Designing for What If (instead of as if) - Morgenbooster

Design, as a craft, has evolved. It has shifted from focusing solely on shapes and colors to encompassing a mindset and methodology that we can leverage to create anything – from meaningful digital solutions to societal change.

1. Designing
for what if
Instead of
as is

2. Bo Steinicke
Client Innovation Lead
Mathias Spangby O’Neill
Service Designer

3. Close your eyes

4. How do you
imagine we solve
climate crisis?

9. The future is not a fixed
destination

10. The world is ever changing
but most people don't actively
consider how we can be part of
that change.

12. Before jumping to the future
Lets start with the present

13. ​
Think
What’s the
problem really?
​
Create
Explore, prototype,
test, learn.
​
Build
Develop to
evolve
Proof
by design

14. ​
Design
Car design matters
​
Economy
Increasing climate
awareness
​
Experience
Interest in self-
driving vehicles

15. Design Thinking inspires to create …
reactive solutions for the world today

16. Futures Thinking inspires to…
proactively explore possible, probable and
preferred futures

17. ​
Design
Car design matters
​
Economy
Increasing climate
awareness
​
Experience
Interest in self-
driving vehicles

18. ​
Design
What if car design
doesn't matter?
​
Economy
What if cars are free,
but we are the product?
​
Experience
What if we design
for a darker world?

19. The future
is abstract
to work with

20. Design thinking

21. Futures Thinking
The desired future we want to design for!
Futures Thinking

22. Futures Design

23. The Futures Sprint
​
Introducing

24. ​
Scan signals
Trends and signals
What pops up? What changes?
What is maintained?
​
Identify patterns
Uncertainties and polarities
What patterns are present in the
signals? Which change dynamics are
worth investigating?
​
Vision scenarios
Scenario development
​
How might this future manifest
itself? What narrative can be used
to describe this future?
​
Build concepts
Design fiction
​
How can we influence this future?
How can we prototype this future?
​
Overview
​
The steps

25. ​
The process
​
Where do you start?
​
1-2 Years
Tactics
​
2-5 years
Strategy
​
5-10 years
Vision
​
10+ years
Disruption and
development
Start here
Amount of data, evidence and degree of certainty
​
Today
We are here

26. ​
The process
​
Start today
Small implementation Large project

27. Scan
Trends and signals
​
Step 1

28. We cannot predict the
future, but we can look at
change happening today

29. 20242014

30. We look for signals that
indicate change and challenge
the status quo.
​
Signal Spotting

31. Every fift Should TikTok be illegal?Increase among Danes who invest in funds Protest against drag queens The right-wing joins together on a resolution proposal
against the right to legal gender reassignment for children Sweden's green energy plan will use nuclear power Quitting-wave and digital nomads
More people pull the plug on the
labor market without a plan BYoung people who were born and
raised in Denmark have their
application for Danish citizenship
rejected Reebok jumps into digital
wearable game  Post-secondary schools must refer to students as "boys, girls
and non-binary"
Every sixth student uses ChatGPTNordicWaste was reported to the police
Signals
What is an observation?

32. Spotting signals
​
Expert panels and industry research
​
Your customers
​
The news
​
Influencers and social media
​
Magazines
​
TV/Radio/Podcasts
​
Everyday conversations
​
Art and popular media
​
Conferences and events (Morning boosters)

33. ​
Political
​​
Economic
​​
Technology
​​
Legal
​
P
​
E
​
L
​
Environment
​​
S
​
Social
​​
T
​
E

34. Identify
Patterns
​
Step 2

35. Patterns give us an idea of what
will be important in the future

37. Trends point to
alternative futures
​

Signals help us define and visualise trends that
tell us something about where we are heading.
Trend
A movement or
development in time
Signal
News that
interests you
Signal
News that
interests you
Signal
News that
interests you

38. Making eggs from male cells
Generation Z is the most queer
generation to date
Platonic Ccoparenting SpeedmeetingAlternative
family structures
Silent cafes in Tokyo
The first “right to
disconnect” in FranceDigital
Unplugging
Phones not allowed
in classes
Jobs linked to fossil energy
are gradually disappearing.
Decentralised energy systems
River is legally a personEnergy
Infrastructure

39. We look for the different possible
outcomes in our trends. This allows
us to shape different scenarios.

40. Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Trend
OutcomeOutcome

41. Digital detox therapist
Techation
Low tech presence
Digital
Unplugging
Digital rehabTech taboo

42. Digital
Unplugging
Digital rehabTech taboo

43. ​
What possible
futures are exciting
to explore?
Relevant FuturisticDon’ Too ba
UNCERTAINTY
IMPACT

44. Vision
Scenario
development
​
Step 3

45. We can inspire new solutions
by seeing different futures and worlds
in different dimensions

46. What
is a future
scenario?

47. A B
DC
Outcome 1.1 Outcome 1.2
Outcome 2.1
Outcome 2.2
Trend 1
Trend 2
Two and two
trends together
creates a matrix
​

Each cell represents a unique future scenario.

48. Silent servants
I own my care
Friendly robots
I share my careCar ownership
Automation

49. Silent servantsFriendly robots
I own my car
I share my car

50. Build
Concepts
​
Step 4

51. We can articulate our role in the
future by materialising the future in
an artefact

54. Desired future
Possible future
Likely future
Possible future
Possible future
Possible future

55. Experimenting
With a futures
sprint format
​
Case Forca

56. PBU
Pension company for
Educators and teachers
PKA
Pension company for
Healthcare workers
Lærenes Pension
Pension company for
School teachers

59. ​
Forca & Futures Thinking
•Where do we want to
go ourselves?
•In which context do we
have to navigate?
•What will the pension
of the future look like?
•What do the members
of the future look like?

60. ​
Why Futures?
Forca is
already in
the business
of future

61. ​
The Ambition
Create a format that makes it
possible to have structured
conversations about the future

62. To work wi ​
How might we?
•Avoid future fluffiness
•Avoid cognitive overload
•Increase tangibility
•Increase playfulness
We agreed that it was an experiment

63. ​
So, how did we go about it?

64. ​
-
​
-
​
2
​
2
​
5

65. ​
2
​
2
​
5
•Insights
•Planning
•Signals
•Trends
•Scenarios & ideas
•Prototypes
•Presentation
•Iteration
•Next step
Preparation Sprint Presentation

66. Workshop
Futures Thinking
​
7 Participants from Forca
​
4 Participants from 1508
​
2 days condensed sprint

67. Safety by
numbers

68. ​
Homework

69. ​
Homework

70. ​
Political
​​
Economic
​​
Technology
​​
Legal
​
P
​
E
​
L
​
Environment
​​
S
​
Social
​​
T
​
E

71. Signals
What's in our future?Urbanization
Work balance and well-beingPolarisation in echo chambers Private employees prioritize their finances diff Danes are having fewer children The richest get richer Too few employees in the health sector Lack of skilled labour Boom in lifestyle medicine Uneven distribution of the population Retirees want to work too More people get private health insurances My digital identity
Digital vulnerabilityVirtual vs physical world Trust in authorities is decreasing Alternative bottom lines Extreme weather Environmental legislation Young people can't get into the housing market Fewer pay tax, more receive public benefits
Life expectancy is increasingWorkers mentality Lifelong learning Democracy fatigue
Trust in authorities is decreasing
Alternative bottom lines
Workers mentality
My digital identity

72. Ekstrem 1 Ekstrem 2 Ekstrem 4 Ekstrem 5 Ekstrem 6 Ekstrem 7 Ekstrem 8 Ekstrem 9 Ekstrem 11 Trust in authorities is decreasing
Alternative bottom lines
Workers mentality
My digital identity

73. Society's bottom line The individual's bottom line
Collective mindset Individual mindset
High tech Low tech
Direct democracy Regulation
Trust is authorities decreasing
Alternative bottom lines
Workers mentality
My digital identity

74. Direct
Democracy
Regulation
Collective mindset
Individual mindset
High tech Low tech
Society's bottom line
The individual's bottom line

75. Direct
Democracy
Regulation
Collective mindset
Individual mindset
High tech Low tech
Society's bottom line
The individual's bottom line

76. Direct
Democracy
Regulation
Collective mindset
Individual mindset
High tech Low tech
Society's bottom line
The individual's bottom line

77. Demokrati Regulering High tech Low tech Lifetime
pension
Increased
retirement age
Society's bottom line
The individual's bottom line
High tech Low tech
Collective mindset
Individual mindset

78. High tech Low tech
High tech
Low tech
Lifetime
pension
Increased
retirement age
Collective mindset
Individual mindset

79. High tech Low tech
Direct
Democracy
Regulation
Society's bottom line
The individual's bottom line
Collective mindset
Individual mindset

80. Direct
Democracy
Regulation
Society's bottom line
The individual's bottom line
Collective
Individual
High tech Low tech
My idea,
not MitID
Our ID!
No ID!
Good idea!
Voice of the People,
Strength of Community
With law you should
control the land
The contract
of liberty
The declarations
of freedom!
1B 2B2A1A
1C 1D 2C 2D

81. My idea,
not MitID
Voice of the People,
Strength of Community
Scenario 1A Scenario 2C

82. Voice of the People, Strength of Community
The cooperative mindset is alive, leading to a society where all institutions
are governed through direct democracy rather than professional boards or
market forces.
In this new society, citizens' engagement and active participation in political
decisions are crucial, with the population playing a direct role in shaping
their own community.
Scenario 1A

83. Scenario 1A
WeTire
We believe that senior years can be a time
of growth and engagement, where
everyone can contribute to a better world.
•Collective pension fund
•Direct democratic approach
•Alternative bottom line
•Regenerative old age

84. Propose and vote for investments
Follow their development
Join universe for volunteers
Scenario 1A

85. My idea, not MitID
In an era dominated by hyper-individualism, people strive to optimize
themselves in all areas, supported by advances in technology.
Everything from work to personal life is designed to cater to individual
needs and desires. It's all highly personalized and data-driven.
This data can be actively utilized by pension companies to create
completely tailored solutions that represent each individual member.
Scenario 2C

86. Pensionalyze
​
Pensionalyze uses advanced
technology to customise your pension
plan based on your personal health
and lifestyle.
•Behavioural pricing
•Tailored coverage
•Preventive treatments and
recommendations
Scenario 2C

87. Scenario 2C
​
Live statistics
​
Flexible and personal
product composition
​
Data history
​
Integration with Strava
and Apple Health

89. Tak!

90. Course
Futures Thinking in Design
​
Time
​
17 Jun - 18 Jun 2024
​
Write to [email protected] to sign up.