Demography Lecture.pptx

The term “Demography” is the statistical and mathematical study of the human population's size, composition, and spatial distribution and of changes over time in these aspects through the operation of five fertility processes: mortality, marriage, migration, and social mobility.
Usually, the demographic data are drawn from various sources such as:
National censuses,
Civil registration systems,
and sample surveys.

1. DEMOGRAPHY Professor Dr. AB Rajar, MBBS, Dip-Diab, MPH, Ph.D. CPHE Director of Research and Innovative Center [IBN-E-SINA UNIVERSITY] 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 1

2. LEARNING OBJECTIVES After completing this module, the participants would be able to: Understand the basics of demography Explain in detail the demographic process & cycle /stages. Describe the basic measures of fertility and mortality. Discuss the demographic transition and population pyramid Enlist the population profile of Pakistan in the context of demographic features. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 2

3. INTRODUCTION The term “ Demography ” is the statistical and mathematical study of the human population's size , composition , and spatial distribution and of changes over time in these aspects through the operation of five fertility processes: mortality, marriage, migration , and social mobility . Usually, the demographic data are drawn from various sources such as: National censuses, Civil registration systems, and sample surveys. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 3

4. INTRODUCTION It comprises two words; “ Demos " means people, and “ Graphos ” means drawing. The study of populations, especially regarding size and density , fertility , mortality , growth , age distribution , migration , and vital statistics and the integration of all these with social and economic conditions. (Last) 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 4

5. TYPES OF DEMOGRAPHY 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 5

6. Age Sex     Education level Income Households, family Urbanization Public utilities Information on the home and it’s facilities Ethnicity Vital statistics Births ( natality ) Fertility Deaths (mortality) Reproduction Marital status (marriage, divorce) Migration Emigration Commuters Immigration Status of population Numerical changes of Population 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 6

7. DEFINITION OF DEMOGRAPHY Scientific study of human populations and changes within them Mainly Concerned Size of populations Distribution of populations Composition (structure) of populations Changes (increase or decrease in population size and its composition) 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 7

8. TERM DEFINITION Size: Size is the total number of persons in that area. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 8

9. TERM DEFINITION STRUCTURE : Structure is the population distribution among its age and sex groupings. E.g., How many persons are below five and above 40 years? How many females are in the population? 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 9

10. TERM DEFINITION DISTRIBUTION : Distribution of people means the arrangement of people in space at a given time, i.e., Rural %age Urban %age 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 10

11. TERM DEFINITION CHANGE : It is the growth or decline of the total population or one of its structural units. Is the population increasing or decreasing ? 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 11

12. IMPORTANT DEFINITION Fertility: - Actual reproductive performance of a women Fecundity:- Physiological capabilities of women to reproduce In Migration (IM):- Number of persons moving into the area for permanent residence, i.e., Immigration / In Migration (IM) Out Migration (OM):- Number of persons moving out of the area to elsewhere, i.e., Emigration / Out Migration (OM) 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 12

13. IMPORTANT DEFINITION Net Migration = In Migration-Out Migration Urbanization: - Occurs due to the migration of rural population into urban centers resulting in increasing the urban population and growth of cities Population growth rate :- rate at which a given population is expected to increase Closed Population :- A population with no migratory flow either in or out so that changes in population size occur only through births and deaths 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 13

14. IMPORTANT DEFINITION Closed Population :- A population with no migratory flow either in or out so that changes in population size occur only through births and deaths. Reasons for Migration: Push Factors:- Widespread unemployment Lack of farmland War, law & order situation Political instability Religious harassment, etc. Pull Factors:- Booming economy Favorable immigration laws, Free agricultural land, etc. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 14

15. IMPORTANT DEFINITION REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY:- Two births to a couple during their reproductive life, just enough to replace them In developed countries, a total fertility rate (TFR) of about 2.1 is considered to be a replacement level 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 15

16. IMPORTANT DEFINITION MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH:- Tendency of a population to continue to grow beyond the time when replacement level fertility has been achieved Characteristic of population growth - sharp decline in births does not bring in an immediate reduction in natural increase 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 16

17. IMPORTANT DEFINITION POPULATION DOUBLING TIME:- Time that would take for a population to double in size 1% per year increase would cause the population to double in about 70 years If the population is increasing at 3% per year, then the doubling time will be 70 ÷ 3 = 23.3 years 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 17

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19. Demographic process/components/factors influencing Population growth . 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 19

20. FERTILITY/NATALITY: Fertility is defined as the ability of a man or a woman to cause the conception of a child. MORTALITY: It means death. It is a vital event and measured by CDR i.e. Basic mortality measure is the crude death rate. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 20

21. MIGRATION: Migration means mobility from or within the country. It affects the population of an area or country but not the whole world. MARRIAGE : Marriage age is 18 years on average. If it will be 21 years, the population will decrease by 25% because the childbearing duration of females decreases. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 21

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23. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE(STAGE) First Stage :-High Stationary Second Stage :-Early Expanding Third Stage :-Late Expanding Forth Stage :- Low Stationary Fifth Stage :-Decline 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 23

24. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE(STAGE ) 1 st Stage :- (High stationery) ( BR & DR ) High birth rate and high death rate population remain unchanged. 2 nd Stage :- (Early Expanding) Birth rate remained unchanged, and the high death rate began to decline 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 24

25. DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE(STAGE ) 3 rd Stage:- (Late Expanding) Birth rate tends to fall , and high death rate still declines further Population continues to grow because birth exceeds the death 4 th Stage (Low stationary): This stage is characterized by a low birth rate & low death rate. Stability in the population. 5 th Stage (Declining) : In the declining stage birth rate is lower than the death rate. Fall in population 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 25

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27. POPULATION DYNAMICS The dynamics of change in the total population can be understood with the help of the basic demographic equation Pt 1 = Pt +(B-D)+(IM-OM) Pt 1 = Future Population Pt = Present Population (B-D) =Birth-Death (IM-OM) =In-migration-Out Migration 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 27

28. BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION Pt 1 = Pt +(B-D)+(IM-OM) Number of live Births to mothers living in the area (B) Number of Deaths of residents (D) Number of persons moving into the area for permanent residence, i.e. Immigration / In Migration (IM) Number of persons moving out of the area to elsewhere i.e., Emigration / Out Migration (OM) 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 28

29. BASIC DEMOGRAPHIC EQUATION Natural Increase (B-D):- surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths Net Migration (IM-OM): - N et effect of immigration and emigration on an area’s population (increase or decrease) POPULATION GROWTH = Natural Increase (B-D) + Net Migration (IM-OM) 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 29

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31. CRUDE BIRTH RATE: It is the most straightforward measure of fertility. So-called crude because the denominator includes a population not “at risk” of giving birth (i.e., men and women of all ages). CBR = 1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 31

32. GFR is a refined measure over CBR because it only includes women of reproductive age. GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (GFR). GFR = 1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 32

33. Number of live birth in a year to 1000 women in any age-specific group. It is adjusted for age and determines the fertility rate of women in each age group. AGE- SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR). ASFR = 1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 33

34. TFR is defined as the average number of children a woman would have if she were to pass through her reproductive years bearing children at the same rates as the woman now in each age group. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR). TFR = Sum of ASFRs x 5 ( because ASFR is calculated in 5 years age intervals). 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 34

35. GRR is the average number of girls born to women if she experiences the current fertility pattern throughout their reproductive span (15-44 or 49 years), assuming no mortality. GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE (GRR). GRR =   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 35

36. NRR is the number of daughters a newborn girl will bear during her lifetime assuming fixed age-specific fertility and mortality rates. NRR is a demographic indicator . NRR of 1 is equivalent to attaining approximately 2-child norm. NRR less than 1 ,then reproductive performance of population is said to be below replacement level. Demographers are of the view that the goal of NRR =1 can be achieved only if at least 60% of the eligible couples are effectively practicing family planning. NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR). 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 36

37. CHILD WOMEN RATIO (CWR). This ratio is used where birth registration statistics either do not exist or are inadequate. It is estimated through data derived from censuses. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 37

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39. MORTALITY Mortality means death. Mortality is a relationship of death cases to the whole population. Two basic types of mortality : 1. General (crude) mortality rate or death rate. 2. Specific mortality rates. Age and sex-related (special rates: infant mortality and fetal losses) Cause related(diseases, injuries, suicide, homicide) Life expectancy(sex and age-related ) 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 39

40. CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR) Crude death rate(or mortality rate) is the number of death cases in a year per 1000 of the population. Crude Death/Mortality Rate = 1000 Calculation of example country’s CDR: No of death cases = 135,000 and the mid-year population = 10,000,000   CDR = = 0.0135 1000 = 13.5 deaths/1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 40

41. AGE AND SEX-RELATED MORTALITY RATE: CMRs can be computed for both genders and age groups. The age group under 1 year is separately treated (the infant mortality). Age Specific Death Rate:   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 41

42. INFANT MORTALITY RATE: It is the number of deaths of infants under one year (365 days) old in a given year per 1,000 live births that occurred in the same year. Age Specific Death Rate : 1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 42

43. INFANT MORTALITY RATE This IMR rate is divided up for 4 subgroups and often used as an indicator of the level of health in a country. Perinatal Mortality within 24 hrs. Post natal Mortality within first week of life. Neonatal mortality, death occurring at 7 -27 days of life. Post neonatal mortality, death occurring between 28 to 365 days of life. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 43

44. PERINATAL MORTALITY RATE: Perinatal mortality rate: Separated perinatal mortality (first 24 hours) does not include stillbirths: Perinatal Mortality Rate : 1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 44

45. POSTNATAL MORTALITY RATE: It is the death of infants in between 1-6 days of life. Postnatal Mortality Rate: 1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 45

46. NEONATAL MORTALITY RATE: It is the number of infants died between 7 – 27 days of life in a year from the total number of infants born in the same year. Neonatal Mortality Rate : 1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 46

47. POST NEONATAL MORTALITY RATE: It is the number of infants who die between 28 – 365 days of life in a year from the total number of infants born in the same year. Neonatal Mortality Rate : 1000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 47

48. MATERNAL MORTALITY Special case of sex-related mortality. Represents death cases of women who die during pregnancy and childbirth inclusive the first 42 days after the delivery(WHO definition). The number per year is relatively small (developed countries), thus maternal mortality rate is computed per 100,000 live births. ~ 11/100,000 in the developed countries. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 48

49. MATERNAL MORTALITY MMR is the number of women dying in pregnancy and childbirth per 1000 live births. It measures the risk of women dying while pregnant. MMR = x 10,0000   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 49

50. CAUSE RELATED MORTALITY Demography is concerned only with Diseases Motor Vehicle Accidents, Suicide (homicide). 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 50

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52. POPULATION PYRAMID It is a graphic representation of the population of an area or a country in terms of its composition by age and sex at a point in time. It provides a demographic statement of the current age and sex distribution of a population. Males on the left side and females on the right side . Children form the pyramid’s base , while the elderly form the tip . 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 52

53. POPULATION PYRAMID TYPES USES: Male to female ratio. Population changes. Dependency Ratio can be calculated. Triangular: Broad-based, Pakistan Beehive: Broad-centered Singapore Rectangular: Stationary, United Kingdom 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 53

54. DEPENDENCY RATIO. It is the ratio of population who are economically not active to those who are economically active. Dependency Ratio = x 100. Dependency Ratio = x 100. Dependency ratio of Pakistan = 66%   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 54

55. SEX RATIO The overall sex ratio all over the world except India is simply the ratio of males to females in the population. It is usually expressed as the number of males per 100 females. Sex Ratio = x 100 In India,sex ratio is female to male ratio (number of females per 100 males)   5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 55

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57. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION Moving from a high birth rate and high death rate to a low birth rate and a low death rate is called “ Demographic Transition .” First stage (High fertility & mortality) is known as the old balance. Second (Low fertility & mortality) is a new balance. I Between these two is a stage of imbalance in which there is high fertility and low mortality. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 57

58. DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION. OLD BALANCE {HF & HM}. In the old balance, since death has to be replaced by births, a large number of births are required to compensate for a large number of death. NEW BALANCE {LF & LM}. It represents the improved condition of human efficiency and health with few deaths. Production of agricultural and industrial commodities is greater and the lifestyle is more comfortable. IMBALANCE {LM & HF}. It is the natural increase stage that leads to population explosion. This growth is helpful for under-populated nations, which need more manpower, expanding market, and more significant military potential. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 58

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60. POPULATION MOMENTUM It is defined as the ratio of the size of the population at that new equilibrium level to the size of the initial population. It is a typical consequence of the demographic transition. Even if a high-fertility, high-growth population experiences an immediate drop in fertility to  replacement rate , that population will continue to grow for several decades. Momentum = mv (mass x velocity). Population Momentum = (Population x Growth rate). Population momentum of Pakistan = 191 x 1.49 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 60

61. POPULATION MOMENTUM It means the more significant the growth rate; the greater the population and the difficulty to stop population momentum. If a country’s population is reduced by abruptly controlling a high birth rate to replacement levels, the population will continue to grow for many years. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 61

62. POPULATION MOMENTUM Example: If Pakistan’s fertility declines to a replacement level, even then the population of Pakistan will continue to grow for 40 years. Total fertility rate of Pak is 3.2, which means Pakistani women on average produce 3 to 4 children. If out of these 4, two children are daughters; these 2 girls produce 4 children each. So the population has built up because potential mothers have already been born. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 62

63. POPULATION DOUBLING TIME (PDT) It is an approximate time during which population of a country will be approximately doubled. If population of a country is growing at 1% per year, it will double in about 70 years. So we can get the population doubling time of any population by this 70,divided by growth rate. Thus a population growing at 2% per year will double (70/2) in 35 years. PDT = 70/Growth rate PDT of Pakistan = 70/1.49 = 47 years. PDT of World = 70/1.1 = 63 years almost. 5/18/2023 Professor Dr AB Rajar 63

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