Analisis de Riesgo en Tuberias_01-10.pdf

Análisis de Riesgo en Tuberías de Transporte de Hidrocarburos
Conceptos y Definiciones
parte 1 de 5

1. ,RISKMANAGEMENT
RISKANALYSIS&SETTINGINSPECTION&
MAINTENANCE PRIORITIES
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAleLtd

2. RISKMANAGEMENT -OVERVIEW
,".,
RISKMANAGEMENT -Whatisit?
RISKMANAGEMENT -Whatdoesitdo?
RISKMANAGEMENT -Howdo1doit?
RISKMANAGEMENT -Howcan1introduceitintomycompany?
copyrightANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES ADivisionofSAleLtd

3. ,THEMOVETOWARDS RISKMANAGEMENT
USAOfficeofPipelineSafetyhasariskdemonstrationprogramme,and
seeriskmanagementasapotentialmethodofproducingequalorgreater
levelsofsafetyinamorecosteffectivemannerthatthecurrentregulatory
.
regnne
UK-PipelinesSafetyRegulations.Goal-setting,notprescriptive
Startingpointfora'good'pipelinedesignandoperationisarecognised
designcode,andgood,provenoperationalpractices.
Butoperatorsarenotlimitedtothese.
TheRegulationsrequirea'majoraccidentpreventiondocument,including
safetymanagementsystem.
Canadahasnon-mandatory'GuidelinesforRiSkAnalysisofPipelines
initspipelinecodeo
TheEuropeanCommissionisreviewing'rnajoraccident'pipelines,and
arelikelytorequireoperatorstohavea'majoraccidentpreventionpolicy
andapipelinemanagementsystemthatensuresthepolicyisapplied.
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright
ADivisionofSAle Ltd

4. ·RISKMANAGEMENT (definitionfromOPS,USA)
Safetyis'theprotectiono/t~epublic,theenvironmentandproperty'.
'Risk'is'anythreattoachievingthosegoals'.
Riskmanagementis'acomprehensive:management decisionsupportprocess,
implementedasaprogram,integratedthroughdefinedrolesandresponsibilities
intotheday-to-dayoperations,maintenance,engineeringmanagement,
andregulatorydecisions01theoperator'.
Itencompassesbothriskanalysisandcontrol.Itcanimprovesafetyby:
Analysingtheprecursoreventsandcausesofpotentialpipelineincidents
Examiningboththelikelihoodandseverityofpotentialpipelineincidents
Providecomprehensive&integratedmeansforexamining&comparingall
risks,andpreventionandmitigationmeasures
Provideastructured,easilycommunicatedmeansofidentifying&prioritising
pipelinerisksandriskreductionmeasures
Establishing&.trackingperformancemeasurestoensuresafetyimprovement
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAleLId

5. ·'0......""...
.RISK-Whatisit?
Riskiscalculatedbycombiningthelikelihoodofahazardouseven,withits
consequences:
Risk=F(Probability,Consequence)
Failureprobabilityandconsequencesvarywiththepipelinetype,product,environment
etc..
Failureprobabilitieswillbeaprojectionforwardofallthelikelyfailuremodes
inthepipeline.
Consequenceanalysiswilldependon-Releaseratethro'orifices,toxicityof
product,generationanddispersionofvapourcloudsandflamejets,thermal
radiationhazards,vapourcloudexplosions,etc..
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAleUd

6. RISKMANAGEMENT -THEINGREDIENTS....
RISKMANAGEMENT
(,._f
t
I I I 1
RISK
~
RISK
~
EMERGENCY ..EMERGENCY
ASSESSMENT CONTROL, PLANNING
-,
PROCEDURES
..
I I
PROBABILITY CONSEQUENCES
.....
OFFAILURE OFFAILURE--
..
I I I
DEFECT/. DEFECT/
FAILURE
CONSEQUENCES
DAMAGE DAMAGE OF
EQUATIONS
DATA FREQUENCY FAILURES
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAle Ltd

7. RISKASSESSMENTS -Why?
RiskAssessmentsareneededfor:
Compliancewithregulators,legislationandcode(movefrom
prescriptivetogoal-baseddesign)
Controlofthehazardsassociatedwithpipelines(costofafailure
ismadeupofdirectcosts(e.g.repairs),andindirectcosts(lossof
business&goodwill,compensationclaims,etc.).Indirectscan
bethelargest. ~.
ControlofInsuranceCost
Improvementstopipelineefficiency,safetyandsecurity
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAle Ltd

8. ,CONTROLLING CONSEQUENCES -ASME831.8
~""'f
Class1(Div1)
(.. DesignFactor=0.80
Class1(Div2)O-10buildings(rural)DesignFactor=0.72
Class2 11-45buildings DesignFactor=0.60
(areasaroundtowns)
Class3 46+dwellings DesignFactor=0.50
(e.gsuburban)
Class4 Multistorey-type DesignFacto=0.40
buildings
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAleLtd

9. RISKMANAGEMENT (definitionfromOPS,USA)
Riskmanagementcoversthreeareas:riskassessment,riskcontrol
anddecisionsupport,performancemonitoringandfeedback.
RiskManagementproduces,structuresandpresentsthebestavailablerisk
informationtosupportandfacilitatebettermanagementdecisions.
Riskmanagementallowsmanagementdecisionsandtheirbasestobemore
easilycommunicated
Riskmanagementidentifiesallriskstothepipeline,selectssuitablecontrols,
andappropriateperformancemeasures
Riskmanagementdoesnotreplace'pipelinecompanymanagersorregulators
withcomputermodels.Corporatemanagersand.regulatorsmakedecisions,
aided,butnotdictatedby,technicalandquantitativeanalyses
Riskmanagementisacontinuousprocess,withupdatesandrefinements
continual1yfedbackintotheprocess
Riskmanagementrequirescorporateleadership,commitment,and
accountability
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright
ADivisionofSAICLtd

10. RISKMANAGEMENT -BasicPrincipies
Riskmanagementis'acomprehensivemanagementdecisionsupportprocess.
Riskcanbecontrolledthroughthecosteffectiveapplicationoffiniteresources
Riskcannotbetotallyeliminated
Riskmanagementincreases,integrates, andenhancesthevalueof
informationconcemingpipelinesafety
Riskmanagementprogrammesarestructuredbutflexible,allowing
customisedapproachestobedevelopedforspecificissues,encouraging
innovationandsupportingcontinuousimprovement
Theimplementationofariskmanagementprogrammeshouldresultin
alevelofpublicsafetyandenvironmentalprotectionequaltoorgreaterthan
thatwhichexistedpriortoimplementationoftheprograrnme
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAleLtd

11. Administration
Roles,Procedures,Responsibilities,Expertiserequired,Processesused
toassessperformanceofpeopleandprocedures,etc..
Communication
Theorganisation'sinternalcommunicationsystemshouldclearlyinform
allpeopleanddepartmentsoftheriskmanagementgoals,procedures,
organisation,results,etc..
Theorganisationsexternalcommunicationsystemshouldensurethat
theinterestsandconcernsofregulatorsandallstakeholdersareconsidered
discussedandcornmunicated /)
Documentation i,...
AHirksmanagementdatashallbeacquired,processed,storedandreported
ProcessEvaluation&Improvement
TheriskmanagementprogrammeneedstobecontinualIymonitored
assessedandimproved
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAleLtd

12. ·RISKMANAGEMENT -Process
.......
RiskAssessment
Whattypesofriskswillbeaddressed?
Whatadverseeventscanhappen?
Howlikelyaretheseevents?
Howseverewouldtheconsequencesbe?
Whatriskhasbeenincreased?
RiskControlandDecisionSupport
Whatcouldbedonetocontrolrisks?
Whataretherelativemeritsandoptions?
Whatsetofactivitiesbestsachievestheriskmanagementgoals?
PerformanceMonitoringandFeedback
Whatimprovementsareexpectedfromtheriskcontroldecisions?
Whatmeasuresbestcapturetheseexpectedoutcomes?
Aretheselectedriskcontrolactivitieshavingtheintendedeffects?
Howcantheoverallriskmanagementprocessbeimproved?
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAICLtd

13. RISKMANAGEMENT -ApproachinUSA
RiskAssessment
I::¡:...... ·~EstimateFrequency
&Consequences
¡ofpossibleincidents
:
!
j
¡
~
1
I
¡
¡
I
!
¡
:
¡
I
¡
PerformanceMonitoring
&Feedback
Determineifriskcontrol!-oII-.<ó--------'
decisionsproducethe
anticipated outcomes
Evaluation&Comparisonof
¿ Options
""
Selectbestsetofdesign&
operationalpracticestoproduce
equalorgreatersafety
RiskControl&DecisionSupport
Selectactivitiestoreducerisk
orproduceequallevelsof
safetymoreefficiently
IdentificationofRiskControl
Issues
Definemajorcontributorstorisk,
andhowtocontrolthem
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES
copyright ADivision ofSAIC I.td
IdentificationofRiskControl
Options
Definespecificaltemativesto
currentdesign&operationthat
reauceriskorincreaseefficiency

14. ·RISKASSESSMENTS -KeyElements
r
Determine
WHowillbeinvolvedinthe
ifandwhyyou
....Assessment, f.lndwillit Identify person/group,
....
beAcceptableto
,
whocandotheAssessment
wantaRiskAssessment
RegulatoryAuthorities?
~
Estimate
Establish DataBase.>
~
Failure
.....
IDENTIFYallHazards
.....
ofPipeline, Route&Plant
PROBABILITY
~
Estimate
Calculate
Establish&Agree
Failure
....
ACCEPTABLE RISK
,
RISK
,
CONSEQUENCES LEVELS
,¡,..
Implement,Control~ .J
AssessifCompanywill
.....
DocumentallAnalysis
...
AcceptRisk(compared
ReviewandAudit
toGain)
______________ ..~
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivision ofSAICLId

15. METHODOLOGY FORQUANTIFYING FAILUREPROBABILITIES
ean1Operate/Design DESIGN:
¿
LOWER 'X'
rnyPipelineatStress'x' STRESS'X'EXAMPLE
l.ESTABLISHCREDIBLE
FAILUREMODES
I
2.COLLA TEINPUTDATA
I
3.COLLATEFAILURE
EQUATIONS no
t
,")
4.CONDUCTFAILURE
PROBABILITIESCALCULATI6NS
,1.-
5.CONSIDER.'.
7.DECISIONTOOL:
CONSEQUENCES
....
6.ARRIVE ATPf
....
, ,
OFFAILURE
ISPf'ACCEPTABLE'?
DESIGN/OPERA TE
OA&AUDIT J+- AT'X'
.i
"' esy
ANDREW PALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright
ADivisionofSAleLtd

16. QUANTIFYING FAILUREPROBABILITIES-ONSHORE PIPELINE
Can1OperatelDesign
DESIGN:
LOWER'X'
.J
rnyOnshorePipeline
STRESS'X'EXAMPLE
....
atStress'x'?
l.ESTABLISHCREDIBLE
FAILUREMODES:(e.g.)
thisisonlyanexample (mechanicaldamage,corrosion,terrorism)
withselectedfailure
2.COLLATEINPUTDATA:
modes
(pipewallthickncsses,thirdpartyactivityrate/typeandsize,
corrosionrate/type, terroristactivity/type/frequency
3.COLLATEFAILUREEQUATIONS:
BGlDnVCorrosionmodels,Dent/gougemodels,punctureresistancemodels
no
t
4.CONDUCTFAILURE
PROBABILITIESCALCULATIONS
foreachfailuremodeusingFORM, SORM,etc..
,~
5.CONSIDERCONSEQUENCES
OFFAILURE:
"6.ARRIVEATPfTOTAL
7.DECISIONTOOL:
l.Highorlowpopulationdensities?
, ,
ISPf'ACCEPTABLE'?2.Environmentalthreat?
3.Securityofsupplythreat? DESIGN/OPERATE
AT'X'
.J_
" esy
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAICLtd

17. QUANTIFYING FAILUREPROBABILITIES-OFFSHORE PIPELINE
7.DECISIONTOOL:
Sr,'ACCEPTABLE'?
1,
Can1OperatelDesign
DESIGN: L
¿
myOffshorePipeline
STRESS'X'EXAMPLE
atStress'x'?
1.ESTABLISHCREDIBLE
FAILUREMODES:(e.g.)
thisisonlyanexample
vupheavalbuckling,spanning,trawlboardinteraction
withselectedfailure
2.COLLATEINPUTDATA:
modes (wallthickness,temperature,soil/pipeinteractions,fishing
activity/type, spanlengthslheights,environmentalloadings, etc.
3.COLLATEFAILUREEQUATIONS:
UpheavalbucklingJIP,DnVSpanGuidelines,DamageCriteria
t
.)
4.cONDUCTFAILURE
PROBABILITIESCALCULATIONS~.
foreachfailuremode,usingFORM,SORM, etc..
1;-
5.CONSIDERCONSEQUENCES
OFFAILURE: ...
6.ARRIVEATPfTOTAL
...
l.Nearplatformorawayfromplatform?
,
1
2.Environmentalthreat?
3.Securityofsupplythreat? DESIGN/OPERATE
OWER'X'
no
AT'X' yes
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright
ADivision ofSAle Ltd

18. ·'ACCEPTABLE' FAILUREPROBABILITIES
OFFSHORE
ACCEPTABLE FAILUREPROBABILITIES(peryear)
"""'f
(:
LimitStates SAFETYZONE OPENWATER
Ultimate 10-5 -10-Q 10-3 -10-4
Serviceabilit 10-1 -10-2 10-1 -10-2
ONSHORE
TARGETFAILUREPROBABILITIES(perkm)
LimitStates
MORE LESSSERIOUS
SERVICEABILITY
SERIOUS
(Remote)
(Urban)
Ultimate 10-7 10-4
Serviceabilit 10-3
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright ADivisionofSAICLId
-- - ---------

19. ·'ACCEPTABLE' RISKStromtheUK
INTOLERABLE
ASLOWASIS
REASONABLY
PRACTICABLE
ACCEPTABLE
ANDREWPALMERANDASSOCIATES copyright
ADivisionofSAleLtd