Celosphere 2019 Keynote: Process Mining - Past, Present, and Future

Keynote by Wil van der Aalst at the first Celosphere conference organized by Celonis in 2019. The first Celosphere attracted over 1000 participants. The keynote discusses the Past, Present, and Future of process mining.

From April 2nd to 4th, 2019, the process mining community gathered in Munich's Eisbach Studios for the first Celosphere.

The presentation “Process Mining: Past, Present, and Future” provides a reflective overview of how process mining has evolved over two decades, where it stands today, and how it will shape the future of data-driven process management. It begins by looking back at the origins of the field, highlighting the shift from traditional process management by modeling—rooted in Petri nets, BPM, workflow management, and simulation—to process management by mining, where real event data are used to discover, monitor, and improve processes. Key milestones mark the field’s growth, from the first algorithms such as the Alpha and Heuristic Miner and the development of the open-source tool ProM, to the founding of Celonis in 2011, the release of the first process mining books and MOOCs, and the recognition of process mining as a mainstream technology by Gartner in 2018.

Despite the vast potential, adoption remains hindered by human and data challenges: limited awareness, lack of training, reluctance toward transparency, and persistent data quality issues. A crucial distinction is drawn between process mining and traditional data mining—while the latter focuses on patterns in data, process mining explicitly reconstructs and evaluates process behavior over time.

Looking ahead, the presentation envisions a future “towards better processes”, in which process mining becomes more forward-looking and prescriptive. The focus shifts toward hybrid models seamlessly integrating process discovery and conformance checking, comparative process mining for benchmarking, and causal analysis to suggest real improvements rather than reinforce correlations. Making results actionable—through integration with robotic process automation (RPA) and other automation technologies—is seen as essential, as is embracing responsible process mining that safeguards fairness, confidentiality, and trust. The talk concludes with optimism: process mining has matured into a thriving global discipline, culminating in the launch of the International Conference on Process Mining (ICPM 2019), and continues to bridge data science and business improvement in transformative ways.

1. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
prof.dr.ir. Wil van der Aalst
RWTH Aachen University
W: vdaalst.com T:@wvdaalst
Process Mining
Past, Present, and Future

2. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Past
“bridging gaps”

3. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
< 1999
 1999
“process management by modeling”
Process mining
Process discovery
Conformance checking
Predictive analytics
“process management by mining”
Petri nets
Concurrency theory
BPM, WFM, etc.
Simulation
Formal methods

4. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
data process
process mining

5. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
BPM reality
process mining

6. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
IT business
process mining

7. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
•1999 start of process mining research at TU/e
•2000-2002 Alpha and Heuristic miner
•2004 first version of ProM
•2004-2006 token-based conformance checking,
organization mining, decision mining, etc.
•2007 first process mining company (Futura PI)
•2010 alignment-based conformance checking
•2011 founding of Celonis
•2011 first process mining book
•2014 Coursera process mining MOOC
•2016 “Process mining data science in action” book
•2018 Market Guide for Process Mining by Gartner
•2018 Celonis becomes a Unicorn
•2019 ICPM 2019 / Celosphere
Milestones
20 years of process mining

8. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Present
“event data are everywhere”

9. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
The technology is there!
•There are more than 25 commercial
process mining products, next to
open-source tools like ProM.
•All offer process discovery,
bottleneck analysis, filtering, etc.
•Increasing support for conformance
checking, root-cause analysis, and
process discovery that goes
beyond the simple directly-follows
graph.

10. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Starting point: Event data
event
71,043 events
12,666 cases
7 activities
Case ID Activity Resource Timestamp product prod-pricequantity address
… … …. … …. … … …
6350 place order Aiden 2018/02/13 14:29:45.000APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 5 NL-7751DG-21
6283 pay Lily 2018/02/13 14:39:25.000SAMSUNG Galaxy S6 32 GB 543.99 3 NL-7828AM-11a
6253prepare deliverySophia 2018/02/13 15:01:33.000APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 3 NL-7887AC-13
6257prepare deliveryAiden 2018/02/13 15:03:43.000SAMSUNG Galaxy S6 32 GB 543.99 1 NL-9521KJ-34
6185confirm payment Emily 2018/02/13 15:05:36.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 1 NL-9521GC-32
6218confirm payment Emily 2018/02/13 15:08:11.000APPLE iPhone 6s Plus 64 GB969,00 € 2 NL-7948BX-10
6245 make delivery Michael 2018/02/13 15:14:04.000APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 3 NL-7905AX-38
6272 pay Emily 2018/02/13 15:20:36.000APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 1 NL-7821AC-3
6269 pay Charlotte2018/02/13 15:25:21.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 1 NL-7907EJ-42
6212prepare deliverySophia 2018/02/13 15:43:39.000 HUAWEI P8 Lite 234,00 € 1 NL-7905AX-38
6323 send invoiceAlexander2018/02/13 15:46:08.000APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 1 NL-7833HT-15
6246confirm payment Jack 2018/02/13 15:56:03.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 3 NL-7833HT-15
6347 send invoice Jack 2018/02/13 15:57:42.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 3 NL-7905AX-38
6351 place order Zoe 2018/02/13 16:17:37.000APPLE iPhone 5s 16 GB 449,00 € 3 NL-9521GC-32
6204prepare deliverySophia 2018/02/13 16:31:28.000SAMSUNG Core Prime G361 135,00 € 1 NL-7828AM-11a
6204 make delivery Kaylee 2018/02/13 16:51:54.000SAMSUNG Core Prime G361 135,00 € 1 NL-7828AM-11a
6265confirm payment Lily 2018/02/13 16:55:55.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 4 NL-9521GC-32
6250confirm payment Jack 2018/02/13 17:03:26.000 MOTOROLA Moto G 199,00 € 4 NL-7942GT-2
6328 send invoice Lily 2018/02/13 17:30:16.000APPLE iPhone 6s 64 GB 858,00 € 4 NL-9514BV-16
6352 place order Aiden 2018/02/13 17:53:22.000APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 2 NL-9514BV-16
6317 send invoice Jack 2018/02/13 18:45:30.000APPLE iPhone 6s 64 GB 858,00 € 5 NL-7907EJ-42
6353 place order Sophia 2018/02/13 20:16:20.000APPLE iPhone 5s 16 GB 449,00 € 4 NL-7751AR-19
… … …. … … … … …

11. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Starting point: Event data
Case ID Activity Resource Timestamp product prod-pricequantity address
… … …. … …. … … …
6350 place order Aiden 2018/02/13 14:29:45.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 5 NL-7751DG-21
6283 pay Lily 2018/02/13 14:39:25.000SAMSUNG Galaxy S6 32 GB 543.99 3 NL-7828AM-11a
6253prepare deliverySophia 2018/02/13 15:01:33.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 3 NL-7887AC-13
6257prepare deliveryAiden 2018/02/13 15:03:43.000SAMSUNG Galaxy S6 32 GB 543.99 1 NL-9521KJ-34
6185confirm payment Emily 2018/02/13 15:05:36.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 1 NL-9521GC-32
6218confirm payment Emily 2018/02/13 15:08:11.000APPLE iPhone 6s Plus 64 GB969,00 € 2 NL-7948BX-10
6245make delivery Michael 2018/02/13 15:14:04.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 3 NL-7905AX-38
6272 pay Emily 2018/02/13 15:20:36.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 1 NL-7821AC-3
6269 pay Charlotte2018/02/13 15:25:21.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 1 NL-7907EJ-42
6212prepare deliverySophia 2018/02/13 15:43:39.000 HUAWEI P8 Lite 234,00 € 1 NL-7905AX-38
6323 send invoiceAlexander2018/02/13 15:46:08.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 1 NL-7833HT-15
6246confirm payment Jack 2018/02/13 15:56:03.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 3 NL-7833HT-15
6347 send invoice Jack 2018/02/13 15:57:42.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 3 NL-7905AX-38
6351 place order Zoe 2018/02/13 16:17:37.000APPLE iPhone 5s 16 GB 449,00 € 3 NL-9521GC-32
6204prepare deliverySophia 2018/02/13 16:31:28.000SAMSUNG Core Prime G361 135,00 € 1 NL-7828AM-11a
6204make delivery Kaylee 2018/02/13 16:51:54.000SAMSUNG Core Prime G361 135,00 € 1 NL-7828AM-11a
6265confirm payment Lily 2018/02/13 16:55:55.000 SAMSUNG Galaxy S4 329,00 € 4 NL-9521GC-32
6250confirm payment Jack 2018/02/13 17:03:26.000 MOTOROLA Moto G 199,00 € 4 NL-7942GT-2
6328 send invoice Lily 2018/02/13 17:30:16.000APPLE iPhone 6s 64 GB 858,00 € 4 NL-9514BV-16
6352 place order Aiden 2018/02/13 17:53:22.000 APPLE iPhone 6 16 GB 639,00 € 2 NL-9514BV-16
6317 send invoice Jack 2018/02/13 18:45:30.000APPLE iPhone 6s 64 GB 858,00 € 5 NL-7907EJ-42
6353 place order Sophia 2018/02/13 20:16:20.000APPLE iPhone 5s 16 GB 449,00 € 4 NL-7751AR-19
… … …. … … … … …
event =
case +
activity +
timestamp +
…

12. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Let’s look at orders 6350, 6351, and 6352
Case ID Activity Timestamp
6350 place order2018/02/13 14:29:45.000
6351 place order2018/02/13 16:17:37.000
6352 place order2018/02/13 17:53:22.000
6352 send invoice2018/02/19 09:20:28.000
6351 send invoice2018/02/19 16:08:07.000
6350 send invoice2018/02/21 09:38:16.000
6350 pay 2018/03/02 12:39:37.000
6352 pay 2018/03/05 15:46:47.000
6351 cancel order2018/03/06 10:17:01.000
6350prepare delivery2018/03/07 13:50:35.000
6350make delivery2018/03/07 16:41:01.000
6350confirm payment2018/03/07 16:53:00.000
6352prepare delivery2018/03/07 17:05:59.000
6352confirm payment2018/03/07 17:59:55.000
6352make delivery2018/03/08 09:54:36.000

13. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Let’s look at orders 6350, 6351, and 6352
Case ID Activity Timestamp
6350 place order2018/02/13 14:29:45.000
6351 place order2018/02/13 16:17:37.000
6352 place order2018/02/13 17:53:22.000
6352 send invoice2018/02/19 09:20:28.000
6351 send invoice2018/02/19 16:08:07.000
6350 send invoice2018/02/21 09:38:16.000
6350 pay 2018/03/02 12:39:37.000
6352 pay 2018/03/05 15:46:47.000
6351 cancel order2018/03/06 10:17:01.000
6350prepare delivery2018/03/07 13:50:35.000
6350make delivery2018/03/07 16:41:01.000
6350confirm payment2018/03/07 16:53:00.000
6352prepare delivery2018/03/07 17:05:59.000
6352confirm payment2018/03/07 17:59:55.000
6352make delivery2018/03/08 09:54:36.000
place order
send invoice
pay
prepare delivery
make delivery
confirm payment
place order
send invoice
cancel order
place order
send invoice
pay
prepare delivery
confirm payment
make delivery
order 6350 order 6351 order 6352

14. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Using the whole event log
Case ID Activity Timestamp
6350 place order2018/02/13 14:29:45.000
6351 place order2018/02/13 16:17:37.000
6352 place order2018/02/13 17:53:22.000
6352 send invoice2018/02/19 09:20:28.000
6351 send invoice2018/02/19 16:08:07.000
6350 send invoice2018/02/21 09:38:16.000
6350 pay 2018/03/02 12:39:37.000
6352 pay 2018/03/05 15:46:47.000
6351 cancel order2018/03/06 10:17:01.000
6350prepare delivery2018/03/07 13:50:35.000
6350make delivery2018/03/07 16:41:01.000
6350confirm payment2018/03/07 16:53:00.000
6352prepare delivery2018/03/07 17:05:59.000
6352confirm payment2018/03/07 17:59:55.000
6352make delivery2018/03/08 09:54:36.000
place order
send invoice
pay
prepare delivery
make delivery
confirm payment
place order
send invoice
cancel order
place order
send invoice
pay
prepare delivery
confirm payment
make delivery
8016 x
1651 x
2962 x
place order
pay
send invoice
prepare delivery
make delivery
confirm payment
place order
pay
send invoice
prepare delivery
confirm payment
make delivery
30 x 7 x

15. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Using the whole event log
place order
send invoice
pay
prepare delivery
make delivery
confirm payment
place order
send invoice
cancel order
place order
send invoice
pay
prepare delivery
confirm payment
make delivery
8016 x
1651 x
2962 x
place order
pay
send invoice
prepare delivery
make delivery
confirm payment
place order
pay
send invoice
prepare delivery
confirm payment
make delivery
30 x 7 x

16. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Performance and Compliance
What happens?
Where are the bottlenecks?
Where do we deviate from the happy path?

17. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
process discovery
conformance checking
root-cause analysis
performance analysis
predictive process analytics
decision mining
organization/social network mining
automated process improvement
responsible process mining

18. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Main inhibitors
•People
−Unawareness
−Lack of training
−Avoiding transparency
•Data
−Data quality
−Data management

19. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Process mining is different
data
mining
neural
network
“dog”
genderage smokercar brandclaim
female 47 yes Volvo no
male 31 noAlfa Romeoyes
male 59 noAlfa Romeoyes
male 28 no Fiat no
male 44 no BMW no
female 27 no Fiat no
male 29 no Subaru no
… … .. … … “claim”

20. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Future
“towards better processes”

21. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
From backward looking
to forward looking

22. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Seamless integration of
process discovery and
conformance checking
(using hybrid process
models)

23. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Better support for
comparative process
mining

24. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Better analysis of
causality to suggest
improvements rather
than reinforcing
correlations

25. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Making process mining
results actionable
(e.g., the RPA connection)

26. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
Increasing attention for
responsible process
mining (ensuring
fairness and protecting
confidentiality)

27. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
The process mining discipline is
rapidly growing and maturing

28. © Wil van der Aalst (use only with permission & acknowledgements)
International Conference on Process Mining
Aachen, June 23-25, 2019
Supported by Celonis as platinum sponsor