Climate Information for Society: Attribution and Engineering

28-30 January 2025…
OAR GFDL 5-Year Science Review (Presenter): Q3 – How can GFDL research and modeling be further utilized to meet NOAA stakeholder needs and enhance research partnerships to ensure GFDL’s success?, NOAA GFDL, NJ.

References...
Schreck III, C.M., D.R. Easterling, J.J. Barsugli, D.A. Coates, A. Hoell, N.C. Johnson, K.E. Kunkel, Z.M. Labe, J. Uehling, R.S. Vose, and X. Zhang (2024). A rapid response process for evaluating causes of extreme temperature events in the United States: the 2023 Texas/Louisiana heatwave as a prototype. Environmental Research: Climate, DOI:10.1088/2752-5295/ad8028

Zhang, Y., B.M. Ayyub, J.F. Fung, and Z.M. Labe (2024). Incorporating extreme event attribution into climate change adaptation for civil infrastructure: Methods, benefits, and research needs. Resilient Cities and Structures, DOI:10.1016/j.rcns.2024.03.002

Eischeid, J.K., M.P. Hoerling, X.-W. Quan, A. Kumar, J. Barsugli, Z.M. Labe, K.E. Kunkel, C.J. Schreck III, D.R. Easterling, T. Zhang, J. Uehling, and X. Zhang (2023). Why has the summertime central U.S. warming hole not disappeared? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0716.1

1. 1
Climate Information for Society:
NOAA’s Extreme Event Attribution
and ASCE Collaborations
Q3: How can GFDL research and modeling be further utilized to meet NOAA stakeholder needs
and enhance research partnerships to ensure GFDL’s success?
Presented by Zachary M. Labe

2. Designing climate services for timely, actionable information
Research and model development at
GFDL provide the foundation to support
accessible, high-quality, and trustworthy
products/tools
Relevance:
●NOAA FY2022-2026 Strategic Goal
to build a Climate-Ready Nation
●
●Bridge climate science with
actionable decision-making
●
●Answers OAR Societal Challenges
2
Trusted Relationships
Scientific Interpretation
Physical Observations
New Tools & Science
Community Risk Assessments
Education & Communication
Adapted: NAO 216-127; NOAA’s Mission: Science, Service, and Stewardship

3. Formation of NOAA’s system for a rapid attribution capability
3
Relevance: Extreme events are
impacting communities across the
United States
Goal: To develop a prototype
capability for rapid attribution
at NOAA
Focus on temperature and drought
NOAA-wide team, including many
laboratories and institutes
Barsugli et al. (2022)
Relative confidence in
attribution of different
extreme events

4. GFDL plays key role in advancing NOAA’s rapid attribution effort
4
Adapted from FY20 NOAA CPO call
Performance: SPEAR system
supports the main modeling
architecture: early warning
(seasonal prediction) and
process-oriented mechanisms
(causality, trends, diagnostics)
Targeted focus to characterize
event within range of natural
variability (large ensembles)
#1) Research and
Development
#2) Monitoring and
Triggering
#3) Observational
Analysis
#4) Causal
Analysis
#5) Communication
of Findings

5. Capabilities: GFDL models provide insight on changes in U.S. heat
5
Eischeid et al. (2023); Labe et al. (2024a)
SPEAR used in initial research effort to understand
the observed summertime warming hole pattern and
timing of emergence of regional change (AI/ML)
% of Ensemble Members
Probability of Summer Heat Exceeding 1936
Quality: Identify future risk of
U.S. heat waves using SPEAR
Large Ensemble relative to
the 1930s Dust Bowl
Observations (NOAA NClimGrid)
2001–2020 vs. 1957–2000,
with area mean subtracted out
Max Temperature (°C)
-1.5
+1.5
0
2000 2025 2050
80
40
10

6. 1.
2.
3.
4. Detailed causal analysis and return intervals
5. Communication of event attribution and support
5.1. Weather + climate service providers
Case study for Texas-Louisiana 2023 summer heat using SPEAR
6
Schreck et al. (2024)
Monitoring (NOAA NClimGrid-Daily)
1. Pre-event prediction/research and development2. Event monitoring and triggering protocols3. Initial observational analysis
Performance: GFDL SPEAR’s high-resolution large ensemble captures variability & key extremes – crucial for this approach
Frequency

of Days (%)
Percentile for 4-8 August 2023
Maximum Temperature
Consecutive Days Above Threshold

7. SPEAR predictions accelerate early warning and detection
Performance/Quality: SPEAR forecasts
skillfully predicted several months in
advance that the Central U.S. could be a
potential hotspot for extreme heat in 2023
SPEAR Large Ensemble with historical and
future radiative forcing used to separate
model’s anomalous forcing component
from influence of initial conditions (e.g.,
SST, soil moisture) and natural variability
7
Schreck et al. (2024)
SPEAR Temperature Forecast (°C) – June-August 2023
Observed Anomaly Lead 2 Forecast (1 April Init.)
Radiative Forcing ContributionInitial Conditions Contribution

8. Relevance: New utility of rapid attribution data for civil engineering
8
Zhang et al. (2024)
Approach Extreme Event Attribution Climate Projections
Outcomes Changes in extreme events Future trends in climate hazards
Potential
Engineering
Applications
(Performance)
Building Code Improvement: based on past
weather events and observed/new vulnerabilities
Strategy Assessment: cost of strategies
designed to mitigate increasing impacts
Strategy Optimization: recognize responsibility
of stakeholders for future changes in extremes
Building Code Improvement: design parameters
and hazard mapping incorporate projections
Strategy Assessment: projection information
used to assess cost-effectiveness of planning
Strategy Optimization: identify regions and
populations most vulnerable to future change
Ongoing collaborations (GFDL/UMD/NIST) to link attribution assessments for resilient civil infrastructure systems (Quality)

9. 9
●Relevance: To ensure nation’s infrastructure is
resilient and adaptable to changing hazards
○NOAA and American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) effort
○Collaborative workshops to understand user needs/science
○Account for a non-stationary climate for the first time
○
○
●Quality: SPEAR selected by Task Force due to its
spatial resolution and suite of ensembles
○GFDL already contributed SPEAR_MED/HI output (25/50 km) to NOAA Atlas 15
GFDL models and science support NOAA-ASCE partnership
for climate-resilient infrastructure design

10. ●NOAA-ASCE Task Force is the first of its kind collaboration
○Quality of GFDL’s seamless modeling framework meets the needs for stakeholders and society
■Example: Ongoing project using 50 km SPEAR to analyze climate risks for freight railroads
●SPEAR seasonal forecasts shows promising skill in predicting high-impact phenomena
○Communities are looking for early warning outlooks for decision-making and planning (see talk by N. Johnson)
○
●Resolution, data-archiving, & sustained support (see talk by A. Radhakrishnan)
○Minimum of at least 25 km horizontal spatial resolution and interest in sub-hourly information
○Engineering need for time horizons that extend beyond CMIP, such as to 2150 and beyond
●Communication of different components of uncertainty (science + industry + society)
●Challenges in assessing risks & hazards using single realizations of future scenarios
10
Opportunities & challenges for supporting a Climate-Ready Nation