Singapore_Case_Detailed_Discussion_v2.pptx

Singapore_Case_Detailed_Discussion_v2.pptx

1. Singapore - Facing Challenges Together: Detailed Discussion Deck Instructor Version (compatibility-safe)

2. Case Overview and Outcomes Small open economy policy mix under global shocks and structural headwinds Outcomes: model-based diagnosis, trilemma clarity, savings and current account link, TFP levers

3. Extended Teaching Plan (90-120 minutes) A 0-10: Poll, priors, exhibits B 10-25: Facts board C 25-45: Models AD-AS and Mundell-Fleming D 45-65: Short-run toolkit E 65-90: Long-run growth and risks F 90-110: Bundles A B C debate G 110-120: Wrap and assessment

4. Macro Snapshot - Organize Facts Real GDP: moderate trend; cyclical sensitivity Inflation: imported component important Unemployment: generally low; skills mismatch risk Current account: persistent surplus Fiscal stance: prudent with space Exchange rate: basket-band-crawl Savings and CPF: high national savings Demographics: aging population

5. Policy Framework - Exchange-Rate Centered Instrument is NEER band (basket, band, crawl) Levers: slope, recenter, band width Transmission: ER to import prices and net exports Interest rate is largely endogenous with open capital account

6. Mundell-Fleming - Intuition High capital mobility: domestic rate aligns with world rate plus premium ER targeting neutralizes independent rate setting Fiscal effects face import leakages; NX is key stabilization channel ER appreciation lowers inflation but dampens AD via NX

7. AD-AS Mapping Demand shocks: global demand, tourism, finance Supply shocks: energy, imported inputs, logistics ER appreciation: AD down via NX, SRAS right via cheaper imports Fiscal transfers and public investment: AD shift; productivity: LRAS shift

8. Shock Scenarios Grid Global demand slowdown: AD down; NX down; response: fiscal support; neutral or looser ER slope Energy price spike: cost-push; response: targeted transfers; allow some ER appreciation Supply-chain move: sectoral reallocation; response: investment and skills Global financial tightening: capital costs up; response: maintain ER band credibility

9. Short-Run Toolkit Details Fiscal: targeted transfers, wage subsidies, vouchers, capex acceleration, temporary tax relief ER stance: steepen or flatten slope; recenter; adjust band width Macro-prudential: LTV, buffers, sectoral credit guidance

10. Long-Run Growth Engines (TFP) Innovation, IP, university-industry links Human capital and digital adoption SME diffusion and export capability Urban, land, energy efficiency and green transition

11. Labor, Demographics, and CPF Aging and participation; immigration calibration CPF and high savings: effects on consumption and external balance

12. External Balance and S minus I Current account equals savings minus investment High savings support surplus and policy buffers

13. Sector Lens for ER Moves Appreciation: export margins squeeze; cheaper inputs; households gain purchasing power; disinflation Depreciation: exports boost; imported inflation risk; tourism gains

14. Policy Bundle A - Social Compact Measures: wage floors, targeted transfers, housing affordability Risks: competitiveness, fiscal cost Metrics: median wage, Gini, unit labor cost, core inflation

15. Policy Bundle B - Productivity and Innovation Measures: R and D credits, co-funding adoption, cluster strategy Risks: capture, slow diffusion Metrics: TFP, patents, export sophistication, SME productivity

16. Policy Bundle C - Geo-Hedging and Green Measures: supply-chain diversification, ASEAN ties, carbon pricing, green infra Risks: transition costs, coordination Metrics: market diversity, carbon intensity, resilience

17. Role-Play Prompts Each role: one ask and one red line MAS, MOF, EDB/Industry, SME Owner, MNC Executive, Young Worker, Elderly Citizen

18. Quant Mini-Exercises ER appreciation by 3 percent: outline effects on NX, AD, inflation path Growth accounting with slower labor growth: estimate required TFP Explain how high national savings sustain the current account surplus

19. Assessment Rubric ER stance justification: model-based Policy picks: coherent with ER choice Distributional awareness: winners and losers identified

20. Board Plan 1 Facts, 2 Diagnosis, 3 Model, 4 Policies, 5 Risks, 6 Decision Keep all boxes visible and reference throughout discussion

21. Appendix - Questions Bank What ER stance balances imported inflation risk and growth? How does CPF and high savings shape fiscal space and current account? Which TFP lever diffuses fastest and why? What distributional offsets are needed for any chosen bundle?