Understanding Cause and Impact of Climate Change by Rabindra

Understanding Cause and Impact of Climate Change by Rabindra

1. Unit 2 UNDERSTANDING CAUSE AND IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE (CC)

2. Contents UNIT 2: UNDERSTANDING CAUSE AND IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE (CC) [8] 2.1 Cause of Climate Change 2.1.1 Natural Causes of CC 2.1.2 Anthropogenic Causes of CC 2.2. Climate change impacts, vulnerability and risks 2.2.1 Sectoral impacts of climate change 2.2.2 Current change vulnerabilities: status and implications 2.2.3 Climate change risks: baseline, projected 2.2.4 Assessing the impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks

3. Natural Causes of CC Climate change refers to significant and lasting changes in the Earth's climate, particularly an increase in average global temperatures. While human activities (anthropogenic factors) are widely recognized as major contributors to recent climate change natural causes have also played a crucial role in shaping the Earth's climate over geological time scales.

4. Natural Causes of CC 1. Orbital Variations (Milankovitch Cycles) The Earth's orbit around the Sun is not constant; it varies over long periods due to gravitational interactions with other planets. These variations, known as Milankovitch Cycles , influence the distribution and intensity of solar radiation received by the Earth, thereby affecting its climate. Components of Milankovitch Cycles Eccentricity : Changes in the shape of Earth's orbit from nearly circular to slightly elliptical over a cycle of approximately 100,000 years . Axial Tilt : Variations in the tilt of Earth's rotational axis between 22.1° and 24.5° over a cycle of about 41,000 years . Greater tilt leads to more extreme seasons. Precession : The wobble in Earth's rotational axis, like to a spinning top, occurring over a cycle of about 26,000 years . Precession affects the timing of seasons relative to Earth's position in its orbit.

5. Natural Causes of CC 2. Volcanic Eruptions Short-term cooling: Volcanic eruptions release ash and dust, which block sunlight and temporarily cool the Earth. This effect lasts about three months as ash particles settle. Longer-term cooling: Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) from eruptions reacts with water vapor, forming sulfate aerosols that reflect sunlight. These can stay in the atmosphere for over a year, leading to cooling. Minimal CO₂ impact: While volcanoes emit carbon dioxide (CO₂), their contribution is less than 1% of human-caused emissions. Global climate effects: Large eruptions increase atmospheric reflectivity, altering climate patterns for years.

6. Natural Causes of CC 3 . Solar Variability The Sun is the primary source of energy for Earth's climate system. Variations in solar output, such as changes in solar irradiance, can influence global temperatures. Sunspots: Dark spots on the Sun's surface associated with increased solar activity. Periods of high sunspot activity (e.g., the Medieval Warm Period) correlate with warmer climates, while periods of low activity (e.g., the Maunder Minimum) coincide with cooler climates, such as the Little Ice Age. Solar Cycles: The Sun undergoes approximately 11-year cycles of activity, which can cause slight fluctuations in Earth's climate. Even small changes in solar radiation can have significant effects on Earth's climate over long periods.

7. What are Sunspots? Dark regions on the Sun’s surface caused by magnetic activity . More sunspots → Increased solar energy output → Potential warming . Fewer sunspots → Reduced solar energy → Potential cooling .

8. Natural Causes of CC 4. Plate Tectonics The movement of Earth's tectonic plates reshapes continents and ocean basins, influencing ocean currents, atmospheric circulation, and carbon cycling. Mountain Building : Uplift of mountains (e.g., Himalayas) increases weathering rates, removing CO₂ from the atmosphere through chemical reactions. Ocean Gateways : Opening or closing of ocean passages alters ocean circulation patterns, affecting heat distribution. Continental Drift : Changes in landmass positions modify wind patterns and precipitation regimes.

9. Natural Causes of CC 5 . Internal Climate Variability Some climate changes occur without an external trigger , driven by natural interactions within the climate system . 1. El Niño–La Niña Cycle (Repeats approximately every 5 years) El Niño occurs when warm ocean water spreads across the central and eastern Pacific , disrupting normal weather patterns. This leads to warmer global temperatures , increased rainfall in some regions, and droughts in others. La Niña is the opposite phase, where stronger trade winds push warm water westward , bringing cooler global temperatures , stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic, and drier conditions in some areas. While these cycles affect global climate , their impacts are temporary , lasting only a few years.

10. Natural Causes of CC 5 . Internal Climate Variability 2. Arctic Oscillation (AO) The AO is a climate pattern linked to changes in air pressure over the Arctic, affecting weather in the Northern Hemisphere. In its positive phase , strong winds trap cold air in the Arctic, leading to warmer-than-usual winters in North America and Europe , while the Arctic remains colder. In its negative phase , weaker winds allow Arctic air to move south, resulting in colder winters in North America and Europe , while the Arctic experiences warmer temperatures . Unlike El Niño and La Niña, the Arctic Oscillation does not significantly influence global temperatures but greatly impacts regional weather patterns .

11. Natural Causes of CC 6. Asteroid Impacts Large asteroid or comet impacts can cause abrupt climate changes by releasing massive amounts of dust and aerosols into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight and leading to global cooling. Example: The  Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction event  66 million years ago, caused by an asteroid impact, led to a "nuclear winter" effect and the extinction of the dinosaurs. While rare, such events can have catastrophic and long-lasting effects on climate.

12. 2.1.2 Anthropogenic Causes of CC 1. Burning of Fossil Fuels The combustion of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—is the largest source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These fuels are burned to generate energy for electricity, transportation, industry, and heating. When fossil fuels are burned, they release carbon dioxide (CO₂), a major greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. CO₂ traps heat, contributing to the warming of the planet. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels account for approximately 65% of total global GHG emissions . The United States and China are the world’s largest emitters of CO₂, largely due to their reliance on coal-fired power plants and industrial activities. For instance, in 2021, China emitted about 11.47 billion metric tons of CO₂ , while the U.S. emitted around 4.87 billion metric tons .

13. 2.1.2 Anthropogenic Causes of CC 2 . Deforestation Forests act as carbon sinks, absorbing CO₂ from the atmosphere. However, widespread deforestation for agriculture, logging, and urban development reduces this capacity and releases stored carbon back into the atmosphere. Trees store carbon in their biomass. When forests are cleared or burned, the carbon is released as CO₂. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that deforestation contributes to about 10% of global GHG emissions . In the Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the "lungs of the Earth," deforestation rates in 2023, with an estimated 11,568 square kilometers of forest lost.

14. 2.1.2 Anthropogenic Causes of CC 2 . Agriculture and Livestock Farming Agricultural practices, particularly livestock farming, are significant contributors to methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions—two potent greenhouse gases. Methane is produced during the digestion process of ruminant animals like cows (enteric fermentation) and from rice paddies. Nitrous oxide is released from the use of synthetic fertilizers and manure management. Methane has a global warming potential (GWP) 28 times greater than CO₂ over a 100-year period, while nitrous oxide has a GWP 265 times greater . The livestock sector alone is responsible for about 14.5% of global GHG emissions , according to the FAO. Countries with large cattle populations, such as Brazil and India, contribute significantly to these emissions.

15. 2.1.2 Anthropogenic Causes of CC 2 . Industrial Processes Certain industrial activities release GHGs directly into the atmosphere. These include cement production, chemical manufacturing, and metal processing. Cement production involves the calcination of limestone, which releases CO₂. Chemical industries emit fluorinated gases (F-gases), which are extremely potent greenhouse gases. Industrial processes account for about 20% of global GHG emissions . The production of one ton of cement emits approximately 0.9 tons of CO₂ . Globally, cement production contributes to about 8% of CO₂ emissions . In 2023, China’s cement industry emitted approximately 1.5 billion metric tons of CO₂ , equivalent to the annual emissions of Japan.

16. 2.1.2 Anthropogenic Causes of CC 3. Transportation The transportation sector is a major source of CO₂ emissions, primarily from the burning of gasoline and diesel in cars, trucks, ships, and airplanes. Internal combustion engines release CO₂ as a byproduct of fuel combustion. Transportation accounts for about 24% of global CO₂ emissions , with road vehicles being the largest contributor. In 2023, global air travel returned to 95% of pre-pandemic levels , with flights emitting an estimated 900 million metric tons of CO₂ annually. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) projects that aviation emissions could triple by 2050 if no mitigation measures are adopted.

17. 2.1.2 Anthropogenic Causes of CC 4. Waste Management Improper waste disposal, particularly in landfills, leads to the production of methane as organic waste decomposes anaerobically (without oxygen). Landfills are the third-largest source of methane emissions globally. Waste management contributes to about 3% of global GHG emissions . Example : In developing countries, open dumping and uncontrolled landfills intensify methane emissions. For instance, India generates over 62 million tons of municipal solid waste annually , much of which ends up in poorly managed landfills.

18. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security Climate-related extreme events have severely affected Nepal's agricultural sector through multiple pathways: Drought represents the most significant threat, accounting for 38.9% of all crop losses between 1971-2007. The country experienced 16 major drought events from 1972-2016, with annual crop losses ranging from 56,000 to 917,260 metric tons. The 2006 drought alone resulted in an 11% decline in rice yield and 7% reduction in wheat yield. Flooding has caused 23.2% of crop losses, with the 2017 floods being particularly devastating - inundating 80% of the Tarai region and affecting 35 districts. The agricultural sector, including livestock and irrigation infrastructure, 58% of total flood-related damages.

19. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security Future projections indicate: Rice yield will decline of 6.77% by 2050 and 12.90% by 2080 Wheat yield showing mixed trends: 5.66% increase by 2050 but 9.77% decline by 2080 Regional variations in crop impacts across Tarai, Hills, and Mountain regions

20. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Livestock and Animal Husbandry Effects Rising temperatures have triggered multiple challenges: Direct Physical Impacts: Reduced weight gain and reproduction Decreased feed intake and conversion efficiency Increased heat stress and morbidity Disease-Related Issues: Vector-borne diseases (ticks and flies) Parasitic diseases (liver fluke and nematodes) New skin conditions Increased fatigue, foot and mouth diseases Productivity Challenges: Disrupted herd movement timing Reduced fodder and forage productivity Declining milk production Shortened lactation periods

21. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Agrobiodiversity Changes Climate change has shown both negative and positive impacts: Negative: Complete loss of crops, varieties, or genes in affected areas Crop failure due to prolonged droughts Flood damage to entire agricultural lands Positive: Introduction of new crops at higher altitudes Successful cultivation of tropical fruits (mango, litchi) in previously unsuitable areas

22. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impacts on Forests, Biodiversity, and Watershed Management Impacts on Forest Resources and Communities Forest fires have reached unprecedented levels, with recording primarily affecting Tarai and Siwaliks lowland forests, driven by increased droughts and heatwaves. Over 65% of Nepal's population relies on forests for livelihood, with marginalized communities bearing the heaviest burden - women in Western Nepal now work up to 18 hours daily collecting diminishing forest resources. The changing climate has severely impacted forest-dependent populations, particularly affecting women, Indigenous Peoples, and Dalits who rely on forest resources for survival and income.

23. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impacts on Forests, Biodiversity, and Watershed Management Wildlife Population and Habitat Changes Flash floods in Chitawan National Park have led to increased animal casualties, especially affecting rhinoceros calves in riverine forests along the Narayani and Rapti rivers. Habitat loss projections show alarming trends: Snow leopard habitat faces 30% reduction in the Himalayas Rhinoceros habitat projected to decrease by 51.25% by 2050 and 56.54% by 2070 Snow leopard and blue sheep habitat may decrease by 14.57% by 2030 and 21.57% by 2050 Water stress from prolonged droughts has led to declining populations of deer, porcupines, pangolins, and bird species in mid-hills regions.

24. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impacts on Forests, Biodiversity, and Watershed Management Vegetation Migration and Temperature Impact Conifer species showing significant upward migration: Abies spectabilis moving 2.61m annually in Manaslu area Betula utilis shifting 0.42m annually in Sagarmatha National Park Pinus wallichiana demonstrating similar patterns across Nepal Protected Areas experiencing concerning temperature trends: Annual maximum temperature rising between 0.019°C to 0.095°C (1971-2014) High-altitude parks showing greater warming impacts Temperature changes threatening endangered species including Red Panda and Musk Deer

25. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impacts on Forests, Biodiversity, and Watershed Management Invasive Species Proliferation Flora invasion: 24 invasive plant species now present across 70 districts Mikania micrantha severely impacting rhino habitats Expansion from Tarai reaching high mountain areas Fauna invasion includes: 21 invasive insect species 16 fish species 25 livestock breeds Multiple bird and mammal species

26. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impacts on Forests, Biodiversity, and Watershed Management Phenological Disruptions Timing changes in natural cycles: Rhododendron arboreum flowering 15-30 days earlier than normal Similar early flowering in Myrica esculenta and Alnus nepalensis Disruption affecting ecosystem synchronization Decreasing availability of crucial forest resources: Medicinal plants ( Dactylorhiza hatageria , Rauvolfia serpentina ) Food sources ( Phyllanthus emblica , Aegle marmelos ) Economic resources ( Sapnidus mukurosii , Zanthoxylum armatum )

27. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impacts on Forests, Biodiversity, and Watershed Management Watershed and Wetland Effects Watershed Degradation Climate variability and extreme precipitation events are major challenges for watershed conservation in Nepal. Heavy summer rainfall triggers floods, landslides, soil erosion, and debris flow, accelerating watershed degradation. These events reduce the soil's water-holding capacity and contribute to mass movements, further degrading watershed resources. Prolonged drought and irregular water availability during winter impair the hydrological cycle and nutrient supply, leading to increased soil loss and wind erosion. This accelerates overall watershed degradation, affecting agricultural productivity and water security Irregular water flow and climate-induced stressors reduce the overall quality of watersheds by altering streamflow patterns, sediment transport, and ecosystem stability. This not only depletes watershed resources but also impacts downstream water users, including agriculture, drinking water supply, and hydropower generation.

28. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impacts on Forests, Biodiversity, and Watershed Management Watershed and Wetland Effects Wetland Degradation Climate change affects wetlands by altering glacier melt and river flow, reducing wetland size. Invasive species like water hyacinth and Nile tilapia disrupt native ecosystems, degrading wetland habitats. Habitat loss threatens species like crocodiles and migratory birds dependent on wetlands.

29. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Energy Impact on Water Resources Climate change alters Nepal’s hydrology , affecting water availability, runoff timing, and increasing water-related disasters like floods and droughts. Monsoon-dominated weather causes frequent floods, flash floods, and landslides , with rising temperatures accelerating glacier melt. Glacier melt initially increases runoff , but long-term glacier storage loss will reduce water availability. Seasonal water variability will lead to increased monsoon flow and reduced non-monsoon flow, creating water supply challenges. Groundwater flow changes affect local water sources , impacting drinking water, micro-hydropower, and irrigation. Large river flow changes impact hydropower, irrigation, and water supply projects , creating regional imbalances.

30. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Energy Impact on Energy Hydropower is highly vulnerable to climate variability , as changing runoff patterns affect electricity generation. Seasonal shifts in water availability reduce power output in dry seasons and cause damage from high peak flows during floods. Extreme precipitation and floods damage dams, turbines, and power plants , leading to bypass releases and economic losses. Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) have caused major damage , including destruction of hydro plants, infrastructure, and human casualties. Landslides and floods disrupt electricity grids , damaging transmission lines and powerhouses, especially in flood-prone Terai and landslide-prone mountain areas.

31. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Health and WASH Climate Change and Health Risks Rising temperatures, changing precipitation, and extreme weather events are increasing health risks. Major impacts on Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs) , Water-Borne Diseases (WBDs) , respiratory diseases , food-borne diseases , malnutrition , and mental health issues .

32. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Health and WASH Expansion of Vector-Borne and Water-Borne Diseases The spread of malaria, dengue, JE, and LF has extended from the Tarai to hilly and mountainous regions , with malaria vectors detected as high as 1820m above sea level . A 1°C increase in temperature has been linked to a 27% increase in malaria cases , and higher temperatures and rainfall are creating favorable conditions for mosquitoes and other disease vectors. Water-borne diseases like diarrhea and cholera surge after heavy rainfall and floods , causing outbreaks in vulnerable communities. Studies show that a 1°C rise in ambient temperature leads to a 4.39% increase in diarrheal diseases . Emerging threats such as Chikungunya, West Nile virus, and scrub typhus pose additional health risks as climate conditions become more suitable for their transmission.

33. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Health and WASH Rising Cardiovascular and Respiratory Diseases Due to Temperature Extremes Hot and cold temperature fluctuations significantly increase the risk of heart and respiratory diseases, with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity linked to extreme weather events. Cold waves in hilly regions are associated with a 4.11% rise in respiratory disease cases, while in the Tarai, a 1°C increase in mean temperature results in a 0.57% increase in respiratory illnesses. Respiratory diseases are worsened by extreme weather events, droughts, and air pollution, leading to an increase in co-morbidity rates (17% to 35%) between cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses.

34. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Health and WASH Climate Change Impact on Malnutrition and Food Security Climate change is disrupting agriculture, food production, and nutrition security, contributing to widespread malnutrition, particularly among infants, adolescent girls, and pregnant/lactating women. Unpredictable rainfall patterns, droughts, and extreme temperatures have led to crop failures, food shortages, and declining food quality, intensifying undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. Rising temperatures also affect food safety by increasing bacterial contamination and food-borne illnesses, further worsening public health outcomes.

35. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Health and WASH Climate Change Impact on Malnutrition and Food Security Climate change is disrupting agriculture, food production, and nutrition security, contributing to widespread malnutrition, particularly among infants, adolescent girls, and pregnant/lactating women. Unpredictable rainfall patterns, droughts, and extreme temperatures have led to crop failures, food shortages, and declining food quality, intensifying undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. Rising temperatures also affect food safety by increasing bacterial contamination and food-borne illnesses, further worsening public health outcomes.

36. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Health and WASH Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Challenges Water availability and quality are deteriorating, with 5% of water supply systems drying up and a 30% decline in spring discharge over the past 30 years, reducing access to safe drinking water. Heavy rainfall and floods contaminate water sources, leading to increased water-borne diseases such as diarrhea, cholera, and typhoid. Groundwater depletion and pollution are rising, particularly in urban areas and the Tarai region, where arsenic contamination poses serious health risks. Health infrastructures, sanitation systems, and drinking water facilities are frequently damaged by extreme weather events.

37. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Rural and Urban Settlements Effects on Settlements Climate change affects housing, infrastructure, and services (e.g., roads, water, sanitation, healthcare, education) in both rural and urban areas. Vulnerable groups like children, women , and the elderly are most at risk, with impacts including loss of life, property , and increased poverty . In Kathmandu Valley , water stress and scarcity are worsening due to urbanization , leading to greater challenges in meeting water demands.

38. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change Impact on Rural and Urban Settlements Impact on Buildings and Infrastructure Temporary housing and settlements in the Kathmandu Valley and Tarai are particularly vulnerable to flooding, monsoon rains, and heat, contributing to significant economic losses. For example, in Kathmandu, 48% of squatter houses are temporary structures, and floods have affected settlements in Bhaktapur and Balkhu . Urban and rural infrastructure like water pipes, bridges, and hydropower are heavily impacted by climate events. Drainage congestion and drying water sources exacerbate flooding, especially in areas like Nepalgunj and Tarai.

39. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change 6. Impact on Industry, Transport, and Physical Infrastructure Climate extremes like floods, landslides, glacial floods, and windstorms cause severe damage to roads, bridges, and industrial buildings. 7. Impact on Tourism, Natural, and Cultural Heritage Tourism, especially nature-based activities like trekking and mountaineering, is highly sensitive to weather conditions. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves or cold waves, alongside disasters, impact tourist demand and comfort, affecting revenues and employment. Tourism-dependent natural sites like the Himalayas face threats from GLOFs, avalanches, and glacier melt. Trekking and mountaineering activities are impacted by shifting monsoon patterns. The aesthetic value of mountains and forests is diminishing as vegetation shifts, with visible changes like snow-covered peaks turning into rocky surfaces. Increased forest fires also threaten wildlife and ecosystems.

40. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change 7. Impact on Tourism, Natural, and Cultural Heritage Cultural sites, including archaeological and historic monuments, are damaged by landslides and flooding. Changes in traditional construction methods, like in Mustang, are linked to altered weather patterns, damaging mud and stone houses. Ecological shifts in wetlands, lakes, and rivers also change their significance as cultural and religious tourism sites, potentially reducing their attractiveness to visitors. Extreme weather can result in trip cancellations, disrupt tourism supply chains, and put mountain tourism workers in harm’s way. Water scarcity in high-demand tourism regions, like Everest, exacerbates sanitation and health issues for both tourists and local businesses, further increasing the workload on women who manage essential services like homestays and restaurants.

41. Sectoral Impact of Climate Change 8. Impacts on GESI & Livelihoods Vulnerable groups (e.g., women, children, indigenous communities) are disproportionately affected by climate change , facing higher mortality and morbidity, particularly from disasters like floods and heatwaves. Migration is often a coping strategy, with men leaving for work, leaving women to take on increased household and farming responsibilities , making them more vulnerable to disasters . Women in female-headed households are more likely to face livelihood losses , with increased workloads from tasks like gathering firewood and water , which can result in school dropouts for girls. Climate change negatively impacts agriculture-based livelihoods , threatening food security and increasing the vulnerability of small-scale farmers and herders .

42. Vulnerability (IPCC Definition) : "The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt." Sensitivity : The degree to which a system is affected, either adversely or beneficially, by climate-related stimuli. Adaptive Capacity : The ability of systems, institutions, humans, and other organisms to adjust to potential damage, take advantage of opportunities, or respond to consequences. Exposure : The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places that could be adversely affected. Nepal's vulnerability to climate change is evident in its mountainous regions, where communities are highly sensitive to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). For instance, the Imja Glacial Lake in the Everest region poses a significant threat due to its increasing size and instability. Communities downstream are exposed to potential flooding, and their adaptive capacity is limited due to poverty, lack of infrastructure, and inadequate early warning systems.

43. Risk (IPCC Definition) : "The potential for adverse consequences resulting from the interaction between climate-related hazards (including extreme weather events) and the exposure and vulnerability of affected human and ecological systems." Risk is often expressed as a function of three components: Hazard : The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and environmental resources. Exposure : The presence of people, livelihoods, environmental services, and resources in hazard-prone areas. Vulnerability : The susceptibility of these elements to harm and their ability to cope and adapt. In Nepal, the risk of landslides is heightened during the monsoon season due to heavy rainfall, deforestation, and steep terrain. For example, in 2020, landslides triggered by torrential rains in the Melamchi Valley killed dozens of people and displaced thousands. The risk was exacerbated by the exposure of settlements in landslide-prone areas and the vulnerability of communities due to poor housing infrastructure and limited disaster preparedness.

44. Resilience : Resilience refers to the ability of social, economic, and environmental systems to withstand shocks and stresses caused by climate change and to recover quickly from them. Community-based adaptation initiatives, such as the promotion of climate-resilient agriculture practices in the Terai region, aim to enhance resilience by diversifying crops and improving water management systems. Adaptation : Adaptation involves adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. The construction of flood embankments along the Koshi River is an adaptation measure to reduce the impact of seasonal flooding on agricultural lands and settlements.

45. Mitigation : Mitigation refers to efforts to reduce or limit greenhouse gas emissions or enhance carbon sinks to address the root causes of climate change. Nepal’s commitment to increasing forest cover through community forestry programs serves as a mitigation strategy by sequestering carbon dioxide and reducing emissions from deforestation. Hazard : A hazard is a potentially damaging physical event, phenomenon, or human activity that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Earthquakes are a geophysical hazard that can be compounded by climate-induced stressors, such as soil erosion weakening building foundations.

46. Exposure : Exposure refers to the extent to which a system, population, or asset is situated in a location that could be adversely affected by climate-related events.

47. Climate Change Vulnerability in Nepal Geographical Variations: Mountainous Regions: High to very high vulnerability is observed across all mountainous regions. Karnali and Sudurpaschim Provinces' mid-hills and mountain districts are particularly vulnerable. Bagmati Province: Kathmandu district has the lowest vulnerability, with Lalitpur, Bhaktapur, and Chitawan also classified as low vulnerability. Other Districts: Sunsari , Rupandehi , Bara, Chitawan , and Jhapa districts are less vulnerable to climate change

48. Climate Change Vulnerability in Nepal Sectoral Vulnerability: Vulnerability varies across sectors, with greater vulnerability in the hills and mountain districts compared to the Tarai region. Karnali and Sudurpaschim Provinces exhibit high vulnerability in agriculture, forestry, health, water resources and energy, transportation, tourism, and GESI (Gender Equality and Social Inclusion). Madhesh Province have health vulnerability

49. Climate Change Vulnerability in Nepal 37 municipalities are very highly vulnerable, 52 are high, 42 are moderate, 58 are low, and 104 are very low. Pokhara, Kathmandu, Biratnagar, Lalitpur, Dhangadi , and Dharan have very high adaptive capacity and low vulnerability due to a high human development index, livelihood assets, access to urban services, resilient infrastructure, and institutional capacity Vulnerability in Rural Municipality is concentrated in Madhesh Province, Bagmati Province, Lumbini Province, Karnali Province, and Sudurpaschim Province. A few municipalities in the Gandaki Province are also vulnerable. Higher sensitivity of population and resources, along with a lower capacity to respond to climate change effects, influences the Provinces’ vulnerability

50. Factors Contributing to Vulnerability Socioeconomic Factors: These include demographic changes, poverty, labor migration. Sensitivity: Higher sensitivity of population and resources influences vulnerability, especially when coupled with a lower capacity to respond to climate change effects. Adaptive Capacity: Lower adaptive capacity, limited access to services, technologies, and infrastructure, intensifies vulnerability

51. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

52. Baseline risk of climate change impact Baseline risk is calculated considering current hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. High baseline risk: Dhading, Makawanpur , Sindhupalchok , Gorkha, Kailali, Sindhuli , Morang and Jhapa districts. Moderate baseline risk: Dolakha , Nuwakot , Sankhuwasabha , Tanahu , Kavrepalanchok , Udayapur , Pyuthan, Siraha , Chitawan , Dang, Kaski, Mahottari and Saptari districts

53. Projected risk of climate change impact Projected Risks The hazards are likely to increase in all scenarios, consequently increasing overall risk. Extreme wet days are projected to increase, leading to an increase in floods, landslides, and related hazards, which will increase the risk.

54. Projected risk of climate change impact Medium-Term (2030) Projections Under RCP 4.5, 15 districts are classified as very high risk, while 17 are classified as high risk. Under RCP 8.5, 19 districts are classified as very high risk, while 17 are classified as high risk. Most districts in Koshi Province, Madhesh Province, Bagmati Province, Gandaki Province, and Lumbini Province are in the high-risk category under both RCP scenarios. Karnali and Sudurpaschim Provinces are at relatively low risk under both scenarios. Increased climate extreme events: Most of the districts of Koshi Province, Madhesh Province, Bagmati Province, and Gandaki Province are most likely to experience high-very high incidences of climate extreme events in 2030. All the Tarai districts and districts of Province two will observe increased extreme events in the future. Likewise, the eastern districts of Koshi Province will experience a very high incidence of extreme events.

55. Projected risk of climate change impact Long-Term (2050) Projections Under RCP 4.5, 19 districts are classified as very high risk, while 21 districts are classified as high risk. Under RCP 8.5, 33 districts are classified as very high risk, and 16 districts are classified as high risk. 12 districts were added to the high-risk category in RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5. Compared to the medium term (2030), the climate risk will increase in the long term (2050) in Lumbini Province, Karnali Province, and Sudurpaschim Province. Increased climate extreme events: In 2050, climate extreme events will increase immensely and expand to new areas such as Karnali Province and Sudurpaschim Province.

56. Projected risk of climate change impact Specific Climate-Induced Disasters Heatwaves: The probability of heatwaves is projected to increase significantly, potentially as high as 27 percent by the 2090s under the highest emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). Cold waves: The probability of cold waves is projected to decrease significantly, to less than one percent annually over the same period. Floods: Flood inundation and agricultural damage areas may increase in the future. Drought: An increase in a median annual drought probability of at least 10 percent is projected by 2080-2099 under all emission pathways.

57. Sector-Specific Risks Forestry, Biodiversity, and Watershed: Under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 for 2030 and 2050, there will be a unidirectional shift of climate risk towards the higher level in the future in all scales. High and middle mountain regions and districts of these regions are expected to experience a very high risk of climate change impact. Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH): In both 2030 and 2050, under RCP 4.5, most of the Terai districts, the majority of the Siwalik, and some hilly districts will be at risk from the impact of climate change. Transport, Industry, and Physical Infrastructure: In the medium-term period, under RCP 4.5, the risk of climate change impact will be high to very high mostly in Bagmati Province (except Bhaktapur, Rasuwa , and Ramechhap ). Tourism, Natural and Cultural Heritage: In the case of cultural heritage, the risk of climate change impact will be very high to high in Bagmati Province and Gandaki Province in the medium term (2030) RCP scenarios. Water Resources and Energy: Most of the districts in Bagmati Province and Gandaki Province will have a very high risk of climate change impact in 2030 under both scenarios

58. Assessing CC Impacts, Vulnerability and Risks Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework

59. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework Scoping Vulnerability and Risk: This initial step involves understanding the context of vulnerability and risk in different municipalities, sectors, Provinces, and physiographic regions. This includes: Analyzing current climate conditions and scenarios, including slow-onset and extreme events. Assessing potential impacts of climate extremes and climate change on vulnerable sectors. Analyzing underlying biophysical, technical, and socio-economic factors that influence climate risks.

60. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework VRA Framework Refinement: This step involves revisiting and refining the VRA framework based on reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Government of Nepal ( GoN ) published the Vulnerability and Risk Assessment framework and indicators in 2017, specifically designed for the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) formulation process 3. Identifying Key Indicators This step focuses on listing the most relevant indicators for thematic and cross-cutting areas to measure and assess trends in climatic hazards, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. SMART indicators are identified based on literature review, and review of previously published VRA framework

61. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework 4. Exploring Data Sources This step involves identifying and examining various data sources, their nature, and characteristics. Data sources include the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), the Department of Survey (DoS), related Ministries, development organizations, and international organizations. Both quantitative and qualitative datasets are used, with corresponding geospatial information

62. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework 5. Data Collection, Tabulation, Filtering, and Normalization In this step, secondary data (spatial or non-spatial) is collected, tabulated, filtered, and normalized. Data is obtained from published or unpublished sources, primarily from government sources. Interviews, meetings, surveys, and consultations with experts and stakeholders are also used for data collection. A min-max method is adopted to normalize the quantitative dataset.

63. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework 6. Weightage and Composite Value This step involves assigning weightage to each normalized data using a pair-wise comparison and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) model to prioritize related decision indicators. Experts provide numerical values based on their relative importance using Saaty’s 9-point scale. Composite values are then calculated based on the computed weightage.

64. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework 7. Analysis of Data: In this step, the data is analyzed, and the findings are presented in various formats, including trends, scenarios, patterns, and risks. Socioeconomic, demographic, and sector-specific data are analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical analysis and scenario-based economic modeling. Results are produced at municipal, sectoral, regional, physiographic area, and district levels. Key "climate-vulnerable hotspots" are identified based on the data and maps prepared.

65. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework 8. Identifying Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Risk This step focuses on analyzing the vulnerability of identified sub-sectors within a sector and the aggregate of these sub-sectors. Vulnerability is analyzed with an aggregated value of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Climate change vulnerabilities and risks are ranked into five categories (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high).

66. Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA) Framework 9. Identifying Adaptation Options This final step involves identifying appropriate adaptation options based on the vulnerabilities and risks identified. Adaptation options are selected based on criteria aligned with national goals and targets for sustainable development, as well as national policy, sectoral policy, and national development goals related to climate change. Consultations with relevant experts and stakeholders are conducted to map effective adaptation strategies.