2 Climate change on agriculture for training of trainers

This is a TOT presentation on Agriculture and Climate Change
made for the project - Building Resilience and Strengthening Community Disaster Preparedness in Sri Lanka

1. Resource Person – Dr. P.B. Dharmasena
Building Resilience and Strengthening Community
Disaster Preparedness in Sri Lanka
TRAINING OF TRAINERS
PROGRAMME - 2
Agriculture and Climate Change

2. Agriculture and Climate Change
Content
Climate Variability
Climate Change
What will be our fate?
Climate change due to
greenhouse gas emission

3. What is Climate Variability?

Climate Variability is the
differences we observe in
the climate from year to
year
This can be due to impacts
on climate from changes
taking place in ocean
conditions far away such
as el Nino
Climate variability is
natural and it occurs on
systematic base

4. Climate Change occurs
naturally or due to human
activities
What is Climate Change?
Climate Change is the average difference of
climate during a certain period of time (10-100
years)

5. Normal Distribution Simply

6. Normal Distribution: Different
means, Same Standard Deviation
Normal Distribution: Same means,
Different Standard Deviation

7. Observed Differences in Climate

8. Change of climate in the world

9. Ocean water level rises:
Ocean water expansion and Glacier melting
Global sea level
from 1933 has
gone up by 37
mm.
•60% due to
expansion
•40 % due to
glacier melting

10. Climate Change in Sri Lanka
•Rainy days decreased
(except Nuwara Eliya)
•Total rainfall has not
changed in many areas
•Annual rainfall variability
has increased
•Annual mean of
atmospheric temperature
has increased
•Extreme events (drought,
flood) would become
abundant

11. Annual rainfall variability in Badulla
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
RF anomaly in mm
(from 1961-1990) Annual rainfall variability in Ratnapure
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
year
RF anomaly in mm (from
1961-1990)

12. Fig. 1 September - December Rainfall (Mahailluppallama)
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
1 90 5 1 91 0 1 91 5 1 92 0 1 92 5 1 93 0 1 93 5 1 94 0 1 94 5 1 95 0 1 95 5 1 96 0 1 96 5 1 97 0 1 97 5 1 98 0 1 98 5 1 99 0 1 99 5 2 00 0
Year
Rainfall (mm)
High
Moderate
Low සැපතැම්බර - දෙසැම්බර වර්ෂාපතනය _ මහඉළුප්පල්ලම September – December Rainfall at Mahailluppallama

13. 1900 - 1929 1970 - 1994

14. 550
600
650
700
750
800
850
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 The trend of decreasing Maha rains - Mahailluppallama
75
% probability of rainfall (mm)

Year

15. Some human-induced environmental changes relevant to climate
•Changes in land use (e.g. farming, building cities)
•Storage and use of water (dams, reservoirs, irrigation)
•Combustion of fossil fuels
Generation of heat
Generation of particulate pollution (e.g., soot, smoke)
Generation of gaseous pollution  particulates (e.g., sulfur
dioxide, nitrogen dioxide; get oxidized to form sulfate, nitrate)
Generates carbon dioxide
•Generation of other greenhouse gases
Methane, Nitrous oxide, Chlorofluorocarbons, Ozone
(especially via biomass burning, landfills, rice paddies agriculture,
animal husbandry, fossil fuel use, leaky fuel lines, and industry)
Changes the composition of the atmosphere
Most important are the gases with long lifetimes
Like CO
2 > 100 years

16. Rising greenhouse gases are causing
climate change and arid areas are
becoming drier while wet areas are
becoming wetter.

Water management:-
dealing with how to save in times of
excess for times of drought –
will be a major challenge in the future.

17. Food production should
be doubled to feed
additional 3 billion
people in next 30 years
According to Climate Change
forecasting agricultural
productivity will be reduced in
tropical and sub-tropical regions

18. One third of the global
population is still using fuel
woods
The fuel wood demand
will be doubled during
next 50 years.
Although climate change
forecast declares that forest
productivity will increase, wild
fire and pest losses can be high
so that forest management will
become a difficult task

19. Water Services
One third of the global
population faces water
scarcity
During next 30 years the
population affected by water
shortage will be doubled in the
world
According to
climate change
forecasting, water
will be reduced
gradually in arid
and semi-arid
regions

20. Biodiversity loss will be
intensified by the climate
change
It has been estimated that 10-
15% of the global species will
disappear during next 30 years
Whole environmental
products and services
exist on biodiversity

21. Challenge: What is the possible sustainable management in the
continuously changing earth ?

22. Food and Fiber Production
Provision of Clean and Sufficient Water
Maintenance of Biodiversity
Maintenance of Human Health
Storage and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen,
Phosphorus
Agricultural
Lands
Coastal
Zones
Forest
Lands
Freshwater
Systems
Arid Lands
Grasslands
Climate change will affect the ability of ecological systems
to provide essential ecological goods and services

23. What is our fate?

24. OUR FATE ????
•Half of 22 millions of Sri
Lankan population live in
Western, Southern and South
western coastal regions so
that they are vulnerable to
future sea level rise.
•Biodiversity is threatened by
climate change especially sea
ecological systems and
coastal coral reefs are
included
•Agricultural productivity is
affected by natural disasters
such as drought and floods,
while epidemics will spread
lowering the living
condition.
Rise of sea water level

25. Climate Changes
•Dry areas will become more dryer
•Dry frequency will increase
Delay of South west monsoon and
shorten the period
•Dry period will be intensified
Even in wet season long dry periods
will occur and the dry period will be
increased within the year
•Evapo-transpiration will increase
•High water losses from open water
bodies
•Dry situation will be aggravated
•Minor tanks go dry fast and
because of the shallowness of
water bodies it will go dry faster
Impacts of temperature rise

26. Impacts of Changing Rainfall Regime…
High variability in
seasonal rainfall
–high variability
of monsoons
–strong, persistent
and frequent El
Nino events
–Intense rains
strong tendency
for above normal
rainfall in SIM
(Oct-Nov) in El
Nino years


- Increased frequency of
floods and droughts affect
– agriculture
– water resources
– infrastructure

27. • Problem of soil erosion
– steep slopes are highly vulnerable
– siltation of reservoirs
Polgolla - 44% silted by 1988 (12 years after its
commissioning) - now 2.8% per year
Rantambe - 4.3 % per year (by now 54%) – Uma Oya
Victoria - 0.0 8% per year
Minor tanks - 2.4% per year
- land degradation –marginal lands
Soil productivity reduces – Mid country tea lands
Average soil erosion in Upper Mahaweli - 115 mt/ha/yr
(soil formation 1cm  100 - 400 years)
Impacts Changing Rainfall Regime…

28. Changing Rainfall Regime…
•High intense rains
–if daily RF exceeds
200 mm/day
•high probability
for land slides in
prone areas
–NBRO estimates
•12,500 ha are
vulnerable to land
slides

29. Climate Change due to Greenhouse Gas Emission
Carbon Dioxide (CO
2 ) -
Burning fossil fuel, Industrial
activities, forest fire
Methane (CH
4) - Agricultural
activities, waste management,
energy use, biomass burning,
from cattle
Nitrous Oxide (N
2O) -
Agricultural activities,
Burning fossil fuel
Fluorinated gases (F-gases) -
Industrial activities, various
consumer products

30. Climate Change due to Greenhouse gas emission
Agriculture including livestock production contributes to
greenhouse gas emission

31. Enteric
fermentation
(26.6%)
Manure
Management
(3.9 %)
Cultivation of
Organic soils
(16.1 %)
Rice
Cultivation
(52.4 %)
Burning of Crop
Residues(1.0 %)
GHG emission from Agriculture in Sri Lanka (2015)
25 %