bonus from the fertility decline. This study uses microeconomic
arguments and household level data on early childbearing and excess fertility to quantitatively
analyze the persistence of poverty and inequalities in South Africa. The channels of interest here,
through which poor reproductive health outcomes affect the level of poverty and inequalities, are
missed labor market opportunities due to ill health and low educational attainment. Results from
the quantitative analysis will be used to build a microsimulation model that will be used as a
policy tool to evaluate the effects of different poverty reduction strategies.

Study: "Economic Impact of Unsafe Induced Abortion in Uganda. "
PI(s), Institution(s): Joseph Babigumira, University of Washington
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2008 – August 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Cost-effectiveness analysis
Country(ies): Uganda
Summary: Almost 300,000 induced abortions are performed annually in Uganda, resulting in
85,000 abortion- related complications and 1,200 deaths. This exerts a substantial morbidity,
mortality, and cost burden on the country. The abortions are a consequence of the high
prevalence of unintended pregnancies, which are a result of the high level of unmet need for
contraception: 33 percent of Ugandan women have an unmet need for effective contraception.
Since abortion is illegal in Uganda, it is usually performed in clandestine, unhygienic places by
undertrained and unskilled practitioners; and is associated with a wide range of complications
and myriad health and economic consequences.

Although some aspects of the health impact of abortion have been studied in Uganda, the
post hospitalization health impact is not well understood. Also, the economic impact of induced
abortion has in general not been well studied. This study characterized the health impact of
induced abortion in Uganda by estimating the morbidity, mortality, and costs associated with
abortion procedures, abortion complications, hospitalizations, and post hospitalization
complications. It also estimated the cost-effectiveness of increasing contraceptive coverage or
reducing the unmet need for contraception.

The study has three specific aims: to quantify the health and economic impact of the post
hospitalization complications of induced abortion; to estimate the national cost of unsafe induced
abortions; and to calculate the cost-effectiveness of increasing contraceptive coverage (reducing
the unmet need for contraception). These aims will be achieved by performing three independent
studies: (1) a six-month observational cohort study comparing the health (outpatient visits,
hospitalizations, all- cause mortality, self-reported health, and health -related quality of life) and
economic (labor and school participation, earning, and savings) characteristics of women
discharged following a complication of induced abortion and women who have not had an
induced abortion; (2) a cost-of-illness study to determine the total economic impact of unsafe

21. 21

induced abortion on Ugandan society; and (3) a decision analytic cost-effectiveness model to
calculate the incremental costs and benefits—in terms of lives saved and maternal quality-
adjusted life years saved—of increasing contraceptive coverage in Uganda.

Study: "Marriage, Labor Supply and Assortative Mating in South Africa"
PI(s), Institution(s): Grace Kumchulesi, University of Cape Town
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2008 – June, 2010
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional
Methods: Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: The broad objective of the study is to investigate declining marriages in the post-
apartheid South Africa. The specific objectives are threefold. First, using the independent
surveys from 1995 to 2006 and employing the Age-Period-Cohort Model, the study disentangles
marriage trends into age, period, and cohort effects to determine whether the change in marital
patterns observed in the post-apartheid period is a real shift in marital behavior and not just a
trend driven by change in sampling designs and erratic fluctuations. Having established that the
change in marriage rates indeed demonstrates a generational change in marital behavior, the
second objective focuses on the determinants of women’s marriage decisions. To this end, the
study account s for the interdependence between female labor force participation and marriage
decisions by estimating simultaneous equation models using the two-step procedure, which is
precisely Maddala’s model 6 (1983, page 246), for each of the years.

The third objective begs for an explanation of the trend towards fewer marriages. The
analysis from the previous objective signifies that age, education, labor market status,
availability of potential partners, and location where one stays are all important factors in a
woman’s marriage decision. However, samples drawn from the population at different points in
time likely lead to observations that are not identically distributed. The population may have
different distributions in variables across time. Thus, simply comparing estimated coefficients
from different cross-sections does not clarify whether marriage decline is a result of change in
coefficients (functional relationship of a model) or change in characteristics (distribution of
characteristics

Study: "Economic Cost and Social Consequences of Living with AIDS Orphans on Households
in Selected Rural and Urban Communities in South- Western Nigeria: A Cohort Study of Cost
Analyses and Coping Strategies"
PI(s), Institution(s): Adebola Or imadegun, University of Ibadan, Nigeria
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: October, 2008 – September, 2010
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional (Primary Data Collection)
Methods: Descriptive
Country(ies): Nigeria
Summary: The HIV/AIDS pandemic has given rise to major demographic changes, including
family poverty and a disturbing number of orphans, especially in sub- Saharan Africa. Nigeria
ranks second among sub- Saharan African countries in the number of people living with
HIV/AIDS. Nigeria is estimated to have the highest number of AIDS orphans. The estimated

22. 22

number of maternal AIDS orphans was 1 million in 2001, and may exceed 2 million by 2015.
The social and developmental implications of this pose a serious challenge for the fight against
the disease and its economic impact on families and the nation. Evidence-based programming
underscores the importance of collecting observational data to design and evaluate the health and
economic cost of AIDS orphans at the household and community levels. Analysis of cost of care,
social consequences, and coping strategies at household level aimed at populations or specific
subgroups may produces data that are informative, insightful, and broadly useful in the planning
of activities to cater for children orphaned by AIDS with the ultimate goal of reducing poverty,
first at household then community- at-large. This study therefore aimed to evaluate the cost of
care, social consequences, and coping strategies of AIDS orphans living with their surviving
parent or another family in selected rural and urban towns of southwest of Nigeria for the
purpose of providing data that may be used to formulate policies and programs that will address
the problems of AIDS orphans and related consequences.

Study: "Intergenerational and Long -Term Effects of Maternal Malnutrition on Children's Health
and Economic Outcomes."
PI(s),Institution(s): Winnie Fung, Harvard University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: September, 2008 – August 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Individual and Community Effects Regression Models
Country(ies): China
Summary: Developing countries today face the paradoxical dual burden of malnutrition and
obesity. It has been hypothesized that early childhood malnutrition leads to a higher risk of adult
obesity, although evidence is mixed. This research studies the health outcomes and health
behaviors of 30- to-45-year-olds who were born during the 1959 to 1961 Chinese Famine and
finds that women who were exposed to famine as infants have a higher BMI (0.84 kg/m2) and
are more likely to be obese (by 5 percentage points) than women who were not exposed to
famine. The effect of famine exposure increases along the BMI distribution. The stu dy does not
find significant effects on obesity for men, nor does it find evidence that the increase in BMI is
differentially greater for the famine cohorts who are exposed to a food- rich environment in later
life than for the famine cohorts who are not. Using detailed individual -level data on food intake
and physical activities, the study shows that the increase in BMI for famine-exposed women is
not due to higher fat intakes nor to more sedentary lifestyles. A biological rather than a
behavioral mechanism appears to underlie the association between early childhood malnutrition
and adult obesity.

Study: "How Beliefs about HIV Affect Fertility, Infant and Child Mortality, and Child
Schooling Decisions in Rural Malawi"
PI(s), Institution(s): Gil Shapira, University of Pennsylvania
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – August 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Dynamic lifecycle model, MV regression
Country(ies): Malawi

23. 23

Summary: This project analyzes how women’s beliefs about their own HIV status affect fertility
and intergenerational investments in human capital in rural Malawi. It also evaluates the scope
for different policy interventions to affect fertility patterns, infant and child mortality, and child
schooling.

The researcher develop s a dynamic lifecycle model of women’s decision-making with
regard to fertility and schooling of children in an environment of uncertainty about own HIV
status. The uncertainty about own health status implies uncertainty about the length of one’s own
life and the probability of infant mortality. I structurally estimate the model using the Malawi
Diffusion and Ideational Change Project data set, collected in three rural regions of the country
between 1998 and 2008. I use the estimated model to make quantitative predictions about the
impact of a range of actual and hypothetical policies. Examples of such policies include (but are
not limited to) increasing access to educational and health facilities and services, provision of
antiretroviral drugs, and different cash transfer schemes.

Study: "Social Networks and the Diffusion of Information and Technology in a Biofortification
Program in Uganda"
PI(s), Institution(s): Scott McNiven, University of C alifornia-Davis
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2009 – August 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial and follow-up surveys
Country(ies): Uganda
Summary: This research studied the diffusion of a biofortified crop through social networks and
the impact on maternal and child health. With the goal of reducing micronutrient deficiencies,
biofortification programs encourage farm households to adopt newly bred crop varieties that are
denser in the deficient micronutrients. Biofortification programs are being tested in poor rural
areas with weak formal product markets, so the crop and information about it diffuse by word of
mouth through social networks. Thus, the architecture of social networks and strength of social
norms like altruism, trust, and reciprocity will influence how rapidly, to where, and to whom the
technology diffuses. By leveraging an existing prospective randomized controlled trial of a
biofortified sweet potato in Uganda, this research estimated the impact both of the program and
of social networks and norms on child and maternal health and on crop adoption. Additional data
collection will help estimate the spatial and temporal extent of crop and nutrition knowledge
diffusion and the role of social networks therein.

Study: "Effects of gaining access to health infrastructure and the economic impacts of early
childhood nutrition: Evidence of Post-Apartheid South Africa"
PI(s), Institution(s): Tanaka Shinsuke, Boston University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Difference- in-Difference Community Fixed Effects, Cohort Fixed Effects
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: Whether user fees for basic health services should be charged or abolished to the
poor has recently been debated. This study examines the impact of removing user fees on child

24. 24

health status in South Africa. The study’s main innovation is to exploit plausibly the exogenous
variation in access to free healthcare, due to the fact that black Africans under apartheid could
exercise little political power and residential choice. By comparing health development across ex
ante similar children, the study finds that free healthcare improved the health status of boys, but
not of girls. Falsification exercises suggest that the results are not driven by preexisting trends or
unobserved changes.

Study:
“Lower Fertility Rates, Smaller Family Sizes, and Social Networks: A Cross -Cultural
Investigation.”
PI(s), Institution(s): Neha Gondal, Rutgers University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012
Data Source(s): Cross -sectional
Methods: Binary Logistic Regression and Network Simulation-Based Methodology
Country(ies): Cross -national
Summary: Increasingly, we live in a world made up of smaller families. While research has
delved into many of the socioeconomic and demographic consequences of falling fertility rates,
relatively little is known about its implications on the structures and meanings of relationships in
which people are embedded. Using regression analysis and Exponential Random Graph Models,
this research investigates if individuals with fewer siblings, experience, negotiate, and construct
meanings of relationships differently from those with larger families. In addition, the research
explores if they tend to occupy distinctive network structural positions.

Study: "HIV/AIDS, Life Expectancy, and Fertility and Savings Decisions: How Shocks to Life
Expectancy Affect Behavior”
PI(s), Institution(s): Erick Gong, University of California -Berkeley
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: July, 2010 – October, 2011
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional and Weather Data
Methods: matching data on an individual's HIV status to data on exposure to recent negative
income shocks
Country(ies): sub- Saharan Africa
Summary: We examine the effects that economic conditions have on the AIDS epidemic in sub-
Saharan Africa. Using data from nineteen countries, we find that income shocks lead to
substantial increases in HIV prevalence. We match biomarker data on individuals' HIV status
from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to data on local rainfall, an exogenous source of
variation in income for rural households. Infection rates for women (men) in HIV-endemic rural
areas increase significantly by 14% (11%) for every drought event in the previous 10 years.
These increases appear driven by an outward shift in the supply of transactional sex. We estimate
that income shocks explain up to 20% of the variation in HIV prevalence across African
countries.

Study: "Child Development Program, Child Health, Women's Labor Supply and Education of
Older Female Children in India"
PI(s), Institution(s): Monica Jain, UC Riverside
Funding Scheme: IIE

25. 25

Fellowship Dates: August 2010 – August 2012
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional
Methods: Matching and Difference-in-Difference Estimators
Country(ies): India
Summary: India is home to the largest malnourished child population in the world, with around
80 million children. India’s flagship program and the only national program for combating
malnutrition of children is the Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS). This research
takes advantage of data from the 2005 to 2006 National Family Health Survey on ICDS, which
for the first time provides nationwide data on usage of ICDS services at the child level, to look at
the impact of its Supplementary Nutrition Program on children’s growth. In addition to the
adverse health effects that malnourished children experience, they also increase the burden of
caregivers This paper analyzed the effects of increased costs to child care on the labor supply of
women and the educational attainment of older female children (absentee mothers).

Study: “Life Expectancy, Demographic Changes and Welfare: The Case of Sub -Saharan Africa
during the Last Half-Century”
PI(s), Institution(s): Bouba Housseini, Universite Laval
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013
Data Source(s): Panel Data
Methods: Panel database
Country(ies): Sub- Saharan Africa
Summary: The main outcome of this essay is to know how the evaluation of development is
altered if changes in life expectancy and population size are considered in addition to economic
growth. We will also simulate the effect of fixing factors and then compare the results with those
of actual rankings. The joint expected effect of life expectancy and population size on social
welfare is not easily predictable since it depends on i) how the two factors affect per capita
income, ii) how the two factors interact with each other, and iii) which of the two effects
dominates. All these various points remain somewhat a priori ambiguous according to the
existing literature. We expect therefore that adding gains in life expectancy and population sizes
in social evaluation may help improve the assessment of development compared to that given by
looking at income growth solely.

Study: “Maternal and Child Health Outcomes in Zambia: Investigating Poverty, Equity and
Demand Effects”
PI(s), Institution(s): Chama Chitalu Miriam, University of Pretoria
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): Zambia
Summary: This study plans to investigate how changes in poverty affect Zambian maternal and
child health, especially analyzing equity effects in the utilization of health services.

Study: “Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Environment”

26. 26

PI(s), Institution(s): Muhammad Farhan Majid, UC Riverside
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional
Methods: Family Level Fixed Effects, OLS regression
Country(ies): Indonesia
Summary: This paper studies the long term effects of maternal fasting during the Islamic holy
month of Ramadan. By exploiting exogenous variation in timing of Ramadan and timing of birth,
including within family members, the study compares outcomes for those potentially exposed to
their mothers fasting to those not exposed. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life
Survey(IFLS) Wave 3, the study shows that those potentially exposed work fewer hours and are
more likely to be self-employed with disproportionate effects on females and rural borns.
Though those exposed have worse adult general health, adult health does not seem to be an
important channel through which exposure affects labor supply outcomes. When family fixed
effects are used, the OLS estimates increase in magnitude suggesting that time invariant family
levels co-variates are not explaining these results.

Study: “Determinants of Fertility and Poverty in Ghana”
PI(s), Institution(s): Nkechi Onuoha, Clark University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2012
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): Ghana
Summary: According to Demographic and Health surveys carried out in sub- Saharan Africa,
Ghana is in the lower range of all the countries surveyed, in terms of children's malnutrition
status. This paper examines what role the number of children present in a household plays on the
nutritional status of children in Ghana from 1988 to 2008. The paper uses micro- level data from
the Ghana Demographic and Health survey for children between the ages of zero and five years,
and includes information on the number of children in each household. In order to control for the
endogenous relationship between the number of household children and child nutritional
outcomes, instrumental variable estimations and spatial filtering models are used. The
preliminary results of the analysis indicate that the presence of more children in the household
has a detrimental impact on child nutritional outcomes, perhaps as a result of a thinner
distribution of resources among children. In addition, the presence of other children in the
household may increase the exposure to infectious diseases. These results suggest that
controlling for other factors such as parent’s education, income, among others; increased fertility
among women in Ghana results in lower nutritional status of their children, and makes an
argument for the need for women to revise their desired family sizes downwards and
control/limit their fertility in order to improve on the general nutritional status of children.

Study: “Childbearing and Motherhood in the Context of HIV/AIDS in South Africa”
PI(s),Institution(s): Christie Sennott, University of Colorado, Boulder
Funding Scheme: IIE
Project Dates: 2011- 2013

27. 27

Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: This study will investigate childbearing patterns among rural South African women,
especially the relationship between HIV prevalence, AIDS mortality, and antiretroviral therapies.

Study: “The Effects of Community-Based Interventions on Women and Children’s Health in
Indonesia”
PI(s), Institution(s): Margaret Triyana, University of Chicago
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2011 – August 2013
Data Source(s): Panel from CCT program
Methods: Instrumental Variables
Country(ies): Indonesia
Summary: This paper examines the effects of a pilot community-based conditional cash transfer
(CCT) program in rural Indonesia on birth outcomes, specifically examining how supply
readiness affects the effectiveness of the CCT program. The results show no statistically
significant changes in low birth weight following the introduction of the program, but there is an
increase in low birth weight in supply ready areas. This suggests better detection in supply ready
areas. In addition, I find that regional differences affect program outcomes. The incidence of low
birth weight is lower in supply ready areas in Java, Indonesia’s main island, while the incidence
of low birth weight is higher in supply ready areas off Java.

Study: “Impact of Agricultural Shock on Family Planning and Women’s Labor Market
Outcomes; Impact of Parent’s Health on Child Labor"
PI(s), Institution(s): Shamma Adeeb Alam , University of Washington
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): Tanzania
Summary: The study plans to investigate if households delay the birth of their next child in
response to income shocks in rural Tanzania.

Study: “Education, Work and Motherhood: Interrelated Life-Cycle Choices Examined in the
United States, Peru and South Africa:
PI(s), Institution(s): Tanya Sue Byker, University of Michigan
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): United States, Peru and South Africa
Summary: The study will examine the impact of fertility on women’s employment outcomes,
especially the effect of fertility timing on labor-force attachment.

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Study: “Dynamic Analysis of Young Women’s Schooling, Marriage, and Fertility Decisions in
Senegal"
PI(s), Institution(s): Catalina Herrera Almanza, Cornell University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): Senegal
Summary: Addresses the impact of early marriage, pregnancy, and family planning on
schooling decisions and the dropout rates of girls

Study: “An Analysis of Population Dynamics, Human Capital Accumulation and Economic
Growth in Nigeria (1980-2010)"
PI(s), Institution(s): Kehinde Ajike Olabiyi, Ibafemi Awolowo University in Nigeria
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): Nigeria
Summary: Assesses the trend and pattern of population dynamics indicators and educational
developments in Nigeria between 1980 and 2010, especially the implications of human capital
accumulation and educational resource.

Study: “Spousal Resource Control, Fertility, and Intra-Household Conflict"
PI(s),Institution(s): Petra Persson, Columbia University
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2013
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies):
Summary: Addresses the impact of economic enforcement of the wife within the household, as
related to the use of contraception, fertility, and incidents of sexual, emotional, and physical
abuse.

Study: “Fertility and Intra-Household Bargaining Responses to the Public Provision of
Childcare in Rio de Janeiro"
PI(s), Institution(s): Maira Emy Nakayama Reimão , University of California, Davis
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2014
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): Brazil
Summary: Researches the mechanisms through which fertility responds to improved access to
childcare.

29. 29

Study: “Evaluating the Impact of a Disruption in Publicly-Provided Contraceptive supply on
Fertility and Health Outcomes in the Philippines"
PI(s), Institution(s): John Michael Ian Sioson Salas , Unversity of California, Irvine
Funding Scheme: IIE
Fellowship Dates: August 2012 – August 2013
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies): Philippines
Summary: Explores fertility and demographic consequences of an exogenous reduction in
publicly-provided contraceptive supply.

30. 30

NWO/WOTRO
Study: "Impact of Reproductive Health Services on Socio-Economic Development In Sub-
Saharan Africa: Connecting Evidence at Macro-, Meso-, and Micro-Level"
PI(s), Institution(s): Ruerd Ruben, Radboud Universit y Nijmegen; Switbert Kamazima,
Muhimbili University, Dar es Salaam; Abiba Longwe; Judith Westeneng; Idda Mosha; Dereck
Chitama; Janine Huisman; Ben d'Excelle; Evert Ketting; Deodatus Kakoko
Funding Scheme: NWO/WOTRO
Project Dates: October, 2008 – November , 2012
Data Source(s): panel & cross-sectional data
Methods: Multilevel analysis, IV
Country(ies): Sub- Saharan Africa, with main focus on Northern Tanzania
Summary: Whereas knowledge regarding the operational design of reproductive health services
is increasingly available, its impact on social and economic development is still poorly
understood. This project and its five sub- projects analyze the relationships and interactions
between reproductive health (RH) and poverty at the individual/household level, community
level, and district level, relying on several data sources. Special attention is given to RH shocks
and the impact of availability and use of reproductive health services on individual/household
poverty. The research relies on enriched DHS surveys, WB-LSMS panel data, and data collected
specifically for this project, followed by a detailed assessment of the likelihood of changes in
wealth status. Additional field research is carried out to assess the demand for and use of RH
services as well as the supply of these services. The combined analyses provide new insights into
how specific reproductive health services can reduce poverty incidence and generate evidence-
based policy and program recommendations.

Study: "Breaking the Cycle: Reproductive Health and Poverty Decline in Rwanda"
PI(s), Institution(s): Pieter Hooimeijer, Utrecht University; Jose Mathai,
National University of
Rwanda; Dieudonne Muhoza Ndaruhuye ; Ignace Habimana Kabano; Joseph Nkurunziza; Tugrul
Temel; Pierre-Claver Rutayisire
Funding Scheme: NWO/WOTRO
Project Dates: January, 2009 – December, 2012
Data Source(s): Cross -sectional
Methods: Bivariate logistic regression
Country(ies): Rwanda
Summary: Despite a high level of economic growth, population growth in Rwanda is still
outpacing the rate of poverty reduction. To create the required surplus of capital and labor
needed for investments in human capital to arrive at economic development, the cycle of
decreasing agricultural productivity, high population growth, and increasing poverty will have to
be broken. Reproductive health could be a key mechanism to break this cycle by addressing the
high levels of infant and child mortality. The central hypothesis is that reproductive health
policies can bring down these levels in the short run and will create the surplus at the household
level to invest in the health and education of the children. The feedback effects on the cost-
recovery of public services will contribute to the required surplus at the national level, enabling
the country to collect the “demographic bonus.”

Study: " Family Planning and Women's Sexual and Economic Empowerment"

31. 31

PI(s), Institution(s): Prof. dr. J.W. Gunning , Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Baltazar Chilundo,
Eduardo Mondlane University, Maputo; Jeremias Ramucesse; postdoc to be determined

Funding Scheme: NWO/WOTRO
Project Dates: January, 2013 – December, 2014
Data Source(s): Panel, Qualitative Interviews
Methods: Randomized Controlled Trial
Country(ies): Sub- Saharan Africa, with main focus on Northern Tanzania
Summary: The proposed research aims to disentangle the bi-directional relationship between
women’s empowerment and family planning. On the one hand, labour market participation
directly affects women’ s financial independence and consequently their decision- making power
and economic autonomy. On the other hand, the ability of women to influence family planning
decisions is strongly influenced by their economic and sexual empowerment. The objective of
this multidisciplinary research is to conduct two independent but interrelated studies in
Mozambique: 1) a quantitative Sexual Behaviour Diaries (SBD) study on women who do not
want to become pregnant within the next 12 months with the objective to examine how women?s
empowerment status, negotiation skills and awareness in combination with specific social and
economic circumstances affect consistent use of family planning methods.

To identify effects this study will be combined with a randomized control intervention of
a Family Planning program; 2) a quantitative Socio-Economic Diaries (SED) study conducted
among pregnant women with the objective to determine how a new born child affects
consumption and savings behaviour within the household, female labour market participation,
time allocation of (female) household members and nutritional intake. The use of high-frequency
quantitative diary data is an innovative method to gain detailed insight into sexual and socio-
economic behaviour. The two studies will be preceded by a qualitative study with the objective
to determine perceptions, attitudes and barriers towards family planning, fertility and intra-
household bargaining. This will allow for a cultural assessment of how much (perceived) power
women have over their sexual and reproductive health and their socio- economic preferences.

32. 32

PRB Center

Study: "The Effects of Health and Demographic Change on Economic Growth: Integrating
Micro and Macro Perspectives "
PI(s), Institution(s): David Weil, Brown University; Andrew Foster, Brown University.
Funding Scheme: PRB Center
Project Dates: June 2007 – August 2010
Data Source(s): Parameters from microanalysis ; panel data; surveys; repeated cross -sections
Methods: Simulation Models and MV analysis; IV econometric and simulation models; cross-
national regression models; 2- stage least squares and multinomial logit
Country(ies): Global , India, Bangladesh
Summary: This project incorporates four sub- projects: (1) The Role of Population in Health-
Income Causality; Population Growth, Land Fragmentation and Groundwater; (2) Composition
Bias in Estimating the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth; and (3) The Long
Term Effects of Child Nutrition and Health on Adult Productivity in Bangladesh. The project
aims to increase the understanding of how investments in health and fertility decline contribute
to economic growth, focusing on the effects of changes in health and demographic structure on
the level of economic activity, the role of demographic change in the sustainable use of
environmental resources, and the long- term effects of early child health and nutrition on adult
productivity. The first subproject looks at the role that population plays in mediating the
relationship between health and income by using microeconomic estimates to build
macroeconomic predictions. The second looks at the ways in which population growth affects
economic well-being through changes in the quality and level of environmental resources. The
third seeks to assess how systematic bias may cause traditional cross-country regression in which
GDP per capita or per worker is compared to some measure of demographic status to understate
the economic benefit or fertility reduction. The fourth uses longitudinal data to link early
nutritional intake, nutritional status, and adult outcomes including productivity.

Study: "Reproductive Health, Empowerment of Women and Economic Prosperity"
PI(s), Institution(s): Elizabeth Frankenberg and Duncan Thomas, Duke University
Funding Scheme: PRB Center
Project Dates: October 2007 – September 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Randomized trial
Country(ies): Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa
Summary: Using experimental and non- experimental micro-level data from Bangladesh,
Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa, we measure the effects of investments in family planning
and reproductive health services on a broad array of indicators of health and well-being of
women, their children, and their families. We pay special attention to estimating the causal
effects of these programs on choices about family planning and reproductive health care, on the
health and well-being of women and children and on the status of women, their economic
productivity, savings, and investment choices. We examine the impact of improvements in
women’s health and empowerment on current and future economic prosperity. We also explore
whether women’s greater propensity to invest in children, relative to men, can be attributed to
differences in preferences, and contrast the attitudes and expectations of males with females. The

33. 33

research provides new insights into the likely causal mechanisms that underlie associations
between population composition and economic growth.

Study: "Reproductive and Overall Health Outcomes and Their Economic Consequences for
Households in Accra, Ghana"
PI(s), Institution(s): Allan Hill, Harvard University; Ernest Aryeetey, University of Ghana;
Kelly Blanchard, Ibis Reproductive Health
Funding Scheme: PRB Center
Project Dates: April 2008 – August 2010
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional Data (Collection)
Methods: Multilevel analysis ,
Country(ies): Ghana
Summary: The analysis indicates that there is a strong and direct connection between women’s
illness (and days of work missed due to children’s illnesses). On the other hand, the impact of
pregnancy and infant care on women’s economic activity is less clear as poorer mothers work
longer hours to compensate. Differentials in fertility are small overall and the total fertility rate is
not much above replacement levels. Women are strongly attached to the labor market; they work
slightly less during pregnancies but return to the labor market right after giving birth. In the long
run, because of women’s duties to their families, children appear to have a direct negative effect
on labor supply. The data show an indirect negative effect through the harmful (but small) long-
term effects of childbearing on women’s health.

Study: "Fertility, Intergenerational Transfers, and Economic Development in South Africa"
PI(s), Institution(s): David Lam, University of Michigan; Murray Leibbrandt, University of
Cape Town
Funding Scheme: PRB Center
Project Dates: June 2008 – May 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: IV econometric
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: This project analyzes links between fertility, intergenerational transfers, and
economic development in South Africa. The project focused on demographic behavior and
economic outcomes at the household level in South Africa, taking advantage of key data
resources: the Cape Area Panel Study (CAPS), the new National Income Dynamics Study
(NIDS), and other South African data sets for identifying the potential impact of reducing teen
fertility on women’s human capital and earnings A major focus of the project was on the
consequences of South Africa’s high level of teen fertility. Most of this teen fertility is non-
marital, and teen mothers are much less likely to finish high school, with potentially important
consequences for their own employment opportunities and for the human capital of their
children. .

Study: "Poverty, Gender Inequities, and Sexual/Reproductive Health: An Impact Evaluation of a
Combined Economic and Psycho- social Intervention in Southern Tanzania"
PI(s), Institution(s): Will Dow, UC Berkeley
Funding Scheme: PRB Center
Project Dates: June 2008 – May 2011

34. 34

Data Source(s): Panel (Data Collection)
Methods: Randomized Controlled T rial
Country(ies): Tanzania
Summary: This project designed, implemented, and evaluated a combined economic and
psycho-social intervention on individual/household economic outcomes and sexual/reproductive
health outcomes among young people aged 18-30 in a rural area of southern Tanzania. The one
year intervention to reduce risky sexual behaviors was implemented as an individual-level
randomized trial with control and treatment arms.. The innovative new intervention offered the
Treatment group a cash reward (similar to conditional cash transfer programs elsewhere) at
4/8/12 months if the individual tested STI negative at that contact. This Treatment intervention
both provided new incentives to reduce risky sexual behaviors, and provided cash which could
directly enhance economic well-being in this marginalized population


Study: "Experimental Approaches to Assessing the Economic Determinants and Consequences
of Contraceptive Adoption in Zambia"
PI(s), Institution(s): Nava Ashraf, Harvard University; Erica Field, Harvard University
Funding Scheme: PRB Center
Project Dates: May 2008 – October 2010
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Randomized Controlled T rial
Country(ies): Zambia
Summary: Little rigorous empirical evidence exists to substantiate claims that access to
reproductive health services and technologies impact the economic lives of women and children,
or that decisions about contraceptive use and fertility respond to improvements in economic
opportunities. We will use survey and experimental data to establish these causal relationships in
urban Zambia. We will assess the impact of increases in access to family planning services on
reported fertility desires, contraceptive use, fertility, and economic outcomes. The baseline
survey and intervention were implemented in Lusaka, Zambia in 2007. A follow-up survey will
facilitate the investigation of the broader impact of contraceptive adoption on outcomes for
women and children, a more thorough analysis of decisionmaking within the household about
fertility and contraceptive adoption, and an investigation of the importance of peer effects.

Study: "35 years Later: Effects of the Matlab Maternal and Child Health and Family Planning
Program on Women’s Economic Empowerment"
PI(s), Institution(s): J ane Menken, University of Colorado; Abdur Razzaque, International
Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b)
Project Date: November 2012 - October 2014
Data Source; Matlab; Panel Data
Methods:
Country: Bangladesh
Summary: Despite the global spread of reproductive health and family planning programs, little
is known about long‐term and multigenerational effects on women’s economic and social
empowerment. This project will provide causal evidence on such effects, over a 35- year period,
of the Matlab Maternal and Child Health and Family Planning Program (MCH‐FP), initiated by
icddr,b in the rural Matlab area of Bangladesh in 1977.

35. 35


Study: Fertility Timing and Women’s Economic Outcomes in South Africa
PI(s), Institution(s): Murray Leibbrandt, University of Cape Town; David Lam, University
of Michigan.
Project Date: November 2012 to October 2014
Data Source: NIDS
Country: South Africa
Methods:
Summary: This project uses unique longitudinal data to analyze the impact of fertility timing on
women’s long- run economic outcomes in South Africa, especially on the impacts of teen
childbearing; more generally, the timing of first birth; and the number of children on a wide
range of long-run economic outcomes, including employment, earnings, migration, and poverty
transitions.

36. 36

PRB Dissertation Fellows

Study: "Demographic Change and the Structure of Wages: A Demand -Theoretic Analysis for
Brazil"
PI(s), Institution(s): Ernesto Amaral, University of Texas, Austin
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2006- 2007
Data Source(s): Census data
Methods: MV analysis
Country(ies): Brazil
Summary: With rapidly declining fertility and increased longevity the age structure of the labor
force in developing countries has changed rapidly. Changing relative supply of workers by age
group, and by educational attainment, can have profound effects on labor costs. Their impacts on
earnings have been heavily studied in the United States but have received little attention in Asia
and Latin America, where supply shocks are at least as large and have often proceeded less
evenly across the economy. Using data on 502 local Brazilian labor markets from Censuses
1970-2000, the study examines the extent of substitution among demographic groups as relative
supply has changed. The results suggest that age-education groups are imperfect substitutes, so
that larger age- education cohorts see depressed wage rates, particularly among more-educated
groups. The extent of substitution has increased over time, so that the decreasing size of the
least-skilled labor force today is barely raising its remaining members' wages.

Study: "Microeconomic impact of HIV Disease among female bar/hotel workers in Northern
Tanzania"
PI(s), Institution(s): Tony Ao, Harvard University
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2006- 2008
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional
Methods: MV Logistic Regression M odel and Propensity Score Matching
Country(ies): Tanzania
Summary: The link between economic status and HIV infection is debatable. In the absence of
prospective individual-level economic data, we used propensity score matching to help identify a
relationship between HIV and economic outcomes among female bar workers and female hotel
workers in Moshi, Tanzania.

Study: "Measuring the Impact of Young Adult Mortality on the Well-Being of Older Persons in
KwaZulu Natal, SA"
PI(s), Institution(s): Marjorie Opuni -Akuamoa, Johns Hopkins
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2006- 2008
Data Source(s): KwaZulu -Natal Income Dynamics Survey (KIDS)
Methods: Ordered Probit, fixed effects
Country(ies): South Africa

37. 37

Summary: The specific aims of this study are to: 1) Assess whether the occurrence of a young
adult death affects the probabilities of not working, working part-time and working full time for
non-pensionable older women (aged 50-59) and non- pensionable men (aged 50- 64); 2) to assess
if the occurrence of a young adult death is associated with the value of assets households were
persons aged 50 years and above live; and 3) to examine if the occurrence of a young adult death
affects the self-reported health status of persons aged 50 years and above.


Study: "The Hidden Cost of Migration: Effect of Brother’s Migration on Sister’s Marriage
Outcomes in Rural Bangladesh"
PI(s), Institution(s): Ali Protik , Brown University
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2006- 2007
Data Source(s): Matlab Demographic Surveillance System
Methods: Matching, Fixed-effects logistic regression
Country(ies): Bangladesh
Summary: This paper examines the effect of brother’s migration on the marriage patterns of
sisters in a rural area of Bangladesh. It has been proposed that when sons are migrants, especially
when accompanied by their spouses, parents become more willing to marry their daughters
nearby to secure care support for their old- age. Such willingness arises because of a missing
market for care. Using a rich dataset from the Demographic Surveillance System in Matlab,
Bangladesh, which contains 20 years of marriage and migration records from 1974 to 1996,
supplemented by a 1974 baseline census, the study compares women who face similar marriage
prospects but differ by their brother’s migration status. Consistent with the theoretical
predictions of a general equilibrium model, the study shows strong evidence that women with
migrant brothers are more likely to marry someone from the same village and are also more
likely to marry someone with lower human capital.


Study: "Civil Wars beyond their Borders: The Human Capital and Health Consequences of
Hosting Refugees"
PI(s), Institution(s): Javier Baez, Syracuse University
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2007- 2008
Data Source(s): Cross -sectional, longitudinal, and weather data
Methods: Double and triple difference analysis
Country(ies): Tanzania
Summary: In early 1994, Kagera, a region in northwestern Tanzania, was flooded by more than
500,000 refugees fleeing from the genocides of Burundi and Rwanda. Using this population
shock and a series of topographic barriers that resulted in variation in refugee intensity, this
research investigates the short-term and long-term causal effects of hosting refugees on outcomes
of local children. This strategy provides evidence of adverse effects over one year after the
shock: a worsening of children’s anthropometrics (0.3 standard deviations); an increase in the
incidence of infectious diseases (15 percentage points to 20 percentage points); and an increase
in mortality for children under age 5 (7 percentage points).

38. 38

Study: “Experimental Approaches to Assessing the Economic Determinants and Consequences
of Contraceptive Adoption in Zambia”
PI(s), Institution(s): Jean Nahrae Lee, Harvard University
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2007- 2009
Data Source: Prospective Data Collection
Methods: Field Experiment
Country: Zambia
Summary: This dissertation focuses on the effects of contraceptive availability on economic
outcomes, male involvement and bargaining effects, and peer effects on adoption.

Study: "A Space-Time Model of Fertility and Development in China, 1982- 2000"
PI(s), Institution(s): Katherine King, University of Michigan
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2007- 2009
Data Source(s): Census Data with GIS maps
Methods: Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and Spatial Panel Regression Models
Country(ies): China
Summary: Although China is extremely regionally diverse and fertility policy is implemented at
a local level, yet research often implicitly assumes spatial homogeneity. This paper applies
exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial panel regression models to examine county
level variation in fertility rates in China. Spatial statistics reduce bias resulting from spatial and
temporal autocorrelation in regression models, while spatial analysis allows detailed examination
of relationships between pairs of predictors. Using county-level data from China’s 1982, 1990,
and 2000 censuses, the study models general fertility rates and changes in rates using variables
related to social economic development characteristics of the counties. While previous results
from earlier studies showed a decline in the association of development factors with fertility, the
2000 census data shows that development factors have re-appeared as important predictors of
fertility rates.


Study: "Women's Property Rights and Gendered Policies: Implications for women's long-term
welfare in rural Tanzania"
PI(s), Institution(s): Amber Peterman , University of North
Carolina-Chapel Hill
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2007- 2009
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Woman -level fixed effects, MV regression models
Country(ies): Tanzania
Summary: This paper evaluates effects of community-level women’s property and inheritance
rights (WPIR) on women’s economic outcomes using a 13- year longitudinal panel from rural
Tanzania. In the preferred model specification, inverse probability weighting (IPW) is applied to
a woman-level fixed effects model to control for individual-level time invariant heterogeneity
and attrition. Results indicate that changes in WPIR are significantly associated with changes in
women’s employment outside the home, self-employment, and earnings. Results are not limited

39. 39

to subgroups of marginalized women. Findings indicate that lack of gender equity in sub- Saharan
Africa may inhibit economic development for women and society as a whole.


Study: "Aggregate Impact of AIDS on Development"
PI(s), Institution(s): Raul Santaeulalia
-Llopis, University of Pennsylvania
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2007- 2008
Data Source(s): D emographic and E conomic data
Methods: Population M odel
Country(ies): Global
Summary: This dissertation studies the consequences of the AIDS epidemic for economic
development, and builds a population model that keeps track of the demographic transition by
age-specific population groups relating the age distribution of the population of each period to
the preceding one via a fertility process, a mortality process and an aging process. This
population model is integrated into a standard theory of economic development that determines
the income per capita path along the process of industrialization—a transition that structurally
shifts capital and labor from a Malthusian-agricultural sector to a neoclassical-industrial sector.
Using this population model to consistently identify the main channels through which AIDS, and
raising mortality rates of young adults and lowering fertility rates, affects populations over time:
(i) reshapes the age distribution of the population, thinning the ranks of working-age groups (the
share of children and old adults per worker raises by as much as 20- 25% in highly infected
countries), (ii) reduces population growth (by as much as .08% per percentage point of HIV
prevalence), and (iii) reduces life expectancy (by as much as 15-20 years). In addition, AIDS
also (iv) reduces the individual labor efficiency of the sick with an aggregate loss of 0.3% per
percentage point of HIV prevalence. When the AIDS epidemic is in corporated into the model as
in (i)-(iv) into a model economy calibrated to an African country unaffected by AIDS, the study
shows that the AIDS epidemic reduces per capita income.

Study: "Welfare Consequences of Coresidence With the Mother-In-Law in Patriarchal Joint
Families for Women and Children: Evidence From India and Bangladesh"
PI(s), Institution(s): Rekha Varghese, University of Chicago
Funding Scheme: PRB Dissertation Fellowship
Project Dates: 2007- 2009
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional
Methods: Instrumental V ariables, D ifference- in-Difference, and Propensity S core W eighted
Regressions
Country(ies): India and Bangladesh
Summary: In many Asian, Arab, and African countries, where the patriarchal joint family is
ubiquitous, most rural women live with their mother -in-law during early married life. During the
years when women make vital fertility and human capital decisions, they are under the
supervision of the mother-in-law. The dissertation explores the effects of this intergenerational-
within-gender power dynamics on the welfare of women and children of India and Bangladesh.

40. 40

RCN
Study: "Implications of High Fertility in Developing Countries - a multilevel analysis based on
DHS data"
PI(s), Institution(s): Oystein Kravdal, University of Oslo; Ivy Kodzi
Funding Scheme: RCN
Project Dates: January 2010 – February 2013
Data Source(s): Multiple DHS
Methods: Multilevel regression
Country(ies): All countries in sub- Saharan Africa that have had DHS surveys
Summary: The primary goal of this project is to assess the importance of a woman’s fertility
(wanted and unwanted) and the level of fertility (alternatively, population growth or change in
age structure in the village, district, or province) on her children’s welfare measured by
indicators such as mortality, nutritional status, and education. Few studies have examined
the effects of high fertility or population growth at a subnational level, and there has been very
little interest in separating effects of aggregate-level fertility from effects of individual fertility.
The study will control for the educational level of the woman and the average education at the
relevant level of aggregation, as well as various other factors that may have a bearing on fertility.
It will also explore how individual and aggregate education (and women’s autonomy) influence
fertility through various pathways. Throughout the project, the study will take into account that
key effects may be context-dependent. In addition, this research will explore the possibility that
the effects on child outcomes may depend on the child’s gender and the gender composition of
his or her siblings.

Study: "Fertility and Poverty: the role of gender and reproductive health"
PI(s), Institution(s): An -Magritt Jensen, Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Funding Scheme: RCN
Project Dates: April 2010 – March 2013
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional HH Data; Interviews
Methods: Qualitative and quantitative
Country(ies): Kenya
Summary: The rationale for our project is the worldwide fertility decline: Fertility has dropped
below the replacement level in an increasing number of countries. Kenya is an exception to this
general picture. The fertility decline from the end of the 1980s was projected to continue;
however, along with some other sub- Saharan countries, the decline was stalled and fertility
remains high. Given the scope and magnitude of global fertility development, Kenya stands out
as a particular case and little research at the household level is available.
This project is a follow-up on two case studies in Kenya carried out between 1987 and
1991. The principal objective is to understand the fertility stall in the context of poverty: What
happened in Kenya and why? Our objectives are as follows: to explore the impact on gender
systems in two different cultural and religious contexts; to comprehend the interplay with
fertility and poverty; to analyze ways in which reproductive health and child mortality impact
fertility and poverty in the household; and to synthesize findings from case studies and large-
scale surveys.

Study: "Fertility outcomes and the roles of children in household risk management strategies in
rural West Africa: the cases of Senegal and Benin"

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PI(s), Institution(s): Morten Bøås, Fafo; Anne Kielland
Funding Scheme: RCN
Project Dates: January 2010 – December 2012
Data Source(s): Cross -Sectional (Data Collection)
Methods: Adaptive S ampling D esign, S urveys, Focus G roups; Descriptive Analysis, Propensity
Score Matching
Country(ies): Senegal and Benin
Summary: The research aims to identify and document the various roles children play in the
household risk- management efforts of poor rural families in West Africa. Mechanisms related to
child mobility will be a main focus. On the one hand, does child mobility allow for higher
fertility, and on the other hand, does it play a strategic role in the mitigation and coping efforts of
households dealing with critical risks and shocks? Two main types of shocks serve as central
variables: those related to the impact of climatic shocks on household production (covariate), and
those related to the death of an adult breadwinner in the household (idiosyncratic).

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Study: "Gender of Children, Education, and Occupational Choice in Nepal"
PI(s), Institution(s): Magnus Hatlebakk, Chr. Michelsen Institute; Ottar Maestad; Gaute
Torsvik; Arild Aakvik; Bal Kumar; Yogendra Gurung; Anjushree Pradhan
Funding Scheme: RCN
Project dates: December 2010 – December 2013
Data Source(s): Cross -sectional (Data Collection)
Methods: Descriptive statistics & IV and OLS regression
Country(ies): Nepal
Summary: The CMI-led project investigates implications of preference for sons in Nepal on
economic decisions and outcomes. Gender of the firstborn child is used as a natural experiment,
and the research team investigates direct effects on allocation of investments between education,
dowry, and physical capital; as well as indirect effects via the number of children. The study also
investigates how these decisions affect labor market participation and poverty.

Study: "West African Reproductive Health Costs: An in depth study into associations between
poverty and access to emergency pregnancy health care"
PI(s), Institution(s): Johanne Sundby, Unversity of Oslo; Katerini Storeng; Fatoumata Outtara,
Mamdey Cham; Veronique Filippi
Funding Scheme: RCN
Project Dates: January 2010 – December 2012
Data Source(s): Panel & Surveillance (Data Collection)
Methods: Qualitative, IV econometric
Country(ies): Burkina Faso and the Gambia
Summary: The project examines the dynamic relationship between reproductive health and
poverty in two sub-Saharan African countries, focusing on women’s lived experiences relating to
care-seeking for pregnancy, delivery, and abortion within a context of weak health systems and
endemic poverty. The relationship between reproductive health and poverty is today widely
acknowledged at the international level: Universal access to reproductive health care, as well as
reductions in pregnancy-related death, have been endorsed at the global level as targets for
measuring progress toward the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the
dominant international development paradigm for poverty reduction. Women’s interactions with
poorly functioning, inaccessible, and frequently hostile reproductive health services constitute an
intrinsic part of the experience of being poor. In recent years there have been urgent calls for
focused research on the dynamic relationship between poverty and various aspects of
reproductive health, including maternal health and abortion.
This study’s focus is pregnancy-related health and the underlying problems of high
mortality and morbidity from pregnancy and abortion complications, difficult access to health
services, poor quality of services, and high costs associated with emergency care. This
multidisciplinary research team in Burkina Faso and the Gambia looks into the dynamic
relationship between reproductive health and poverty, building
on and expanding existing research collaborations. Local researchers in both countries are
serving as principal investigators in the field, and research fellows in Norway will also work on
these studies. The team consists of economists, anthropologists, medical doctors, and midwives.

Study: "
Girls’ Economic Power: The Best Contraceptive? - A Randomized Controlled Trial in
Tanzania"

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PI(s), Institution(s): Bertil Tungodden, Chr. Michelsen Institue, Bergen, Norway; Femina HIP,
Dar-Es-Salam, Tanzania
Funding Scheme: RCN
Project Dates: January 2013 – December 2014
Data Source(s): Surveys
Methods: Randomized control trial
Country(ies): Tanzania
Summary: The main objective of the study: is to increase our understanding of young girls?
Fertility decisions and how these decisions interact with their economic situation. The present
study will take place in Tanzania where the majority of girls start childbearing at the age of 16 to
20 years, and will investigate the fertility decisions of girls when they are on the verge of making
two of the most important decisions in their lives: What to do when leaving school and whether
to start childbearing.
Using a randomized controlled trial methodology; we will offer two different treatments
to a randomly selected sample of girls; an information treatment
and an opportunity treatment. The information treatment will offer practical and empowering
information about reproductive health, such as information about contraception and the
consequences of risky sexual behavior, and information a bout gender equality, and women’s
empowerment. The opportunity treatment will aim at expanding the economic opportunities of
girls, by providing them with knowledge on how to run their own business. By comparing the
two treatments, we can shed light on what is more effective in changing the fertility and
economic aspirations of young girls: providing information or changing their economic
opportunities?
An ultimate goal of this research project is to inform the design of sound policies, and
thus we will be particularly careful to develop a cost-effective intervention with scaling-up
potential: all treatments will be evaluated and compared not only in terms of impact but also on
their relative economic costs. The interventions are based on current practices of our partners,
which make it easier to scale up successful parts of the project.

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World Bank

Study: "The Determinants of Sex-Selective Abortions"
PI(s), Institution(s): Claus Portner, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: 2006
Data Source(s): Survey
Methods: Econometric model
Country(ies): India
Summary: There is an unequal sex ratio in India which is due to: traditionally strong son
preference, excess mortality for girls, and d eclining fertility. The rate of sex selective abortions
has risen due to legal abortion (from 1971), access to pre-natal sex determination, increasing sex
ratio at birth in India. This study contributes a theoretical model of fertility and abortion
decision, new empirical method based on theory, evidence on spread and use.

Study: "Socioeconomic Impact of Reducing Premature Adult Mortality: The Case of
Antiretroviral Treatment for HIV/AIDS Patients"
PI(s), Institution(s): Damien de Walque, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: January 2007 – June, 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Difference- in-Difference, Fixed Effects, OLS regression
Country(ies): Rwanda, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mozambique, and South Africa
Summary: The objective of this study is to measure the socioeconomic impact of reductions in
adult mortality due to HIV/AIDS at the household level. The study will examine the
socioeconomic benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Beyond prolonging lives, which is the
first-order benefit of treatment, the distribution of antiretroviral therapy is expected to produce a
socioeconomic benefit for the entire household: both the patient and the family members who
have been giving him or her care should be able to return to the labor market; the children should
be able to return to school; and, the welfare of the family should increase. It will also analyze
impact across genders, and will measure these effects using a set of longitudinal household and
health facility surveys being conducted in several countries. This evaluation will also determine
the conditions that maximize these socioeconomic effects, by comparing different delivery
modes and assessing which ones are more likely to not only promote adherence and postpone the
development of resistance, but also maximize the socioeconomic benefits of ART.

Study: "Child Quality over Quantity"
PI(s), Institution(s): F. Halsey Rogers, The World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: January 2007 - June 2011
Data Source(s): LSMS, DHS, and cross-sectional (data collection)
Methods: IV econometric
Country(ies): Vietnam
Summary: This study focuses on the “quantity-quality trade-off” hypothesis of childbearing and
child raising: When parents have the ability to limit fertility, the result may not only be smaller
numbers of children but also higher investment in each child’s human capital. The research team

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investigates the extent to which fertility decline and smaller family sizes globally and
specifically in Vietnam are making it possible for households to invest more in their children’s
education—not only through leaving them in school longer, but also by increasing direct outlays
on private tutoring and schooling generally.

Study: "Fertility & Women’s Labor Force Participation in Developing Countries"
PI(s), Institution(s): Maria Porter, University of Oxford ; Elizabeth King, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: January 2007 – June 2011
Data Source(s): Pooled DHS
Methods: IV econometric
Country(ies): Global
Summary: This study focuses on the relationship between fertility outcomes and women’s labor
market behavior. As fertility declines around the world, childbearing patterns change in three
ways: women may delay their first birth, space their births, or stop having children at an earlier
age than previous cohorts. Indeed, the pattern of fertility change differs considerably around the
world. Each of these changes is likely to have a different impact on the ability of women to work
outside the home and on the decisions they make regarding work and childbearing.

Study: "Demographic change & Women’s Work and Earnings in Bangladesh"
PI(s), Institution(s): Nistha Sinha, World Bank;
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: January 2007 – June 2011
Data Source(s): Matlab panel
Methods: Randomized trial
Country(ies): Bangladesh
Summary: This study examines the impact of fertility and childbearing on the labor force
participation of women in rural Bangladesh. Since fertility is endogenous to other decisions
made by the family, the study separately identifies the impact of changes in fertility on changes
in work by taking advantage of a family planning program selectively introduced in the
subdistrict of Matlab, Bangladesh. The Matlab family planning program significantly reduced
fertility and increased birth spacing. that the study shows that in this setting, fertility has little or
no impact on overall female employment. However, women with longer gaps between births are
more likely to be employed in paid work and less likely to be employed in unpaid work.

Study: “Populations Programs and Reproductive Health"
PI(s), Institution(s): Monica Das Gupta, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: April 2010 – June 2011
Data Source(s): Previously Published Studies
Methods: Literature Review
Country(ies): Low-Income Countries
Summary: There is a very large but scattered literature debating the economic implications of
high fertility. This paper reviews the literature on three themes: (a) Does high fertility affect low-
income countries' prospects for economic growth and poverty reduction? (b) Does population
growth exacerbate pressure on natural resources? and (c) Are family planning programs effective

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at lowering fertility, and should they be publicly funded? The literature shows broad consensus
that while policy and institutional settings are key in shaping the prospects of economic growth
and poverty reduction, the rate of population growth also matters. Recent studies find that low
dependency ratios (as fertility declines) create an opportunity for increasing productivity, savings
and investment in future growth. They find that lower fertility is associated with better child
health and schooling, and better health and greater labor-force participation for women. They
also indicate that rapid population growth can constrain economic growth, especially in low-
income countries with poor policy environments. Population growth also exacerbates pressure on
environmental common property resources. Studies highlight the deep challenges to aligning
divergent interests for managing these resources. However, part of the pressure on these
resources can be mitigated by reducing the rate of population growth. Although family planning
programs are only one policy lever to help reduce fertility, studies find them effective. Such
programs might help especially in the Sub- Saharan African region, where high fertility and
institutional constraints on economic growth combine to slow rises in living standards.

Study: "Determining the Impact of Family Size on Child Welfare across the Developing World"
PI(s), Institution(s): Deon Filmer , World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: January 2007- 2009
Data Source(s): Pooled DHS
Methods: IV econometric
Country(ies): Global
Summary: Much development aid over the past 40 years has been devoted to family planning
on the assumption that information and supply constraints for contraceptive services result in
families larger than demanded and the welfare of each child in a large family subsequently
suffers due to dilution of household resources. However, it is not clear that larger families per se
result in worse outcomes, especially if older children play a role in household production or if
the marginal cost of child investment is low. An improved understanding of the relationship
between fertility and child welfare in developing countries will help inform future policies
related to child investments including the targeting of health or education subsidies or
conditional aid transfers.

Study: "Financial Incentives for Female Births and Parental Investments in Daughters: Evidence
from a Program in North India "
PI(s), Institution(s): Nistha Sinha, World Bank;
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: January 2007 - March 2009
Data Source(s): 2 Indian DHS Surveys
Methods: Difference- in-Difference Analysis
Country(ies): India
Summary: Since the early 1990s, several states in India have introduced financial incentive
programs to discourage son preference among parents and encourage investment in daughters’
education and health. This study evaluates one program in the state of Haryana, Apni Beti Apna
Dhan (“Our Daughter, Our Wealth”). Since 1994, eligible parents in Haryana have been offered
a financial incentive if they give birth to a daughter. The incentive consists of an immediate cash

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grant and a long-term savings bond redeemable on the daughter’s 18th birthday provided she is
unmarried, with additional bonuses for education. Although no specific program participation
data are available, the study estimate s early intent-to-treat program effects on mothers (sex ratio
among live children, fertility preferences) and children (mother’s use of antenatal care, survival,
nutritional status, immunization, schooling) using statewide household survey data on fertility
and child health, and constructing proxies for household and individual program eligibility.

Study: "Marriage Transitions and HIV/AIDS in Malawi"
PI(s), Institution(s): Kathleen Beegle, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: January 2007- June 2011
Data Source(s): Panel data (collection)
Methods: Multivariate regression analysis
Country(ies): Malawi
Summary: The goal of this research project is to collect innovative longitudinal data on a
sample of young adults in Malawi to understand the links between nonmarital relations and
sexual experiences, transitions into marriage, socioeconomic status (both prior to and after
marriage), and the spread of HIV/AIDS. By following a cohort of young, initially never-married
adults, the project seeks to understand the socioeconomic and other conditions that precipitate
marriage, including teenage pregnancies and early marriages. As the study continues and as
individuals marry, we can then explore the fertility outcomes and socioeconomic consequences
associated with marriage, including incidence of HIV/AIDS, and the variation in outcome by the
characteristics of marriages. Specifically, the study follows 1,185 unmarried women and men in
the Salima district in Malawi. The panel started in summer 2007. To date, three rounds of data
have been collected. The respondents will be interviewed for at least three years, continuing to
collect detailed socioeconomic information, sexual partnering information, and HIV status of
respondents and their new spouses

Study: "Socio-Economic Consequences of Fertility Decline and Rising Child Sex Ratios in
China"
PI(s), Institution(s): Monica Das Gupta, World Bank; Avraham Ebenstein, Ethan Jennings
Sharygin
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: July 2009 – July 2010

Data Source(s): China Censuses
Methods: Simulation model of China’s Marriage Market
Country(ies): China
Summary: Fertility decline has fueled a sharp increase in the proportion of “missing girls” in
China, so an increasing share of males will fail to marry, and will face old age without the
support normally provided by wives and children. This paper shows that historically, China has
had nearly universal marriage for women and a very competitive market for men. Less educated
men experience higher rates of bachelorhood while women favor men with better prospects,
migrating if needed from poorer to wealthier areas. The authors examine the anticipated effects
of this combination of bride shortage and hypergamy, for different regions in China.

Study: "The Effects of Cash Transfer Programs on ECD of Adolescent Girls"

48. 48

PI(s), Institution(s): Berk Ozler, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: April 2010- June 2011
Data Source(s): Panel (Data Collection)
Methods: Randomized Controlled trial
Country(ies): Malawi
Summary: “Schooling, Income, and HIV Risk” is a two- year intervention that took place
between January 2008 and December 2009 in the Zomba district of Malawi. The program
provided cash transfers to households with school-age girls between the ages of 13 and 22 and
never-married at baseline.

Study: "Conditional Cash Transfers and HIV Prevention"
PI(s), Institution(s): Harsha Thirumurthy , World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: April 2010- June 2011
Data Source(s): Panel
Methods: Randomized trial
Country(ies): South Africa
Summary: The study will examine the effect of an innovative, multilevel HIV prevention
intervention that will jointly address both structural and social factors contributing to young
women’s increased vulnerability to HIV. The goal of the study is to determine whether providing
cash transfers to poor young women and their households conditional on school attendance
reduces young women’s HIV risk, and whether combining the cash transfer program with a
community mobilization program focused on young men further reduces that risk.
The objective of the cash transfer intervention is to reduce structural barriers to education
and increase the school attendance of young women, thereby decreasing their HIV risk.
Mobilization activities aim to educate young men about gender norms, intimate partner violence,
and HIV risk; and to encourage them to protect young women and reduce HIV risk in their
communities. The study design involves individually randomizing the households of young
women to receive a monthly cash transfer, conditional on the young women attending school.
Half of the villages (n=12) where the young women reside will also be randomized to receive a
community mobilization intervention with a particular focus on changing gender norms in young
men.

Study: “Impact of Scholarships on Schooling in Cambodia”
PI(s), Institution(s): Deon Filmer, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: April 2010 – June 2011
Data Source(s): Panel (Ongoing study of Cambodian Children who applied for scholarship
program in 2005)
Methods:
Country(ies): Cambodia
Summary:
These longitudinal data will allow for the evaluation of the impact of the program,
not only on school attainment but on a variety of outcomes including healthy behaviors, risk
taking, and fertility.

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Study: “The Effects of Crisis on Women’s Reproductive Behavior, and the W elfare of the N ext
Generation”
PI(s), Institution(s): Matthias Lundberg, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: April 2010- June 2011
Data Source(s):
Methods:
Country(ies):
Summary:

Study: "Climate Volatility, Fertility, and Infant Mortality"
PI(s), Institution(s): Jed Friedman, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: April 2010- June 2011
Data Source(s): Pooled DHS
Methods: Fixed effects, Multiple Regression, Linear Probability Model
Country(ies): sub- Saharan Africa
Summary: This study will investigate the relation between extreme weather events, climate
volatility, and infant survival in Africa, with a focus on socio- economic mediators of this relation
as well as fertility responses to weather induced infant mortality. The project leverages all
existing sub-Saharan African DHS surveys that contain household location coordinates - these
results and maps the birth outcomes reported by these households to daily temperature and
rainfall estimates valid for a 50x50 kilometer area over the period 1977- 2002. Exposure to
extreme heat and rainfall events, both in-utero and after birth, are related to survival at 12 months
in a flexible and robust manner. The same robust class of estimators is applied to subsequent
fertility timing after severe weather shocks and possible infant death in order to explore the joint
influence of weather induced mortality on fertility decisions. Exploiting the timing of weather
shocks and the gender of the child illuminates the differential pathways - either the direct effects
of extreme weather or socio-economic consequences of weather shocks - that weather variability
affects both mortality and subsequent fertility decisions. Empirical estimates will then be applied
to various climate change scenarios and various mitigation strategies discussed.

Study: "Family Size and Investments in Early Childhood Development in Ecuador"
PI(s), Institution(s): Norbert Schady, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: July 2006 – June 2011
Data Source(s): Panel (Data Collection)
Methods:
Country(ies): Ecuador
Summary: Two rounds of longitudinal data collection on children and their HHs, including
cognitive tests, achievement tests, anthropometrics, and HH information.

Study: "Demographic Trends, Economic Grwoth and Distribution Dynamics"
PI(s), Institution(s): Maurizio Bussolo, World Bank
Funding Scheme: World Bank
Project Dates: January 2007 – June 2011

50. 50

Data Source(s): Global Trade Analysis Program macro-economic data and global database with
household surveys of 95 developing countries
Methods: Global general equilibrium model and micro-simulation
Country(ies): Global
Summary: The research proposed here will analyze the economic impacts of a delayed or a
quickened decline in fertility rates in developing countries. Four hypotheses will be tested:
1. Delay of the decline in fertility rates will during the next
two decades;
2. Increase income inequality and slow poverty reduction;
3. Slow the increase in urbanization rates;
4. Strain education systems, making Millennium
Development Goals more difficult to achieve. The study will use a combination of macro models
(economy- wide general equilibrium models) and micro models (based on household survey
data). The main methodological contribution of the study will be the development of methods
that make the macro and micro approaches more mutually consistent, which is a still under-
researched area.