Astrid Bos - Identifying trade offs & searching for synergies.pdf

This OECD technical workshop will bring together leading experts on economic, biophysical, and integrated assessment modelling of the interactions between climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution. The workshop will take stock of ongoing modelling efforts to develop quantitative pathways to study the drivers and impacts of the triple planetary crisis, and the policies to address it. The aim is to identify robust modelling approaches to inform the work for the upcoming OECD Environmental Outlook.

1. Identifying trade-offs & searching for synergies
Modelling sustainability targets in the water -land-climate nexus
OECD expert modellingworkshop
19 February2024
Astrid Bos

2. ›Interaction between
physicalprocesses and
humanactivities (land use)
Water-land-climate
nexus
19 Feb 2024 2
IPCC, 2019

3. ›Hydrology –water cycle:
•movementof water
•distributionof water
•impacts of humanuse
Water-land-climate
nexus
19 Feb 2024 3
Vargas Godoy et al
(2021)

4. ›Climate related natural
processes
–solar radiation, evaporation,
plant growth
›Land use
–agriculture (crops + livestock)
–forestry
›Climate change
–land use emissions = 23%
›Climate change mitigation
–Emissions ↓
–Carbon sequestration ↑
Water-land-climate
nexus
19 Feb 2024 4

5. ›Interaction of
land cover(physical)
& land use (human)
system
–Land use
–Carbon cycle
–Water use
–Agro-economy
IMAGE-land
19 Feb 2024 5

6. 619 Feb 2024
Earth system
IMAGE land-management:
5 arc-min grid
•Land-useallocation
•Livestock andforestrysystems
•LU emissionsandland-basedmitigation
MAGNET agro -
economicfeedbacks:
•Climateimpacts
•Land availability
•Locationeffectson
yields
TIMER/FAIR climate& energy:
Regional:
•Energy & IndustryGHG emissions
•Bio-energydemand
•Carbon prices
MAGICC simple
climatemodel
30 arc-min grid
•Temperature
•Precipitation
LPJmLdynamicvegetation:
30 arc-min grid
•Carbon cycle
•Hydrology
•Crop& grassyields
Inputs
•GDP andpopulation
•Crop/livestock efficiency
•Scenario assumptions
MAGNET agro -economy:
Regional:
•Food consumption
•Agricultural productionand
in/extensification
•Crop/livestock trade
Land use and management
Socio-economic development Agricultural economy

7. 3IMAGE studies on the nexus
19 Feb 2024 7
•Global Land Outlook 2
•Future Water Challenges
•Water-land-food-climate nexus

8. Global Land Outlook 2
19 Feb 2024 8
•3 scenarios
▪Baseline
▪Restoration (5 billion ha)
▪Restoration & Protection (+400mln natural land)
•Effects of land restoration on: natural area,
biodiversity, soil organic carbon, agricultural
yields, water regulation and carbon storage
•Comparison:
▪Scenario to baseline
▪Change of time (2015-2050)
▪Comparison with current global restoration
commitments

9. Global Land Outlook 2
changes under the baseline 2015-2050
19 Feb 2024 9

10. Global Land Outlook 2
potential benefits of restoration & protection
19 Feb 2024 10

11. Global Land Outlook 2
trade-offs and regional effects
19 Feb 2024 11

12. Future Water Challenges
19 Feb 2024 12
›Bending the trend on water impacts and climate vulnerability
›Climate related challenges:
–too little
–too much
–too dirty
–impacts on biodiversity
›Business-as-usual vs. high ambition pathway

13. 19 Feb 2024 13
Future Water Challenges
Business-as-usual (left bars) vs.
high ambition pathway (right)
Improvementor deterioration of
impact indicators

14. Water-land-food-climate nexus
19 Feb 2024 14
›SDGs& planetaryboundaries
›Model comparison: IMAGE & MAgPIE
›Quantifyingtrade-offs& synergies
›6 scenarios:
–1 referencescenario: SSP2
–4 scenarios, withmeasuresin 1 nexusdimensioneach
▪Water
▪Land
▪Food
▪Climate
–1 integratedscenario
Doelman
et al
2022 ERL

15. Water-land-food-climate nexus
19 Feb 2024 15
Nexus measures:
–Water:
▪protectingenvironmentalflow requirements
▪improvednitrogenuseefficiency
–Land:
▪protecting50% of terrestrialnaturalland
▪improvednitrogenuseefficiency
–Food:
▪healthydiets
▪reducedfood waste
–Climate:
▪forestprotection
▪Bioenergy
▪reducednon-CO
2emissions
Doelman
et al
2022 ERL

16. Water-land-food-climate nexus
19 Feb 2024 16
Doelman
et al
2022 ERL
SCENARIO
Measures REF WATER LAND FOOD CLIMATE TOTAL
Environmental flow
requirements
Limit water extraction,
ensuring sufficient water to
ensure a fair condition of
aquatic ecosystems
Limit water extraction,
ensuring sufficient water to
ensure a fair condition of
aquatic ecosystems
Biodiversity protection
Biodiversity protection
extended to 50% of all
terrestrial ecoregions by
2050
Biodiversity protection
extended to 50% of all
terrestrial ecoregions by 2050
Fertilizer efficiency
Strong increase in fertilizer
efficiency
Strong increase in
fertilizer efficiency
Moderate increase in
fertilizer efficiency
Very strong increase in
fertilizer efficiency
Diet change
Diet change towards
healthy diets by 2050 as
proposed by Willet et al.,
2019
Diet change towards healthy
diets by 2050 as proposed by
Willet et al., 2019
Food waste
50% reduction in food
waste 50% reduction in food waste
GHG price
2030: 55 US$/tCO
2
2050: 87 US$/tCO
2
2030: 55 US$/tCO
2
2050: 87 US$/tCO
2
Bio-energy production
2030: 61 Ej/yr
2050: 96 Ej/yr
2030: 61 Ej/yr
2050: 96 Ej/yr
Climate impacts RCP 6.0 RCP 6.0 RCP 6.0 RCP 6.0 RCP 2.6 RCP 2.6

17. Water-land-food-climate nexus
19 Feb 2024 17
–Trade-offs:
▪Climatemitigation+ land protectionvs
food prices+ water withdrawal
–Synergies:
▪Diet+ waste measures& allnexusindicators
Doelman
et al
2022 ERL

18. ›Sectoralscenarios
›Integratedscenarios
–do-no-harm / optimal synergies
–implications of slow/fast action
›Combinationof both set of
scenarios needed →
–identifyingsynergies
–quantificationof trade-offs
Towards the OECD
Environmental Outlook
19 Feb 2024 18

19. Contact:
Detlef van Vuuren
[email protected]
Elke Stehfest
[email protected]
Jonathan Doelman
[email protected]
Astrid Bos
[email protected]
Further reading
›IMAGE
www.pbl.nl/image
›IMAGE model description
https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/integrated-
assessment-of-global-environmental-change-
with-image-30-model-description-and-policy-
applications
›Global land outlook
https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/the-global-
potential-for-land-restoration-scenarios-for-the-
global-land-outlook-2
›Future Water Challenges
https://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/policy-
summary-of-the-geography-of-future-water-
challenges-bending-the-trend
›Global water-land-food-climate
nexus study
Doelman et al 2022 ERL
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5766
19 Feb 2024 19
Thank you!