desert_living_presentation_canada_climate.pptx

climate change canada

1. CANADA Climate and Societal Change

2. FACTS • Canada is warming at 2x the global rate. [7] • The Arctic is warming at 3-4x the global rate. [7] *Due to snow covered landmass, loss of snow/ice, Albedo effect, etc.

3. CANADA

4. At the Equator: Intense solar heat causes the air to warm up, expand, and rise. This powerful convection pushes the "ceiling" of the troposphere (called the tropopause) very high, up to 18-20 km. At the Poles: The air is extremely cold and dense. This causes it to sink and contract, pulling the "ceiling" of the troposphere much lower, down to about 6 km. * Increased cloud cover in the Arctic further enhances warming by trapping heat near the surface.

5. A figure showing historical observations of annual mean surface temperature with Canada and the Canadian Arctic well above the global average. (Environment Canada Climate Research Division)

6. U.S.A. Pacific Ocean Arctic Ocean Atlantic Ocean Prairies OIL SANDS

7. #1 - Softwood Lumber Exporter #1 - Potash Producer (potassium-rich minerals) #2 - Uranium Producer #2 - Niobium Producer #3 - Diamonds Producer #4 - Metallurgical Coal Exporter #4 - Gold Producer #4 - Aluminum Producer #4 - Cobalt Producer #4 - Proven Oil Reserves #4 - Platinum Producer #4 - Metallurgical Coal Exporter #5 - Natural Gas Producer * Rare Earth Elements (REEs) One of the world's largest reserves

8. Climate-fuelled extreme heat is causing rising death rates and health issues across Canada A study in Nature found that between 1981 and 2018, 37 per cent of heat-related deaths globally were attributable to climate change (Vicedo-Cabrera et al. 2021). Health risks from extreme heat include cardiovascular events, respiratory conditions, kidney disease, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and mental health impacts such as increased anxiety, depression, and aggressive behavior (Bell et. al 2024). Elevated death rates have been documented during and following heat waves in Canada (Government of Canada 2024). The 2021 heat wave caused an estimated 619 heat-related deaths , making it the deadliest disaster in B.C.’s recorded history (BC Coroners Service 2022). Our research shows that without action on adaptation and health system preparation, B.C. could average 1,370 heat-related deaths per year by 2030 (Beugin et al. 2023). Scientists found that the 2021 B.C. heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change (Philip et al. 2022). A 2024 study concluded that elevated summer temperatures in Québec are linked to 470 deaths, 225 hospitalizations, 36,000 emergency room visits, 7,200 ambulance transports, and 15,000 calls to Info-Santé every year . With climate change, the number of heat-related illnesses and deaths could double or even quadruple in the province by 2050 (Boudreault et al. 2024).

9. Governments must act immediately to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and limit global warming , while adapting and preparing for the health and safety risks from extreme heat.

10. Home Cooling Policies Can Combat Health Impacts of Extreme Heat, But Should Be Paired with Strategies to Reduce Unintended Consequences Overview Local governments are developing law and policy solutions to help protect individuals from extreme heat at home. This is particularly important as extreme heat at home can have harmful effects for a wide range of populations, including workers that have been exposed to extreme heat at work, pregnant people, young people, aging populations, and people with certain medical conditions. *Article makes comparison to Arizona

11. Future climate change will be driven primarily by human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). - Government of Canada: Climate Changing Report “There are, however, uncertainties that have to be considered when using model projections. These uncertainties stem from the fact that models cannot simulate all physical processes exactly (and therefore must make approximations), and from internal variability in both the simulated and the real climate system. The uncertainty due to approximations of physical processes can be reduced, in principle, and models continue to improve in this regard. However, it is impossible to reduce the uncertainty from internal variability that is superimposed on the underlying forced climate change. In addition, there is uncertainty about what future climate forcing (e.g., future GHG emissions) will be, which is accounted for by making projections with a range of forcing scenarios.” *The word uncertainty shows up 145 times in this report. * Earth system models have some features in common with global weather-prediction models (used to make daily weather forecasts) but do not depend on the use of observations as inputs and typically operate at somewhat lower spatial resolution

12. Canada's Core Paradox Canada promotes an international image of climate leadership but it's necessary economic transition in response to climate change is hampered by federal-provincial conflicts revealing deep national problems.

13. "Green" Policy Creates Conflict A Suite of Controversial Federal Policies: Bill C-69 ( Impact Assessment Act ): Dubbed the "No More Pipelines Act." [10] The Supreme Court found it largely unconstitutional in Oct. 2023, citing federal overreach. [10, 8] Proposed Oil & Gas Emissions Cap: Criticized by industry and provinces as a "production cap" that could lead to significant GDP and job losses. Clean Electricity Regulations (CER): Opposed by provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan as being an unrealistic timeline that will block development and raise costs. Bill C-48 (Oil Tanker Moratorium Act): Directly blocks northern B.C. export routes for oil, adding another barrier to new projects.

14. Permafrost Up to 50% of Canada’s landmass is situated on permafrost , and scientists estimate that the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost may hold up to 1.7 trillion tonnes of organic carbon (Bush and Lemmen 2019) Warmer temperatures and seasonal changes cause snow and ice to melt quickly, resulting in larger spring run-off events. Water can permeate the ground and accelerate the thaw of permafrost because water is a good conductor of temperature, unlike ice or frozen soil (Vincent et al. 2017) Thawing permafrost creates an unstable layer that can cause landslides, further exposing deeper layers of permafrost to the atmosphere . In this way, permafrost thaw is a process that cannot easily be reversed: while the upper surface, or active layer, may refreeze seasonally, current trajectories of global warming are such that it is unlikely that thawed ground willfully refreeze and become permafrost again during this geological epoch (Vincent et al. 2017)

15. Permafrost Thawing Shifting ground: unsettled building foundations, slumping, and associated damage t oa range of surfaces including roads, railways, pipelines , transmission lines, and airstrips. Infrastructure such as houses and utilities, however, also require constant maintenance and repair due to the seasonal freeze/thaw cycle of the active layer (Allard et al. 2012, Baird and Podlasly 2020, Fortier et al. 2011) Loss of permafrost leads to a corresponding loss of lichen , which needs drier conditions. They consider this to be a highly significant impact, and one that risks a further decline in caribou numbers in their area, as lichen is one of the most important sources of forage for caribou. Lichen insulates the permafrost and reflects light energy (because it is typically white). As permafrost thaws, trees have been recorded as growing bigger, and the resulting shade inhibits lichen growth (Downing and Cuerrier 2011; Shah 2019). Thawing of land has had a direct impact on reducing fish habitat. The draining of small lakes and ponds affects waterfowl populations.

16. All of this increases vulnerability to fires… Canada on average gets 5,000 to 6,000 wildfires a year burning 5.2 million acres a year. And it seems to be getting worse every year .

17. 2025

18. Zombie Fires Wildfires that survive through winter by smoldering underground in peat and organic soils, then reignite in the spring. Becoming more frequent and concerning due to climate change, which causes warmer and drier conditions that dry out peat soils. These fires are dangerous because they are difficult to track, can reignite unpredictably, and can release toxic gases and large amounts of stored carbon.

19. Why they are a growing concern: Peat forms in places that are very cold or very wet. Peat is formed when organic matter piles up faster than is decomposes. Since peat lands are so wet and cold not much risk of catching fire but with climate change, the recent heat yields dryer peat which causes more fire, which causes more heat… Burning deeper layers. They release poisonous gases and are hard to track underground until they ignite dry surface soil.

20. When plants die in peatland the carbon they’ve absorbed over their lifetime gets locked inside the peat. Peatlands are one of the planets largest carbon stores. Peatland is 3% of the earth’s land but 25% of its carbon store. Which means that this carbon releasing into the atmosphere is a risk that’s getting worse

21. Santoso et. al (2021) The application of water, or water mixed with suppressants, to combat wildfires is one of the most common firefighting methods but is rarely studied for smouldering peat wildfire, which is the largest type of fire worldwide in term of fuel consumption . We performed experiments by spraying suppressant to the top of a burning peat sample inside a reactor. A plant-based wetting agent suppressant was mixed with water at three concentrations: 0% (pure water), 1% (low concentration), and 5% (high concentration), and delivered with varying flowrates. The results showed that suppression time decreased non-linearly with flow rate. The average suppression time for the low-concentration solution was 39% lower than with just water, while the high-concentration solution reduced suppression time by 26%. The volume of fluid that contributes to the suppression of peat in our experiments is fairly constant at 5.7 ± 2.1 L kg -1 peat despite changes in flow rate and suppressant concentration. This constant volume suggests that suppression time is the duration needed to flood the peat layer and that the suppressant acts thermally and not chemically. The results provide a better understanding of the suppression mechanism of peat fires and can improve firefighting and mitigation strategies. *They are also very difficult to extinguish. W ater can't easily penetrate the smoldering peat.

22. The Economic Costs 50% of projected GDP growth will be lost to these damages. Some Key Infrastructure Risks: Permafrost Thaw: $200M/year in road damage. Flooding: $300M/year by mid-century. Electrical Grid: $1B+/year in damages. All is bad but it seems there may be some opportunity to expand corn fields further North because of the heat. So that, at least, is positive.

23. Cancelled Pipelines: Energy East: Cancelled (2017) after years of regulatory delays and provincial (Quebec) opposition. Northern Gateway: Cancelled (2016) after a Federal Court appeal and the new government's Bill C-48 tanker ban. Keystone XL: Cancelled (2021) after over a decade of political and legal battles. Consequences: The "WCS Differential": Lack of export capacity forces Canadian oil to sell at a steep discount, costing the economy billions. Chilled Investment: International investors (Shell, Statoil, etc.) divested from the oil sands, citing regulatory uncertainty. Increased Reliance on Rail: A more expensive and less efficient mode of transport.

24. All of this means that: if we continue these policies, there will be no way for Canada to pay for its future. Green Mandate Starts

25. References Bank of Canada. (2025, June 13). Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks 2024 . Clean Energy Canada. (2021, June 17). New Reality: An assessment of economic growth from Canada's climate plan . (via Canada.ca) EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration). (2024, May 30). Country Analysis Brief: Canada . Government of Canada. (2023, November 27). Canada's National Adaptation Strategy . Canadian Climate Institute. (2024). The Costs of Climate Change . Canadian Climate Institute. (2024, July 23). Climate change and extreme heat waves in Canada . Government of Canada. (2022, March). Canada's Changing Climate Report in Light of the Latest Global Science Assessment . Office of the Auditor General of Canada (OAG). (2021, November). The climate crisis . Natural Resources Canada. (2025, July 16). Crude Oil Industry Overview . Supreme Court of Canada. (2023, October 13). Reference re Impact Assessment Act . (via media reports/summaries). https://climateinstitute.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Impacts-permafrost-thaw-Climate-Institute-Firelight-Report.pdf Map: Environment Canada, Atmospheric Environment Service, Climate Research Branch, 1998. Climate Trends and Variations Bulletin for Canada, Ottawa Zombie fire infographic: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118529539.ch2 ( Rein and Burns , 2013)