China The Next Ten Years by Dr Tim Dosemagen.pptx

An eye-opening and candid explanation of Communist China's immediate pathway in the coming decade, as it ramps up for war.

1. China: the next ten years Dr. Tim Dosemagen - CEO Chinese Translation & Counterintelligence Unclassified REL: US / AUKUS / NATO / ROK / JAPAN / ROC

2. AGENDA China: An Introduction China’s Economy China’s Military China’s Politics China’s Foreign Policy Chinese Expansionism COVID-19 The Past 10 Years The Next 10 Years Conclusions

3. China: an introduction 5,000 years of civilization 75 years of communist rule

4. National Flag The red color of the flag is the symbol of the revolution, signifying that the political power of the People's Republic of China is achieved through bloodshed and lives laid down by countless revolutionary martyrs who marched forward wave upon wave in the heroic struggles for the revolution. In the upper-left corner of the flag there are five-pointed yellow stars, of which the big one represents the Communist Party of China and the four small ones the people of all ethnic groups of the country. One point of the big star points right up the flag and of the four small ones each has a point pointing towards the centre of the big star. This shows that the Chinese Communist Party is the force at the core of the leadership of the Chinese people of all ethnic groups who unite closely as one round the Party. With the color of the stars in yellow this means the great cause of socialism has a bright future. With the flag-staff painted white, that is to suggest flawless purity and loftiness.

5. Geography

6. Comparative Land Areas China / United States

7. MONGOL EMPIRE: 1300S & 1400S

8. provinces

9. Population density

10. Population Trends China’s population peaked in 2015 at 1.38 billion. Now in decline, China’s population is estimated to fall below 1 billion by the year 2070. China's future population growth is a product of past control. The average number of children per woman has been below the replacement level of 2.1 since the mid-1980s. Most recent estimates from the State Statistical Bureau assume that current fertility on a national average is at 1.75 children per woman. In cities, the fertility was estimated at 1.33, in towns at 1.48, and in rural counties at 1.92 children per woman. Whatever population shrinkage we see in the future will be caused not only by low fertility, but also by the "population momentum" of China’s aging demographics. What will come is a legacy of the 1980s and beyond, when China’s One Child Policy first came into effect. Consequently, China now has a rapidly shrinking percentage of adults of reproductive age. China’s One Child Policy created two generations of only children numbering over 90 million. 119 baby boys were born for every 100 girls. The number of unmarried young men, called ‘bare branches’, is expected to be 30 million by 2030. 55 percent of Chinese women surveyed say they do not want to give up their careers to get married. This shrinking number of potential parents is the reason the number of births will remain low even if fertility remains at the current low level.

11. Population Trends China's population planners can do nothing about this structural decrease. The problem they face is ever decreasing fertility from the current low level. However, with China's economic modernization, this is an uphill battle, because in modern Chinese society many do not accept the government's policies. These policies have already been loosened for parents who were single children themselves, for farmers, and for ethnic minorities. In fact, most official Chinese population projections assume that fertility will increase only slightly, to levels somewhat below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Policymakers in China are of course aware of this challenge, and its economic ramifications. The family planning program still has very high political priority, even under the recently unsuccessful political administration.

12. Population Trends There is a secular trend toward small families among younger couples in urban areas. Surveys have documented a lifestyle change among those sections of the urban population that have benefited most from China’s pre-COVID economic development. Young Chinese prefer later marriages, later first births, and increased birth spacing, not only because these decisions were promoted for decades by the family planning program, but also because they make it easier to improve one’s education or pursue a career. As in many other developing countries, fertility in China will continue to decline with increased prosperity. Thus, China’s economic development is promoting a lifestyle change associated with lower fertility. China’s future population growth will depend very much on the current demographic trends.

13. Chinese Minorities Bai Li Tibetan Miao

14. The Chinese Language 3,000 characters required to be literate 4,000 years of pictogram evolution

15. The Chinese Language Two parts of each pictogram - radical & phonetic Radical = General category Phonetic = Pronunciation Hand Pray Pick-pocket

16. Chinese Religions Buddhism Taoism Confucianism Animism Christianity & Islam are widely discriminated against.

17. PRECIPITATION

18. CULTIVATION

19. ELEVATION

20. AGRICULTURE

21. INTENSE AVAILABLE LAND USE

22. SOUTH: LONG GROWING SEASONS

23. A long, repeating history of ‘the dynastic cycle’ Revolution. Good government. Rapid growth. Pride in work. Return to morality. Peace. Widespread prosperity. Increasing government spending. Wars of expansion. Increasing government borrowing. Rising taxes. Increasing decadence. Debt. Wars of maintenance. Massive government borrowing. Political chaos. Taxpayer revolts. Widespread obesity. Massive debt. Decadence in entertainment. Uncontrolled violence in the cities. Wars of defense. Visible decay. Revolution.

24. China: economy export led growth

25. Economic Growth Model #1: Encourage capital inflow #2: Grow as rapidly as possible while controlling inflation

26. GNP PROJECTIONS

27. PRE COVID: RAPID GROWTH

28. Currency The renminbi or ren min bi ( Simplified Chinese : 人民币 ); literally "people's currency") is the official currency in the mainland of the People's Republic of China (PRC), whose principal unit is the yuan ( Simplified Chinese : 元). It is issued by the People's Bank of China , the monetary authority of the PRC. The official ISO 4217 abbreviation is CNY, although also commonly abbreviated as "RMB". The Latinized symbol is ¥ . 1 USD = 7.27 RMB (AS OF 7/2024). PEGGED TO USD, LIMITED FLOATING RANGE.

29. INDUSTRY

30. Top 15 trading partners

31. Factory to the World Source – National Geographic magazine For every shipping container bringing materials into Guangdong Province, nine go out filled with exports. Percent of the world’s umbrellas made in China: 70. Percent of the world’s buttons made in China: 60. Percent of U.S. shoes made in China: 72. Percent of U.S. kitchen appliances made in China: 50.

32. Factory to the World Source – National Geographic magazine Percent of U.S. artificial Christmas trees made in China: 85. Percent of U.S. toys made in China: 80. Percent of Chinese goods sent to the U.S. that end up on Wal-Mart’s shelves: 9. Percent of unsafe toys recalled in the U.S. in 2007, including Thomas the Tank Engine, that were made in China: 100. Number of months a Chinese factory worker would need to work to earn the cost of a Thomas the Tank Engine train set: 6.

33. Composition of the economy

34. Opacity of official government reporting data National Bureau of Statistics of China (stats.gov.cn)

35. Control of consumers and the social score system

36. A growing and underserved elderly

37. Control of trading partnerships

38. Energy use

39. Energy import dependency China is the world’s largest energy consumer and has been a net importer of energy since 1993 .  The country is highly dependent on fossil fuel imports, and is the world’s largest importer of oil and natural gas .  China is also an important coal importer .  Before COVID, China imported a record amount of energy, including crude oil, natural gas, coal, and renewable energy .

40. Weaponizing trade China has taken trade weaponization to new heights. After Liu Xiaobo was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010, Chinese trade with Norway was severely reduced and did not begin to recover until after the king of Norway visited China in October 2018, more than a year after Liu’s death. More recently, China has taken similar actions against Australia after the latter called for an investigation into the origins of Covid-19. China severely limited access to National Basketball Association games after a team official spoke out in support of Hong Kong.

41. Pegging the rmb to the usd China’s currency peg keeps the Yuan low relative to other currencies, so consumers using foreign currencies can buy more of China's exports than they would if the yuan was more expensive. Specifically, the People's Bank of China keeps the yuan weak compared to the U.S. dollar, so consumers using the greenback can buy more Chinese exports. Exports are a major driver of China’s economy because they represent money flowing into a nation. To keep the Yuan artificially low and support robust export activity, the People's Bank of China engages in currency purchases. In the 20 years from 2004 to 2024, the foreign exchange reserves (minus gold) owned by China's central bank surged from roughly $615 billion to $3.13 trillion.

42. Massive government subsidies of export products / e.v.s

43. Uniquely chinese characteristics

44. China: military aspiring for naval & missile force dominance

45. ranking The Chinese military is ranked #2 in the world, behind only the United States. Annual military spending by China has increased from ($19 billion / 2002) to ($300 billion / 2025) ranking second, only behind the USA’s $900 billion. Corruption Purges have dominated recent Chinese military control by the Communist regime. The Chinese Navy is the largest on Earth, with 400 vessels. Chinese missile forces are highly capable, including carrier killers, hypersonics and soon - space based assets. These forces are extremely difficult to locate / interdict.

46. composition The  People's Liberation Army (PLA) is the armed wing of the  Chinese Communist Party  (CCP) and the military of the  People's Republic of China .  Led by The Chinese Military Commission , the PLA is organized into 4 Services and 4 Arms: Ground Force * Navy Air Force * Rocket Force Aerospace Force * Cyberspace Force Information Support Force * Joint Logistics Support Force

47. Missile power: Carrier killers and new icbms

48. Naval power People's Liberation Army Navy size 255,000 personnel (2024) 402 ships (excl. auxiliaries) Approx. 910+ aircraft

49. The People’s Liberation Air Force The PLA Air Force had a total strength of approximately 390,000, organized into 45 air divisions. Among them are five bomber divisions, 32 fighter divisions, six attack divisions, two transport divisions, 17 air defense divisions [with 220,000 troops], and one airborne army comprising three airborne divisions with 20,000 airborne troops. Fighters are 4 th generation and improving, bombers are slow, and are not stealthy.

50. Space power China is developing and deploying a variety of space weapon systems capable of destroying or interfering with American satellites .  These include direct energy weapons (such as lasers), satellite signal jammers, anti-satellite missiles, and spacecraft that can grapple other satellites .  China's goal is to displace the U.S. in space and challenge its dominance .

51. The People’s Liberation Army The 900,000 PLA, a sprawling organization of low-paid and poorly trained personnel, is modernizing from a corrupt, decrepit equipment base and outdated philosophy. The Chinese government has proposed a defense budget of CNY1.67 trillion (USD232 billion) for 2024, official state media has reported. The new expenditure represents a nominal year-on-year increase of 7.2%, the same rate of growth announced in 2023. Actual spending is believed higher – by as much as US$ 255 billion, foreign experts say, because the total doesn't include weapons purchases.

52. China: politics Stability - at all costs

53. 1949: revolution and maoist isolationism

54. 1950-1953: The Korean war

55. 1958 - 1962: The great leap forward

56. 1966-1976: The cultural revolution

57. 1979: The deng opening basic modernization and exponential growth

58. 2001: Wto accession and export led global engagement

59. 2012: Xi thinking and hardball economics

60. Current Political Leadership General Secretary: XI JINPING (since 15 November 2012). Maximum leader. Unprecedented 3 rd Term . Premier: LI QIANG (since 11 March 2023). Before Xi Jinping, r esponsible for the economy and the technical details of implementing government policy. 

61. General secretary of the communist party and chairman of the central military commission xi jinping : profile Born: 6.15.1953 – In his 70s Steeped in the ways of the Communist Party Public stiffness in front of foreigners Spent two weeks in South America in 2004 – more time than George W. Bush had spent on the continent in four years Pledged billions of dollars of investments in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Cuba Never studied outside of the PRC Energetic image Optimistic domestic viewpoint Became party member in early 1960’s, headed the Communist Youth League in the poor western province of Gansu Hardline believer in Chinese greatness

62. POLITICAL LEADERSHIP VICE PREMIERS DING XUEXIANG HE LIFENG ZHANG GUOQING LIU GUOZHONG

63. POLITICAL LEADERSHIP State Councilors The State Council of the People's Republic of China, also known as the Central People's Government, is the chief administrative authority and the national  cabinet  of  China . It is constitutionally the highest administrative organ of the country and the executive organ of the  National People's Congress , the  highest organ of state power . It is composed of the premier, vice premiers, state councilors, ministers of ministries, directors of committees, the auditor general, and the secretary-general. Reporting to Premier Xi Jinping: Li Qiang Ding Xueqiang He Lifeng Zhang Guoqing Liu Guozhong Wang Xiaohong Wu Zhenglong Shen Yiqin

64. National peoples congress The Choir Of Totalitarian Chinese Communism Unanimous votes – unabashed docility and thought control Compliance and passivity – masquerading as unity and stability A total lack of any creative energy – overwhelmingly male Tantamount to a high school student council - with a dress code

65. China: foreign policy embracing expansionism

66. Partnership with the putin regime: russia Energy imports Support of Ukraine War / Expansionism Provision of weapon components and technology Import of airplane engine technology Security of 2,615 mile border (site of 1962 war) Import of wood, fish, metals, foodstuffs and strategic minerals

67. Partnership with the kim dynasty: north korea Strategic minerals and base metal imports Support of nuclear weapon development Support of missile development Export of weapons and technology Security of 840 mile border (site of smuggling) Support of international sanctions cheating Support of international hacking and terrorism

68. Partnership with the Islamic republic of iran Cheap oil imports Supply of oil tankers Tacit support of Houthi terrorism Tacit support of Hamas terrorism Tacit support of Hezbolla terrorism Support of international sanctions cheating Support of international hacking and terrorism

69. The belt & road initiative The Belt and Road Initiative, known in China as the One Belt One Road and sometimes referred to as the New Silk Road, is a global infrastructure  development  strategy adopted by the  Chinese government  in 2013 to invest in more than 150 countries and international organizations. The BRI is composed of six urban development land corridors linked by road, rail, energy, and digital infrastructure and the Maritime Silk Road linked by the development of ports. Xi originally announced the strategy as the "Silk Road Economic Belt" during an official visit to  Kazakhstan  in September 2013. "Belt" refers to the proposed  overland routes  for  road  and  rail transportation  through  landlocked  Central Asia along the famed  historical   trade routes  of the  Western Regions ; "road" is short for the  21st Century Maritime Silk Road , which refers to the  Indo-Pacific   sea routes  through Southeast Asia to South Asia, the Middle East and Africa. It is considered a centerpiece of the  Chinese Communist Party  (CCP)  general secretary   Xi Jinping 's  foreign policy .

70. Isolation of taiwan China is pursuing a concerted strategy to isolate Taiwan internationally and intimidate it and its would-be supporters militarily. But Australia—a critical US ally in the region—has responded to China’s strategies by deepening its diplomatic ties with Taiwan and building its military deterrence capabilities. Ironically, Beijing’s efforts to isolate and intimidate are generating unintended outcomes that will make it harder for China to achieve its long-term goals.

71. African influence peddling China is the African continent’s largest trading partner and source of foreign direct investment. Its investment has helped spur infrastructure development and economic growth.  China’s need for oil and other resources and a market to sell its products has driven its investment in Africa. While many in Africa view China’s investment favorably, some political leaders and workers have criticized Beijing for ignoring environmental standards, violating local laws, and other exploitative behaviors.

72. South american influence peddling China is South America’s top trading partner and a major source of both foreign direct investment and lending in energy and infrastructure, including through its massive Belt and Road Initiative.  It has invested heavily in Latin America’s space sector and has strengthened its military ties with several countries, particularly Venezuela. Policymakers in Washington are pursuing new trade and investment avenues to bolster U.S. leadership in the region and push back against Beijing’s influence.

73. Dividing western alliances If true superpower status is China’s desired destination, there are two roads it might take to try to get there. The first is the one American strategists have until now emphasized (to the extent they acknowledged China’s global ambitions). This road runs through China’s home region, specifically the Western Pacific. It focuses on building regional primacy as a springboard to global power, and it looks quite familiar to the road the United States itself once traveled. The second road is very different because it seems to defy the historical laws of strategy and geopolitics. This approach focuses less on building a position of unassailable strength in the Western Pacific than on outflanking the U.S. alliance system and force presence in that region by developing China’s economic, diplomatic, and political influence on a global scale.

74. Losing European nations through undemocratic policies China’s rising power and its tendency to use that power to punish other countries for even minor offenses have shifted  European attitudes in a sharply negative direction . Twenty years ago, European attitudes toward China were mostly positive; today, the share of the population with an “unfavorable” view of China has  reached  63 percent in Spain, 85 percent in Sweden, 70 percent in France, and 71 percent in Germany. China’s confrontational diplomatic style and its efforts to impose cultural uniformity by “reeducating” millions of Uyghurs  have played poorly in Europe as well . These dimensions of threat—rising aggregate power and growing perceptions that China is a revisionist power that doesn’t play nice—have led many European governments to take a warier view of China’s growing role on the world stage. Looking ahead, a shared desire to keep a restless, intolerant, and quick-to-anger China from exerting the greatest influence over the core principles of world order is likely to encourage most of Europe (and especially America’s closest allies there) to line up with Washington, at least on such issues as trade or basic human rights.

75. Reducing domestic dollar holdings China  unloaded a record volume of US bonds in the first quarter of 2024, escalating the country's pivot from dollar-denominated assets. According to US Treasury data cited by Bloomberg, Beijing sold $53.3 billion worth of US Treasury and agency bonds from its stockpile. That's above already eye-catching volumes China was offloading last year.

76. Reducing international dollar dependence First, China has supported and promoted regional and multilateral currency and financial co-operation through regional or non-western partnerships. In 2000, it supported the launch of the Chiang Mai Initiative in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis and the Bank for International Settlements’ Renminbi Regional Liquidity Arrangement in 2022 in response to the economic shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Chinese government has also engaged with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the other BRICs member countries (Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) to promote using local currencies in trade, investment and development finance. Second, China has attempted to broaden the use of the renminbi in international trade and investment while promoting renminbi-based international financial infrastructures. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Chinese government has put resources into developing a renminbi-based financial infrastructure.

77. hacking: the great hack of the u.s. government (2014-2015)

78. Expansionist china : naked aggression

79. Wolf warriorism Wolf Warrior  ( Chinese :  战狼 ) is a 2015 Chinese  war film  written and directed by  Wu Jing . It stars Wu Jing along with  Scott Adkins ,  Yu Nan  and Kevin Lee. It was released on 2 April 2015. A sequel, titled  Wolf Warrior 2 , was released in China in 2017 and became the all-time highest-grossing film in China. Today’s Chinese leadership has a war fever / expansionist bent equal to that of China’s former Japanese Imperialist masters under Tojo . Xi Jinping exhibits all the characteristics of Wolf Warriorism in China’s throwing of sharp elbows in the South China Sea, overt threatening to take Taiwan by force, its border battles with India, and early ‘repatriation’ of Hong Kong.

80. Anti-americanism After President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met, the duo agreed to boost engagement among regular citizens, but U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns  told The Wall Street Journal  that China has actively undermined that agreement. For example, the Journal reported, citizens who attend events organized by the U.S. in China have been interrogated and intimidated. The embassy has also had increased restrictions on its social media posts. “They say they’re in favor of reconnecting our two populations, but they’re taking dramatic steps to make it impossible,” Burns told the Journal.

81. Recent Historical Highlights 1999 – U.S. destroys Chinese embassy in Belgrade; massive Chinese street protests ensue. The United States agreed to pay $4.5 million in damages to about two dozen people injured and the families of three reporters killed when NATO bombs hit the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade , former Yugoslavia. U.S. envoys also asked Beijing to pay for damages to U.S. diplomatic offices in China that occurred during violent protests after the May 7, 1999 bombing.

82. Covid / wuhan-19 A crime scene cover up

83. December 5 th , 2019: The Chinese authorities knew the wuhan virus was human-to-human transmitted and deadly . Gain of function virus research was ongoing in China. The single strand RNA virus is a vascular disease, attacking the tiny capillary systems of the body: Brain / Kidneys / Lungs / Heart / Intestines / Circulatory Of 200,000 population centers in China, Wuhan was the virus’ epicenter. International flights were long kept going by China, well after knowledge of the virus’ transmissibility, virulence and deadliness, from 12.5.19 – 1.16.20. The Communist authorities spread disinformation on the origins of the virus, claiming that the United States was to blame. Foreign residents of China were anal-swabbed during the epidemic’s height.

84. December 5 th , 2019: The Chinese authorities knew the wuhan virus was human-to-human transmitted and deadly . China’s population has an aging crisis – a large and growing elderly cohort, dependent on single child support due to the One China Policy, pressuring meager state support, requiring huge government funding. China’s economy is overwhelmingly heads-down / manufacturing, versus The West, which is overwhelmingly person to person / services. The virus devastated the old, the obese, and service workers. Western nations were hit the hardest. The United States alone took a $6 Trillion hit. Effects are still being felt in education and services. The crime scene in Wuhan was immediately shut tight. The crime scene in Wuhan remains closed tight by the Communists.

85. December 5 th , 2019: The Chinese authorities knew the wuhan virus was human-to-human transmitted and deadly . 1,100,000 Americans have died from the Wuhan virus. 130,000,000+ Americans have been infected by COVID-19. 20% of those infected have Long COVID, and are still experiencing symptoms. Long term effects on human health are apparent, worrisome and still evolving. The virus is still active, still mutating, still being spread and still killing. Unanswered Q1: Why did China design, create and release the virus? Unanswered Q2: Why did the Chinese purposely keep international flights going from 12.5.19 through mid-January 2020?, infecting the entire population of Earth? Unanswered Q3: Why does China keep the Wuhan crime scene closed?

86. The past ten years: intimidation, competition & preparation for war

87. Expansionism and naked aggression Spy Balloon deployment over North America. Purchases / leases of real-estate near United States military bases. Fentanyl exports to the American market, 100,000 overdoses PY. Hacking of the United States Government’s personnel system (2013-2015). Weaponization of Tik Tok social media to destroy the mental health of American youth, raising suicide rates. Open harassment of the United States Navy. Establishment of a Cuban intelligence base.

88. Expansionism and naked aggression Forced, early and draconian ‘repatriation’ of HK. Illegal seizure of the vast South China Sea territory. Manufacture of, and militarization of South China Sea islands. Deployment of anti-submarine warfare assets / Type 55 DDs. Claiming ownership of Japanese islands. Claiming ownership of Vietnamese islands. Deployment of Dongfang missiles. Doubling of offensive intercontinental ballistic missile force.

89. Expansionism and naked aggression Naked aggression against the Republic of the Philippines Navy. Hostile intercepts and intimidation of Australian Navy. Hostile intercepts and intimidation of Japanese Navy. Harassment of South Korean Navy. Deadly incursions into disputed Indian territory. Support of North Korean nuclear / ballistic missile development. Undersea cable cutting incidents against NATO nations. Rapid build-up of 400 ship navy. Deployment of 3 aircraft carriers – power projection vectors. Naked aggression against Taiwan, Republic of China.

90. The great Chinese hack of the U.S. government’s personnel system The hack began in November of 2013, when the attackers first breached OPM networks. This attacker or group is dubbed  X1  by the Congressional OPM data breach report. While X1 wasn’t able to access any personnel records at that time, they did manage to exfiltrate manuals and IT system architecture information. The next month, in December of 2013, is when we definitively know that attackers were attempting to breach the systems of two contractors, USIS and KeyPoint , who conducted background checks on government employees and had access to OPM servers (though USIS may have actually been breached months earlier).

91. The great Chinese hack of the U.S. government’s personnel system In March of 2014, OPM officials realized they’d been hacked. However, they didn’t publicize the breach at that time, and, having determined that the attackers were confined to a part of the network that didn’t have any personnel data, OPM officials chose to allow the attackers to remain so they could monitor them and gain counterintelligence. OPM did plan for what they called the “big bang”—a system reset that would purge the attackers from the system—which they implemented on May 27, 2014, when the attackers began to load keyloggers onto database administrators’ workstations.

92. The great Chinese hack of the U.S. government’s personnel system Unfortunately, on May 7, 2014, an attacker or group dubbed X2by the report had used credentials stolen from KeyPoint to establish another foothold in the OPM network and install malware there to create a backdoor. This breach went undetected and the “big bang” didn’t remove X2’s access or the backdoor. In July and August of 2014, these attackers exfiltrated the background investigation data from OPM’s systems. Every Form SF-86 Questionnaire For National Security (which is the government’s official application for a security clearance) filed from late 1988 until the discovery of the breach in 2014 was compromised.

93. The next ten years: conflict with the west and war against taiwan

94. Operation: “Taiwan Repatriation ” The Plan and Timeline for the 2026 PRC Quarantine and 2027 PRC Invasion of Taiwan, R.O.C. Created by Dr. Tim Dosemagen for his Podcast:

95. https://youtu.be/429Pu5342I4?si=bSlfdIVn2uZSjFdm 96 Introducing The 21 st Century PRC Navy A recent (2017) summary of Chinese Naval expansion Watch the link / video to the left.

96. PLAN Combatants 97 The overall battle force of the PLAN is expected to grow to 415 ships by 2025, and 435 ships by 2030. The USN, by comparison, included 291 battle force ships as of 10.19.23, and the USN’s 2024 budget submission projects 290 battle force vessels by 2030.

97. PLAN Combatants 98 China would win a naval war in Chinese territorial waters, under land-based air cover. However, the United States has no intention of fighting a war on China’s turf. The USN will instead fight that war on the high seas, which is their turf. China will lose a naval war anywhere else but just off the Chinese coast and FIC.

98. PLAN Combatants 99 In raw numbers, the PLAN has many more combatants, dependent upon which types of ships are included. In numbers of actual combat capable warships, the USN has 11 Aircraft Carriers (vs 3 PLAN carriers), and most critically, 55 attack submarines of varying type, which place the United States in a position to completely cut off all energy imports to the PRC, dominating the FIC.

99. Takeaways: 100 Although very dangerous and highly capable in green waters / PRC coastal / First Island Chain engagements, the PLAN would very quickly lose control of blue water operations to the USN, resulting in the closure of the Strait of Malacca, and a contested FIC, bringing 1,000 Yuan per liter gasoline to Shanghai. Ponder this.

100. War on taiwan 101 How the timeline for the PRC’s 2027 Taiwan invasion will likely unfold..

101. USN Attack Subs 102 In wartime, each of the United States Navy’s 55 attack submarines will carry over 100 MK-48 torpedoes. 3 MK-48s, well placed, will sink a Chinese aircraft carrier. Taiwan has over 1,000 MK-48 torpedoes. The PLAN cannot operate safely anywhere outside of the coast of China, and certainly not beyond the First Island Chain.

102. U.S. Navy Sub Tactics 103 In wartime, the United States Navy’s 55 attack submarines will employ the use of sea sail drones and droning tactics. One recent example of the tactical advantages offered via the employment of these weapons / tactics comes from the USN Triton activity off of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s coast. Click the video below. Video Ad (youtube.com)

103. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 104 1. In the immediate future, watch for the PRC to attempt to provoke the Philippines into a kinetic engagement somewhere in the South China Sea. Expect seizure of a Philippine Navy vessel, as a firm message.

104. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 105 2. Watch for massive ship redeployments (surface combatants AND subs) from the North Sea Fleet – Qingdao / Dalian and East Sea Fleet. SIGINT, HUMINT AND PHOTINT will tip The West off several months in advance .

105. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 106 3. W atch for key Naval and Marine personnel redeployments, on a massive scale, to Fujian Province.

106. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 107 4. Watch for the reoccupation of the islands of Kinmen ( Quemoy & Matsu) and the quarantine / occupation of t he Penghu Islands Archipelago.

107. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 108 5. Watch for a m assive s urge of weaponry, aircraft and support teams to all PRC Regional Airfields, Marine and Army bases.

108. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 109 6. The PLAN aircraft carriers Liaoning, Shanghai and Fujian will be fully operational by 2027. Pre-quarantine, w atch for these power projection assets to be pre-deployed - directly north, directly south, and directly east of Taiwan, at distances between 30 and 100 NM. 

109. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 110 7.  The invasion will first be preceded by a limited, then a comprehensive quarantine, in 2026. This quarantine will be enforced by between 200 to 230 PLAN naval assets, including Coast Guard and coastal patrol / fishing vessels, with key SCS island support.

110. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 111 8. An air campaign will commence after Taiwan is sufficiently provoked, likely in late 2026, providing semi-legitimate diplomatic cover for the looming ‘repatriation’ and invasion. Lack of food (and Taiwanese suffering) caused by the quarantine will be one of the stated pretexts for invasion. Watch for jamming, provoked intercepts, and heightened surveillance.

111. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 112 9. The final PRC ultimatum will be issued in early 2027. This will be rightly mocked by The West, and renounced by The Republic of China. The PRC will choose the best time window for 2027 invasion.

112. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 113 10. ‘Operation Repatriation’ commences in 2027. It is a disaster. MK-48 torpedoes (and swarms of other anti-ship assets) sink the Liaoning; the Fujian is quickly put out of action, and the Shanghai quickly loses control of Taiwan’s east coast to U.S. attack subs.

113. The botched Taiwan ‘repatriation’ 114 11. Taiwan, R.O.C., with direct assistance from the United States, AUKUS+2 and The West, will not only repulse this botched invasion, but will also present a loss of face in Beijing, infuriating the 群众 . ‘Xi Thinking’ meets its inevitable death spiral.

114. Next provocations by the PRC 115 Create an incident and seize a Philippines Navy vessel. Accelerate militarization of South China Sea. Grow stealth guided missile destroyer Type-55 series. Add anti-submarine warfare assets, green & blue water.

115. Conclusions: A future for xi thinking?

116. Weakness #1: An aging and declining population It’s the biggest demographic revolution in history: The number of China’s elderly is ballooning thanks to improvements in medicine and sanitation, while the number of people born after the government’s One Child Policy went into effect in 1979 is dwindling. China’s immense workforce, key to today’s boom, began shrinking after 2015. The country is attempting to fill jobs by continuing to tap underemployed rural laborers. But by 2050, close to a third of China’s citizens will be over 60 – three times the current population. China’s only children will have to support two parents – another burden.

117. Weakness #2: over dependence on exports

118. Weakness #3: climate change

119. Weakness #4: defending the three gorges dam in wartime

120. Weakness #5: a massive and restless lower class

121. Weakness #6: a spiritually polluted middle class

122. Weakness #7: an overbuilt and crumbling infrastructure

123. Weakness #8: the real estate sector

124. Weakness #9: bubbles in the economy

125. Weakness #10: undercapitalization Capital flight in China has been on the rise, with significant outflows of money leaving the country. In recent months, nearly $54 billion was sent overseas on behalf of banking clients, putting pressure on the yuan's exchange rate against the dollar .  The struggling economy and concerns about securities investments have contributed to this trend .

126. Weakness #11: isolation and decline

127. Weakness #12: the threat of revolution

128. Weakness #13: expatriation of the rich

129. Weakness #14: economic downturn

130. Weakness #15: environmental damage

131. Aspiration #1: A moon base and a mars mission

132. Aspiration #2: Cheap energy and domination of russia

133. Aspiration #3: Arctic influence, exploration and expansion

134. Aspiration #4: Development of fusion and fission power generation

135. Aspiration #5: Advanced microprocessor manufacturing monopoly

136. Aspiration #6: Cyber warfare and dominance

137. Aspiration #7: militarization of near space

138. Aspiration #8: total control of the domestic population

139. Aspiration #9: control of the panama canal

140. Aspiration #10: domination of African economies and control of African mineral wealth

141. Aspiration #11: Indian ocean naval bases

142. Aspiration #12: a six aircraft carrier navy

143. Aspiration #13: bankrupting a distracted west

144. Aspiration #14: western hemisphere influence

145. Aspiration #15: embedding Chinese students in key western industries

146. Closing thoughts FBI Director Christopher Wray: “The PRC has made it clear that it considers every sector that makes our society run as fair game in its bid to dominate on the world stage, and that its plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic and break America’s will to resist…” (official remarks at the Vanderbilt Summit on Modern Conflict and Emerging Threats in Nashville.)  Wray: Chinese Government Poses 'Broad and Unrelenting' Threat to U.S. Critical Infrastructure — FBI

147. THANK YOU Questions? Dr. Tim Dosemagen 520.704.3832 [email protected] Dr. Tim Dosemagen | LinkedIn