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1. Thesis Colloquium Ankush Sharma M. Sc. (F-2020-1 7 -M) Department of Environmental Science Dr Y S Parmar University of Horticulture and Forestry Nauni-Solan, HP

2. Title “Climate variability and its impact on phenology and productivity of apple ( Malus × domestica Borkh.) in Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh”

3. Objectives 1. To study the climate variability 2. To study the effect of climate variability on crop phenology and productivity

4. Introduction Apple is the main fruit crop of Himachal Pradesh, which is widely grown in the states falling under sub -temperate to temperate mountainous regions. Apples can be grown at an altitude of 1,500-2,700 m amsl in the Himalayan range, where they receive 1,000-1,500 hours of chilling requirement. Apple productivity has dropped by 40-50 percent in orchards which are at 1500 meters above mean sea level due to a warmer climate, which has resulted in a insufficient chilling requirements during the winter and a warmer summer in lower elevations, causing apple production to shift to higher elevations. Climate change is a global environmental problem and one of the most pressing issues facing humanity today.

5. Experimental Design Variety Altitudinal gradients (amsl) Royal delicious 1200 - 1500 Five orchards were selected from each gradients 1600 - 1900 2000 - 2300 2400 - 2600 Altitudes gradients : 4 variety : 1 Total no. of combination : 4 X 1 Replication : 5

6. Observations of phenophasic developmental stages for the study as described by Chapman and Catlin (1976) Silver tip: fruit bud scales separated at tip, showing light grey tissue. Green tip: Fruit buds broken at tip, showing about 1/16-inch (1-2 mm) green. Pink bud: flower petals elongating, sepals slightly open, petals just visible. Full bloom: at least 50 percent of flowers open, first petals falling. Petal fall: after about 75 percent of petals have fallen.

7. Accumulated Growing Degree Days (GDD) is calculated from weather data (maximum and minimum temperature) of the respective site using the following formula: T i = (T max +T min )/2

8. DATA COLLECTION S.NO. Data Source 1. Weather data IMD Shimla and NASA (1991-2020) 2. Phenological data Observations from the orchards in different locations 3. Farmers perception Survey from the farmers

9. Climate variability analysis Duration for measurement: 1. Monthly 2. Yearly 3. Decade The year is divided into three phases based upon : 1. Dormant phase (Nov- Feb) 2. Active phase-1 (Mar- Apr) 3. Active phase-2 (May-Sept)

10. Data Analysis Analysis of temperatures Maximum temperature Minimum temperature Average temperature 2. Analysis of precipitation

11. Mean: X= Ʃ Xi/n Where, X= Mean i= Variable n= total number of variables Standard Deviation: √⅀(Xi-͞X) 2 n-1 Where, σ = standard deviation Xi= each value from observations N= number of observations ͞X= Statistical Mean C ) Coefficient of variation (CV): CV= σ ✕ 100 X Statistical analysis

12. Results Objective -1 To study the climate variability

13. Trend analysis a) Temperature Trends Fig. 4.1 Trends in mean temperature during d ormant phase (Nov-Feb)

14. Fig. 4.2 Trends in mean temperature during Active phase-1 (Mar-Apr) Fig. 4.3 Trends in mean temperature during Active phase-2 (May-Sept) in Shimla district

15. Fig. 4.4 Trens of mean temperature in Shimla district ( 1991-2020) Fig. 4.4 Annual mean temperature trends in Shimla district (1991-2020)

16. Fig. 4.6 Average maximum temperature trends of Dormant phase (Nov-Feb) in Shimla district Fig. 4.7 Average max temperature trends of Active phase-1 (Mar-Apr) in Shimla district

17. Fig. 4.8 Average max temperature trends of Active phase-2 (May-Sept) in Shimla district Fig. 4.9 Annual Maximum Temperature Trends in Shimla District

18. Fig. 4. 10 Average minimum temperature trends of Dormant phase (Nov-Feb) in Shimla district Fig 4.1 1 Average min temperature trends of Active phase-1 (Mar-Apr) in Shimla district

19. Fig. 4.1 2 Average min imum temperature trends of Active phase-2 (May-Sept) in Shimla district Fig. 4.1 3 Annual Mean Minimum Temperature trends in Shimla district (1991-2020)

20. b) Precipitation trends Fig. 4.1 4 Trends of Precipitation sum for Dormant phase (Nov-Feb) in Shimla district

21. Fig. 4.1 5 Trends of Precipitation sum for the Active phase-1 (Mar-Apr) trends in Shimla district Fig. 4.18 Trends of Precipitation sum for the Active phase-2 (May-Sept) in Shimla district Fig. 4.1 6 Trends of Precipitation sum for the Active phase-2 (May-Sept) in Shimla district

22. Fig. 4.1 7 Annual Mean Precipitation trends in Shimla district (1991-2020)

23. Table 4.1 Decadal variation of weather parameters in Shimla district Decade 1 ( 1991-2000) Weather parameters MEAN RANGE SD CV (%) A verage temperature 20.96 20.04 - 22.27 0.61 2.92 M aximum temperature 31.54 30.56 - 33.15 0.85 2.69 M inimum temperature 11.90 10.98 - 13.03 0.57 4.75 P recipitation 899.12 537.89 - 1144.34 190.37 21.17 Decade 2( 2001-2010) Weather parameters MEAN RANGE SD CV A verage temperature 21.39 20.44 - 22.16 0.48 2.25 M aximum temperature 31.74 30.27 - 33.01 0.81 2.56 M inimum temperature 12.50 11.62 - 12.89 0.38 3.04 P recipitation 968.73 690.82 - 1492.38 252.29 26.04 Decade 3 (2011-2020) Weather parameters MEAN RANGE SD CV A verage temperature 20.85 19.98 - 22.01 0.58 2.77 M aximum temperature 30.80 29.80 - 31.88 0.70 2.28 M inimum temperature 12.51 11.21 - 14.24 0.84 6.71 P recipitation 1142.23 843.75 - 1455.47 202.02 17.69

24. Objective -2 To study the effect of climate variability on phenology and productivity of Apple

25. Phenological stages of Apple Silver tip Green tip Pink bud Full bloom Petal fall

26. Table 4. 2 Accumulated number of days taken to achive different phenological stages at selected altitudinal gradient for Royal delicious apple Stages Altitudinal gradients Days to attain Silver tip Green tip Pink bud Full bloom Petal fall (1200-1500m) 62.00 67.00 72.00 7 8 .33 83.66 (1600-1900m) 62.33 69.00 75.66 8 4. 33 90.00 (2000-2300m) 64 .00 72.6 6 79.33 8 7 .00 9 2 .66 (2400-2600m) 66.33 74.33 81.00 88.00 96.33 Mean 63.83 70.25 76.50 82.41 88.91 Locations = 1.427 CD 0.05

27. Table 4. 3 Phenothermal requirement of Royal Delicious apple at selected altitutdinal gradients in Shimla district Stages Altitudinal gradients Silver tip Green tip Pink bud Full bloom Petal fall (1200-1500m) 114.60 167.29 257.67 379.10 488.67 (1600-1900m) 132.60 181.05 261.01 313.74 400.49 (2000-2300m) 118.26 182.22 260.96 321.09 388.36 (2400-2600m) 107.28 148.20 224.00 335.95 421.51 Mean 118.18 169.69 250.91 337.47 424.76 CD 0.05 Locations = 11.72

28. Fig. 4.36 Trends of apple productivity at Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh in past 30 years

29. Fig. 4.37 Trends of apple productivity at Rampur block of Shimla district Fig. 4.38 Trends of apple productivity at Rohru block of Shimla district

30. Fig. 4.39 Trends of apple productivity at Mashobra block of Shimla district F ig . 4.40 Trends of apple productivity at Jubbal Kotkhai Block of Shimla district

31. Table 4. 2 C orrelation analysis between apple productivity and weather parameters at selected altitudinal gradients in Shimla district Weatherparameters 1200 - 1500 1600 - 1900 2000 - 2300 2400 - 2600 Temperature (annual) Dormant phase ( Nov- Feb) -0.036 0.22 -0.369 0.013 Active phase-1 ( Mar- Apr) 0.026 - 0.116 -0.265 -0.15 Active phase-2 ( May-Sept) -0.06 0.651* 0.017 0.22 Annual (whole year) 0.0021 0.115 -0.291 0.121 Temperature(Min) Dormant phase ( Nov- Feb) 0.083 0.465 -0.44 0.317 Active phase-1 ( Mar- Apr) 0.082 -0.251 0.012 -0.051 Active phase-2 ( May-Sept) 0.011 -0.003 -0.094 0. 4 11 * Annual (whole year) 0.086 0.162 -0.25 0.096 Temperature(Max) Dormant phase ( Nov- Feb) -0. 4 26* 0.04 -0.37 -0.139 Active phase-1 ( Mar- Apr) -0.256 -0.189 -0.288 -0.382 Active phase-2 ( May-Sept) -0. 6 86 * 0.18 0. 4 22 * 0.29 Annual (whole year) -0.33 -0.04 -0.314 -0.099 Precipitation Dormant phase ( Nov- Feb) 0.44 0.278 0.623* 0.315 Active phase-1 ( Mar- Apr) -0.355 0.006 -0.277 -0.114 Active phase-2 ( May-Sept) -0.66 0.095 -0.001 0.169 Annual (whole year) 0.772* 0.096 0.122 0.265 *Significant at 5% level
** Significant at 1% level

32. Conclusion The apple productivity showed overall increasing trend in Shimla district of Himachal Pradesh whereas in three regions Rampur, Rohru and Kotkhai showed decreasing trend while Mashobra showed an increasing trends. The days taken by different phenolog ical stages were observed earliest at Rampur, while in Kotkhai days took longer duration . The heat units accumulated by Rampur was higher as compared to other regions. The correlation between apple productivity and maximum temperature between may - sept ( active phase -2 ) may was shown to be significant and negative, indicating that an increase in maximum temperature during these stages had an impact on apple production. The correlation between apple productivity and precipitation sum between November -Feb (Dormancy Stage) was shown to be significant and positive. The annual mean temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation increases in Shimla district that showed climate variability. The range of temperature varies from 12.9-31.5 ℃ and precipitation 1328.8 mm.

33. Thank You