Westside Future Fund Retail Baseline (in progress)

Bleakly Advisory Group is conducting a retail study as part of the Westside Future Fund's Land-Use Action Plan.

1. March 2016
DRAFT – In Progress
LAND-USE ACTION PLAN
RETAIL MARKET
BASELINE ANALYSIS

2. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
STUDY AREA BOUNDARIES

Study Area

MARTA Station Area .25-mile Radius

Beltline

H.E. Holmes

3. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
How many people might shop there?


What competition is there already?


RETAIL REALITY: SITE SELECTION
DEMAND
SUPPLY
SITE
SPACE
Which space best suits retailer’s
needs?
Which location will generate
the most sales?

4. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
How many people might shop there?
Demographics – population, household incomes (or total
purchasing power), characteristics, future growth
Retailers need to attract a certain number of people at certain
income levels in order to survive
Travel patterns – primary travel routes, traffic counts
DEMAND
Store Type Pop. Necessary to Support
Corner Store 500
Convenience Store 2,000
Delicatessan and Bakery 3,000
Snack Bar 3,000
Beauty Parlor 3,000
Drug Store 5,000
Hardware Store 5,000
Bank Branch 5,000
Supermarket 10,000
Thresholds of Community Stores (Rules of Thumb)

5. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
DEMAND
Retail demand in the Study Area currently comes from four main groups, driven
largely by residents and college students from the AUC. Local employees and tourists
make up the remaining demand segments.
The impact of these groups could shift over time with additional employment
opportunities and BeltLine development.
Residents
Employees
Tourists
College
Students

6. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
How many people might shop there?
Retailers typically follow demand with differing requirements for their stores.
Westside Study Area meets some, not all, of the national chain requirements.
Examples:
DEMAND
Store Trade Area Population Location/Other
National Drug
Store
2 mile radius 20,000 Intersection of two
main streets with
significant traffic
counts

Grocery Store 3 mile radius

20,000+ On high-visibility,
high traffic corridor

Pet Supermarket 3 mile radius 50,000 25,000 daily vehicle
traffic count

Firehouse Subs 3 mile radius 20,000+ $35,000 median
household income

Denny's 3 mile radius 40,000 30,000 daily vehicle
traffic count

7. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Population in the Study Area
decreased dramatically from
2000 to 2010, but is
currently trending upwards.
Projected to recover to 79% of
2000 population by 2021.
Study Area accounts for
6.6% of Atlanta residents
compared to 9.1% in 2000.


POPULATION
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020
Study Area
City of Atlanta
Relative Population Growth Index , 2000 to 2021
Population Study Area
City of
Atlanta
2000 Census 38,203 418,156
2010 Census 29,494 420,003
2016 Estimate 29,964 454,629
2021 Projection 30,255 479,455
Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.6% 0.0%
Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.3% 1.3%
Avg. Annual Growth Forecast
2016-2021 0.2% 1.1%
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
DEMAND

8. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Persons per Square Mile, By Block Group

116,000 – 618,000

22,000 – 116,000

4,000 – 22,000

1,000 – 4,000

0 – 1,000

Based on Data from ESRI
Population
density is greatest
in the western
portion of the
Study Area.
Greater
population
density will help
drive retail
demand.
Overall, city of
Atlanta population
density: 3,413
persons per
Square Mile


DEMAND
POPULATION DENSITY
Source: ESRI

9. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
The number of households in
the study area decreased by
26% from 2000 to 2010 and
Households in the Study Area
tend to be slightly larger than
those citywide.



Households Study Area
City of
Atlanta
2000 Census 13,197 169,050
2010 Census 9,822 185,484
2016 Estimate 10,089 207,248
2021 Projection 10,366 222,710
Avg. Annual Growth 2000-2010 -2.9% 0.9%
Avg. Annual Growth 2010-2016 0.4% 1.9%
Avg. Annual Growth Forecast
2016-2021 0.5% 1.4%
2016 Est. Avg. Household Size 2.35 2.04
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
CAGR 2000-2010 CAGR 2010-2016 CAGR 2016-2021
Study Area
City of Atlanta
2000-2010 2010-2016 2016-2021 (Forecast)
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
Annual Household Growth
DEMAND
HOUSEHOLDS

10. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
City of Atlanta median income is more
than double that of the Study Area.
Retailers look closely at median
household income in deciding where
to locate.




10
Household Income Study Area City of Atlanta
2016 Est. Median Household Income $ 24,047 $ 48,878
% of City Median Income 49% 100%
Households by Income
HH with income >$15K 3,318 33% 41,108 20%
HH with income $15K - $35K 3,147 31% 41,037 20%
HH with income $35K - $50K 1,351 13% 23,216 11%
HH with income $50K - $100K 1,686 17% 49,885 24%
HH with income > $100K 588 6% 52,002 25%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Less than $15K
$15K - $35K
$35K - $50K
$50K - $100K
More than $100K
Study AreaCity of Atlanta
Annual Household Income
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
DEMAND
INCOME

11. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Based on Data from ESRI
Median Household, Income,
By Block Group

$105,000 – $200,000

$73,000 – $105,000

$42,000 – $73,000

$10,000 – $42,000

$0 – $10,000


Study Area
households are
below most
typical income
thresholds to
attract a large
number of
national retail
chains.
Provides
opportunity to
meet retail
demand with
local retail
options.


DEMAND
INCOME
Source: ESRI

12. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Based on Data from ESRI
RETAIL SPENDING
DEMAND
Total Retail Spending/HH By
Census Tract


Because Study
Area households
are below
average income
thresholds,
current retail
spending in the
area, while
significant, is
below more
affluent
locations.


Source: ESRI

13. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Westside Study Area spending supports 1.5 million square
feet of retail currently (not including motor vehicles & parts)
2/3 of that spending takes place outside of the Westside Study Area.


Total Annual Resident
Consumer Expenditures
Supportable
Square Feet
Current Study Area
Occupied Retail Square
Feet
Westside Study
Area $372,769,436 1,500,000+/- 820,000
DEMAND
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
RETAIL SPENDING & SUPPORTABLE SQUARE FEET

14. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
The top three
retail store types:
Motor Vehicle &
Parts Dealers
Food & Beverage
Foodservice &
Drinking Places
account for 43%
of retail spending
by Study Area
residents.

This spending
pattern is
TYPICAL of
most American
retail trade areas.



CURRENT STUDY AREA RETAIL SPENDING BY STORE TYPE
Motor Vehicle & Parts
Dealers, $71,972,352
Furniture & Home
Furnishings Stores,
$7,472,734
Electronics & Appliances
Stores, $10,267,602
Building Material,
Garden Equipment
Stores, $38,415,840
Food & Beverage Stores,
$60,595,683
Health & Personal Care
Stores, $24,253,663
Gasoline
Stations,
$33,153,890
Clothing & Clothing
Accessories Stores,
$22,321,428
Sporting Goods, Hobby,
Book, Music Stores,
$11,230,418
General Merchandise
Stores, $52,714,646
Miscellaneous Store
Retailers, $12,988,608
Non-Store Retailers,
$41,161,455
Foodservice & Drinking
Places, $58,193,467
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data from Nielsen, Inc.
DEMAND

15. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
The difference
between demand
and supply
represents an
opportunity gap.
The positive values
by store type in the
area signifies
“leakage” of retail
spending to
locations outside of
the local market
area.
Nearly all store
categories in the
Study Area show
retail demand
potential to capture
retail spending
“leakage” back into
the Study Area.
Opportunity Gap – Retail Stores, Westside Study Area
-$20,000,000-$10,000,000 $0 $10,000,000$20,000,000$30,000,000$40,000,000
Furniture & Home Furnishings Stores
Electronics & Appliances Stores
Building Material, Garden Equip Stores
Grocery Stores
Health & Personal Care Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, Music Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Foodservice & Drinking Places
Current Over-Supply Current Under-Supply
DEMAND
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on data
from Nielsen, Inc.

16. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Based on Data from ESRI
DEMAND
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY GAP ANALYSIS
Total Retail Opportunity Gap By
Block Group



Nearly all block
groups west of
Lowery Blvd.
show
opportunities
to capture
retail leakage.
Source: ESRI

17. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 8
9
10
1.17,400
2.17,300
3.3,750
4.8,270
5.15,800
6.4,200
7.13,000
8.5,090
9.8,130
10.22,800
2014 GADOT Traffic Counts (ADT - Avg. Daily Trips)
DEMAND
TRAFFIC COUNTS
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group based on
data from GDOT

Traffic counts show
that Study Area
roads are generally
local-serving.
National retailers
typically seek at
least 15,000 ADT and
above for new store
placement.
Northside Drive
provides the
heaviest auto traffic
counts in the Study
Area (22,000+ ADT).

18. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Downtown
Atlanta
Study Area
3-Mile Radius
from
MLK/Lowery
0
366,000
Based on Data from CoStar
SUPPLY

While retail
demand
generally
outpaces
supply within
the Study Area
boundaries,
significant
retail nodes are
located nearby.

19. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
OVERVIEW
Year Total SF
Avg.
SF/Bldg. Vacant SF % Vacant
Annual
Absorption Avg Rent
2015 913,894 9,422 94,327 10.3% 500 $ 6.24
2014 913,894 9,422 82,677 9.0% (11,650) $ 6.24
2013 913,894 9,422 88,367 9.7% 5,690 $ 6.39
2012 913,894 9,422 132,600 14.5% 44,233 $ 6.67
2011 913,894 9,422 111,041 12.2% (21,559) $ 6.34
2010 909,894 9,478 119,800 13.2% 12,759 $ 5.75
2009 907,734 9,555 118,670 13.1% 1,030 $ 6.92
2008 907,734 9,555 110,370 12.2% (8,300) $ 7.91
2007 907,734 9,555 40,800 4.5% (69,570) $ 6.35
Study Area City of Atlanta
Total SF 913,894 61,411,089
Avg. SF/Bldg. 9,422 12,683
Vacant SF 94,327 3,750,077
% Vacant 10.3% 6.1%
Annual Absorption 500 103,405
Avg Rent $ 6.24 $ 15.55
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar

20. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Since the Great
Recession, the
Study Area’s share
of the City’s
occupied retail
space has been
below the share of
total space.
The Study Area’s
share of the city’s
retail space has
remained relatively
stable, dropping by
approximately 0.2%
over the past
decade.



1.0%
1.1%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.5%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
QTD
Total SF
Occupied SF
Study Area Share of City of Atlanta Retail Square Feet
STUDY AREA SHARE OF RETAIL VS. CITY OF ATLANTA
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group, based on data from CoStar

21. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
ANNUAL ABSORPTION
(100,000)
(50,000)
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
(500,000)
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015
Study Area Annual Retail Space Absorption
City of Atlanta Annual Retail Space Absorption
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,
based on data from CoStar

22. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Since the onset of the Great Recession retail vacancy rates in the Study Area
have remained above the city of Atlanta rate.
VACANCY
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
2000
Q1
2001
Q1
2002
Q1
2003
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
QTD
Study Area
City of Atlanta
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,
based on data from CoStar

23. Westside Future Fund Land Use Action Plan Retail Market Analysis
Retail rents in the
Study Area have
remained
significantly lower
than citywide rents
since 2008.
AVERAGE RENT
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
2008 Q12009 Q12010 Q12011 Q12012 Q12013 Q12014 Q12015 Q1 QTD
Study AreaCity of Atlanta
SUPPLY
Source: Bleakly Advisory Group,
based on data from CoStar