princibles of managements for safty and risk

management

1. RiskandSafety Risk

and

Safety

in
Engineering
Prof. Dr. Michael Havbro Faber
Swiss Federal Institute of Technolo
gygy
ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

2. Contents of Today's Lecture Th i i f h l
il ff
•
Th
e organ
i
sat
i
on o
f
t
h
e
l
ecture – pract
i
ca
l
stu
ff

•
Why risk and safety in engineering? Why

risk

and

safety

in

engineering?

•
Decision problems in engineering
•
Examples
•
The lecture program
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

3. Organisation of the Lecture
•
Course webpage address is: http://www.ibk.ethz.ch/fa/education/ws_safety/index
•
Available on course webpage:
ƒLecture notes for the entire course
(
non-
p
rintable version
)
(
p)
ƒExercises
ƒExercise Solutions
ƒ
Print edition of lecture notes for the entire course is available for a cost of CHF 45.
ƒ
PowerPoint presentations for each lecture will be uploaded on the webpage
the
ƒ
PowerPoint

presentations

for

each

lecture

will

be

uploaded

on

the

webpage

the

latest one day before the respective lecture.
•
Support will be available
you are welcome to contact
Prof Michael Faber in
room
•
Support

will

be

available
–
you

are

welcome

to

contact

Prof
.
Michael

Faber

in

room

HIL E 23.3 or contact Harikrishna Narasimhan in room HIL E 13.1 or by email
([email protected])
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

4. Examination
Th f th i l i ti
•
Th
e exam
f
or
th
e course
i
s an ora
l
exam
i
na
ti
on
- the emphasis of the exam is to ensure that a fundamental understanding of
the area of risk and safet in engineering is acq ired b the st dents the

area

of

risk

and

safet
y
in

engineering

is

acq
u
ired

b
y
the

st
u
dents
•
The confirmation (or “testat”) for admission to the examination is fulfilled by attending the lectures of the course.
•
Doctoral students need to take the oral examination in order to
g
et credit
p
oints
gp
for this course.
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

5. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
•
What do engineers do ?
•
What

do

engineers

do

?
-Plan, design, build, maintain and decommission
Infrastructure Roads, water supply systems, tunnels, sewage systems,
waste deposits, power supply systems, channels
Structures houses, hospitals, schools, industry buildings, dams, power p
lants
,
wind turbines
,
offshore
p
latforms
p, , p
-Safeguard
people
environment
SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT!
environment assets
from natural and man made hazards
SUSTAINABLE

DEVELOPMENT

!
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

6. Engineering Decision Making for Society
•
What do engineers do?
•
What

do

engineers

do?
Is what we are doing of any relevance for society?
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

7. Engineering Decision Making for Society Elfhthltdl
•
E
xamp
l
es o
f
w
h
a
t
we
h
e
l
p
t
o
d
eve
l
op
Øresund bridge -Denmark Golden Gate Bridge -USA
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

8. Engineering Decision Making for Society Elfhthltdl
•
E
xamp
l
es o
f
w
h
a
t
we
h
e
l
p
t
o
d
eve
l
op
Big Dig Boston/USA
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

9. Engineering Decision Making for Society Elfhthltdl
•
E
xamp
l
es o
f
w
h
a
t
we
h
e
l
p
t
o
d
eve
l
op
Hoover Dam -USA
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

10. Engineering Decision Making for Society Elfhthltdl
•
E
xamp
l
es o
f
w
h
a
t
we
h
e
l
p
t
o
d
eve
l
op
Hong Kong Island -China
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

11. Engineering Decision Making for Society Hli t t likd t t lh d
•
H
e
l
p
i
ng
t
o con
t
ro
l
r
i
s
k
s
d
ue
t
o na
t
ura
l

h
azar
d
s
Tornados and strong winds
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

12. Engineering Decision Making for Society Hli t t likd t t lh d
•
H
e
l
p
i
ng
t
o con
t
ro
l
r
i
s
k
s
d
ue
t
o na
t
ura
l

h
azar
d
s
Earthquakes
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

13. Engineering Decision Making for Society Hli t t likd t d dti
•
H
e
l
p
i
ng
t
o con
t
ro
l
r
i
s
k
s
d
ue
t
o
d
egra
d
a
ti
on
CorrosionFatigue
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

14. Engineering Decision Making for Society Hli t t likd t id t
•
H
e
l
p
i
ng
t
o con
t
ro
l
r
i
s
k
s
d
ue
t
o acc
id
en
t
s
FiresExplosions
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

15. Engineering Decision Making for Society Hli t t likd t l k fk ld
•
H
e
l
p
i
ng
t
o con
t
ro
l
r
i
s
k
s
d
ue
t
o
l
ac
k
o
f

k
now
l
e
d
ge
Over loadDesign error
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

16. Engineering Decision Making for Society Hli t t likd t l l
•
H
e
l
p
i
ng
t
o con
t
ro
l
r
i
s
k
s
d
ue
t
o ma
l
evo
l
ence
Bomb explosionsAirplane impacts
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

17. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
•
Whatareengineersworkingwith?
•
What

are

engineers

working

with

?
Real problems – the real world - nature
Gravity
Dynamics
Concrete
Gravity
Dynamics
Waves
Ice
Snow
Newmaterials
Temperature
Water
Soil
Snow
Rocks
New

materials
Waste
Steel
Wind
Electricity
Chemicals
Waste
Air
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Steel

18. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
•
Howdoengineersworkwiththerealworld?
•
How

do

engineers

work

with

the

real

world

?
Mathematics
Physics
Mathematics
Physics
Models/hypothesis
We model the real world to the “best” of our knowled
g
e
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
g

19. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
•
How do engineers use knowledge ?
In a
p
erfectl
y
known world
py
Models
Decisions
Costs/Benefits
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

20. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
•
How do engineers establish knowledge ?
Experience Data
Real world
Models
Accuracy/Uncertainty Accuracy/Uncertainty
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

21. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
•
How do engineers use knowledge ?
Experience
Data
Experience
Data
Models
Models are not precise
UncertaintyData are not sufficient
Natural variabilit
y
WHY ?
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
y
WHY

?
Experience is subjective

22. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
•
How do engineers make decisions
Experience
Data
Experience
Data
Models
Decisions
C t /B fit
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
C
os
t
s
/B
ene
fit
s

23. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering? All ti iti i t d ith t i ti All
ac
ti
v
iti
es are assoc
i
a
t
e
d
w
ith
uncer
t
a
i
n
ti
es
Activities could be:
- Transport
-Work
St
-
S
por
t
but also
- Production of energy
Exploitation of resources
-
Exploitation

of

resources

- Construction and operation of production
and infrastructure
p
ro
j
ects
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
pj
- Research and development

24. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering? E d k d ii i d iii i d E
very
d
ay we must ma
k
e
d
ec
i
s
i
ons
i
n regar
d
to act
i
v
i
t
i
es assoc
i
ate
d

with uncertainties
Car driving
Cooking
Smoking
Cooking
Smoking
Crossing the
Mountain
climbing
Surfing
Stock
trading
street
Surfing
Every one of these activities is associated with uncertainties
We all have an o
p
inion re
g
ardin
g
the associated risks
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
pgg
We have gut feelings !

25. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
Disasters and accidents have always occurred Disasters

and

accidents

have

always

occurred

Some examples
Tacoma Narrows Washington 1940 Tacoma

Narrows
,
Washington
,
1940
Fort Mayer, Virginia, 1908
Open questions
did we realise the risks ?
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
-
did

we

realise

the

risks

?

- are the consequences acceptable ?

26. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
Disasters and accidents have always occurred Disasters

and

accidents

have

always

occurred

Some examples
Open questions
did we realise the risks ?
Kobe, 1995
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
-
did

we

realise

the

risks

?

- are the consequences acceptable ?

27. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
Disasters and accidents have always occurred Disasters

and

accidents

have

always

occurred

Some examples
Open questions
did we realise the risks ?
Minneapolis, Minnesota, 2007
N Y k 2001
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
-
did

we

realise

the

risks

?

- are the consequences acceptable ?
N
ew
Y
or
k
,
2001

28. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering?
Disasters and accidents have always occurred Disasters

and

accidents

have

always

occurred

Some examples
Open questions
did we realise the risks ?
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
-
did

we

realise

the

risks

?

- are the consequences acceptable ?
Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans, 2005

29. Why Risk and Safety in Engineering? Ri k t ithi th f k f d i i l i id Ri
s
k
assessmen
t
, w
ithi
n
th
e
f
ramewor
k
o
f

d
ec
i
s
i
on ana
l
ys
i
s, prov
id
es a
basis for rational decision making subject to uncertain and / or
incomplete information
Thereby we can take into account, in a consistent manner, the prevailing uncertainties and quantify their effect on risks
Thus we may find answers to the following questions
How large is the risk associated with a given activity ?
-
How

large

is

the

risk

associated

with

a

given

activity

?
- How may we reduce and / or mitigate risks ? - How much does it cost to reduce and / or mitigate risks ?
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
- What risks can we accept – what can we afford ?

30. Definition of Risk
Risk
is a characteristic of an activity relating to all possible events
n
E
The risk contribution
R
from the event
E
is defined through the product
Risk
is

a

characteristic

of

an

activity

relating

to

all

possible

events

n
E
which may follow as a result of the activity The

risk

contribution

R
E
i
from

the

event

E
i
is

defined

through

the

product

between
the
event probability
P
E
the

event

probability
P
E
i
and The
risk
associated with a given activity
R
A
may then be written as
the consequencesof the event C
E
i
The

risk
associated

with

a

given

activity

R
A
may

then

be

written

as
∑
∑
⋅
=
=
E
i
i
E
i
n
E
E
n
E
A
C
P
R
R
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
∑
∑
= =
i
i
i
i
E
E
i
E
A
1 1

31. Decision Problems in Engineering
Utiti tb iddithdii kithhtll U
ncer
t
a
i
n
ti
es mus
t

b
e cons
id
ere
d

i
n
th
e
d
ec
i
s
i
on ma
ki
ng
th
roug
h
ou
t
a
ll

phases of the life of an engineering facility
Plannin
g
and Investi
g
ations and
Plannin
g
and Investi
g
ations and
Plannin
g
and Investi
g
ations and
Idea &
g
feasibility study
g
tests
Design
Uncertainties Uncertainties T ffi l
Idea &
g
feasibility study
g
tests
Design
Idea &
g
feasibility study
g
tests
Design
Uncertainties Uncertainties T ffi l
Idea

&

Concept
Manufacturing
•
Safety of personnel
• Safet
y
of environment
T
ra
ffi
c vo
l
ume
Loads
Resistances
Idea

&

Concept
Manufacturing
•
Safety of personnel
• Safet
y
of environment
Idea

&

Concept
Manufacturing
•
Safety of personnel
•Safet
y
of environment
T
ra
ffi
c vo
l
ume
Loads
Resistances
Execution
y
•
(material, soil,..)
Degradation processes
Service life
Execution
y
•
Execution
y
•
(material, soil,..) Degradation processes Service life
Economic feasibility
Operation &
maintenance
Decommissioning
Manufacturing costs
Execution costs
Operation &
maintenance
DecommissioningOperation &
maintenance
Decommissioning
Manufacturing costs
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Decommissioning
costs
Decommissioning
costs

32. Example –Decommissioning of the Frigg Field Th F i Fi ld
b il 1972
1978
•
Th
e
F
r
i
gg
Fi
e
ld
–
b
u
il
t
1972
-
1978
-TCP2 -
TP1
-
TP1
- CDP1
According to international According

to

international

conventions the structures
must be decommissioned
Each structure : W i ht 250000 t •
Nfthltf didfd iii!
W
e
i
g
ht
:
250000

t
Costs : 200 – 600 million CHF
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
•
N
one o
f

th
e p
l
a
tf
orms were
d
es
i
gne
d

f
or
d
ecomm
i
ss
i
on
i
ng
!

33. Decision Problems in Engineering SlDi
•
S
tructura
l

D
es
i
gn
Exceptional structures are often associated with structures of
“Extreme Dimensions”
GtBltBid dCtti
CtdifthTllltf
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
G
rea
t

B
e
lt

B
r
id
ge un
d
er
C
ons
t
ruc
ti
on
C
oncep
t

d
raw
ing o
f

th
e
T
ro
ll
p
la
tf
orm

34. Decision Problems in Engineering SlDi
•
S
tructura
l

D
es
i
gn
or associated with structures fulfilling
“New and Innovative Purposes”
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Concept drawing of
Floating Production, Storage and Offloading unit
Illustrations of the ARIANE 5 rocket

35. DecisionProblemsinEngineering Decision

Problems

in

Engineering
Before During After
Rehabilitation of infrastructure
functionality
Optimal allocation of available resources for risk reduction
Damage reduction/Control Emergency help and rescue
Condition assessment and updating of reliability and risks
- strengthening - rebuilding
Emergency

help

and

rescue
After quake hazards
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Optimal allocation of resources for rebuilding and strengthening
in regard to possible earth-
quakes

36. Decision Problems in Engineering IidMi Pli
•
I
nspect
i
on an
d

M
a
i
ntenance
Pl
ann
i
ng
Due to
- operational loading
- environmental exposure
structures will always to some degree be exposed to degradation processes such as processes

such

as
- fatigue
corrosion
-
corrosion
- scour - wear
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

37. Decision Problems in Engineering IidMi Pli
•
I
nspect
i
on an
d

M
a
i
ntenance
Pl
ann
i
ng
For industrial facilities inspection
and maintenance is also an
important issue with regard to:
reduction of production downtime safety of workers safety

of

workers
safeguarding the environment
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

38. Decision Problems in Engineering
ItidMit Pli
•
I
nspec
ti
on an
d

M
a
i
n
t
enance
Pl
ann
i
ng
For industrial facilities inspection
and maintenance is also an and

maintenance

is

also

an

important issue with regard to:
reduction of production downtime reduction

of

production

downtime
safety of workers safeguarding the environment
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

39. Decision Problems in Engineering
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

40. Decision Problems in Engineering
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

41. Decision Problems in Engineering
New emerging challenges have necessitated have

necessitated

exceptional requirements
with regard to construction
tdft
managemen
t
an
d
sa
f
e
t
y
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

42. The Risk Based Decision Process
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

43. The Risk Based Decision Process
Ri k t t d i i
Define Context
and Criteria
Define System
Ri
s
k
assessmen
t
suppor
t
s
d
ec
i
s
i
on
making subject to uncertainties
Identify Hazard
Scenarios
- what might go wrong
The theoretical basis for risk based decision making is the theory of
- how can it happen
-how to control it
decision

making

is

the

theory

of

decision analysis
The main task is to optimally manage
Analysis of
Consequences
Analysis of
Probability
The

main

task

is

to

optimally

manage

risks in terms of life safety, economic
losses as well as potential damages to
the environment
Identify Risk
Scenarios
Analyse
Sensitivities
the

environment
Assess Risks
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Risk
Treatment
Monitor and
Review

44. The Risk Based Decision Process
The risk assessment can be
categorized
The

risk

assessment

can

be

categorized

according to the degree of detail
Level 1 :
Categorization
of
risk
Analysis of the probabilities of occurence
of critical events
Ll2
Categorization
of
risk
assessmentsisusefull!
L
eve
l

2
:
Analysis of the probabilities of occurence
of critical events and the corresponding
consequences
Documentstowhatdetail
theriskassessmentwas
performed
!
consequences Level 3 :
As for level 2, but with consideration of
performed
!
human errors as well as potential loss of lives – if relevant
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

45. Life Quality
D hilidit
•
D
emograp
hi
ca
l

i
n
di
ca
t
ors
- Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita
30000
35000
)
1500020000
25000
pita (USD PPP)
0
5000
10000
15000
GDP/cap
01950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

46. Life Quality
D hilidit
•
D
emograp
hi
ca
l

i
n
di
ca
t
ors
- Life expectancy at birth

80
90
h
4050 60 70
life at birth
1020 3040
Expected
0
10
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Year

47. Life Quality
Lif lit b d th h th
•
Lif
e qua
lit
y can
b
e assesse
d

th
roug
h

th
e
“Human Development Index” (UNO) or
“Life Q alit Inde ” (JCSS) “Life

Q
u
alit
y
Inde
x
”

(JCSS)
as a function of GDP life expectancy free time as

a

function

of

GDP
,
life

expectancy
,
free

time
,…
GDP and life expectancy are important components
10-20% of the GDP is reinvested into life saving activities Maintenance of infrastructure costs around 10
-
15 per cent of the available GDP
Maintenance

of

infrastructure

costs

around

10
15

per

cent

of

the

available

GDP
Cost efficiency is of tremendous importance!
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

48. Individual Risks
Based on statistical information the contribution to life risks of different
activites may be assessed
Atiit/
N b f f t liti
A
c
ti
v
it
y
/
course
N
um
b
er o
f

f
a
t
a
liti
es
per hour per 10
8
persons
Mountaineering (international)
Aviation transport (international)
2700
120
Deep sea travling Auto traffic
Mining (coal)
Construction work
59
56
21
7.7 Manufacturing/production Accidents at home
Accidents at home (healthy persons)
Fires at home
2.0
2.1
0.7
0.1
Structural failures0.002
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

49. Individual Risks
Aidt t lf
Causes of death probability/year probability/lifetime Transport Accidents 1.66E-04 1.28E-02 - Pedestrian 2.13E-05 1.64E-03
Pdl
li t
2 78E
06
2 14E
04
•
A
cc
id
en
t
s accoun
t
on
l
y
f
or
4% of all deaths
Illness s ch as heart fail re
-
P
e
d
a
l
cyc
li
s
t
2
.
78E
-
06
2
.
14E
-
04

- Motorcycle rider 1.07E-05 8.24E-04 - Car occupant 5.24E-05 4.05E-03 - Occupant of heavy transport vehicle 1.31E-06 1.01E-04 - Bus occupant 1.30E-07 1.00E-05
Animal rider or occupant of animal
drawn vehicle
4 07E
07
3 14E
05
Illness

s
u
ch

as

heart

fail
u
re
,
cancer and strokes
account for 58%
-
Animal

rider

or
occupant

of

animal
-
drawn

vehicle
4
.
07E
-
07
3
.
14E
-
05

- Occupant of railway train or railway vehicle 9.12E-08 7.04E-06 - Air and space transport accidents 3.22E-06 2.49E-04 Non-transport Accidents 1.90E-04 1.47E-02 - Falls 5.27E-05 4.07E-03 -
Struck by or against another person
1 58E
-
07
1 22E
-
05
-
Struck

by

or

against

another

person
1
.
58E
-
07
1
.
22E
-
05

- Accidental drowning and submersion 1.15E-05 8.88E-04 - Exposure to electric cu rrent, radiation,
temperature, and pressure 1.51E-06 1.17E-04
- Exposure to smoke, fire and flames 1.16E-05 8.96E-04 -
Uncontrolled fire in building or structure
9.38E
-
06
7.24E
-
04
Uncontrolled

fire

in

building

or

structure
9.38E
06
7.24E
04

- Contact with venomous animals and plants 2.14E-07 1.65E-05 - Earthquake and other earth movements 9.82E-08 7.58E-06 - Storm 1.89E-07 1.46E-05 - Flood 1.23E-07 9.48E-06 -Li
g
htnin
g
1.54E-07 1.19E-05
gg
- Alcohol 1.06E-06 8.20E-05 - Narcotics and hallucinogens 2.28E-05 1.76E-03 Intentional self-harm 1.07E-04 8.26E-03 Assault 7.12E-05 5.49E-03 Legal intervention 1.39E-06 1.07E-04
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
Operations of war 5.96E-08 4.60E-06 Complications of medical and surgical care 1.06E-05 8.18E-04

50. Individual Risks
Otilik
•
O
ccupa
ti
ona
l
r
i
s
k
s
Occu
p
ation sector
% of
employees
Fatalities per
100 000 employed
p
employees

100
,000

employed
Private industry 90 4.2 - Agriculture, forestry and fishing 14 22.7 - Mining 2 23.5
o
il and gas exploitation
1
23
1
-
o
il

and

gas

exploitation
1
23
.
1
- Construction 20 12.2 - Manufacturing 10 3.1 - Transportation and public utilities 16 11.3
Wholesale trade
4
4
0
-
Wholesale

trade

4
4
.
0
- Retail trade 9 2.1 - Finance, insurance, and real estate 2 1.0 - Services 12 1.7 Government
10
27
Government
10
2
.
7
- Federal (including resident armed forces) 2 3.0 Total 100 4.0
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

51. Individual Risks
Nt ldi t
•
N
a
t
ura
l

di
sas
t
ers
300 000
Victims
1
Insured
losses
2,3
– 14.11.1970 S torm and flood catastrophe Bangladesh
Event Country
250 000 – 28.07.1976 Earthquake in Tangshan (8.2 Richter scale) China
138 000 3 29.04.1991 Tropical cyclone Gorky Bangladesh
60 000 – 31.05.1970 Earthquake (7.7 Richter scale) Peru
50 000 156 21.06.1990 Ea
r
t
h
q
ua
k
einGilan I
r
an
q
25 000 – 07.12.1988 Earthquake in Armenia Armenia, ex-USSR 25 000 – 16.09.1978 Earthquake in Tabas Iran 23 000 – 13.11.1985 Volcanic eruption on Nevado del Ruiz Colombia 22
00
0
23
3
04
02
197
6
E
a
r
t
h
q
u
a
k
e
(
7
4
R
i
c
h
t
e
r
s
c
a
l
e
)
G
u
a
t
e
m
a
l
a
22
00
0
23
3
04
.
02
.
197
6
E
a
r
t
h
q
u
a
k
e
(
7
.
4
R
i
c
h
t
e
r
s
c
a
l
e
)
G
u
a
t
e
m
a
l
a
19 118 1063 17.08.1999 Earthquake in Izmit Turkey
15 000 100 26.01.2001 Earthquake (moment magnitude 7.7) in Gujarat India, Pakistan
15 000 106 29.10.1999 Cyclone 05B devastates Orissa state India, Bangladesh
15 000
–
01.09.1978 Floo
d
ing
f
ollowing
m
onsoon
r
ains in no
r
t
he
r
npa
r
t
sIn
d
ia
15 000 530 19.09.1985 Earthquake (8.1 Richter scale) Mexico
15 000 – 11.08.1979 Dyke burst in Morvi India
10 800 – 31.10.1971 Flooding in Bay of Bengal and Orissa state India
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
10 000 234 15.12.1999 Floo
d
in
g
,
m
u
d
sli
d
es
,
lan
d
sli
d
es V enezuela
,
Colo
m
b
ia

52. Individual Risks
Ml l
ti
•
M
a
l
evo
l
ence -
t
error
i
sm
T
tt
k
i
t
W
T
C
P
t
d
Insured
losses
2
Victims
1
Date EventCountry
at least 3000 19 000 11.09.2001
T
erro
r
a
tt
ac
k
aga
i
ns
t
W
T
C
,
P
en
t
agon an
d
other buildings
USA
300 23.10.1983
Bombing of US Marine barracks
and French paratrooper base in Beirut
Lebanon
300 6 12.03.1993 Series of 13 bomb attacks in Mumbai India
270 138 21.12.1988
PanAm Boeing 747 crashes at Lockerbie
due to bomb explosion
UK
253 07.08.1998
Two simultaneous bomb attacks on US
embassy complex in Nairobi
Kenya
16
6
14
5
19
04
199
5
Bomb attack on government building in
U
S
A
16
6
14
5
19
.
04
.
199
5
O
k
laho
m
aCi
t
y
U
S
A
127 45 23.11.1996
Hijacked Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 767-260
ditched at sea
Indian Ocean
118 13.09.1999
Bomb explosion destroys apartment
block in Moscow
Russia
100 04.06.1991 Arson in arms warehouse in Addis Ababa Ethiopia
100 6 31.01.1999 Bomb attack on Ceylinco House in Colombo Sri Lanka
1
Dead or missing
2
Excluding liability losses; in USD m, at 2001 price level
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

53. Sources of Risks in Engineering
Any activity carries a risk potential
It is im
p
ortant that this
p
otential is
pp
fully understood Only when the risk potential is
fully understood can rational
decisions be identified and implemented
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

54. Sources of Risks in Engineering
C h th ik t til C
ase w
h
ere
th
e r
i
s
k
po
t
en
ti
a
l

was not fully appreciated
The Tjörn bridge in S eden The

Tjörn

bridge

in

S
w
eden
Just after construction
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

55. Sources of Risks in Engineering
C h th ik t til C
ase w
h
ere
th
e r
i
s
k
po
t
en
ti
a
l

was not fully appreciated
The Tjörn bridge in S eden The

Tjörn

bridge

in

S
w
eden
A fewweekslater
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

56. Sources of Risks in Engineering
Fil ittl i i F
a
il
ures
i
n s
t
ruc
t
ura
l
eng
i
neer
i
ng
100
31222 2
80
Usage
Retrofit / Disposal
39
62
29
21
10
40
4060
Execution
69
88
77
2040
58
37
69
58
0
high
rising
b
u
il
d
i
ng
Industrial
buildings
Traffic
structures
DamsRestAll
cases
Type of Construction
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
b
u
il
d
i
ng
Number of samples362 15275 51 52 692

57. Sources of Risks in Engineering
Fil ittl i i F
a
il
ures
i
n s
t
ruc
t
ura
l
eng
i
neer
i
ng
100
R
e
s
t
59
1
1
8
4
80
Interrim structures R
e
s
t
119 12
1
16
4
36
20
40
60
Technica
l
Site and installation
19
72
14
2
20
Fitting
Structure
4450
0
Structural
damage
Cost of
damages
Damage of
persons
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
69269260

58. Sources of Risks in Engineering
Fil ittl i i F
a
il
ures
i
n s
t
ruc
t
ura
l
eng
i
neer
i
ng
Primary causes of structural failure Poor construction procedures
Inadequate connection elements
Id tldbhi
47
54.3
I
na
d
equa
t
e
l
oa
d
b
e
h
av
i
o
r
Unclear contract information Contravention of instructions
42.2
23.5
21.8
Unforeseeable events
Errors in design calculations
Reliance on construction accuracy
7.1
2.5
1.8
Complexity of project system1.2
0102030405060
Fre
q
uenc
y
(
%
)
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology

59. Aim of the lecture
Glitdtitikdftiii
•
G
enera
l

i
n
t
ro
d
uc
ti
on
t
o r
i
s
k
an
d
sa
f
e
t
y
i
n eng
i
neer
i
ng
•
Basics and principles of risk based decision analysis
•
Theory and technical aspects of risk assessment
•
Methods of reliability analysis and introduction to the JCSS probabilistic model code
•
Introduction to time variant and systems reliability analysis and assessment of structural
bt
ro
b
us
t
ness
•
Illustration of computer tools for risk and reliability anaylsis
•
Applications for design, assessment and maintenance planning
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
•
Understanding of engineering optimization and risk acceptance

60. Organisation of the Lecture
DATE
SUBJECT
DATE
SUBJECT
16.09.09Introduction and overview
- Life quality, risks and decision making
- Hazards and causes of failures
23.09.09Review of
p
robabilit
y
theor
y
and statistics
DATE
SUBJECT
04.11.09The JCSS probabilistic model code
- Probabilistic modeling of resistances
- Probabilistic modeling of loads - 11 11 09DATE
SUBJECT
Systems reliability analysis and robustness
pyy
- Uncertainties in engineering modeling
- Basic data analysis
- Random variables and processes
- Engineering model building
30.09.09Engineering decision analysis
11
.
11
.
09
-Series and parallel system analysis
-Structural systems analysis
-Robustness assessment of structures
Systems
reliability
analysis
and
robustness
18.11.09Time variant reliability analysis
Th P i d th N l
- Prior decision analysis
- Posterior decision analysis
- Pre-posterior decision analysis
07.10.09Risk assessment in civil engineering
- Procedures of risk assessment25.11.09Bayesian Probabilistic Nets (BPN) in risk assessment
Th
e
P
o
i
sson an
d
th
e
N
orma
l
processes
The first excursion problem and mean out crossing rates
Approximations in time variant reliability analysis
Treatment of non ergodic variables and random sequences
-
-
-
-
- Scenario identification and analysis
- System representation
- Probabilities and consequences
- Multi scale indicator based risk assessment
14.10.09Classical reliability analysis
il d
- Basic theory of BPN
- Application of BPN in risk assessment
- Application of BPN in large scale risk management
02.12.09Reliability based structural design and assessment
- Safety formats of design codes
-Fa
il
ure rate
d
ata
- The reliability function
- Updating of failure rates based on data
- Failure rate functions and the bath-tub curve
21.10.09Structural reliability analysis
Fi t
dS d
O d R li bilit M th d
-
- Reliability updating
- Assessment of existing structures (and SIA 269)
09.12.09Risk based inspection and maintenance planning
- The basic problem
dli fd d i
Calibration of design codes
-
Fi
rs
t
an
d
S
econ
d

O
r
d
er
R
e
li
a
bilit
y
M
e
th
o
d
s
- Monte Carlo and importance sampling
28.10.09Software tools for reliability analysis
- Presentation of the COMREL program
- Exercises in the PC-lab
-
- Inspection quality and the PoD concept
- Generic approaches to inspection planning
16.12.09
- Optimality in engineering decision making
Th ALARP i i l f t bilit
Optimal decision making and risk acceptance criteria
Mo
d
e
li
ng o
f
d
egra
d
at
i
on processes
Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
-
Th
e
ALARP
pr
i
nc
i
p
l
e
f
or accep
t
a
bilit
y
-
- Societal life saving costs and willingness to pay
The Life Quality Index and acceptable life safety