DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE TRENDS AND VARIABLES .pptx

Demographic Principles and Indices from the PARK for UG Medical Students

1. DEMOGRAPHY Dr. SARANYA. K. K.

2. DEMOGRAPHY – DERIVED FROM GREEK

3. PURPOSE OF STUDY OF THE POPULATION ? FOR ADMINISTRATORS TO TAKE POPULATION LEVEL DECISIONS

4. GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS

5. INDIAN POPULATION

6. AGENDA

7. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE

8. Demographic cycle 1. High stationary 2. Early expanding 3.Late expanding 4. Low stationary 5. Declining

9. For any Nation… Birth Rate High High Low Keeps Declining Death Rate High Low Low Reaches a Minimum Level

10. Phases of Demographic Cycle

11. Demographic Gap in Different Phases

12. Demographic Gap vs Population in Different Phases Phase Demographic Gap Population Stage 1 Stable Stable Stage 2 Starts Increasing, Maximum towards End Explosive Growth Stage 3 Starts Declining Increasing (But less rapidly when compared to Stage 2) Stage 4 Stable Stable Stage 5 Minimum, Reaches lowest point, Sometimes become Negative Declining

13. Population in Different Phases vs Name Phase Name of Phase Population Stage 1 High Stationary Stable Stage 2 Early Expanding Explosive Growth Stage 3 Late Expanding Increasing (But less rapidly when compared to Stage 2) Stage 4 Low Stationary Stable Stage 5 Declining Declining

14. Examples Stage Examples Remarks Stage 1 Rural Bangladesh, West Africa (Niger) Stage 2 Developing Countries DG starts increasing Stage 3 Developing Countries India DG starts declining Stage 4 Developed Countries (US, Canada, UK) Ideal Stage 5 Italy, Norway, Japan Birth Rate < Death Rate Much of the World DG – Demographic Gap

15. Demographic Trends

16. Demographic Processes / Variables Birth Rate Death Rate Immigration, Emigration Social Mobility across Different socioeconomic Classes

17. Annual Growth Rate Is Birth Rate-Death Rate/10 Slow Moderate Rapid Very Rapid Explosive Demographic Gap is Birth Rate – Death Rate < 0.5 % 0.5 – 1 % 1– 1.5 % 1.5 – 2 % > 2 %

18. Malthusian Model Annual Growth Rate Doubling Time 140 yrs 70 yrs 47 yrs – 50 yrs 35 yrs

19. Annual Growth Rate of India is 0.9 % asper 2024 census We have moved to moderate growth from rapid growth recently

20. Age Pyramid

21. Age pyramid X axis is population Y axis is age Either side is male/female Lower or base is always younger population The Apex is always older population

22. Post Reproductive Reproductive Pre-R eproductive AGE GROUPS

23. Shapes / Types Type A Triangular Type C Urn shaped Type B Bell Shaped

24. Height or length of pyramid correlates with the life expectancy of the population

25. Three Basic Types / Shapes

26. A TRIANGLE HIGH BR HIGH FERTILITY RATE RAPIDLY GROWING POPULATION B BELL HIGH BR LOW DR STABLE POPULATION C URN LOW BR STARTS CONSTRICTIONG FROM THE BOTTOM DECLINING POPULATION

27. Demographic Gift Higher Number of Economically Productive Population Happens in Stage 3 Decrease in Dependency Ratio

28. Constricting Age Pyramid

29. Demographic Liability Stage 5 Japan

30. Dependency Ratio

31. Age < 14 yrs & Age > 65 yrs X 100 ---------------------------------------- 15 – 65 yrs In India 48.6 % is Dependency Ratio Young Age Dependency is 38.9 % Old Age Dependency = 9.7 %

32. Examples In Africa dependency ratio is >100 % Means number of Dependant People more than the number of Independent people due to very high Birth Rate In Japan Old Age Dependency Ratio itself is almost 50% (In India, it’s 9.7 %)

33. 1.5 Phases of Demographic Cycle Each Nation goes through 2.Demographic gap 3. D emographic trends 4.Annual growth rate 5.Different types of Age Pyramids 6.Demographic GIFT/LIABILITY 7.Dependency Ratio

34. THANK YOU Dr Saranya K K