Urea Price Chart, Trend, Index, News, Demand, and Forecast.pdf

The Urea Price Chart for Q2 2025 presents a fascinating picture of regional disparities, market volatility, and shifting supply-demand fundamentals across North America, Asia-Pacific (APAC), and Europe. The global urea market demonstrated varying price movements influenced by production constraints, export fluctuations, agricultural demand cycles, and energy market dynamics.

1. Urea Price Chart – Global Market Trends and Analysis (Q2 2025)
The Urea Price Chart for Q2 2025 presents a fascinating picture of regional disparities,
market volatility, and shifting supply-demand fundamentals across North America, Asia-
Pacific (APAC), and Europe. The global urea market demonstrated varying price
movements influenced by production constraints, export fluctuations, agricultural demand
cycles, and energy market dynamics.
This article delves deep into the Urea Price Index, regional spot price changes, and the
major factors that shaped Q2 2025’s market environment.
Overview of Global Urea Market Performance
During Q2 2025, global Urea prices experienced mixed trends, with a bullish market
in North America and Asia-Pacific, while Europe witnessed a largely bearish phase until
late June. The Urea Price Chart reflected how regional supply-demand imbalances,
production interruptions, and geopolitical concerns played decisive roles.
Urea remains a key nitrogen fertilizer used globally, and its pricing is influenced by natural
gas costs, agriculture demand, and trade policies. With agricultural seasons varying
regionally, the price chart serves as a mirror to both supply disruptions and seasonal
demand spikes.

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Urea Price Chart – North America Q2 2025 Overview
Price Trend Summary
The Urea Price in North America rose significantly quarter-over-quarter during Q2 2025,
as seen in the strong Urea Price Index. Price momentum strengthened steadily from April
through June, primarily due to supply-side constraints and seasonal demand recovery.
Domestic production issues further constrained supply, adding to the upward trajectory
reflected on the Urea Price Chart.
Key Factors Influencing North American Urea Prices
1. Production Disruptions:
One of the most critical factors affecting North American prices was production
halts at major manufacturing sites.
o Coffeyville Resources declared force majeure from June 3 to June 6, 2025,
disrupting the availability of urea and ammonia in the Midwest.
o Koch Industries’ Dodge City plant also faced operational limitations,
tightening regional availability.
These disruptions significantly influenced the Urea Price Index, triggering localized supply
shortages.
1. Demand Recovery in Agriculture:
The spring planting season boosted fertilizer consumption across key agricultural
states. Corn and wheat growers, in particular, increased urea procurement amid
favorable crop acreage projections. This surge in demand, combined with supply
limitations, led to elevated pricing throughout the quarter.
2. Freight and Distribution Costs:
Elevated logistics costs added another layer of inflationary pressure. Railcar and
trucking shortages, coupled with high fuel expenses, impacted urea transportation
from Gulf Coast suppliers to inland distributors.
Regional Price Performance
By late June 2025, Urea prices in the U.S. domestic market had surged notably,
with average spot prices in the Gulf region climbing approximately 8–10% quarter-over-
quarter.

3. The Urea Price Chart illustrates how North America transitioned from a stable Q1 to a tight
Q2 market due to cumulative supply shocks and firm agricultural demand.
Urea Price Chart – Asia-Pacific (APAC) Q2 2025 Analysis
Volatility and Market Rebound
In the Asia-Pacific region, particularly Indonesia, the Urea Spot Price (FOB Tanjung
Priok) exhibited pronounced volatility during Q2 2025.
Prices rose sharply in April, eased during May, and rebounded significantly in June.
By June 27, 2025, the spot price reached USD 445.00/MT, reflecting a 12.66% weekly
increase and sustaining a 12-week uptrend, signaling renewed market strength.
Major Drivers Behind APAC Urea Prices
1. Seasonal Agricultural Demand:
The planting season in Southeast Asia and South Asia (notably India and Vietnam)
drove heightened urea consumption. Importers increased spot market purchases to
replenish stocks amid tight regional availability.
2. Export Policies and Supply Chain Adjustments:
Export-oriented producers, especially in China and Indonesia, moderated
shipments to maintain domestic balance. China’s cautious stance on fertilizer
exports continued to affect the Urea Price Chart, limiting global availability and
firming up regional pricing.
3. Energy Market Influence:
Natural gas prices, a key feedstock for urea production, fluctuated during the
quarter, affecting production costs across the region. Indonesia and Malaysia faced
intermittent feedstock supply issues, contributing to elevated production costs.
4. Strong End-of-Quarter Momentum:
As June progressed, urea trading activity surged due to expectations of higher prices
in Q3. The APAC Urea Price Index reflected a strong rebound, supported by robust
Indian import tenders and restocking across ASEAN markets.
Country-Wise Market Insights
• China: Maintained export control to stabilize domestic prices; internal demand kept
markets firm.
• India: Active importer throughout June; tenders supported bullish regional
momentum.

4. • Indonesia: The FOB Tanjung Priok price benchmark became a key indicator, rising
consistently throughout late Q2.
The Asia-Pacific Urea Price Chart thus reflects an upward-sloping trendline through late
Q2, marking one of the most dynamic regional recoveries in the global fertilizer market.
Urea Price Chart – Europe Q2 2025 Market Dynamics
Bearish Start, Bullish Finish
The European Urea market followed a bearish trajectory through April and May 2025,
with prices declining amid weak demand, stable production, and falling ammonia
feedstock costs. However, as June unfolded, the trend reversed, leading to a bullish finish
for the quarter.
The Urea Price Chart across Europe shows a V-shaped curve, indicating early-quarter
declines followed by a late rebound.
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rea
Drivers of European Market Trends
1. Soft Agricultural Demand:
Demand across Central and Eastern Europe remained subdued due to delayed
planting seasons and adequate inventories from Q1. This weakened price levels in
the early months of the quarter.
2. Feedstock (Ammonia) Price Decline:
Falling ammonia prices in April and May reduced urea production costs, translating
into lower market offers. However, this also discouraged producers from ramping up
output, leading to a supply-demand equilibrium by June.
3. Geopolitical and Energy Market Influence:
Rising geopolitical tensions in June, particularly concerning gas supply disruptions
in Eastern Europe, created uncertainty. Buyers began restocking amid fears of price
spikes, pushing the Urea Price Index upward toward quarter-end.
4. Increased Trading Activity in June:
Renewed interest from traders and importers in June helped prices recover from
earlier lows. The Urea Price Chart for Europe shows a clear inflection point mid-
June, aligning with rising global prices and firming energy markets.

5. Regional Price Outlook
By the end of Q2 2025, European Urea prices stabilized and began an upward climb,
aligning with global sentiment. The rebound set the stage for a firmer Q3 outlook,
supported by the likelihood of tightening supply and geopolitical risks.
Comparative Analysis – Global Urea Price Chart Trends
Region Q2 2025 Trend Key Drivers
Quarter-End
Sentiment
North
America
Bullish
Production disruptions, planting
demand
Firm
APAC Volatile → Bullish Agricultural demand, export limits Strong
Europe
Bearish →
Rebounding
Weak early demand, geopolitical
shift
Recovering

The comparative Urea Price Chart highlights how regional conditions shaped global
sentiment. While Asia led the uptrend in late Q2, North America’s domestic supply issues
reinforced global tightness, and Europe followed with a delayed recovery.
Market Drivers Influencing the Global Urea Price Chart
1. Energy and Feedstock Costs
Urea is derived primarily from ammonia, produced using natural gas. Any fluctuation in
gas markets directly impacts urea production costs. In Q2 2025, global gas price stability in
April and May shifted toward volatility in June, aligning with rising urea prices.
2. Agricultural Demand Cycle
Seasonal planting patterns heavily influence the Urea Price Index. During Q2, both North
America and APAC entered peak agricultural activity, leading to significant inventory
drawdowns.
3. Export Restrictions
China’s cautious export stance continued to constrain global availability, keeping prices
elevated in APAC and indirectly supporting North American and European benchmarks.
4. Production Outages

6. Unexpected plant shutdowns or maintenance activities, such as those in Kansas and
Coffeyville, can dramatically reshape local price dynamics, as reflected in the North
American chart.
Outlook – Urea Price Forecast Beyond Q2 2025
The global Urea Price Chart suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook for Q3 2025. Analysts
expect prices to remain firm to slightly higher, given sustained agricultural demand and
potential energy market tightness.
• North America: Prices may stabilize if production normalizes, but strong
agricultural demand will limit downside risks.
• Asia-Pacific: Continued Indian imports and limited Chinese exports could maintain
upward momentum.
• Europe: Expected to mirror global bullish trends amid geopolitical uncertainty and
gas market fluctuations.
Overall, the Urea Price Index could continue its upward bias into early Q3, barring
significant changes in energy markets or government export policies.
Conclusion
The Urea Price Chart for Q2 2025 captures a dynamic quarter marked by regional
contrasts and interconnected market influences.
• North America experienced firming prices due to production disruptions and strong
agricultural demand.
• APAC saw robust spot price recovery, led by Indonesia’s strong export benchmarks
and Indian demand.
• Europe shifted from a bearish to a bullish tone by June, responding to geopolitical
and supply-side developments.
These movements emphasize how supply chain resilience, energy markets, and export
regulations collectively shape the global fertilizer economy. As stakeholders monitor the
evolving Urea Price Chart, attention will remain on production consistency, trade flows,
and seasonal agricultural cycles driving price volatility in the coming months.

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