Seeking a NEET Solution: Why are so many young people not learning or earning.

Seeking a NEET solution?

Why are so many young people not learning or earning.

1. Resolution
Foundation

Seeking a NEET solution

Why are so many young people not learning or earning?

Richard Rigby, Head of UK Government Affairs at The King's Trust

Barry Fletcher, Chief Executive Officer at Youth Futures
Foundation

Louise Murphy, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation
Chair: Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation

@resfoundation ÁNEETS October 25

2. rm Resolution
There are almost a million NEETs aged 16-24 Foundation

Number (left) and proportion (right) of young people aged 16-24 who are NEET: UK
left axis) Proportion of 16-24-year-olds who are NEET fight axis)

Number of 16-24-year-olds who are NEET

12m p+ 18%
Discontinuity due to
À data reweighi u
1.0m WALL N 15%
0.8m | | | | | NINA 4 | Wi 12%
0.6m INN INN i ll
0.4m | | | | | | | |) | | | 6%
0.2m | | IN Il | 3%
0 | | | | | | | Il | 0%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

SOURCE: RF analysis of ONS, Not in Education, Employment or Training (NEET) data Pe

2

3. We have a dual problem of stubborn unemployment and
rising health-related inactivity
Proportion of 16-24-year-olds who are not in education, employment or training for

various reasons: UK
GOD ii

A o seus En
Unemployed

Sick or disabled

0% | r r 5
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

NOTES: Data for 2025 refers to quarter Tony
‘SOURCE: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey

2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Resolution
Foundation

@restoundation

4. 4 a Resolution
NEETs are increasingly detached from the labour market Foundation

Proportion of NEETs who have never had a paid job, by age group: UK

100% rre
16-17,yoarolds

80%
1821 yearolds

20%

0%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

NOTES: Data for 2025 refer to quarter} only.

SOURCE: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey. ‘@resfoundation

5. Myth-bust #1: Lower qualified young people - not graduates — Resolution

have the greatest risk of being NEET Foundation
Proportion of NEETs and all young people by highest qualification level and age group:
UK, 2015-2025
Allyoung people fim
m Degree
mlevel4
mA Level or
Allyoung people equivalent
3
& =
E
NEETs
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
NOTES: Proportions averaged across 201 0 2025 due to small sample sizes, corodiouidilon

SOURCE: RF analysis of ONS, Labour Force Survey

6. Myth-bust #2: Out-of-work benefit claims are rising, but
almost half of NEETs don't claim benefits

Estimated number of young people aged 16-24 who are NEET, by benefit receipt: UK

@ Not claiming out-of-work benefits Claiming inactivity-related benefits
Claiming unemployment-related benefits Claiming any out-of-work benefit
© AINEETS

08m

06m

0.4m

0.2m

o

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

SOURCE: RF analysis of DWP, Statxplore; various administrative data sources (see Annex 1).

Resolution
Foundation

‘@restoundation

7. Myth-bust #3: Despite mandatory participation legislation, Resolution
we still have a problem of NEETs aged 16-17

Proportion of 16-17-year-olds who are not in education, employment or training (NEET): England

10%
8%
6%

4%

2%

0%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

SOURCE: RF analysis of DIE, NEET and NET Estimates from the LFS, @restoundation 7

8. Resolution
Foundation

How should policy makers respond?

@restoundation

9. 1: Better enforce mandatory participation for 16-17-year-olds
Proportion of 16-17-year-olds who are NEET or ‘not known, in England and for top 5 and
bottom 5 local authorities: England, 2025
City of London |
Barnet
Rutland
Kingston upon Thames |

Waltham Forest

England

West Sussex 15%
Swindor O +
Herefordshire | 12.55
Northumberiand ME 15.17
AA A >.

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

8

SOURCE: RF analysis of DIE, Participation in education, training and NEET age 16 to 17 by local authority.

Resolution
Foundation

@restoundation 9

10. 5 Resolution
2. Introduce a bigger and bolder Youth Guarantee Foundation

Estimated number of young people aged 18-24 who are NEET, by age and benefit receipt: UK

claiming m1821-notclaiming m18-21-claiming

- not claiming 22-2

800k

600k

400k

200k

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

@restoundation 10

11. 3. Undertake ambitious changes to benefits for young people,

not an arbitrary cut for under 22s
Proportion of young people in receipt of unemployment-related benefits (left) and
inactivity-related benefits (right), by single year of age: UK, 2019 and 2024

Inactivity-related benefits

Unemployment-related benefits

10%

5.0%

2.5% 5%

16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Age Age

SOURCE: RF analysis of DWP, Statxplore; NOMIS, Population estimates local authority based by single year of age.

Resolution
Foundation

@restoundation

n

12. Resolution

4. Don't abolish youth minimum wage rates Foundation
Youth minimum wage rates as a proportion of the adult rate: UK
90%

18-20 as share of 25+ 82%
80% +
70% |

62%
40% |
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
@restoundation 12

Source: RF analysis of Low Pay Commission data.

13. Resolution
Foundation

Seeking a NEET solution

Why are so many young people not learning or earning?

Richard Rigby, Head of UK Government Affairs at The King's Trust

Barry Fletcher, Chief Executive Officer at Youth Futures
Foundation

Louise Murphy, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation
Chair: Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation

@resfoundation ÁNEETS October 25

14. | Audience Q&A

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15. Resolution
Foundation

Seeking a NEET solution

Why are so many young people not learning or earning?

Richard Rigby, Head of UK Government Affairs at The King's Trust

Barry Fletcher, Chief Executive Officer at Youth Futures
Foundation

Louise Murphy, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation
Chair: Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation

@resfoundation ÁNEETS October 25

16. %

2o,

x)
ES

Wha would be the most effective
approach to boosting employment
among young people?

Y =
O-

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17. Resolution
Foundation

Seeking a NEET solution

Why are so many young people not learning or earning?

Richard Rigby, Head of UK Government Affairs at The King's Trust

Barry Fletcher, Chief Executive Officer at Youth Futures
Foundation

Louise Murphy, Senior Economist at the Resolution Foundation
Chair: Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation

@resfoundation ÁNEETS October 25