DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY

This theory throws light on changes in birth and death rate and consequently on the growth rate of population. The relationship between birth and death rate changes with economic development and a country has to pass through different stages of population growth. This theory depicts the four stages of demographic transition that a country has to pass.

1. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY Dr. BEEJATA DAS ASSISTANT PROFESSOR DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY S.P.P. COLLEGE, NAMTI, SIVASAGAR, ASSAM, INDIA

2. The Demographic Transition Theory was put forwarded by W. Thompson and F.W. Notestein . Aim of the Theory This theory throws light on changes in birth rate and death rate and consequently on the growth rate of population. The relationship between birth rate and death rate changes with economic development and a country has to pass through different stages of population growth.

3. STAGES OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION 1 st STAGE: PRE- MODERN SOCIETY 2 nd STAGE: URBANISING/ INDUSTRIALIZING SOCIETY 3 rd STAGE: MATURE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY 4 th STAGE: POST- INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY

4. 1 st STAGE: PRE- MODERN SOCIETY This stage occurs in agrarian societies. About 200- 250 years ago all the countries of the world were passing through this stage. In this stage the birth rate and death rate are high and roughly in balance.

5. Characteristics of 1 st Stage a. Population density is low or moderate. b. General productivity is low. c. Life expectancy is low. d. Development of non- agricultural sector is at its infancy stage. e. Masses are generally Illiterate. f. Lack of Technological know- how.

6. 2 nd STAGE: URBANISING/ INDUSTRIALIZING SOCIETY This stage represents a developing country where the death rates drop rapidly due to improvement in food supply and sanitation which increase life span and reduce disease. Afghanistan is currently in this stage.

7. Characteristics of 2 nd Stage a. Numerous improvements in public health reduce mortality. b. Increase in female literacy.

8. 3 rd STAGE: MATURE INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY This stage consists of declining birth rate. Mexico’s population is currently at this stage.

9. Factors that led to decline in birth rate a. Access to contraception. b. Increase in wages. c. Urbanization. d. A reduction in subsistence agriculture. e. An increase in the status and education of women.

10. 4 th STAGE: POST- INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY In this stage, both the birth and death rates are low. The population is either stable or grows very slowly . North America, Europe, Japan, Australia, New Z ealand are supposed to reach this stage.

11. Characteristics of 4 th Stage a. Death rate may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increase in lifestyle diseases or low exercise levels. b . Birth rate is low because people have more opportunities to choose if they want children. c . The population is highly urbanised . d . The literacy levels are high. e. The degree of labour specialization is also high.

12. CRITICISM 1. It must be remembered that Demographic Transition Model is only a model and can not necessarily predict the future. It makes no comment on change in population due to migration . 2. This theory assumes that population changes are induced by industrial changes and increased wealth, without taking into account the role of social change in determining birth rate such as the education of women.