SlideShare ONS Economic Forum Slidepack - 23 September 2024

ONS Economic Forum 23 September 2024

1. ONS Economic Forum 23 September 2024 Chair – Grant Fitzner @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido # 15694 Chief Economist Office for National Statistics

2. Agenda 09:30am – 09:35am   Welcome and introduction – Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist, Office for National Statistics 09:35am – 09:50am State of the UK economy – Kathryn Keane , Economist, Office for National Statistics 09:50 am – 10:00am Understanding skill and qualification suitability in the labour market – Gueorguie Vassilev , Head of skills and human development, Office for National Statistics 10:00 am – 10:10am   Labour demand volumes by Standard Occupation Classification – Gueorguie Vassilev , Head of skills and human development, Office for National Statistics 10:10am – 10:25am Questions and answers 10:25am – 10:30am Closing remarks – Grant Fitzner, Chief Economist, Office for National Statistics @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #15694

3. State of the UK Economy September 2024 Kathryn Keane Economist Office for National Statistics @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido # 15694

4. Economic growth was flat in July Source: ONS Monthly GDP Source: ONS Monthly GDP

5. Retail sales volumes have increased slightly, though consumer confidence dipped in September Source: GfK Source: ONS Retail Sales Index

6. There are signs that the labour market is cooling, though it remains relatively tight Source: ONS Vacancies and Jobs Source: ONS Workforce Jobs & Real-Time Indicators

7. Nominal pay growth fell due to one-off payments last year Source: ONS Average Weekly Earnings Source: Bank of England Monetary Policy Report

8. Public sector net debt projections depend on productivity growth Source: OBR Fiscal Risks and Sustainability Source: ONS Public Sector Finances

9. CPI growth was unchanged in August Source: ONS BICS Source: ONS CPI

10. Central banks have recently cut interest rates Source: BoE, ECB Data Portal, FRED Source: Bank of England Database

11. Conclusions Offsetting rises and falls led to no growth in GDP in the month to July, but there was still positive growth over 3 months. The labour market remains relatively tight, whilst nominal wage growth fell due to one-off payments last year. Public sector net debt projections depend on assumptions of productivity growth. CPI growth remains slightly above target. Central banks have recently cut rates as previous rises continue to feed through into mortgages and other borrowing.

12. Head of skills and human development Office for National Statistics Understanding skills and qualification suitability Gueorguie Vassilev @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum s lido # 15694

13. Agenda Setting the scene Understanding skills and qualification suitability Data and methods Results Labour demand volumes by standard occupation classification Data Results Overall next steps

14. Setting the scene – mismatches and shortages Apprenticeships Further education Vocational training Brexit and migration Growth and productivity Economic inactivity Cost of skills shortages: £4bn - £40bn Digital skills shortage costs: £4bn - £6bn Numeracy shortage costs: up to £25bn UK Policy focus:

15. Data and methods

16. 2021 England and Wales Census – employed adults Most common highest qualification level (not subject) per occupation Qualification suitability data and methods Level Description No qualifications 1 Qualifications below A-level or equivalent (combining Census categories Level 1 and entry level, and Level 2 qualifications) 2 A-level or equivalent (combining the Apprenticeship and Level 3 qualification Census categories) 3 Higher education (Census category Level 4 qualifications and above)

17. 2021 England and Wales Census – employed adults Most common highest qualification level (not subject) per occupation Qualification suitability data and methods Level Description Most common qualification No qualifications Less qualified than average 1 Qualifications below A-level or equivalent (combining Census categories Level 1 and entry level, and Level 2 qualifications) Roofers, roof tilers and slaters 2 A-level or equivalent (combining the Apprenticeship and Level 3 qualification Census categories) More qualified than average 3 Higher education (Census category Level 4 qualifications and above)

18. Annual Population Survey – anyone who is working or has worked in the past 8 years O*NET taxonomy of skills, knowledge, generalised work activities and abilities required per occupation Skill levels Occupation to skills relationship – inferred based on current or most recent occupations Potential occupations based on inferred skills Skills suitability data and methods

19. Skills suitability metrics Number of people meeting an occupation’s skills requirements Number of people demonstrating each skill at each level Number of different occupations for which people met the skills requirements

20. Results

21. Potential mismatch * Indicates England and Wales employed adults, 2021

22. The most critical skills for the UK labour market are soft skills " Establishing and maintaining interpersonal relationships " "Updating and using relevant knowledge "

23. Subnational potential occupation distributions Distributions for: People meeting the skills to be care workers and home carers People meeting the skills to be painters and decorators

24. Greater underutilisation of women’s skills and qualifications in the labour market * Indicates England and Wales employed adults, 2021

25. Head of skills and human development Office for National Statistics Labour demand volumes by Standard Occupation Classification Gueorguie Vassilev @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum s lido # 15694

26. Data Martina Helme

27. 90,000 sources back to 2017 – clean to get to unique adverts Adverts posted and expiration dates ONS in-house method to assign an occupation based on the job title Adverts assigned geographies down to Local Authority (except London) Derived two statistics – snapshots and new adverts Textkernel online job adverts

28. Results

29. National level findings

30. December 2023 snapshot distribution across occupations

31. Sub-national findings UK average

32. Overall next steps

33. Next steps Bringing together demand and supply – occupational shortages (30 October 2024 planned article) Further sources of skills development – be-spoke survey collected Timelier and more granular demand estimates – monthly production, with further occupational detail Better quality – improved methods for occupation allocation, better representability, further occupational history for suitability More metrics – asking salary distribution, skills demand, skills salary relationship

34. For queries or further interest in the data: Get in touch at [email protected]

35. Closing remarks Grant Fitzner @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum Chief Economist Office for National Statistics slido # 15694

36. Forthcoming ONS economic analysis 24 September 2024 Average household income, UK: financial year ending 2023 25 September 2024 UK business; activity, size and location: 2024 30 September 2024 National Accounts theme day 2 October 2024 Consumer card spending: UK tourism related sectors: 2019 to 2024 (Provisional) 8 October 2024 Foreign direct investment, experimental UK subnational statistics: 2022 11 October 2024 Monthly GDP theme day 15 October 2024 Labour market theme day 16 October 2024 Prices theme day 1 7 October 2024 Disability pay gaps in the UK: 2014 to 2023 18 October 2024 The Population and the Economy All information on upcoming analysis can be found via the ONS website @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum s lido #15694

37. Upcoming ONS events Monday 30 September – Measuring the economy, taking on latest data The ONS will publish its latest estimates of UK Gross Domestic Product along with Balance of Payments incorporating trade data on 30 September 2024. We will be hosting a webinar after the releases to provide an overview of the published data and explain the background to the recently announced revisions of economic growth from our Blue Book and Pink Book changes. Monday 21 October 2024 – ONS Economic Forum We will be showcasing the latest economic and social developments including a wide range of analytic topics. Each month we will feature ‘State of the Economy,' providing a stocktake of the latest trends and developments. Registration to open shortly. Further details at:   ons.gov.uk/ economicevents or https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/o/the-office-for-national-statistics-33407052803 @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #15694

38. Upcoming ONS Local events Tuesday 24 September – ONS Local presents: What is productivity and why is it important? Tuesday 1 October – ONS Local presents: Health foundation local authority dashboard Thursday 10 October – ONS Local Workshop: Mapping data with Mapbox and PowerBI Wednesday 6 November – ONS Local presents: UK Gender Equality Indiex , a local authority level index Thursday 7 November – ONS Local Workshop: data maturity assessments in local government Further details at:   ons.gov.uk/ economicevents or https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/o/the-office-for-national-statistics-33407052803 @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #15694

39. Bringing data to life and the communications toolkit We have launched our new cross-government webinar series to show people how statistics are made on a whole range of topics – from environment to migration to prices. ‘Bringing data to life’ is a free monthly series, and the first four events are now available to register on Eventbrite . We have also released a new communications toolkit to help increase the public’s understanding of how data and statistics are used to benefit local communities. Alongside videos, case studies, and ready-made social media posts, the toolkit also includes our new teaching materials , ‘Navigating Numbers’, which includes lesson plans on business, industry and trade, inflation, and GDP. We welcome any feedback on these materials and to learn how you’ve used them. @ONSfocus #ONSEconForum slido #15694

40. Thank you for attending the Economic Forum You can keep up to date on all upcoming events via ons.gov.uk/economicevents   If you would like to ask a question or provide any feedback, please do so via [email protected]