Recorded Version - KSAdvisory Monthly View July 2024 for Distribution(1).ppsx

Monthly market comment and asset allocation positioning.

1. KSA Monthly View
July 2024
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
1
Position for Geopolitical and Political
Event-Driven Inflationary Tailwinds

2. This slide deck of visuals, data, and written synopses
is for clients to understand our geopolitical and
macroeconomic outlook, asset class views, and model
portfolio tactical asset allocation (TAA).
Questions?
If you have questions or require more details or further
elaboration on the ideas presented, please contact us!
Purpose
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warranty,whetherexpressedorimplied,ismadeabout
theaccuracy,completenessorreliabilityofthe
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©2024KSAdvisory,SARL
2
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024

3. Contents
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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1.One Sentence Executive Summary
2.Risks
3.Tactical Asset Allocation Summary Table
4.Geopolitical View and Outlook
5.Macroeconomic View and Outlook
6.Tactical Asset Allocation Monthly Update
7.Asset Class Views
8.Questions to Ponder.
9.Market Data
Have questions? Get in touch.

4. “While we are cautiously constructive on the medium and long-term
global growth outlook, we expect the combination of geopolitical, political
uncertainty and inflationary tailwinds to force market participants into
trimming gains and adopting a more conservative positioning going into
Q3 and Q4.”
Belal Mohammed Khan
Executive Summary -One Sentence
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
4

5. Our assessment of major risks and implications for economies, financial markets
and portfolio positioning.
Summary Statement:
Overall, risks appear to be underestimated by markets.
We are on the brink of a period of unprecedented political risk. Our election
expectations for the UK, LabourParty victory, France, Far-Right National Rally will
do better than expected, and the US, a Trump victory, will all significantly push
inflation expectations and riskto the upside.
Risks
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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6. The KS Advisory Risk Guage
is a qualitative assessment
of market risk in the one to
six-month (short-term)
horizon.
The assessment considers
market volatility across
asset classes; volatility
skews, financial condition
Market Risk Gauge –No change to or view
Major Risks Summary
Whileweareconstructiveontheglobalgrowthoutlookandrelativemarketstability,givengreatermarketoversightandthewillingnessofregulators
andcentralbankstostepinwhenneededtostabilizethefinancialandmarketsystem,ourprimaryconcernisregardinginvestorconfidenceandthe
potentialnegativeimpactofagnostictradingmodelsresponding,tradingonsentimentandmomentum(positiveornegative).Weexpectadeterioration
ofmarketconfidencewillsurfacefromworryinggeopoliticalandpoliticaldevelopments,whichwillcreateanxietyandincreaseuncertainty.Looking
forwardtoQ3andQ4,weexpectadeteriorationofmarketconfidencewillbetriggeredbyelectionsinFrance,theUK,andtheUSA.Inaddition,we
believethecentralbankwillnotbeabletotameinflation.Onthecontrary,webelievetheworldhasenteredaneraofsecularinflation,whichwillcreate
persistentmonetarypolicyuncertainty.Assuch,investorsshouldpositionthemselvesforgeopoliticalandpoliticalevents-driveninflationarytailwinds.
RISK
Risks: KSA Risk Guage –Mild Risk-Off
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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7. 7
Risks: US CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio
GiventhelowUSCBOEPut/Call
Ratioandtheriskswehave
identified,webelievealongvolatility
allocationisnecessarytocounterthe
currentmarketcomplacency.
Weexpectthecomplacencytofade
quicklyandthePu/Callratiotoclimb
astheUSelectionnears.
Assuch,inthemonthofMay,weput
inplacealongvolatilityallocation
aheadofQ3andQ4,quartersofthe
yearwithaheavyeventcalendar.
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024

8. Risks -UK Election –LabourVictory Inflationary?
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
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July 2024
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We expect a LabourParty Victory: we believe there is a greater risk of fiscal slippage and, as
such, deem inflationary risks to be much greater than deflationary risks.
Labour’sfivemissionstorebuildBritain
Source:https://labour.org.uk/change/labours-fiscal-plan/
1)Kickstarteconomicgrowth-tosecurethehighestsustained
growthintheG7–withgoodjobsandproductivitygrowthinevery
partofthecountrymakingeveryone,notjustafew,betteroff.
2)MakeBritainacleanenergysuperpower-tocutbills,create
jobsanddeliversecuritywithcheaper,zero-carbonelectricityby
2030,acceleratingtonetzero.
3)Takebackourstreets-byhalvingseriousviolentcrimeand
raisingconfidenceinthepoliceandcriminaljusticesystemtoits
highestlevels.
4)Breakdownbarrierstoopportunity-byreformingour
childcareandeducationsystems,tomakesurethereisnoclass
ceilingontheambitionsofyoungpeopleinBritain.
5)BuildanNHSfitforthefuture-thatistherewhenpeopleneed
it;withfewerliveslosttothebiggestkillers;inafairerBritain,where
everyoneliveswellforlonger.
SummaryofLabourParty'sPlanforChange
TheLabourParty'splanfocusesonrestoringhope,endingperceived
Conservativechaos,andrebuildingthenationwithafocuson
workingpeople.Keyareasincludeimprovingpublicservices,
increasingeconomicstability,ensuringsecureborders,andfostering
businesspartnershipsforeconomicgrowth.Theplanemphasizes
fiscalresponsibility,aimingtobalancethebudgetandreducedebt
overtimewhileinvestingininfrastructure,greenenergy,andpublic
services.
PotentialInflationaryEffects
TheLabourParty'sincreasedspendingonpublicservicesand
infrastructurecouldhaveinflationaryeffects,particularlyintheshort
term,asitstimulatesdemand.However,theircommitmentto
balancingthebudgetwithinfiveyearsandfocusingonlong-term
economicgrowthmaymitigatesomeoftheseinflationarypressures.
Theactualimpactoninflationwilldependontheeffectivenessof
theirrevenue-generatingmeasures.However,webelievethereisa
greaterriskoffiscalslippageand,assuch,deeminflationaryrisksto
bemuchgreaterthandeflationaryrisks.

9. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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RISK –ECB’s Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS)
US and Euro area
TheECBCISShaspickedupforthe
Euroarea(redline),movingtowards
theUS.Thepointtostresshereisthat
systemicriskremainslow.However,
givenourconcernsmentionedearlier,
weareonthelookoutforbondmarket
liquidityissuesbeginningtosurface
givensupply,demandanddealer
balancesheetconstraints,especiallyin
theUS.IntheEuroarea,ourconcerns
aremorearoundpossibleerosionof
confidenceinleadersandleadershipas
theEUmovesfurthertothepolitical
rightandalsofindsmanagingNATO,
especiallytheUSpolicyasnotactingin
theinterestoftheEU.Thisariskworth
monitoring.
The CISS is computed for the Euro Area as a whole. It includes 15 raw, mainly market-based financial stress measures that are split equally into five categories, namely the financial
intermediaries sector, money markets, equity markets, bond markets and foreign exchange markets. For further details, see Holló, D., Kremer, M. and Lo Duca, M., "CISS -A Composite
Indicator of Systemic Stress in the Financial System" , Working Paper Series , No 1426, ECB, March 2012. The CISS is also available for the United States of America, following a
computation analogous to the Euro Area definition described above. The US CISS comprises the appropriate sub-indices for the United States financial system. The SovCISSmeasures
stress in sovereign debt markets in the Euro Area as a whole and in several Euro Area and non-Euro Area EU countries. The methodology is described in Garcia-de-Andoain, C. and
Kremer, M., "Beyond Spreads: Measuring Sovereign Market Stress in the Euro Area" , Working Paper Series , No 2185, ECB, October2018. The New CISS is computed for four countries
for which the Euro Area, the US and the UK use 15 raw indicators and China 16. It maintains the CISS"esscheme of using inputs from different market segments but employs a revised and
equal weighting scheme of the raw indicators. It is calculated on a daily basis.

10. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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RISK –ECB’s Composite Indicator of Systemic Stress (CISS)
China
TheECBCISSforChinaisextremely
helpfulasit,likeallCISSindexes,
comprehensivelymeasuressystemic
risk.
Inourview,especiallygivenrecent
announcementsbythePBoCofpossible
newmeasuresbeingintroducedforthe
localgovernmentbondmarket,China
marketsaremuchsaferthangenerally
perceived.WeexpectChinabondsto
haveastrongyearandactasaregional
safeallocationandasafehaven
allocationfortheglobalmajority.
Remember,theChinagovernmentbond
marketisnowc.$21trillioninsize!
YoucanfindthePBoCnewhereonthis
site-
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688
172/5188125/5379416/index.html
TheCompositeIndicatorofSystemicStress(CISS)forChina,availableontheEuropeanCentralBank(ECB)website,measuresthelevel
ofstressintheChinesefinancialsystemusingavarietyofmarket-basedfinancialstressindicators.Specifically,itincludes16raw
indicatorsfromdifferentmarketsegmentssuchasfinancialintermediaries,moneymarkets,equitymarkets,bondmarkets,andforeign
exchangemarkets.ThisindicatorisdesignedtoprovideacomprehensiveviewofsystemicstresswithintheChinesefinancialmarket.The
CISSforChinaiscalculateddaily,butthedataisupdatedweeklyonMondays.ThemethodologyusedforChina’sCISSalignswiththat
usedfortheEuroArea,theUS,andtheUK,witharevisedandequalweightingschemefortherawindicators.Formoredetailed
informationandtoaccessthedataset,youcanvisittheECBDataPortal

11. Our assessment of major risks and implications for economies, financial markets
and portfolio positioning.
Summary Statement:
Overall, risks appear to be underestimated by markets.
We are on the brink of a period of unprecedented political risk. Our election
expectations for the UK, LabourParty victory, France, Far-Right National Rally will
do better than expected, and the US, a Trump victory, will all significantly push
inflation expectations and riskto the upside.
Market Implications:
We expect markets to come under strain, both bonds and stocks, as investors
move more into cash and gold. In May, we adjusted our model portfolio
positioning for such an outcome.
Risks –Market Implications Summary
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
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July 2024
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12. Our model-moderate risk USD portfolio, liquid assets, and positioning.
Summary Statement:
Risks are underestimated and underpriced. We expect Q3 and Q4 to be littered
with risk events, primarily stemming from geopolitical and political developments,
a fading consumer and sticky inflation. As such it is best to trim gains and reduce
market risk.
Tactical Asset Allocation Summary –July 2024
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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13. PORTFOLIO
Took Gains
/ Risk-Off
Given risk concerns, our model-moderate risk USD portfolio has been in a risk-off position at the asset class
level since May. The combination of geopolitical, political, and inflation uncertainty is too elevated for our
comfort, especially given the very attractive cash rates, which pay well for being prudent.
RISK Elevated
Elevated uncertainty across geopolitics, politics and inflation outlook suggests headwinds ahead for markets in
Q3 and Q4. We expect inflationary pressures to resurface and growth to slow in US which will create greater
uncertainty around the monetary policy outlook.
CASH AttractiveNo change. Holding overweight since April, added to it in May. Cash provides an attractive risk-adjusted return.
FIXED INCOME
Expect
Weakness
No change. Holding underweight since Q4 2023. In developed market sovereigns, we are overweight short-
duration, underweight long-duration, and overweight select emerging market debt, China, Brazil, and the GCC.
EQUITY
Expect
Weakness
No change. Underweight since May and overweight in select defensive markets and sectors. Also, hold a China
overweight. Investment themes preference includes AI, Aging, Fitness/Wellness, Bio-Tech.
COMMODITIES
Supportive
Outlook
No Change. Holding GOLD overweight on BRIC Plus central bank demand and our secular inflation call. Given
the expectations of increased defencespending worldwide and China’s recovery, we also hold an overweight
position on industrial metals.
OTHER
Volatility
Attractive
No Change. Holding an overweight since May on expectation of rising geopolitical, political and inflation
uncertainty.
CURRENCIES
USD our
Choice
No Change. We are overweight USD vs all majors except JPY. We continue to expect the Japanese central
bank to signal a change in monetary policy, which should push JPY to stronger levels. We have hedged
portfolios for USD strength.
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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Tactical Asset Allocation Summary -July

14. Our assessment of major geopolitical developments and implications for
economies, financial markets and portfolio positioning.
Summary Statement:
"Across nearly all continents, political landscapes are dramatically shifting,
changing. Some are triggered by internal issues, while others are triggered by
geopolitical considerations as geopolitical fragmentation accelerates and further
solidifies into IAEBs, Ideologically Aligned Economic Blocs, a concept we
introduced in 2022. We believe this creates persistent inflationary pressures that
are not adequately priced in by markets nor adequately in the calculus of central
bank monetary policymakers.”
Belal Mohammed Khan
Geopolitical Update
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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15. GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK & IMPLICATIONS
G7InfluenceFading:G7anditsrelevanceinaBRICPlusera-The50
th
annualG7
meetingwasheldinItaly.Eachcountryattendingfacesmonumentalchallenges
athome,asnationalgeostrategicpoliciesareincreasinglystrainingrelationships
betweencountriesthathavehadrelativelygoodrelationsfordecades.
Implications—Westernfinancialassetswillplayadiminishingrolefornon-NATO-
alignedstates.
G7andNATOTheft?G7nationsapprovedplanstoutilizetheseizedRussian
financialassetsofapproximatelyEUR260billion,whicharefrozenworldwideand
generateprofitsofabout2.5-3.5billioneurosperyear,whichtheEUbelievesare
notcontractuallyowedtoRussiaand,assuch,representawindfalltotheEU.The
USplannedtousethisexpectedrevenuestreamtosecureandservicealoanof
$50billionraisedinglobalbondmarketstohelpreconstructUkraine.Russia,of
course,considersthisastheft.Themessagetotherestoftheworldisthatthe
financialassetsofanynation-stateinthecurrencyofanyNATOissuerarenot
safe.Thus,theworldwillcontinuetodiversifyawayfromcurrenciesunderthe
influenceoftheUSandNATO.Implications-Thiswouldalsoquestionany
financialassetdenominatedinsuchcurrencies.Demandfortraditionalliquid
developedmarketfinancialassetswillfadeinexchangeformajorEMfinancial
assetsinthecomingyearsanddecades.
EUelectionoutcome,electionsinFranceandUK:InEUelections,thefar-righthasbeenthe
bigwinner,asexpected.However,westillthinkthatmarketsarenotadequatelypricing-
relatedheadwindstogrowth,especiallygiventheincreasedinternalstrifeandstress
regardingsupportforUkraine.Thiswillfurtherthemovetowardseconomicnationalism,
anothervariableinthesecularinflationthesis.
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
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July 2024
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1)EuroCurrency-Ourgeopolitical,political,andeconomic
concernsabouttheeuroareawillfirstandmostclearlysurfacein
theeurocurrency.Webelievetheeurowillexperienceasteady
decline,erosioninvalue,fromwhichitwillnotrecoverinthis
secularcycle.Ouryear-end2024target,setinDecember2023,
remainsunchangedat0-92-0.95range.Implications:Adjust
hedgeratiosaccordinglyandaddEuropeanexporterstoequity
allocations.
Rapid, significant, far-reaching: Major geopolitical and political developments are occurring rapidly with far-reaching and
significant long-term implications. This includes the EU elections, G7 meetings, and significantly improved dialogue, relations,
and agreements between Russia and China, Russia and North Korea, and Russia and Vietnam.

16. Russia’sgrowinglistofkeystrategicpartners–RussianPresidentPutin
has“changedthegame”!PutinandNorthKorea’sSupremeLeadersigneda
"comprehensivestrategicpartnership"pact,whichincludedamutual
defenceclauseinthecaseofaggressionagainsteithercountry.Putinalso
travelledtoVietnam,signingmultiplecooperationagreementsandfurther
agreeingtodeepentheircomprehensivestrategicpartnership.Therehas
beenagravemiscalculationbytheUSandotherWesternpowers,
particularlytheUKandNATO.ThelongertheUkraine–Russiawarlasts,the
wideranddeeperRussia’sstrategicpartnershipswillgrow.Ifthewarends,
itwillnotreversetherecenttrend,givenRussia’smistrustofNATO,
particularlytheUS.Implicationsforeconomiesandfinancialmarketsare
straightforward.AsthedividebetweentheUS,NATO,alignedstatesandthe
BRICPlusgrows,therewillbegreatercontrolandmanagementofvital
resourcesgiventhatthefurtheringofgeopoliticalfragmentationwillleadto
furtherdeploymentofeconomicnationalism,aswellaseconomicactivity-
basedonideologicallyalignedtradingblocks,aconceptweintroducedin
2023.Thiswillcontributetothesecularinflationpressureswehavebeen
writingaboutsinceAugust2022.
16
2)BearSteepeningExpected:Givenacombinationoffactors,
includinggeopolitics,marketstructure,supplyanddemand,and
secularinflationarypressures,webelievethatcurves,especially
thoseintheUSandUK,willexperienceasustainedbear
steepening.
Rapid, significant, far-reaching: Major geopolitical and political developments are occurring rapidly with far-reaching and
significant long-term implications. This includes the EU elections, G7 meetings, and significantly improved dialogue, relations,
and agreements between Russia and China, Russia and North Korea, and Russia and Vietnam.
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
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July 2024
GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK & IMPLICATIONS
The Term Premium is the extra yield investors demand for holding a longer-term bond instead of a series of shorter-term bonds. It reflects compensation for risks associated with holding longer-term bonds, such as interest
rate risk and inflation risk.10 Years Hence: This indicates that the term premium being measured is for bonds with a maturityof10 years in the future—Data Source –US Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
US Treasury -Forward Term Premium 10
Years Hence, Percent, Monthly (1990 –June
2024)
US Treasury 10 Year Term
Premium
Historical Average Term

17. 17
BearSteepeningExpected:Givenacombinationoffactors,includinggeopolitics,marketstructure,supplyanddemand,
andsecularinflationarypressures,webelievethatcurves,especiallythoseintheUS,Canada,UKandEU,willexperiencea
sustainedbearsteepening.ThechartbelowshowstheUSTreasury10-yeartermpremiumwiththehistoricalaverage.Inthe
quartersandyearsahead,weexpecttheUS10-yearTreasurytermpremiumtoclimbtowardsthehistoricalaveragegiven
ourUS,globalandinflationconsiderations.
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
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July 2024
GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK & IMPLICATIONS
The chart shows the extra yield investors demand for holding a longer-term bond instead of a series of shorter-term bonds. It reflects compensation for risks associated with
holding longer-term bonds, such as interest rate risk and inflation risk. 10 Years Hence: This indicates that the term premium being measured is for bonds with a maturity of 10
years in the future—data source –US Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
1990-01-01 1990-08-01 1991-03-01 1991-10-01 1992-05-01 1992-12-01 1993-07-01 1994-02-01 1994-09-01 1995-04-01 1995-11-01 1996-06-01 1997-01-01 1997-08-01 1998-03-01 1998-10-01 1999-05-01 1999-12-01 2000-07-01 2001-02-01 2001-09-01 2002-04-01 2002-11-01 2003-06-01 2004-01-01 2004-08-01 2005-03-01 2005-10-01 2006-05-01 2006-12-01 2007-07-01 2008-02-01 2008-09-01 2009-04-01 2009-11-01 2010-06-01 2011-01-01 2011-08-01 2012-03-01 2012-10-01 2013-05-01 2013-12-01 2014-07-01 2015-02-01 2015-09-01 2016-04-01 2016-11-01 2017-06-01 2018-01-01 2018-08-01 2019-03-01 2019-10-01 2020-05-01 2020-12-01 2021-07-01 2022-02-01 2022-09-01 2023-04-01 2023-11-01 2024-06-01
US Treasury -Forward Term Premium 10 Years Hence, Percent,
Monthly (1990 –June 2024)
Historical Average Term Premium

18. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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-1.00
1.00
3.00
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
1956-05-01 1957-06-01 1958-07-01 1959-08-01 1960-09-01 1961-10-01 1962-11-01 1963-12-01 1965-01-01 1966-02-01 1967-03-01 1968-04-01 1969-05-01 1970-06-01 1971-07-01 1972-08-01 1973-09-01 1974-10-01 1975-11-01 1976-12-01 1978-01-01 1979-02-01 1980-03-01 1981-04-01 1982-05-01 1983-06-01 1984-07-01 1985-08-01 1986-09-01 1987-10-01 1988-11-01 1989-12-01 1991-01-01 1992-02-01 1993-03-01 1994-04-01 1995-05-01 1996-06-01 1997-07-01 1998-08-01 1999-09-01 2000-10-01 2001-11-01 2002-12-01 2004-01-01 2005-02-01 2006-03-01 2007-04-01 2008-05-01 2009-06-01 2010-07-01 2011-08-01 2012-09-01 2013-10-01 2014-11-01 2015-12-01 2017-01-01 2018-02-01 2019-03-01 2020-04-01 2021-05-01 2022-06-01 2023-07-01
Germany Government Bond 10 Year Yield: Percent,
Monthly, 1956 -June 2024
Historical Average 10 Year Germany Gov
Bond Yield 5.4331
BearSteepeningExpected:Givenacombinationoffactors,includinggeopolitics,marketstructure,supplyanddemand,
andsecularinflationarypressures,webelievethatcurves,especiallythoseintheUS,Canada,UKandEU,willexperiencea
sustainedbearsteepening.ThechartbelowshowstheGermangovernmentbond10-yearyieldwiththehistoricalaverage.
GivenourconcernsabouttheEUgeopolitical,politicalandeconomicoutlookandsecularinflationconsiderations,weexpect
theyieldtomigratetowardsthehistoricalaverageinthequartersandyearsahead.
GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK & IMPLICATIONS
Data Source –US Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis

19. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
1960-01-01 1961-01-01 1962-01-01 1963-01-01 1964-01-01 1965-01-01 1966-01-01 1967-01-01 1968-01-01 1969-01-01 1970-01-01 1971-01-01 1972-01-01 1973-01-01 1974-01-01 1975-01-01 1976-01-01 1977-01-01 1978-01-01 1979-01-01 1980-01-01 1981-01-01 1982-01-01 1983-01-01 1984-01-01 1985-01-01 1986-01-01 1987-01-01 1988-01-01 1989-01-01 1990-01-01 1991-01-01 1992-01-01 1993-01-01 1994-01-01 1995-01-01 1996-01-01 1997-01-01 1998-01-01 1999-01-01 2000-01-01 2001-01-01 2002-01-01 2003-01-01 2004-01-01 2005-01-01 2006-01-01 2007-01-01 2008-01-01 2009-01-01 2010-01-01 2011-01-01 2012-01-01 2013-01-01 2014-01-01 2015-01-01 2016-01-01 2017-01-01 2018-01-01 2019-01-01 2020-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01
France Government Bond Yields: 10 -Year, Percent,
Monthly, 1960 -June 2024
Historical Average 10 Year
BearSteepeningExpected:Givenacombinationoffactors,includinggeopolitics,marketstructure,supplyanddemand,
andsecularinflationarypressures,webelievethatcurves,especiallythoseintheUS,Canada,UKandEU,willexperiencea
sustainedbearsteepening.ThechartbelowshowstheFrenchgovernmentbond10-yearyieldwiththehistoricalaverage.
GivenourconcernsabouttheEUgeopolitical,politicalandeconomicoutlookandsecularinflationconsiderations,weexpect
theyieldtomigratetowardsthehistoricalaverageinthequartersandyearsahead.
GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK & IMPLICATIONS
Data Source –US Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis

20. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1955-01-01 1956-02-01 1957-03-01 1958-04-01 1959-05-01 1960-06-01 1961-07-01 1962-08-01 1963-09-01 1964-10-01 1965-11-01 1966-12-01 1968-01-01 1969-02-01 1970-03-01 1971-04-01 1972-05-01 1973-06-01 1974-07-01 1975-08-01 1976-09-01 1977-10-01 1978-11-01 1979-12-01 1981-01-01 1982-02-01 1983-03-01 1984-04-01 1985-05-01 1986-06-01 1987-07-01 1988-08-01 1989-09-01 1990-10-01 1991-11-01 1992-12-01 1994-01-01 1995-02-01 1996-03-01 1997-04-01 1998-05-01 1999-06-01 2000-07-01 2001-08-01 2002-09-01 2003-10-01 2004-11-01 2005-12-01 2007-01-01 2008-02-01 2009-03-01 2010-04-01 2011-05-01 2012-06-01 2013-07-01 2014-08-01 2015-09-01 2016-10-01 2017-11-01 2018-12-01 2020-01-01 2021-02-01 2022-03-01 2023-04-01 2024-05-01
SwissGovernment Bond 10 Year Yield: Percent, Monthly,
1955 -June 2024
Historical Average Term Premium
BearSteepeningExpected:Givenacombinationoffactors,includinggeopolitics,marketstructure,supplyanddemand,
andsecularinflationarypressures,webelievethatcurves,especiallythoseintheUS,Canada,UKandEU,willexperiencea
sustainedbearsteepening.ThechartbelowshowstheSwissgovernmentbond10-yearyieldwiththehistoricalaverage.
GivenourconcernsabouttheEUgeopolitical,politicalandeconomicoutlookandsecularinflationconsiderations,weexpect
theyieldtomigrateveryslowlyhigher,butwedonotexpecttheSwiss10-yeartomoveasmuchastheUS,Germanor
Frenchyieldandyieldcurve.TheSwisscurvewillbearsteepeningbutmildlyrelativetotheothercountriesmentioned.We
expecttheneedforqualitysafehavenallocationsotherthanUSDassetstosteadilygrow.
GEOPOLITICAL OUTLOOK & IMPLICATIONS
Data Source –US Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis

21. Our assessment of major geopolitical developments and implications for
economies, financial markets and portfolio positioning.
Summary Statement:
"Across nearly all continents, political landscapes are dramatically shifting,
changing. Some are triggered by internal issues, while others are triggered by
geopolitical considerations as geopolitical fragmentation accelerates and further
solidifies into IAEBs, Ideologically Aligned Economic Blocs, a concept we
introduced in 2022. We believe this creates persistent inflationary pressures that
are not adequately priced in by markets nor adequately in the calculus of central
bank monetary policymakers.”
Market implications are broad and varied. First and foremost, policy rates will not
move lower to the extent of current market expectations, most industry and
central bank forecasts. As such, broad spillover will impact the economic outlook,
all asset classes, volatility and portfolio positioning.
Belal Mohammed Khan
Geopolitics -Implications
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
21

22. Select charts, data and economic papers worth noting with possible portfolio
implications.
Summary Statement:
“We are cautiously constructive on the medium to long-term growth outlook for global
growth, particularly the US and China, while being concerned about the outlook for the EU, UK,
and Japan. We believe that out of the large economies, the governments of the US and China
are the most hands-on and aggressive regarding selectively engineering their economies for
long-term robustness. China is the leader in this space. However, reliance on personal
consumption will increasingly become problematic. Thus, China is better positioned for a
sustained growth recovery.”
Belal Mohammed Khan
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
22
Economic Data

23. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
23
Data Source: OECD, June 28, 2024
ECONOMIC DATA: Composite Leading Indicators -Global
The composite leading indicator is a times series formed by aggregating a variety of component indicators which show a reasonably consistent relationship with a reference series (e.g. industrial production IIP up
to March 2012 and since then, the reference series is GDP) at turning points. The OECD CLI is designed to provide qualitativeinformation on short-term economic movements, especially at the turning points,
rather than quantitative measures. Therefore, the main message of CLI movements over time is the increase or decrease rather than the amplitude of the changes. The OECD’s headline indicator is the
amplitude-adjusted CLI. In practice, turning points in the de-trended reference series have been found about 4 to 8 months (on average) after the signals of turning points had been detected in the headline CLI.
Detailed information on the OECD methodology for CLIs can be found on the OECD website at OECD CLIS
Most advanced and emerging economies have been steadily improving; however, the consumer is increasingly at risk given the higher
rate environment, which we believe will persist for a secular cycle. Selective defensive allocations will likely perform better than
cyclical allocations in the months ahead. Some economies are more vulnerable, so country selection will be key. The US and UKwill
be the most vulnerable and expect their Composite Leading Indicators to begin to fade and trend lower.

24. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
24
Data Source: OECD, June 28, 2024
38.5
46.0
48.0
50.0
52.052.5
54.054.5
55.555.5
56.5
57.5
58.5
59.5
61.5
63.5
65.5
66.5
67.7
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Which Countries are more at risk in a high rate secular cycle environment?
Consumer Spending as % of GDP
Portfolio Implications: If we are correct in our assessment that the higher-rate environment and inflation are here to stay for a secular cycle,
then the consumer will increasingly be weighed down, and countries that heavily rely on personal consumption will grow slowerthan countries
that rely less. From a portfolio positioning perspective, investors should review their country allocations and adjust, moving from economies with
greater reliance on personal consumption to economies with lower reliance on personal consumption.
ECONOMIC DATA: High-Rate Environment, Country Positioning Clues

25. ECONOMIC DATA: US –Personal Consumption is Key
25
US Personal Consumption at Risk: We expect US consumer activity to fade faster while government spending remains
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
-
July 2024
55.0
57.0
59.0
61.0
63.0
65.0
67.0
69.0
71.0
1947-01-01 1948-06-01 1949-11-01 1951-04-01 1952-09-01 1954-02-01 1955-07-01 1956-12-01 1958-05-01 1959-10-01 1961-03-01 1962-08-01 1964-01-01 1965-06-01 1966-11-01 1968-04-01 1969-09-01 1971-02-01 1972-07-01 1973-12-01 1975-05-01 1976-10-01 1978-03-01 1979-08-01 1981-01-01 1982-06-01 1983-11-01 1985-04-01 1986-09-01 1988-02-01 1989-07-01 1990-12-01 1992-05-01 1993-10-01 1995-03-01 1996-08-01 1998-01-01 1999-06-01 2000-11-01 2002-04-01 2003-09-01 2005-02-01 2006-07-01 2007-12-01 2009-05-01 2010-10-01 2012-03-01 2013-08-01 2015-01-01 2016-06-01 2017-11-01 2019-04-01 2020-09-01 2022-02-01 2023-07-01
US Personal Consumption Expenditures as Share of GDP
Percent, Quarterly, 1947 -Q1 2024
Historical Average Term
steady and business spending related to AI will rise. Given the sizable role of personal spending in the US economy, it will grow at a smaller
pace as the longer-lasting high interest rate environment and inflation will persist while wage gains will slow. The chart belowshows US
personal consumption expenditures as a percent of GDP at 67.7 for Q1 2024. If the higher rate environment is to persist, theneconomies
with large dependency on personal consumption will be at risk, the US and the UK in particular.

26. US -The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly*
NBER Working Paper, Feb. 2024. The paper argues that the disconnect between inflation measurement and actual increases in the
cost of living due to higher financing costs faced by consumers underpins the recent divergence between official inflation data and
consumer sentiment. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index sat one standard deviation below its historical average in
December (Figure 1B).The consumer is under greater stress than markets realize.
ECONOMIC DATA –Research Review –US Consumer at Risk
26
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation
Update
-
July 2024
“…the current level of consumer
sentiment is lower than what should be
expected given the unemployment rate
and current official inflation measures.
Concerns over the cost of living remain
elevated despite falling official
inflation.*”
Weexpectasharpercontractionin
discretionaryspending,whichmayraise
rate-cutexpectations.However,central
bankswillnotbeabletorespondaswe
expectcyclicalinflationtohavehitatrough,
whilesecularinflationarypressurewill
persist.Monetarypolicyconfusionwill
resurfaceandtriggerhighermarketvolatility
astheyearends.
* The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly –NBER Working Paper, Feb. 2024 (Marijn A. Bolhuis, Judd N. L.
Cramer, Karl Oskar Schulz, and Lawrence H. Summers )

27. 27
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
-
July 2024
US -The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly*—NBER Working
Paper, Feb. 2024. The paper argues that the disconnect between inflation measurement and actual increases in the cost of living
due to higher financing costs faced by consumers underpins the recent divergence between official inflation data and consumer
sentiment. The consumer is under greater stress than markets realize.
* The Cost of Money is Part of the Cost of Living: New Evidence on the Consumer Sentiment Anomaly –NBER Working Paper, Feb. 2024 (Marijn A. Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer,
Karl Oskar Schulz, and Lawrence H. Summers )
Figure3A:MortgageinterestpaymentandCPI.
Figure3B:CarloaninterestpaymentandCPI.
Figure3A:Thebluelineshowsthemonthly
averagemortgageinterestpaymentforanew
home,computedastheproductofthe30-year
mortgagerate.Theredlineisthelevelofthe
headlineCPIfromtheBureauofLaborStatistics
(BLS),whichisalsonormalizedto100for
December2019.
Figure3B:bluelineisthemonthlyaveragenew
carinterestpayment,computedastheproduct
oftheaveragemonthlyfinancerateon48-month
loansfornewautos(Figure2B)andtheprice
indexfornewvehiclesintheCPIfromtheBLS.
Mortgage interest payment (30Y)
Headline CPI
Figure 3A: Mortgage interest payment & CPIFigure 3B: Car loan payment and CPI
Car loan interest payment
Headline CPI
ECONOMIC DATA –Research Review –US Consumer at Risk

28. ECONOMIC DATA –US –Two-speed economy?
28
KeyfindingsforUSJuneFlashPMI:
PMICompositeOutputIndexat54.6(May:54.5).26-monthhigh.
ServicesActivityIndexat55.1(May:54.8).26-monthhigh.
ManufacturingOutputIndexat51.9(May:53.0).2-monthlow.
ManufacturingPMI(3)at51.7(May:51.3).3-monthhigh.
The US S&P Global Flash Composite PMI® revealed that output growth hit a 26-month high in June, and price pressures
faded. We believe the US economy is simultaneously being pushed back and pulled forward. Depending on what part of the
economy one focuses on, the economy appears to be losing or gaining momentum. Given the sizeable role of personal
consumption and our inflation and interest rate outlook, we expect the economic drag for slowing personal consumption will
be the dominant variable, and the economy will grow slower. However, at the same time, we expected input price pressures
to remain generally firm. For clues to the US economic outlook, the consumer is key.
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
USbusinessactivitygrowthacceleratedtoitsfastestfor26months
inJune,accordingtoprovisionalPMIsurveydatafromS&PGlobal,
signalingastrongendtothesecondquarter.Theservicesectorled
theupturnwithadditionalsupportfrommanufacturing,albeitwith
thelatter’srecentrevivallosingmomentum.Improvedbusiness
confidencefortheyearahead,notablyintheservicesector,and
renewedpressureonoperatingcapacityfromrisingdemand,
meanwhileencouragedfirmstoboostpayrollnumbersforthefirst
timeinthreemonths.Thesurvey’sgaugeofsellingpriceinflation
meanwhilefell,linkedtoslowergrowthofinputcosts,topointtoa
moderationofinflationarypressures.

29. ECONOMIC DATA –US –Consumer Sentiment
29
USConsumerSentimentfellfor3
rd
straightmonthto65.6in
June2024from69.1.Thisissignificantandsupportsourviewthat
consumersfaceamuchhighercostoflivingthanwhatisreflected
ininflationandpricesdata.Asconsumereconomicactivitydata
slowscentralbankswilllookforopportunitiestomoveawayfrom
tightmonetarypolicybutwillbeunabletodosogivenpersistent
inflationarypressuresfromsecularforcesincludingeconomic
nationalism.Implications–Addtodefensesectorallocation.
US Consumer vs Government and Business Spending: We expect US consumer activity to fade faster while government
spending remains steady and business spending related to AI will rise. Given the sizable role of personal spending for the US
economy, it will grow at a smaller pace as personal consumption declines in quarters ahead.
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
-
July 2024
Consumersindevelopedeconomieswillbegintocontractactivitymore
sharplyasthehigherinterestenvironmentlastslongerthanmanyexpect.
Governmentandbusinessspending,especiallyrelatedtoAIand
automationingeneral,willoffsettheexpectedslowerconsumeractivity.
Whiletheconsumerhasbeensomewhatresilient,thestressesofhigher
ratesarenowsurfacingmorereadily.Therecentconsumersentiment
(chartontheright)reportisanexample.
TheNBERFeb2024workingpaper,TheCostofMoneyisPartofthe
CostofLiving:NewEvidenceontheConsumerSentimentAnomaly,
highlightsthepressureconsumersarefacing,butthispressureisnot
beingcapturedbyexistingeconomicreports.Thepaperstates,“Thecost
ofmoneyisnotcurrentlyincludedintraditionalpriceindexes.This
indicatesadisconnectbetweenthemeasuresfavoredbyeconomistsand
theeffectivecostsbornebyconsumers.WeshowthatthelowsinUS
consumersentimentthatcannotbeexplainedbyunemploymentand
officialinflationarestronglycorrelatedwithborrowingcostsandconsumer
creditsupply.Concernsoverborrowingcosts,whichhavehistorically
trackedthecostofmoney,areattheirhighestlevelssincetheVolcker-
era.”Keychartsfromthispaperareonthefollowingsidesforyourreading
andcontemplatingpleasure.Implications–defensivemarketsand
sectorsshouldoutperformcycleallocation.

30. Select charts, data and economic papers worth noting with possible portfolio
implications.
Summary Statement:
“We are cautiously constructive on the medium to long-term growth outlook for global
growth, particularly the US and China, while being concerned about the outlook for the EU, UK,
and Japan. We believe that out of the large economies, the governments of the US and China
are the most hands-on and aggressive regarding selectively engineering their economies for
long-term robustness. China is the leader in this space. However, reliance on personal
consumption will increasingly become problematic. Thus, China is better positioned for a
sustained growth recovery.”
Market implications are broad and varied. First and foremost, policy rates will not move
lower to the extent of current market expectations, most industry and central bank forecasts.
As such, broad spillover will impact the economic outlook, all asset classes, volatility and
portfolio positioning.
Belal Mohammed Khan
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
30
Economic Data -Implications

31. Charts and tables highlighting our portfolio positioning vs. the SAA.
We trimmed gains in April by moving our equity from overweight to
neutral, and in May, we moved the equity allocation to underweight.
However, having missed the rally in May and June has been a small
disappointment, but we are convinced markets will fadeand weaken
going into Q3 andQ4 for reasons mentioned earlier.
As such, we are comfortable with our underweight in both fixed income
and equities and overweight on cash, gold, industrial metals and
volatility.
Portfolio Positioning
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
31

32. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
32
The chart depicts our strategic allocation for
our moderate risk model liquid portfolio.
SAA weights are reviewed in Q4 of each
year unless needed due to extreme market
moves.
Portfolio: Model Moderate Risk Portfolio USD SAA -Liquid Assets

33. 33
Thechartillustratesourcurrenttacticalasset
allocationforourmodelmoderate-riskUSD
portfolio.Thisallocationresultsfromour
thoroughanalysisandstrategicdecision-
making,providingasolidfoundationforour
investmentstrategy.
1)TherearenoTAAadjustmentsforJulyat
thebroadassetclasslevel.
2)Weremainunderweightinbothmajor
assetclassesinanticipationofincreased
stressandvolatility,primarilydueto
geopoliticalandpoliticalconcernsasQ4
nears.
3)Theoverweightinindustrialmetals
remainsinplaceasweexpectdemandto
growsteadilyforvariousreasons,
includingnationaleconomicsecurity
strategiesbeingimplementedinmany
developedanddevelopingcountries.
Portfolio: Model Moderate Risk Portfolio USD TAA Liquid Assets –July 2024
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024

34. PORTFOLIO
Took Gains
/ Risk-Off
Given risk concerns, our model-moderate risk USD portfolio has been in a risk-off position at the asset class
level since May. The combination of geopolitical, political, and inflation uncertainty is too elevated for our
comfort, especially given the very attractive cash rates, which pay well for being prudent.
RISK Elevated
Elevated uncertainty across geopolitics, politics and inflation outlook suggests headwinds ahead for markets in
Q3 and Q4. We expect inflationary pressures to resurface and growth to slow in US which will create greater
uncertainty around the monetary policy outlook.
CASH AttractiveNo change. Holding overweight since April, added to it in May. Cash provides an attractive risk-adjusted return.
FIXED INCOME
Expect
Weakness
No change. Holding underweight since Q4 2023. In developed market sovereigns, we are overweight short-
duration, underweight long-duration, and overweight select emerging market debt, China, Brazil, and the GCC.
EQUITY
Expect
Weakness
No change. Underweight since May and overweight in select defensive markets and sectors. Also, hold a China
overweight. Investment themes preference includes AI, Aging, Fitness/Wellness, Bio-Tech.
COMMODITIES
Supportive
Outlook
No Change. Holding GOLD overweight on BRIC Plus central bank demand and our secular inflation call. Given
the expectations of increased defencespending worldwide and China’s recovery, we also hold an overweight
position on industrial metals.
OTHER
Volatility
Attractive
No Change. Holding an overweight since May on expectation of rising geopolitical, political and inflation
uncertainty.
CURRENCIES
USD our
Choice
No Change. We are overweight USD vs all majors except JPY. We continue to expect the Japanese central
bank to signal a change in monetary policy, which should push JPY to stronger levels. We have hedged
portfolios for USD strength.
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
34
Tactical Asset Allocation Summary -July

35. 35
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
CASH Fixed IncomeEquities Gold Volatility
Commodities -
Industrial
Metals
SAA 5 30 60 5 0 0
TAA 9 25 55 7 2 2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
KS Advisory -Model Moderate Risk USD Portfolio, % Weight
SAA vs. TAA July 2024
Portfolio –Positioning vs SAA –July 2024

36. 36
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
CASH Fixed Income Equities Gold Volatility
Commodities -
Industrial Metals
Active Risk 4 -5 -5 2 2 2
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Percent %
KS Advisory -Model Moderate Risk USD Portfolio
Active Risk -July 2024
Portfolio –Active Risk Positioning vs SAA –July 2024

37. Some points and considerations to ponder. Reach out to discuss and exchange views:
1)How likely is KS Advisory’s view that the world has entered a secular inflation
period correct?
2)How achievable is the KS Advisory year-end target of 5.25% for the US ten-
year gov. note yield?
3)How probable is the KS Advisory EUR/USD 0.92-0.95 target range for year-
end 2024?
4)What is the biggest, best trade for a Trump victory?
Identify sectors and assets that could benefit from policies typically associated with a Trump administration,
such as deregulation, tax cuts, and trade policies. What are the strategic trades that could maximize returns
in this scenario?
Questions to Ponder
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
37

38. Charts and tables of market performance.
Please reach out if you would like to discuss market performance data
findings.
Market Data
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
38
Data is sourced from S&P Global and Google Finance, Central Banks and the BIS.

39. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 202439
US FIXED INCOMEUS Fixed Income Return Avg. CorrelationCorrelation
Asset Class 6/30/202412/31/2023YTD - 2024Maturity Yearsto 10 Yrto S&P500
2-Year 4.71% 4.23% 1.10% 2.0 0.76 0.00
5-Year 4.33% 3.84% -0.42% 5.0 0.94 -0.03
TIPS 2.08% 1.72% 0.70% 7.1 0.72 0.33
10-Year 4.36% 3.88% -2.03% 10.0 1.00 -0.08
30-Year 4.51% 4.03% -6.20% 30.0 0.93 -0.12
US Agg 5.00% 4.53% -0.71% 8.4 0.89 0.25
IG Corps 5.48% 5.06% -0.49% 10.7 0.67 0.48
Convertibles 7.01% 7.26% 1.87% - -0.06 0.86
US HY 7.91% 7.59% 2.58% 4.9 0.06 0.78
Municipals 3.72% 3.22% -0.40% 13.4 0.71 0.26
MBS 5.22% 4.68% -0.98% 7.7 0.80 0.26
ABS 5.78% 5.65% 3.09% 3.6 0.36 0.24
Leveraged Loans 10.16% 10.59% 4.62% 4.6 -0.22 0.62
Yield

40. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 202440
GLOBAL FIXED INCOMEGlobal Fixed Income
Aggregrates & SectorsJun 30 2024Dec 31 2023 Local USD Duration Correlation to US 10 yr
U.S. 5.00% 4.53% -0.71% -0.71% 6.1 0.92
Global ex-US 3.18% 2.87% - -4.71% 6.9 0.64
Japan 1.16% 0.76% -2.43% -14.49% 8.9 0.64
Germany 3.14% 2.73% -0.83% -3.78% 6.2 0.57
UK 4.60% 4.10% -1.87% -2.70% 8.0 0.56
Italy 3.82% 3.40% -0.21% -3.19% 6.1 0.44
China 2.17% 2.62% 3.88% 1.39% 6.0 0.55
Euro Corp 3.82% 3.56% 0.54% -2.45% 4.4 0.45
Euro HY 7.02% 7.35% 3.23% 0.15% 3.1 0.05
EMD (USD) 8.41% 7.84% - 2.34% 5.7 0.37
EMD (LCL) 6.60% 6.19% 1.58% -3.71% 5.0 0.26
EM Corp. 6.70% 6.81% - 3.85% 5.0 0.27
Yield 2024 Return

41. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
41Europe Fixed Income YieldJune YTD 12M
S&P U.K. Inflation-Linked (GBP) 1.19%0.13%-3.84%-0.17%
S&P U.K. Bond (GBP) 4.38%1.22%-3.03%4.06%
S&P France Sovereign 3.22%-0.29%-3.00%1.03%
S&P Greece Sovereign 3.60%-0.49%-2.25%3.05%
S&P Eurozone Sovereign 3.26%0.17%-1.63%2.11%
S&P Germany Sovereign 2.67%1.43%-1.46%1.93%
S&P Eurozone Sovereign Inflation-Linked1.50%-0.41%-1.26%-0.33%
S&P Spain Sovereign 3.30%0.38%-0.53%3.54%
S&P Eurozone 7-10 Year IG Corp 3.90%0.65%-0.22%6.76%
S&P Italy Sovereign 3.74%-0.01%-0.01%3.82%
S&P Eurozone IG Corp 3.83%0.61%0.57%5.78%
S&P Switzerland Sovereign 0.65%3.14%0.91%4.68%
Europe Fixed Income

42. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
42Local USD Local USD Ann. Beta
U.S. (S&P 500) - 15.3 - 26.3 14.8 1.0
AC World Ex-US 11.0 6.0 14.7 16.2 6.7 1.0
EAFE 11.5 5.7 16.8 18.9 7.3 1.0
Europe 10.3 6.2 17.3 22.7 8.1 1.2
Emerging 11.2 7.7 10.3 10.3 5.3 1.0
Japan 21.5 6.5 29.0 20.8 6.4 0.7
U.K. 7.8 6.9 7.7 14.1 6.5 1.0
France 1.6 -1.4 18.1 22.3 7.8 1.2
Canada 6.0 2.2 13.3 16.4 6.8 1.1
Germany 9.6 6.3 19.8 24.0 7.0 1.3
China 5.2 4.8 -10.6-11.0 2.8 0.9
Taiwan 37.0 29.6 31.1 31.3 13.8 1.0
India 17.4 17.1 22.0 21.3 9.0 0.9
Brazil -6.9 -18.6 22.7 33.4 0.9 1.3
YTD 2024 2023Global Equity
Returns
15-Years
GLOBAL EQUITY

43. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
43Europe Equities June YTD 12M
S&P Europe SmallCap -3.11%5.29%14.35%
S&P Europe MidCap -2.80%7.00%15.53%
S&P United Kingdom (GBP) -1.03%8.13%13.72%
S&P Euro (350 Eurozone) -2.46%9.20%14.62%
S&P Europe 350® -0.98%9.80%16.10%
S&P Europe Ex-UK LargeMidCap-0.83%9.99%17.78% S&P Europe 350 Sectors June YTD 12M
S&P Europe 350 Utilities -2.47%-2.43%0.03%
S&P Europe 350 Consumer Staples -2.70%-1.31%-3.66%
S&P Europe 350 Real Estate -5.09%-1.17%35.63%
S&P Europe 350 Materials -2.94%4.00%16.37%
S&P Europe 350 Consumer Disc -2.60%5.31%0.92%
S&P Europe 350 Energy -1.72%7.20%21.29%
S&P Europe 350 Comm Services -0.41%7.78%13.85%
S&P Europe 350 Industrials -3.50%9.46%20.45%
S&P Europe 350 Financials -2.80%14.77%28.38%
S&P Europe 350 Health Care 3.13%16.59%18.95%
S&P Europe 350 Information Technology8.42%24.92%34.71% European Equity Strategy June YTD 12M
S&P Europe Dividend Opportunities™-2.45%2.05%11.08%
S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrats®1.00%4.91%14.38%
S&P Europe 350 Buyback -2.96%5.21%13.18%
S&P Europe 350 Equal Weight -3.04%5.21%13.64%
S&P Europe 350 Low Volatility -1.60%5.38%3.66%
S&P Europe 350 Quality -0.12%12.27%21.19%
S&P Europe 350 Momentum 1.47%19.65%40.60%
EUROPE EQUITY

44. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update
-
July 2024
44US Equity June QTD YTD
S&P SmallCap 600® -2.28%-3.15% 0.72%
DJIA 1.12%1.73% 3.78%
S&P MidCap 400® -1.58%3.45% 6.17%
S&P Composite1500® 3.16%3.65% 14.35%
S&P 500® (index level: 5460) 3.59%4.28% 15.29%
S&P 500 ESG 3.45%5.08% 15.78%
S&P 500 Top 50 5.94%8.71% 21.94%
Nasdaq 6.91% 9% 19.55% Factor-Based Equity June QTD YTD
S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats-1.39%-4.58% 2.18%
S&P 500 High Beta -1.17%3.51% 3.17%
S&P 500 Low Volatility -0.16%0.80% 4.96%
Dow Jones U.S. Select Dividend2.00%1.01% 5.08%
S&P 500 Equal Weight -1.45%-2.63% 5.08%
S&P 500 Value -0.65%2.10% 5.79%
S&P 500 Low Volatility High Dividend1.15%1.00% 6.88%
S&P 500 Enhanced Value -1.17% -3% 9.80%
S&P 500 Quality 3.74%5.44% 18.33%
S&P 500 Growth 6.98%9.75% 23.55%
S&P 500 Momentum 7.62%9.30% 33.95% Sectors June QTD YTD
Utilities -5.51%-4.55% -7.11%
Real Estate 2.00%1.91% 2.45%
Materials -2.03%4.50% 4.05%
Industrials 0.09%-2.90% 7.75%
Health Care 1.91%0.98% 7.81%
Cons Staples 0.18%1.35% 8.98%
Financials 0.89%-2.03% 10.17%
Energy -1.12% 2% 10.93%
Comm Serv 4.80%9.37% 12.55%
Cons. Disc 4.89%6.65% 15.65%
Info Tec 9.32%13.81% 28.24%
US EQUITY

45. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
45
COMMODITIESCommodities June YTD
S&P GSCI Agriculture 1.19% 4.78%
Dow Jones Commodity (DJCI) 0.97% 8.31%
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 0.50% 8.51%
WTI 2.54% 9.67%
S&P GSCI 1.43% 11.08%
S&P GSCI Precious Metals -0.21% 13.48%
S&P GSCI Energy 0.58% 14.00%
Brent 3.27% 14.14%
Copper 2.54% 19.15%
Gold 0.46% 29.48%

46. KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
46
CURRENCIES –EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES (BIS)

47. Thank You
KS Advisory Monthly View and Tactical Asset Allocation Update -July 2024
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