Demographic transition across the world-1.pptx

Demographic transition

1. Demographic Transition Maj Rehana Yasmin RN,RM, ,BSN, MCC,MPH CONAFPGMI ( NUMS)

2. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

3. DTM… The DTM describes a sequence of changes in the relationships between birth and death rates. The model was produced using changes in the natural increase in several countries in Western Europe and North America.

4. DTM … It explains the transformation of countries from having high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates. In developed countries this transition began in the 18th century and continues today. Less developed countries began the transition later and many are still in earlier stages of the model.

5. DTM… It suggests that the population growth rates for all countries can be divided into 4 stages.

6. S tage 1 High Stationary

7. Birth Rate Very High Death Rate Very High Natural Increase Population Steady

8. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

9. Stage 1 Birth Rate is high bc of: Lack of family planning High IMR: putting babies in the 'bank' Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets Death Rate is high bc of: High levels of disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food Lack of education

10. S tage 2 Early Expanding

11. Birth Rate – Very High Death Rate – Falling Rapidly Natural Increase – Very Rapid Increase

12. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

13. Stage Two Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine) Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling. Population begins to rise steadily.

14. Stage 2 Kenya

15. S tage 3 Late Expanding

16. Birth Rate: Falling rapidly Death Rate: Falling more slowly Natural Increase: Rapid increase Stage 3

17. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

18. Stage Three Reasons behind birth and death rate falling: Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising

19. Stage 3

20. S tage 4 Low Stationary

21. Birth Rate: Falling more slowly Death rate: Slight fall Natural Increase: Very slow increase

22. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

23. Stage 4

24. S tage 5 Declining Population

25. Birth Rate: Slight fall Death Rate: Stable Natural Increase: Gentle decrease

26. Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

27. Stage Five Stage 5

28. Impacts and Consequences The next several sets of tables summarizes the measures of impacts of the Transition Four Stages Impacts 1. Very Low Growth 2. High Growth 3. High but Slowing Growth 4. Low Growth Some now see a fifth stage 5. ??? Decline sets in ???? Factors That Change over the Stages Family Size Infant Mortality & Fertility Rates Family Economics Status of Kids Gender Roles Health Conditions Transportation Facilities Child Deaths Population Size Demographic Transition Egeo 312 30

29. PiDE WORKING PAPER 2006

30. PIDE WORKING PAPER 2006

31. Demographic Trap –Example Sudan(Failed State?-----Classic Case) It has developed far enough economically and socially to reduce mortality, but not far enough to quickly reduce fertility As a result, women on average have four children, double the two needed for replacement, and the population of 41million is growing by over 2,000 per day Under this pressure, Sudan— isbreakingdown .

32. It does not include the influences of migration It assumes that all countries will go through the same pattern There is no time scale Reasons for changing birth rates and death rates are very different in different countries Limitations of DTM

33. Limitations of the model The model was developed after studying the experiences of countries in Western Europe and North America . Conditions might be different for LEDCs in different parts of the world. The original model doesn't take into account the fact that some countries now have a declining population and a 5th stage.

34. Epidemiologic Transition A characteristic 1’ shift in the disease pattern of a population as mortality falls during the demographic transition: acute , infectious diseases are reduced, while chronic, degenerative diseases increase in prominence, causing a gradual 2. shift in the age pattern of mortality from younger to older ages

35. Demographic/ Epidemiologic Transition Framework (PELP)

36. Epidemiologic Transition Pestilence (infections) & Famines Infections & Nutritional Deficiencies Receding Pandemics Improved sanitation, Dec infections, Inc Diet (salt), inc Aging Developing Countries Degenerative & Man made Diseases Inc aging, Lifestyles related to high SES, (diet, activity, addiction) Countries in transition Delayed degenerative & emerging infections ( Hybristics ) The term ‘ hybris ’ refers to excessive self-confidence or a belief of invincibility.During the hybristic stage, morbidity and mortality are affected by man-made diseases, individual behaviours , and potentially destructive lifestyles. Reduced risk behaviors (Health promotion and prevention) New treatments Western countries

37. Examples Sweden – Historic Industrial Country Mexico – An Industrializing Country Demographic Transition Egeo 312 40

38. Demographic Transition Egeo 312 41 Developed Country Example

39. Demographic Transition Egeo 312 42 Developing Country Example

40. Demographic Transition Egeo 312 43 Example of how families adjust to lower infant mortality rates with lower fertility Result is a decline in CBR

41. Demographic Transition Egeo 312 44 Comparison of Development and Wealth to Population Growth Rates across Countries

42. Demographic Transition Egeo 312 45 Where is the World’s Population Growing? Declining?

43. Demographic Transition Egeo 312 46 Declining World Mortality Rates Map At the end of the second and the beginning of the third stages of the demographic transition, death rates declined. Where did they first decline and where did they last decline? Created by Ingolf Vogeler on 1 February 1996 http://www.uwec.edu/geography/Ivogeler/w111/dempop.htm

44. ONE LAST CONCEPT Demographic Transition Egeo 312 47

45. Dependency Ratio Ratio of non-working population to working age population Non-Workers are the young and aged retirees young are usually 15 yrs old and below retirees are usually 64 yrs old and above Demographic Transition Egeo 312 48

46. Demographic Transition Egeo 312 49 Pakistan’s High Dependency Ratio now and in the future based on lots of kids but few elderly. However note how the young population is expected to stabilize and elderly grow.

47. http://www.ag.unr.edu/Gustin/ERS210/210PopulationNotes.pdf

48. 2. Replacement rate, the number of births needed to keep a population at a stable level without immigration, requires a total fertility of 10. b. 2.1. c. 3.5. d. 5. 3. Which of the following countries is most likely to be showing the lowest natural increase rate? Afghanistan b. United States c. Japan d. Chile

49. 4. Countries with aging populations attempt to stimulate economic growth to lessen the effect of rising medical and retirement costs by cutting social security. b. encouraging increased birth rate. c. promoting immigration. d. promoting emigration of the elderly.

50. 5. Demographically, Great Britain experienced a ___________________ in the period from the late 1800s through WWII. population decline b. rising death rate c. population explosion d. rapid birth rate decline

51. 7. The medical revolution has been characterized by development of new inventions b. diffusion of medical practices c. increased agricultural productivity invention of new medicines 8. The average number of births women bear in their lifetime is total fertility rate b. crude birth rate c. natural increase rate d. crude death rate

52. 9. A decline in a country’s crude birth rate would result in an increase in the country’s doubling time b. natural increase rate c. total fertility rate d. life expectancy rate 10. The low rate of contraceptive use in Africa reflects the region’s low status of women b. improving education of women rapid diffusion d. A and B

53. Skip this Slide for Now Why is population growing so fast? Which areas are growing fastest? What effects has this growth had on social and ecological systems?

54. Case Study of Population Change Over Time - DTM and Pyramids for UK (1780 - present)